Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

Cenários prospectivos para o comércio internacional de etanol em 2020

Há crescentes pressões para que sejam adotados hábitos sustentáveis pela sociedade, o que impacta diversos mercados, incluindo os de energia. Combustíveis fósseis são fontes finitas, não renováveis e responsáveis por emissões consideráveis de CO2 na atmosfera. Nesse contexto, o etanol é apontado com umas das alternativas mais viáveis de fornecimento de energia limpa e renovável. O Brasil possui liderança tecnológica no setor devido ao lançamento do Proálcool na década de 1970. Nos anos 2000, o País despontou novamente na produção do biocombustível, passando a enfrentar concorrência maior de players norte-americanos e da União Europeia. Para o futuro, podem ser apontadas diversas incertezas que o setor enfrentará, sendo a prospecção baseada em cenários uma forma de modelar tais incertezas e auxiliar o desenvolvimento de estratégias robustas para as empresas que pretendem investir no setor. O objetivo neste trabalho foi desenvolver quatro cenários para o comércio internacional de etanol em 2020 e discutir as implicações para as estratégias empresariais. Para tanto, foi utilizado o método de elaboração de cenários em uma abordagem exploratória e qualitativa. Os cenários apresentados no estudo podem ser utilizados por empresas e diferentes stakeholders para testar opções estratégicas e de investimentos no setor de etanol.

Prevalência de tracoma entre escolares brasileiros

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência e descrever a distribuição do tracoma entre escolares em municípios brasileiros.MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, usando amostragem por conglomerados, da população escolar dos municípios brasileiros com Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano-Municipal menor que a média nacional. O inquérito de prevalência de tracoma foi realizado pelo Ministério da Saúde entre 2002 e 2007. Foram selecionados 119.531 alunos de 2.270 escolas localizadas em 1.156 municípios. Os alunos foram submetidos ao exame ocular externo, com lupa (2,5X), para detecção de sinais clínicos de tracoma segundo critérios da OMS. Estimou-se a prevalência de tracoma segundo estado e em nível nacional, e seus respectivos intervalos de 95% de confiança. Para a comparação de variáveis categóricas foram usados os testes do Qui-quadrado e do Qui-quadrado de tendência linear.RESULTADOS: Foram detectados 6.030 casos de tracoma, resultando em prevalência de 5,0% (IC95% 4,5;5,4). Não foi encontrada diferença significante entre os sexos. A prevalência de tracoma foi de 8,2% entre menores de cinco anos de idade, diminuindo nas faixas etárias mais altas (p < 0,01). Houve diferença significante entre as prevalências de tracoma na zona urbana e rural, 4,3% versus 6,2%, respectivamente (p < 0,01). Foram detectados casos em 901 municípios (77,7% da amostra), em todas as regiões do País. Em 36,8% dos municípios selecionados a prevalência foi superior a 5%.CONCLUSÕES: O estudo mostra que o tracoma é um importante problema de saúde pública no Brasil, contradizendo a crença de que a endemia estaria controlada no País. O inquérito realizado apresenta uma linha de base para avaliação das intervenções planejadas com vistas ao alcance da meta mundial de certificação da eliminação do tracoma como causa de cegueira no Brasil, até 2020.

Determinantes prognósticos em pacientes com síndrome coronariana aguda sem elevação do segmento ST

