72 resultados para Efficient estimation

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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In this paper we show how to obtain efficient designs of experiments for fitting Michaelis-Menten and Hill equations useful in chemical studies. The search of exact D-optimal designs by using local and pseudo-Bayesian approaches is considered. Optimal designs were compared to those commonly used in practice using an efficiency measure and theoretical standard errors of the kinetic parameter estimates. In conclusion, the D-optimal designs based on the Hill equation proved efficient for estimating the parameters of both models. Furthermore, these are promising with respect to practical issues, allowing efficient estimation as well as goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons between some kinetic models.

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One approach to verify the adequacy of estimation methods of reference evapotranspiration is the comparison with the Penman-Monteith method, recommended by the United Nations of Food and Agriculture Organization - FAO, as the standard method for estimating ET0. This study aimed to compare methods for estimating ET0, Makkink (MK), Hargreaves (HG) and Solar Radiation (RS), with Penman-Monteith (PM). For this purpose, we used daily data of global solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed for the year 2010, obtained through the automatic meteorological station, with latitude 18° 91' 66" S, longitude 48° 25' 05" W and altitude of 869m, at the National Institute of Meteorology situated in the Campus of Federal University of Uberlandia - MG, Brazil. Analysis of results for the period were carried out in daily basis, using regression analysis and considering the linear model y = ax, where the dependent variable was the method of Penman-Monteith and the independent, the estimation of ET0 by evaluated methods. Methodology was used to check the influence of standard deviation of daily ET0 in comparison of methods. The evaluation indicated that methods of Solar Radiation and Penman-Monteith cannot be compared, yet the method of Hargreaves indicates the most efficient adjustment to estimate ETo.

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In search of an efficient but simple, low cost procedure for the serodiagnosis of Toxoplasmosis, especially suited for routine laboratories facing technical and budget limitations as in less developed countries, the diagnostic capability of Hematoxo® , an hemagglutination test for toxoplasmosis, was evaluated in relation to a battery of tests including IgG- and IgM-immunofluorescence tests, hemagglutination and an IgM-capture enzymatic assay. Detecting a little as 5 I.U. of IgG antitoxoplasma antibodies, Hematoxo® showed a straight agreement as to reactivity and non-reactivity for the 443 non-reactive and the 387 reactive serum samples, included in this study. In 23 cases presenting a serological pattern of acute toxoplasmosis and showing IgM antibodies, Hematoxo® could detect IgM antibodies in 18, indicated by negativation or a significant decrease in titers as a result of treating samples with 2-mercapto-ethanol. However, a neat increase in sensitivity for IgM specific antibodies could be achieved by previously removing IgG from the sample, as demonstrated in a series of acute toxoplasmosis sera. A simple procedure was developed for this purpose, by reconstituting a lyophilized suspension of Protein A - rich Staphylococcus with the lowest serum dilution to be tested. Of low cost and easy to perform, Hematoxo® affords not only a practical qualitative procedure for screening reactors and non-reactors, as in prenatal services, but also quantitative assays that permit to titrate antibodies as well as to identify IgM antibodies.

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Acute infections by the protozoan Toxoplasma gondii during pregnancy (gestational toxoplasmosis) are known to cause serious health problems to the fetus (congenital toxoplasmosis). In Brasília, there have been few studies on the incidence of toxoplasmosis. This report summarizes a retrospective study performed on 2,636 selected pregnant women attended by the public health system of Guará, a satellite-city of Brasília. In this survey, 17 cases of gestational toxoplasmosis were detected; 15 of which were primary maternal infection and the remaining 2 were consistent with secondary maternal infection. These results suggest an annual seroconversion rate of 0.64 percent (90 percent confidence interval: 0.38, 0.90).

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Many texture measures have been developed and used for improving land-cover classification accuracy, but rarely has research examined the role of textures in improving the performance of aboveground biomass estimations. The relationship between texture and biomass is poorly understood. This paper used Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to explore relationships between TM image textures and aboveground biomass in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon. Eight grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) based texture measures (i.e., mean, variance, homogeneity, contrast, dissimilarity, entropy, second moment, and correlation), associated with seven different window sizes (5x5, 7x7, 9x9, 11x11, 15x15, 19x19, and 25x25), and five TM bands (TM 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7) were analyzed. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to analyze texture and biomass relationships. This research indicates that most textures are weakly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but some textures are significantly correlated with mature forest biomass. In contrast, TM spectral signatures are significantly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but weakly correlated with mature forest biomass. Our findings imply that textures may be critical in improving mature forest biomass estimation, but relatively less important for successional vegetation biomass estimation.

