Handling random errors and biases in methods used for short-term dietary assessment

Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.

Relationship between Brazilian airline pilot errors and time of day

Flight safety is one of the most important and frequently discussed issues in aviation. Recent accident inquiries have raised questions as to how the work of flight crews is organized and the extent to which these conditions may have been contributing factors to accidents. Fatigue is based on physiologic limitations, which are reflected in performance deficits. The purpose of the present study was to provide an analysis of the periods of the day in which pilots working for a commercial airline presented major errors. Errors made by 515 captains and 472 copilots were analyzed using data from flight operation quality assurance systems. To analyze the times of day (shifts) during which incidents occurred, we divided the light-dark cycle (24:00) in four periods: morning, afternoon, night, and early morning. The differences of risk during the day were reported as the ratio of morning to afternoon, morning to night and morning to early morning error rates. For the purposes of this research, level 3 events alone were taken into account, since these were the most serious in which company operational limits were exceeded or when established procedures were not followed. According to airline flight schedules, 35% of flights take place in the morning period, 32% in the afternoon, 26% at night, and 7% in the early morning. Data showed that the risk of errors increased by almost 50% in the early morning relative to the morning period (ratio of 1:1.46). For the period of the afternoon, the ratio was 1:1.04 and for the night a ratio of 1:1.05 was found. These results showed that the period of the early morning represented a greater risk of attention problems and fatigue.

Analysis of translational errors in frame-based and frameless cranial radiosurgery using an anthropomorphic phantom

Abstract Objective: To evaluate three-dimensional translational setup errors and residual errors in image-guided radiosurgery, comparing frameless and frame-based techniques, using an anthropomorphic phantom. Materials and Methods: We initially used specific phantoms for the calibration and quality control of the image-guided system. For the hidden target test, we used an Alderson Radiation Therapy (ART)-210 anthropomorphic head phantom, into which we inserted four 5mm metal balls to simulate target treatment volumes. Computed tomography images were the taken with the head phantom properly positioned for frameless and frame-based radiosurgery. Results: For the frameless technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.22 ± 0.04 mm for setup errors and 0.14 ± 0.02 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 0.28 mm and 0.16 mm, respectively. For the frame-based technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.73 ± 0.14 mm for setup errors and 0.31 ± 0.04 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 1.15 mm and 0.63 mm, respectively. Conclusion: The mean values, standard deviations, and combined uncertainties showed no evidence of a significant differences between the two techniques when the head phantom ART-210 was used.

Comparative evaluation of underlying causes of death processed by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities and the Underlying Cause of Death Selection Systems

INTRODUCTION: The correct identification of the underlying cause of death and its precise assignment to a code from the International Classification of Diseases are important issues to achieve accurate and universally comparable mortality statistics These factors, among other ones, led to the development of computer software programs in order to automatically identify the underlying cause of death. OBJECTIVE: This work was conceived to compare the underlying causes of death processed respectively by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities (ACME) and the "Sistema de Seleção de Causa Básica de Morte" (SCB) programs. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The comparative evaluation of the underlying causes of death processed respectively by ACME and SCB systems was performed using the input data file for the ACME system that included deaths which occurred in the State of S. Paulo from June to December 1993, totalling 129,104 records of the corresponding death certificates. The differences between underlying causes selected by ACME and SCB systems verified in the month of June, when considered as SCB errors, were used to correct and improve SCB processing logic and its decision tables. RESULTS: The processing of the underlying causes of death by the ACME and SCB systems resulted in 3,278 differences, that were analysed and ascribed to lack of answer to dialogue boxes during processing, to deaths due to human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease for which there was no specific provision in any of the systems, to coding and/or keying errors and to actual problems. The detailed analysis of these latter disclosed that the majority of the underlying causes of death processed by the SCB system were correct and that different interpretations were given to the mortality coding rules by each system, that some particular problems could not be explained with the available documentation and that a smaller proportion of problems were identified as SCB errors. CONCLUSION: These results, disclosing a very low and insignificant number of actual problems, guarantees the use of the version of the SCB system for the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases and assures the continuity of the work which is being undertaken for the Tenth Revision version.

Why do we need randomized and epidemiological studies on cardiovascular disease? Evidence-based cardiology VII

Over the last two decades the results of randomized clinical studies, which are powerful aids for correctly assessing therapeutical strategies, have consolidated cardiological practice. In addition, scientifically interesting hypotheses have been generated through the results of epidemiological studies. Properly conducted randomized studies without systematic errors and with statistical power adequate for demonstrating moderate and reasonable benefits in relevant clinical outcomes have provided reliable and strong results altering clinical practice, thus providing adequate treatment for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The dissemination and use of evidence-based medicine in treating coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), and in prevention will prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths annually in developed and developing countries. CVD is responsible for approximately 12 million deaths annually throughout the world, and approximately 60% of these deaths occur in developing countries. During recent years, an increase in mortality and morbidity rates due to CVD has occurred in developing countries. This increase is an indication that an epidemiological (demographic, economical, and health-related) transition is taking place in developing countries and this transition implies a global epidemic of CVD, which will require wide-ranging and globally effective strategies for prevention. The identification of conventional and emerging risk factors for CVD, as well as their management in high-risk individuals, has contributed to the decrease in the mortality rate due to CVD. Through a national collaboration, several multi-center and multinational randomized and epidemiological studies have been carried out throughout Brazil, thus contributing not only to a generalized scientific growth in different Brazilian hospitals but also to the consolidation of an increasingly evidence-based clinical practice.

