105 resultados para Empirical Bayes Methods
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.
Resumo:
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.
Resumo:
Evapotranspiration is the process of water loss of vegetated soil due to evaporation and transpiration, and it may be estimated by various empirical methods. This study had the objective to carry out the evaluation of the performance of the following methods: Blaney-Criddle, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, Solar Radiation, Hargreaves-Samani, Makkink, Thornthwaite, Camargo, Priestley-Taylor and Original Penman in the estimation of the potential evapotranspiration when compared to the Penman-Monteith standard method (FAO56) to the climatic conditions of Uberaba, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. A set of 21 years monthly data (1990 to 2010) was used, working with the climatic elements: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and insolation. The empirical methods to estimate reference evapotranspiration were compared with the standard method using linear regression, simple statistical analysis, Willmott agreement index (d) and performance index (c). The methods Makkink and Camargo showed the best performance, with "c" values of 0.75 and 0.66, respectively. The Hargreaves-Samani method presented a better linear relation with the standard method, with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.88.
Resumo:
n plant breeding programs that aim to obtain cultivars with nitrogen (N) use efficiency, the focus is on methods of selection and experimental procedures that present low cost, fast response, high repeatability, and can be applied to a large number of cultivars. Thus, the objectives of this study were to classify maize cultivars regarding their use efficiency and response to N in a breeding program, and to validate the methodology with contrasting doses of the nutrient. The experimental design was a randomized block with the treatments arranged in a split-plot scheme with three replicates and five N doses (0, 30, 60, 120 and 200 kg ha-1) in the plots, and six cultivars in subplots. We compared a method examining the efficiency and response (ER) with two contrasting doses of N. After that, the analysis of variance, mean comparison and regression analysis were performed. In conclusion, the method of the use efficiency and response based on two N levels classifies the cultivars in the same way as the regression analysis, and it is appropriate in plant breeding routine. Thus, it is necessary to identify the levels of N required to discriminate maize cultivars in conditions of low and high N availability in plant breeding programs that aim to obtain efficient and responsive cultivars. Moreover, the analysis of the interaction genotype x environment at experiments with contrasting doses is always required, even when the interaction is not significant.
Resumo:
ABSTRACTAiming to compare three different methods for the determination of organic carbon (OC) in the soil and fractions of humic substances, seventeen Brazilian soil samples of different classes and textures were evaluated. Amounts of OC in the soil samples and the humic fractions were measured by the dichromate-oxidation method, with and without external heating in a digestion block at 130 °C for 30 min; by the loss-on-ignition method at 450 °C during 5 h and at 600 °C during 6 h; and by the dry combustion method. Dry combustion was used as reference in order to measure the efficiency of the other methods. Soil OC measured by the dichromate-oxidation method with external heating had the highest efficiency and the best results comparing to the reference method. When external heating was not used, the mean recovery efficiency dropped to 71%. The amount of OC was overestimated by the loss-on-ignition methods. Regression equations obtained between total OC contents of the reference method and those of the other methods showed relatively good adjustment, but all intercepts were different from zero (p < 0.01), which suggests that more accuracy can be obtained using not one single correction factor, but considering also the intercept. The Walkley-Black method underestimated the OC contents of the humic fractions, which was associated with the partial oxidation of the humin fraction. Better results were obtained when external heating was used. For the organic matter fractions, the OC in the humic and fulvic acid fractions can be determined without external heating if the reference method is not available, but the humin fraction requires the external heating.
Resumo:
ABSTRACT Soils of tropical regions are more weathered and in need of conservation managements to maintain and improve the quality of its components. The objective of this study was to evaluate the availability of K, the organic matter content and the stock of total carbon of an Argisol after vinasse application and manual and mechanized harvesting of burnt and raw sugarcane, in western São Paulo.The data collection was done in the 2012/2013 harvest, in a bioenergy company in Presidente Prudente/SP. The research was arranged out following a split-plot scheme in a 5x5 factorial design, characterized by four management systems: without vinasse application and harvest without burning; with vinasse application and harvest without burning; with vinasse application and harvest after burning; without vinasse application and harvest after burning; plus native forest, and five soil sampling depths (0-10 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-50 cm), with four replications. In each treatment, the K content in the soil and accumulated in the remaining dry biomass in the area, the levels of organic matter, organic carbon and soil carbon stock were determined. The mean values were compared by Tukey test. The vinasse application associated with the harvest without burning increased the K content in soil layers up to 40 cm deep. The managements without vinasse application and manual harvest after burning, and without vinasse application with mechanical harvesting without burning did not increase the levels of organic matter, organic carbon and stock of total soil organic carbon, while the vinasse application and harvest after burning and without burning increased the levels of these attributes in the depth of 0-10 cm.
Resumo:
ABSTRACT The objective of this work was to study the distribution of values of the coefficient of variation (CV) in the experiments of papaya crop (Carica papaya L.) by proposing ranges to guide researchers in their evaluation for different characters in the field. The data used in this study were obtained by bibliographical review in Brazilian journals, dissertations and thesis. This study considered the following characters: diameter of the stalk, insertion height of the first fruit, plant height, number of fruits per plant, fruit biomass, fruit length, equatorial diameter of the fruit, pulp thickness, fruit firmness, soluble solids and internal cavity diameter, from which, value ranges were obtained for the CV values for each character, based on the methodology proposed by Garcia, Costa and by the standard classification of Pimentel-Gomes. The results obtained in this study indicated that ranges of CV values were different among various characters, presenting a large variation, which justifies the necessity of using specific evaluation range for each character. In addition, the use of classification ranges obtained from methodology of Costa is recommended.