FUNDAMENTO: Em pacientes com Síndromes Coronarianas Agudas (SCA) sem Supradesnivelamento do Segmento ST (SST), sugere-se que uma série de marcadores (células inflamatórias, hiperglicemia e função renal) é capaz de identificar indivíduos com maior risco para eventos cardiovasculares. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o impacto desses parâmetros laboratoriais em desfechos intra-hospitalares de pacientes com SCA sem SST. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados prospectivamente 195 pacientes admitidos consecutivamente com SCA sem SST. Foram registrados dados clínicos, demográficos e laboratoriais ao longo do período de internação no hospital, em relação à ocorrência ou não de eventos combinados. RESULTADOS: A idade média foi de 67 ± 12 anos, e 52% eram homens. Na análise da área sob a curva ROC, somente a razão neutrófilo/linfócito (AUC: 70%, IC95%: 56%-82%, p = 0,006) e a creatinina (AUC: 62%, IC95%: 50%-80%, p = 0,03) discriminaram aqueles pacientes com SCA sem SST que apresentaram algum desfecho. Os pacientes que sofreram algum evento adverso durante a internação apresentaram menores contagens de linfócitos (1502 ± 731 / mm³ vs. 2020 ± 862 / mm³; p = 0,002), menores taxas de filtração glomerular (51 ± 27 mL/min vs. 77±34 mL/min; p < 0,001) e maiores níveis séricos de creatinina (2,1 ± 2,7 mg/dL vs. 1,1 ± 1,3 mg/dL; p = 0,047) do que aqueles que tiveram uma hospitalização sem intercorrências. A análise de regressão logística demonstrou que as variáveis que permaneceram como preditores independentes e significativos foram: taxa de filtração glomerular (OR: 1,03; IC95%: 1,00-1,13; p = 0,002), e contagem de linfócitos (OR: 1,02; IC95%: 1,01-1,04; p = 0,03). CONCLUSÃO: A avaliação da função renal e a contagem de linfócitos fornecem uma informação potencialmente útil para a estratificação prognóstica em doentes com SCA sem SST.

Education to a Healthy Lifestyle Improves Symptoms and Cardiovascular Risk Factors – AsuRiesgo Study

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the current leading causes of death and disability globally. Objective: To assess the effects of a basic educational program for cardiovascular prevention in an unselected outpatient population. Methods: All participants received an educational program to change to a healthy lifestyle. Assessments were conducted at study enrollment and during follow-up. Symptoms, habits, ATP III parameters for metabolic syndrome, and American Heart Association’s 2020 parameters of cardiovascular health were assessed. Results: A total of 15,073 participants aged ≥ 18 years entered the study. Data analysis was conducted in 3,009 patients who completed a second assessment. An improvement in weight (from 76.6 ± 15.3 to 76.4 ± 15.3 kg, p = 0.002), dyspnea on exertion NYHA grade II (from 23.4% to 21.0%) and grade III (from 15.8% to 14.0%) and a decrease in the proportion of current active smokers (from 3.6% to 2.9%, p = 0.002) could be documented. The proportion of patients with levels of triglycerides > 150 mg/dL (from 46.3% to 42.4%, p < 0.001) and LDL cholesterol > 100 mg/dL (from 69.3% to 65.5%, p < 0.001) improved. A ≥ 20% improvement of AHA 2020 metrics at the level graded as poor was found for smoking (-21.1%), diet (-29.8%), and cholesterol level (-23.6%). A large dropout as a surrogate indicator for low patient adherence was documented throughout the first 5 visits, 80% between the first and second assessments, 55.6% between the second and third assessments, 43.6% between the third and fourth assessments, and 38% between the fourth and fifth assessments. Conclusion: A simple, basic educational program may improve symptoms and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, but shows low patient adherence.

Hansen's disease: a vanishing disease?

The introduction, implementation, successes and failures of multidrug therapy (MDT) in all Hansen's disease endemic countries are discussed in this paper. The high efficacy of leprosy treatment with MDT and the global reduction of prevalence led the World Health Organization, in 1991, to establish the goal of elimination of Hansen's disease (less than 1 patient per 10,000 inhabitants) to be accomplished by the year 2000. Brazil, Nepal and East Timor are among the few countries that didn't reach the elimination goal by the year 2000 or even 2005. The implications of these aspects are highlighted in this paper. Current data from endemic and previously endemic countries that carry a regular leprosy control programme show that the important fall in prevalence was not followed by the reduction of the incidence. This means that transmission of Mycobacterium leprae is still an issue. It is reasonable to conclude that we are still far from the most important goal of Hansen's disease control: the interruption of transmission and reduction of incidence. It is necessary to emphasize to health managers the need of keeping Hansen's disease control activities to better develop control programmes in the future. The recent international proposal to interrupt the transmission of leprosy by the year 2020 seems to unrealistic and it is discussed in this paper. The possibility of epidemiological impact related to the human immunodeficiency virus/Hansen's disease coinfection is also considered.

