Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer

Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role. In 1982/84 more than half of the women (52.8%) in the Federal Republic of Germany lived to see their eightieth birthdays and almost half of the men (47.3%) lived to see their seventy-fifth. Our biological existence is guaranteed to an extent today that would have been unthinkable a few generations ago. Then, the classic troika of "plague, hunger and war" threatened our forefathers all the time and everywhere. The radical transition from the formerly uncertain to a present-day certain lifetime, which is the result of the repression of "plague, hunger and war", led to unexpected consequences for our living together. Our forefathers were forced to live in closely knit Gemeinschaften in the interest of physical survival and to subordinate their egoistic goals to a common value, but now these pressures have, for the most part, fallen away. Correspondingly, this much more certain EGO has taken center stage. An ever greater number of us chooses to live life as single beings: the number of marriages is lower every year; the number of divorces is on the increase; in Berlin (West) more than half (sic! 52.3%) of all households are already composed on only one person. For the last dozen years the annual number of births in the Federal Republic has been insufficient to ensure population replacement. Not a population explosion but rather the opposite, a population implosion, is our problem. Human beings do not appear to be "social animals", as was axiomatically assumed for so long. They were only forced to behave as such for as long as "plague, hunger and war" forced them to do so. When these life endangering conditions no longer exist and life becomes certain even without their being integrated into a Gemeinschaft then humans suddenly show themselves more and more to be independent single beings. It is not the percentage of the population that is over sixty or sixty-five that is decisive in this context but rather how certain adults perceive their biological lives to be, since they are the ones who organize their lives, who build communities or who are ever more often willing only to enter into means-to-an-end personal unions without lasting or close ties and mutual responsibilities. There are many signs which seem to point to a development in this direction in Brazil as well. More and more adults in Brazil are caught up in the deep-seated transition from an uncertain to a certain lifetime. A third of them die after having reached their sixty-fifth birthday. It therefore seems to me to be high time that one began to give more consideration to the other side of the story in Brazil as well. And who is more suited intensively to consider the long-term perspectives than those engaged in the public health sector in whose competence, after all, such aspects, as "life certainty", "life expectancy" and "age at death" belong?

Trends in healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women between 1998 and 2008

OBJECTIVE To analyze conditional and unconditional healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women.METHODS This cross-sectional study used the intercensal technique to estimate, in the absence of longitudinal data, healthy life expectancy that is conditional and unconditional on the individual’s current health status. The data used were obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (National Household Sample Survey) of 1998, 2003, and 2008. This sample comprised 11,171; 13,694; and 16,259 women aged 65 years or more, respectively. Complete mortality tables from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the years 2001 and 2006 were also used. The definition of health status was based on the difficulty in performing activities of daily living.RESULTS The remaining lifetime was strongly dependent on the current health status of the older women. Between 1998 and 2003, the amount of time lived with disability for healthy women at age 65 was 9.8%. This percentage increased to 66.2% when the women already presented some disability at age 65. Temporal analysis showed that the active life expectancy of the women at age 65 increased between 1998-2003 (19.3 years) and 2003-2008 (19.4 years). However, life years gained have been mainly focused on the unhealthy state.CONCLUSIONS Analysis of conditional and unconditional life expectancy indicated that live years gained are a result of the decline of mortality in unhealthy states. This pattern suggests that there has been no reduction in morbidity among older women in Brazil between 1998 and 2008.

Life expectancy without depression increases among Brazilian older adults

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate life expectancy with and without depressive symptoms in older adults for the years 2000 and 2010. METHODS We evaluated individuals aged 60 years or older (n = 1,862 in 2000 and n = 1,280 in 2010), participants of the Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento (SABE – Health, Wellbeing and Aging) study in in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Depression was measured using the shorter version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15); respondents scoring ≥ 6 were classified as having depression. Estimates of life expectancy with and without depression were obtained using the Sullivan method. RESULTS Data from 2000 indicate that 60-year-old men could expect to live, on average, 14.7 years without depression and 60-year-old women could expect to live 16.5 years without depression. By 2010, life expectancy without depression had increased to 16.7 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Expected length of life with depression differed by sex, with women expected to live more years with depression than men. CONCLUSIONS Between 2000 and 2010, life expectancy without depression in Sao Paulo increased. However, older adults in Brazil, especially older women, still face a serious burden of mental illness.

Nursing concepts and theories

The theory framework of nursing science is built in a dynamic process that arises from practice and is reproduced through research, mainly by analysis and development of concepts and theories. This study presents a theory reflection on nursing knowledge construction and points out subsidies for future studies in the area. The interrelation among theory, research, and clinical practice is required for continuous development of nursing as a profession and science. Ideally, the practice must be based on theory that is validated by research. Therefore, theory, research, and practice affect each other reciprocally and continuously.

