Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Concordance between expected and observed bacilloscopy results of clinical forms of leprosy: a 6-year retrospective study in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Operational classification of leprosy based on the number of skin lesions was conceived to screen patients presenting severe forms of the disease to enable their reception of a more intense multidrug regimen without having to undergo lymph smear testing. We evaluated the concordance between operational classification and bacilloscopy to define multibacillary and paucibacillary leprosy. METHODS: We selected 1,213 records of individuals with leprosy, who were untreated (new cases) and admitted to a dermatology clinic in Recife, Brazil, from 2000 to 2005, and who underwent bacteriological examination at diagnosis for ratification of the operational classification. RESULTS: Compared to bacilloscopy, operational classification demonstrated 88.6% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, a positive predictive value of 61.8%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%, with 80% accuracy and a moderate kappa index. Among the bacilloscopy-negative cases, 23% had more than 5 skin lesions. Additionally, 11% of the bacilloscopy-positive cases had up to 5 lesions, which would have led to multibacillary cases being treated as paucibacillary leprosy if the operational classification had not been confirmed by bacilloscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Operational classification has limitations that are more obvious in borderline cases, suggesting that in these cases, lymph smear testing is advisable to enable the selection of true multibacillary cases for more intense treatment, thereby contributing to minimization of resistant strain selection and possible relapse.

The vertical dispersión of Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzi in a forest in southern Brazil suggests that human cases of malaria of simian origin might be expected

By staining females of Anopheles cruzi with fluorescent coloured powders in a forest in the State of Santa Catarina, we showed that they move from canopy to ground and vice-versa to feed. This suggests that in areas where this mosquito is a vector of human and simian malarias sporadic infections of man with monkey plasmodia might be expected.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.