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We compared the influence of the bug density in the capacity of Triatoma infestans and Panstrongylus megistus in obtaining blood meal in non anaesthetized mice. The regression anlysis for increase in body weight (mg) versus density (no. of bugs/mouse) showed that in experiments with anaesthetized mice (AM), no correlation was observed. In experiments with non anaesthetized mice (NAM) the weight increase was inversely proportional to density. The regression slope for blood meal size on density was less steep for T. infestans than for P. megistus (-1.9 and -3.0, respectively). The average weight increase of P. megistus nymphus in experiments with AM was higher than for T. infestans nymphs; however, in experiments with NAM such results were inverted. Mortality of P. megistus was significantly higher than of T. infestans with NAM. However, in experiments with AM very low mortality was observed. Considering the mortality and the slope of regression line on NAM, T. infestans is more efficient than P. megistus in obtaining blood meal in similar densities, possibly because it caused less irritation of the mice. The better exploitation of blood source of T. infestans when compared with P. megistus in similar densities, favours the maintenance of a better nutritional status in higher densities. This could explain epidemiological findings in which T. infestans not only succeeds in establishing larger colonies but also dislodges P. megistus in human dwellings when it is introduced in areas where the latter species prevails.

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Allele frequencies at seven polymorphic loci controlling the synthesis of enzymes were analyzed in six populations of Culex pipiens L. and Cx. quinquefasciatus Say. Sampling sites were situated along a north-south line of about 2,000 km in Argentina. The predominant alleles at Mdh, Idh, Gpdh and Gpi loci presented similar frequencies in all the samples. Frequencies at the Pgm locus were similar for populations pairs sharing the same geographic area. The loci Cat and Hk-1 presented significant geographic variation. The latter showed a marked latitudinal cline, with a frequency for allele b ranging from 0.99 in the northernmost point to 0.04 in the southernmost one, a pattern that may be explained by natural selection (FST = 0.46; p < 0.0001) on heat sensitive alleles. The average value of FST (0.088) and Nm (61.12) indicated a high gene flow between adjacent populations. A high correlation was found between genetic and geographic distance (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). The highest genetic identity (IN = 0.988) corresponded to the geographically closest samples from the central area. In one of these localities Cx. quinquefasciatus was predominant and hybrid individuals were detected, while in the other, almost all the specimens were identified as Cx. pipiens. To verify the fertility between Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus from the northern- and southernmost populations, experimental crosses were performed. Viable egg rafts were obtained from both reciprocal crosses. Hatching ranged from 76.5 to 100%. The hybrid progenies were fertile through two subsequent generations

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The increase of malaria transmission in the Pacific Coast of Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño warm event has been found not to be linked to increases in the density of the vector Anopheles albimanus, but to other temperature-sensitive variables such as longevity, duration of the gonotrophic cycle or the sporogonic period of Plasmodium. The present study estimated the effects of temperature on duration of the gonotrophic cycle and on maturation of the ovaries of An. albimanus. Blood fed adult mosquitoes were exposed to temperatures of 24, 27, and 30°C, held individually in oviposition cages and assessed at 12 h intervals. At 24, 27, and 30°C the mean development time of the oocytes was 91.2 h (95% C.I.: 86.5-96), 66.2 h (61.5-70.8), and 73.1 h (64-82.3), respectively. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle for these three temperatures was 88.4 h (81.88-94.9), 75 h (71.4-78.7), and 69.1 h (64.6-73.6) respectively. These findings indicate that both parameters in An. albimanus are reduced when temperatures rose from 24 to 30°C, in a nonlinear manner. According to these results the increase in malaria transmission during El Niño in Colombia could be associated with a shortening of the gonotrophic cycle in malaria vectors, which could enhance the frequency of man-vector contact, affecting the incidence of the disease.

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Schistosomes are endoparasites causing a serious human disease called schistosomiasis. The quantification of parasite genetic diversity is an essential component to understand the schistosomiasis epidemiology and disease transmission patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel assay for a rapid, low costly and efficient DNA extraction method of egg, larval and adult stages of Schistosoma mansoni. One euro makes possible to perform 60,000 DNA extraction reactions at top speed (only 15 min of incubation and 5 handling steps).