Relative contribution of expectancy and immediate arousal to the facilitatory effect of an auditory accessory stimulus

An auditory stimulus speeds up a digital response to a subsequent visual stimulus. This facilitatory effect has been related to the expectancy and the immediate arousal that would be caused by the accessory stimulus. The present study examined the relative contribution of these two influences. In a first and a third experiment a simple reaction time task was used. In a second and fourth experiment a go/no-go reaction time task was used. In each of these experiments, the accessory stimulus preceded the target stimulus by 200 ms for one group of male and female volunteers (G Fix). For another group of similar volunteers (G Var) the accessory stimulus preceded the target stimulus by 200 ms in 25% of the trials, by 1000 ms in 25% of the trials and was not followed by the target stimulus in 50% of the trials (Experiments 1a and 1b) or preceded the target stimulus by 200 ms in 6% of the trials and by 1000 ms in 94% of the trials (Experiments 2a and 2b). There was a facilitatory effect of the accessory stimulus for G Fix in the four experiments. There was also a facilitatory effect of the accessory stimulus at the 200-ms stimulus onset asynchrony for G Var in Experiments 1a and 1b but not in Experiments 2a and 2b. The facilitatory effects observed were larger in the go/no-go task than in the simple task. Taken together, these results suggest that expectancy is much more important than immediate arousal for the improvement of performance caused by an accessory stimulus.

The political role of the State in Cambridge theories of growth and distribution

In this paper we extend Kaldor’s Neo-Pasinetti theorem to the scope of budgetary interventions based on political orientations. First, we take into account a system of taxes and expenditures. Second, we introduce different reaction functions for public spending showing the political role of the State in Cambridge theory of distribution. It turns out that the validity of Kaldorian results depends on the political orientation adopted by government, which diminishes the range of application of the Neo-Pasinetti theorem.

What does the field of International Relations look like in South America?

Abstract This article provides a comprehensive picture of IR in South America by applying content analysis to 7,857 articles published in 35 journals from six South American countries from 2006 to 2014 in order to discover what the predominant theories, methods and research areas in this field are, how scholars tend to combine them in their research designs, and what the profiles of regional journals are, regarding their epistemological, methodological and subject preferences. The findings reveal a predominantly Positivist and largely Qualitative discipline, resembling North American and European IR.

Developing management systems for emerging countries

Application of Western management theories in different contexts has been questioned for several decades. However, there is still no well-defined theoretical framework for understanding management systems in non-industrialized countries. This article provides some guidelines to develop these frameworks by elaborating some of the major characteristics of strategies, structures, decision-makings and management systems in Developing Countries (DC). The analysis showed evidence that the complexity of national environmental forces of DCs has made the application of Western management theories more problematic in these countries. The article concludes that global business firms should realize that it is time to stop transferring these management systems to DCs and trying to adapt their organizations to these systems and that a clinical type of approach may be more effective.

Corporate social responsibility practices at brazilian firms

Corporate Social Responsibility practices have been on the rise in recent years in firms all over the world. Brazil, as one of the most important countries emerging on the international scene, is no exception to this, with more and more firms taking up these practices. The present study focuses on analyzing the corporate social responsibility practices that Brazilian companies engage into. The sample used is comprised of 500 firms grouped by geographical area; the theoretical framework is based on stakeholder and institutional theories; and the technique used for the analysis is the biplot, more specifically the HJ Biplot and cluster analysis. From the results obtained it is possible to infer that the CSR variables corresponding to environmental practices are more closely linked to companies located in the northern areas of Brazil. Social and community practices are related to companies primarily in the southern and northeastern regions of the country.

INTERNATIONALIZATION OF STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES THROUGH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

ABSTRACT State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are created to focus on domestic needs, and yet recent evidence points to increasing outward foreign direct investment by SOEs. Existing International Business (IB) theories focus on efficiency-based motives for internationalization; therefore, they do not fully capture SOEs' internalization dynamics, which are driven largely by political factors and social welfare considerations. We integrate public management and IB theories to develop propositions that combine these questions: why SOEs internationalize; what are their motivations; and what are the main managerial outcomes of SOEs' internationalization. Our findings suggest that SOEs display little hesitancy in entering international markets, and that SOE international expansion is not contradictory with the goals of state-ownership if the purpose is to adjust the company to changing institutional environments both in the domestic and international markets. Our propositions about SOE internationalization are based on an in-depth case study of the outward foreign direct investment conducted by Brazil's Petrobras over the past three decades.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

Monetary channels of social inclusion: a case study of basic income and the Caixa Econômica Federal in Brazil

This article reports evidence of new monetary channels for social inclusion involving basic income policies and the Caixa Econômica Federal, a Brazilian government savings bank. Since the Plano Real (Brazilian currency) and the liberalization of banking in the 1990s, the realization of competitive advantages by the Caixa as social policy agent and the importance of citizenship cards differ from existing theories of bank change, financial inclusion and monetary policy. Multi-method research reveals the importance of 1) political theories of basic income, 2) conceptions of citizenship and social justice, and 3) a back to the future modernization of government banking. This provides alternatives to contemporary market-based banking theory, neo-liberal policies, private and non-governmental microfinance strategies, and theories in political economy about fiscal constraints to social policies. New monetary channels of change also suggest that zero sum theories about politics, monetary authority and social inclusion are amiss.

Rise and fall in ischemic heart disease mortality: it may have happened before

The rise in ischemic heart disease(IHD) mortality occurring mostly during the first half of the 20th century is usually associated with economic development and its consequences for people's lifestyles. On the basis of historical evidence, it is postulated that a previous IHD epidemic cycle may have occurred in England and Wales towards the turn of the nineteenth century. The implications of this on causal theories and current etiological research on atherosclerosis are discussed.

Homicide and impunity: an ecological analysis at state level in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.