Resumo:
As stated by the New Institutional Economics theory, transaction costs play a relevant role in economics and, according to the extent of such costs, agents make investment decisions. Actually, transaction costs may represent a disincentive to entrepreneurship. This work aims to verify whether transaction costs are related to investment rate and foreign direct investment rate (FDI) in different business environments. The results suggest that foreign investors do not have precise information about other countries as domestic investors do; as it is observed, only the relation between transaction costs and investment rate is significant. Furthermore, there is evidence that the business environments of BRIC countries are less developed when compared to business environments of other countries in the study
Resumo:
This article jointly examines the differences of laboratory versions of the Dutch clock open auction, a sealed-bid auction to represent book building, and a two-stage sealed bid auction to proxy for the “competitive IPO”, a recent innovation used in a few European equity initial public offerings. We investigate pricing, seller allocation, and buyer welfare allocation efficiency and conclude that the book building emulation seems to be as price efficient as the Dutch auction, even after investor learning, whereas the competitive IPO is not price efficient, regardless of learning. The competitive IPO is the most seller allocative efficient method because it maximizes offer proceeds. The Dutch auction emerges as the most buyer welfare allocative efficient method. Underwriters are probably seeking pricing efficiency rather than seller or buyer welfare allocative efficiency and their discretionary pricing and allocation must be important since book building is prominent worldwide.
Resumo:
Epidemiological studies of drug misusers have until recently relied on two main forms of sampling: probability and convenience. The former has been used when the aim was simply to estimate the prevalence of the condition and the latter when in depth studies of the characteristics, profiles and behaviour of drug users were required, but each method has its limitations. Probability samples become impracticable when the prevalence of the condition is very low, less than 0.5% for example, or when the condition being studied is a clandestine activity such as illicit drug use. When stratified random samples are used, it may be difficult to obtain a truly representative sample, depending on the quality of the information used to develop the stratification strategy. The main limitation of studies using convenience samples is that the results cannot be generalised to the whole population of drug users due to selection bias and a lack of information concerning the sampling frame. New methods have been developed which aim to overcome some of these difficulties, for example, social network analysis, snowball sampling, capture-recapture techniques, privileged access interviewer method and contact tracing. All these methods have been applied to the study of drug misuse. The various methods are described and examples of their use given, drawn from both the Brazilian and international drug misuse literature.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To test discriminant analysis as a method of turning the information of a routine customer satisfaction survey (CSS) into a more accurate decision-making tool. METHODS: A 7-question, 10-multiple choice, self-applied questionnaire was used to study a sample of patients seen in two outpatient care units in Valparaíso, Chile, one of primary care (n=100) and the other of secondary care (n=249). Two cutting points were considered in the dependent variable (final satisfaction score): satisfied versus unsatisfied, and very satisfied versus all others. Results were compared with empirical measures (proportion of satisfied individuals, proportion of unsatisfied individuals and size of the median). RESULTS: The response rate was very high, over 97.0% in both units. A new variable, medical attention, was revealed, as explaining satisfaction at the primary care unit. The proportion of the total variability explained by the model was very high (over 99.4%) in both units, when comparing satisfied with unsatisfied customers. In the analysis of very satisfied versus all other customers, significant relationship was identified only in the case of the primary care unit, which explained a small proportion of the variability (41.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Discriminant analysis identified relationships not revealed by the previous analysis. It provided information about the proportion of the variability explained by the model. It identified non-significant relationships suggested by empirical analysis (e.g. the case of the relation very satisfied versus others in the secondary care unit). It measured the contribution of each independent variable to the explanation of the variation of the dependent one.
Resumo:
Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To analyze the sociocultural aspects involved in the decision-making process of vaccination in upper-class and highly educated families.METHODS A qualitative approach based on in-depth interviews with 15 couples from the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, falling into three categories: vaccinators, late or selective vaccinators, and nonvaccinators. The interpretation of produced empirical material was performed through content analysis.RESULTS The study showed diverse and particular aspects surrounding the three groups’ decisions whether to vaccinate their children. The vaccinators’ decision to vaccinate their children was spontaneous and raised no questions. Most late or selective vaccinators experienced a wide range of situations that were instrumental in the decision to delay or not apply certain vaccines. The nonvaccinator’s decision-making process expressed a broader context of both criticism of hegemonic obstetric practices in Brazil and access to information transmitted via social networks and the internet. The data showed that the problematization of vaccines (culminating in the decision to not vaccinate their children) occurred in the context of humanized birth, was protagonized by women and was greatly influenced by health information from the internet.CONCLUSIONS Sociocultural aspects of the singular Brazilian context and the contemporary society were involved in the decision-making on children’s vaccination. Understanding this process can provide a real basis for a deeper reflection on health and immunization practices in Brazil in light of the new contexts and challenges of the world today.