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In 2008, we have celebrated the centenary of the discovery of Toxoplasma gondii.Although this ubiquitous protozoan can generate devastating damage in foetuses and newborns, its treatment is the only field in which we have made little progress, despite a huge body of research, and has not yet been validated. Pregnant women who seroconvert are generally given spiramycine in order to reduce the risk of vertical transmission. However, to date, we have no evidence of the efficacy of this treatment because no randomized controlled trials have as yet been conducted. When foetal contamination is demonstrated, pyrimethamine, in association with sulfadoxine or sulfadiazine, is normally prescribed, but the effectiveness of this treatment remains to be shown. With regard to postnatal treatment, opinions vary considerably in terms of drugs, regimens and length of therapy. Similarly, we do not have clear evidence to support routine antibiotic treatment of acute ocular toxoplasmosis. We must be aware that pregnant women and newborns are currently being given empirically potentially toxic drugs that have no proven benefit. We must make progress in this field through well-designed collaborative studies and by drawing the attention of policy makers to this disastrous and unsustainable situation.

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Distribution, abundance, feeding behaviour, host preference, parity status and human-biting and infection rates are among the medical entomological parameters evaluated when determining the vector capacity of mosquito species. To evaluate these parameters, mosquitoes must be collected using an appropriate method. Malaria is primarily transmitted by anthropophilic and synanthropic anophelines. Thus, collection methods must result in the identification of the anthropophilic species and efficiently evaluate the parameters involved in malaria transmission dynamics. Consequently, human landing catches would be the most appropriate method if not for their inherent risk. The choice of alternative anopheline collection methods, such as traps, must consider their effectiveness in reproducing the efficiency of human attraction. Collection methods lure mosquitoes by using a mixture of olfactory, visual and thermal cues. Here, we reviewed, classified and compared the efficiency of anopheline collection methods, with an emphasis on Neotropical anthropophilic species, especially Anopheles darlingi, in distinct malaria epidemiological conditions in Brazil.

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Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.

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ABSTRACT Biomass is a fundamental measure for understanding the structure and functioning (e.g. fluxes of energy and nutrients in the food chain) of aquatic ecosystems. We aim to provide predictive models to estimate the biomass of Triplectides egleri Sattler, 1963, in a stream in Central Amazonia, based on body and case dimensions. We used body length, head-capsule width, interocular distance and case length and width to derive biomass estimations. Linear, exponential and power regression models were used to assess the relationship between biomass and body or case dimensions. All regression models used in the biomass estimation of T. egleri were significant. The best fit between biomass and body or case dimensions was obtained using the power model, followed by the exponential and linear models. Body length provided the best estimate of biomass. However, the dimensions of sclerotized structures (interocular distance and head-capsule width) also provided good biomass predictions, and may be useful in estimating biomass of preserved and/or damaged material. Case width was the dimension of the case that provided the best estimate of biomass. Despite the low relation, case width may be useful in studies that require low stress on individuals.

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Two methods were evaluated for scaling a set of semivariograms into a unified function for kriging estimation of field-measured properties. Scaling is performed using sample variances and sills of individual semivariograms as scale factors. Theoretical developments show that kriging weights are independent of the scaling factor which appears simply as a constant multiplying both sides of the kriging equations. The scaling techniques were applied to four sets of semivariograms representing spatial scales of 30 x 30 m to 600 x 900 km. Experimental semivariograms in each set successfully coalesced into a single curve by variances and sills of individual semivariograms. To evaluate the scaling techniques, kriged estimates derived from scaled semivariogram models were compared with those derived from unscaled models. Differences in kriged estimates of the order of 5% were found for the cases in which the scaling technique was not successful in coalescing the individual semivariograms, which also means that the spatial variability of these properties is different. The proposed scaling techniques enhance interpretation of semivariograms when a variety of measurements are made at the same location. They also reduce computational times for kriging estimations because kriging weights only need to be calculated for one variable. Weights remain unchanged for all other variables in the data set whose semivariograms are scaled.

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In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using the C-band European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to estimate surface soil roughness in a semiarid rangeland. Radar backscattering coefficients were extracted from a dry and a wet season SAR image and were compared with 47 in situ soil roughness measurements obtained in the rocky soils of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, southeastern Arizona, USA. Both the dry and the wet season SAR data showed exponential relationships with root mean square (RMS) height measurements. The dry C-band ERS-1 SAR data were strongly correlated (R² = 0.80), while the wet season SAR data have somewhat higher secondary variation (R² = 0.59). This lower correlation was probably provoked by the stronger influence of soil moisture, which may not be negligible in the wet season SAR data. We concluded that the single configuration C-band SAR data is useful to estimate surface roughness of rocky soils in a semiarid rangeland.