The association of genetic markers and malaria infection in the Brazilian Western Amazonian region

Almost all individuals (182) belonging to an Amazonian riverine population (Portuchuelo, RO, Brazil) were investigated for ascertaining data on epidemiological aspects of malaria. Thirteen genetic blood polymorphisms were investigated (ABO, MNSs, Rh, Kell, and Duffy systems, haptoglobins, hemoglobins, and the enzymes glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, glyoxalase, phosphoglucomutase, carbonic anhydrase, red cell acid phosphatase, and esterase D). The results indicated that the Duffy system is associated with susceptibility to malaria, as observed in other endemic areas. Moreover, suggestions also arose indicating that the EsD and Rh loci may be significantly associated with resistance to malaria. If statistical type II errors and sample stratification could be ruled out, hypotheses on the existence of a causal mechanism or an unknown closely linked locus involved in susceptibility to malaria infection may explain the present findings.

The literary arts in Hume's science of the fancy

Philosophers have long disagreed about whether poetry, drama, and other literary arts are important to philosophy; and among those who believe that they are important, explanations of that importance have differed greatly. This paper aims to explain and illustrate some of the reasons why Hume found literature to be an important topic for philosophy and philosophers. Philosophy, he holds, can help to explain general and specific literary phenomena, to ground the science of criticism, and to suggest and justify ";principles of art,"; while at the same time literature can provide valuable ";experiments"; for philosophical theorizing and provide it with a model for the science of morals and (in some ways) for philosophy itself. Moreover, the literary arts can not only help one to write better philosophy, in Hume's view; they can also help one to write philosophy better.

Experimental alternatives for evaluation of progenies and clones in eucalyptus breeding programs

The feasibility of using augmented block designs and spatial analysis methods for early stage selection in eucalyptus breeding programs was tested. A total of 113 half-sib progenies of Eucalyptus urophylla and eight clones were evaluated in an 11 x 11 triple lattice experiment at two locations: Posto da Mata (Bahia, Brazil) and São Mateus (Minas Gerais, Brazil). Four checks were randomly allocated within each block. Plots consisted of 15 m long rows containing 6 plants spaced 3 m apart. The girth at breast height (cm/plant) was evaluated at 19 and 26 months of age. Variance analyses were performed according to the following methods: lattice design, randomized complete block design, augmented block design, Papadakis method, moving means method, and check plots. Comparisons among different methods were based on the magnitude of experimental errors and precision of the estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters. General results indicated that augmented block design is useful to evaluate progenies and clones in early selection in eucalyptus breeding programs using moderate and low selection intensities. However, this design is not suitable for estimating genetic and phenotypic parameters due to its low precision. Check plots, nearest neighbour, Papadakis (1937), and moving means methods were efficient in removing the heterogeneity within blocks. These efficiencies were compared to that in lattice analysis for estimation of genetic and phenotypic parameters.

Comparison of maps of spatial variability of soil resistance to penetration constructed with and without covariables using a spatial linear model

A study about the spatial variability of data of soil resistance to penetration (RSP) was conducted at layers 0.0-0.1 m, 0.1-0.2 m and 0.2-0.3 m depth, using the statistical methods in univariate forms, i.e., using traditional geostatistics, forming thematic maps by ordinary kriging for each layer of the study. It was analyzed the RSP in layer 0.2-0.3 m depth through a spatial linear model (SLM), which considered the layers 0.0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m in depth as covariable, obtaining an estimation model and a thematic map by universal kriging. The thematic maps of the RSP at layer 0.2-0.3 m depth, constructed by both methods, were compared using measures of accuracy obtained from the construction of the matrix of errors and confusion matrix. There are similarities between the thematic maps. All maps showed that the RSP is higher in the north region.

Microsatellite instability and cytogenetic survey in myeloid leukemias

Microsatellites are short tandem repeat sequences dispersed throughout the genome. Their instability at multiple genetic loci may result from mismatch repair errors and it occurs in hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer. This instability is also found in many sporadic cancers. In order to evaluate the importance of this process in myeloid leukemias, we studied five loci in different chromosomes of 43 patients, 22 with chronic myelocytic leukemia (CML) in the chronic phase, 7 with CML in blast crisis, and 14 with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), by comparing leukemic DNA extracted from bone marrow and constitutional DNA obtained from buccal epithelial cells. Only one of the 43 patients (2.1%), with relapsed AML, showed an alteration in the allele length at a single locus. Cytogenetic analysis was performed in order to improve the characterization of leukemic subtypes and to determine if specific chromosome aberrations were associated with the presence of microsatellite instability. Several chromosome aberrations were observed, most of them detected at diagnosis and during follow-up of the patients, according to current literature. These findings suggest that microsatellite instability is an infrequent genetic event in myeloid leukemias, adding support to the current view that the mechanisms of genomic instability in solid tumors differ from those observed in leukemias, where specific chromosome aberrations seem to play a major role.