Detection of Wuchereria bancrofti DNA in paired serum and urine samples using polymerase chain reaction-based systems

The Global Program for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to eliminate this disease by the year 2020. However, the development of more specific and sensitive tests is important for the success of the GPELF. The present study aimed to standardise polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based systems for the diagnosis of filariasis in serum and urine. Twenty paired biological urine and serum samples from individuals already known to be positive for Wuchereria bancrofti were collected during the day. Conventional PCR and semi-nested PCR assays were optimised. The detection limit of the technique for purified W. bancrofti DNA extracted from adult worms was 10 fg for the internal systems (WbF/Wb2) and 0.1 fg by using semi-nested PCR. The specificity of the primers was confirmed experimentally by amplification of 1 ng of purified genomic DNA from other species of parasites. Evaluation of the paired urine and serum samples by the semi-nested PCR technique indicated only two of the 20 tested individuals were positive, whereas the simple internal PCR system (WbF/Wb2), which has highly promising performance, revealed that all the patients were positive using both samples. This study successfully demonstrated the possibility of using the PCR technique on urine for the diagnosis of W. bancrofti infection.

Addressing Practical Issues Related Tto Nursing Care For International Visitors To Hiroshima

When nine million foreigners visited Japan in 2013, the federal government set a goal to attract an additional two and a half million visitors including medical tourists by 2020. This research investigates the attitudes and concerns of Japanese nurses when they are in a situation dealing with foreign patients. The data were collected from March through September 2010, from 114 nurses at three hospitals, in close proximity to popular tourist destinations in Hiroshima. A questionnaire was developed for this research, named Mari Meter, which included a section to write answers to an open question for the nurses to express their opinions. These responses were examined statistically and by word analysis using Text Mining Studio. Japanese nurses expressed greatest concern about payment options, foreign language skills, and issues of informed consent, when dealing with foreigners. The results confirm that, in order to provide a high quality of patient care, extra preparation and a greater knowledge of international workers and visitors are required by nursing professionals in Japan.


Strategy of specification of management areas: rice grain yield as related to soil fertility

It is well-known nowadays that soil variability can influence crop yields. Therefore, to determine specific areas of soil management, we studied the Pearson and spatial correlations of rice grain yield with organic matter content and pH of an Oxisol (Typic Acrustox) under no- tillage, in the 2009/10 growing season, in Selvíria, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, in the Brazilian Cerrado (longitude 51º24' 21'' W, latitude 20º20' 56'' S). The upland rice cultivar IAC 202 was used as test plant. A geostatistical grid was installed for soil and plant data collection, with 120 sampling points in an area of 3.0 ha with a homogeneous slope of 0.055 m m-1. The properties rice grain yield and organic matter content, pH and potential acidity and aluminum content were analyzed in the 0-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m soil layers. Spatially, two specific areas of agricultural land management were discriminated, differing in the value of organic matter and rice grain yield, respectively with fertilization at variable rates in the second zone, a substantial increase in agricultural productivity can be obtained. The organic matter content was confirmed as a good indicator of soil quality, when spatially correlated with rice grain yield.

O analfabetismo no brasil sob enfoque demográfico

O artigo discute algumas relações entre dinâmica demográfica e nível educacional da população a partir do indicador taxa de analfabetismo. Demonstra-se que a evolução das taxas totais de analfabetismo no tempo depende tanto da estrutura etária da população quanto da capacidade do sistema de ensino de alfabetizar indivíduos em todas as idades. Com base na análise de projeções das taxas futuras de analfabetismo até 2020 conclui-se que a velocidade atual de crescimento da alfabetização total é baixa e que seu aumento depende de medidas relacionas à educação de jovens e adultos.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.