The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Os tricodectideos dos roedores (Mallophaga)

On sait que la plupart des mallophages vivant sur les rongeurs appartiennent à la famille Gyropidae; quelques uns, cependant, qui se trouvent sur les porcs-épics et les "pocket-gophers" d'Amerique, sont des trichodectidés. Au cours de nos travaux, nous avons eu l'opportunité non seulement de collectionner un grand nombre de ces derniers mais aussi d'examiner ceux qui font partie des collections déposées à l'Université de Stanford et au Muséum de Washington, y compris les types de plusieurs espèces. Nous nous sommes rendu compte en même temps, qu'il serait utile de publier un travail sur l'ensemble de ces patasites, dont l'étude laissait à désirer, et nous avons décidé la publication de nos recherches, sans espérer, évidemment, faire paraitre une oeuvre definitive. Nous avons apporté le plus grand soin à l'identification et à la description des anciennes espèces, de façon à permettre à ceux qui n'ont pas accès aux collections de poursuivre l'étude de ces mallophages sur des bases solides, sans engendrer la confusion causée par la description au hasard de nouvelles espèces. Et nous croyons avoir réussi le plus souvent. Certes, il nous a été impossible de reconnaitre Geomydoecus expansus; il y a des restrictions à faire au sujet de l'identification de Geomydoecus californicus, mais sur toutes les autres identifications il n'y a guère de doute.

Laurostrongylus hoineffae n. gen., n. sp., a relict trichostrongylid from an endemic madagascan rodent

A new nematode, the type of a new genus and a new species Laurostrongylus hoineffae, parasitic in the cricetid rodent Gymnuromys roberti in Madagascar, is described. The species belongs to the Graphiidinae subfamily of Trichostrongylidae but some features point to its affinity to certain Libyostrongylinae, especially to two monospecific genera endemic in Madagascar Pararhabdonema and Cnizostrongylus. This ensemble of relict species seems thus to support the concept of a common ancestor for the Libyostrongylinae and Graphidiinae. The two subfamilies were supposed to originate in the Ethipian region. The presence of the three generain Madagascar could either indicate their Madagascan origin or, more likely, a continental origin with an insular niche allowing the preservation of the species.