Attention in schizophrenia and in epileptic psychosis

The adaptive behavior of human beings is usually supported by rapid monitoring of outstanding events in the environment. Some investigators have suggested that a primary attention deficit might trigger symptoms of schizophrenia. In addition, researchers have long discussed the relationship between schizophrenia and the schizophrenia-like psychosis of epilepsy (SLPE). On the basis of these considerations, the objective of the present study was to investigate attention performance of patients with both disorders. Patient age was 18 to 60 years, and all patients had received formal schooling for at least four years. Patients were excluded if they had any systemic disease with neurologic or psychiatric comorbidity, or a history of brain surgery. The computer-assisted TAVIS-2R test was applied to all patients and to a control group to evaluate and discriminate between selective, alternating and sustained attention. The TAVIS-2R test is divided into three parts: one for selective attention (5 min), the second for alternating attention (5 min), and the third for the evaluation of vigilance or sustained attention (10 min). The same computer software was used for statistical analysis of reaction time, omission errors, and commission errors. The sample consisted of 36 patients with schizophrenia, 28 with interictal SLPE, and 47 healthy controls. The results of the selective attention tests for both patient groups were significantly lower than that for controls. The patients with schizophrenia and SLPE performed differently in the alternating and sustained attention tests: patients with SLPE had alternating attention deficits, whereas patients with schizophrenia showed deficits in sustained attention. These quantitative results confirmed the qualitative clinical observations for both patient groups, that is, that patients with schizophrenia had difficulties in focusing attention, whereas those with epilepsy showed perseveration in attention focus.

Assessing usual dietary intake in complex sample design surveys: the National Dietary Survey

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) method allows the distributions of usual intake of nutrients and foods to be estimated. This method can be used in complex surveys. However, the user must perform additional calculations, such as balanced repeated replication (BRR), in order to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals for the percentiles and mean from the distribution of usual intake. The objective is to highlight adaptations of the NCI method using data from the National Dietary Survey. The application of the NCI method was exemplified analyzing the total energy (kcal) and fruit (g) intake, comparing estimations of mean and standard deviation that were based on the complex design of the Brazilian survey with those assuming simple random sample. Although means point estimates were similar, estimates of standard error using the complex design increased by up to 60% compared to simple random sample. Thus, for valid estimates of food and energy intake for the population, all of the sampling characteristics of the surveys should be taken into account because when these characteristics are neglected, statistical analysis may produce underestimated standard errors that would compromise the results and the conclusions of the survey.

O uso de pseudopotenciais e modelos HF/MP2/DFT na previsão de freqüências vibracionais em complexos metálicos

Four different pseudopotentials and three methodologies were employed in the calculation of the geometry and the frequencies of metal complexes like [M(NH3)2X2] [X=halogen, M=Zn, Cd], and [Hg(NH3)2]Cl2. The vibrational assignments were carefully checked and compared to the theoretically calculated ones. Graphical procedures were employed to estimate family errors and their average behavior. The calculated results show the SBK-X basis set with the best results for the geometries and calculated frequencies, for individual species and statistical results. Its use is recommend, mainly if the neighborhood atoms are described with similar pseudopotentials. Excellent results were also obtained with the Hay and Wadt pseudopotential.

Caracterização físico-química de queijo prato por espectroscopia no infravermelho e regressão de mínimos quadrados parciais

In this work an analytical methodology for the determination of relevant physicochemical parameters of prato cheese is reported, using infrared spectroscopy (DRIFT) and partial least squares regression (PLS). Several multivariate models were developed, using different spectral regions and preprocessing routines. In general, good precision and accuracy was observed for all studied parameters (fat, protein, moisture, total solids, ashes and pH) with standard deviations comparable with those provided by the conventional methodologies. The implantation of this multivariate routine involves significant analytical advantages, including reduction of cost and time of analysis, minimization of human errors, and elimination of chemical residues.

Comparação entre métodos de quantificação em cromatografia gasosa: um experimento para cursos de química

This article describes an experiment designed to teach quantitative determination in gas chromatography (GC) in Organic and Analytical Chemistry practical classes. The experiment consisted of extracting and analyzing eugenol from clove seeds to perform a quantitative approach aimed at comparing results obtained by external and internal calibration procedures. Therefore, this experiment proved to be very effective tool to enhance students awareness on the need to understand different types of calibration in GC and on how to avoid common experimental errors, and to find the best ways to eliminate their interference during the quantitative analysis phase.