CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

On occurrence, habitat specificity and natural history of adult tiger beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae: Cicindelinae) near Manaus, Central Amazonia, and key to the larvae of tiger beetle genera

Over a seven year period from 1991 to 1997, 22 species of tiger beetles, representing nine genera, were recorded near Manaus, Brazil. In the Whitewaterfloodplains along the Rio Solimões-Amazonas (Ilha de Marchantaria), three diurnal species inhabit inundation forests and six species (two diurnal, four nocturnal) live in open areas. Data on their natural history and adaptation to living conditions in floodplains are presented. Fifteen species were located on non-flooded uplands (Reserva Florestal A. Ducke). Five diurnal species inhabit the forest floor, two species are canopy dwellers, and eight species (seven diurnal, one nocturnal) live in open areas on whitesand or laterite. Only one species, Pentacomia lacordairei, was found in both floodplain and upland forests. A key to the larvae of tiger beetle genera located near Manaus is presented.

Contribution to Early Holocene vegetation and climate history of Eastern Orinoco Llanos, Venezuela, from a paleoecological record of a Mauritia L.f. swamp

A palynological analysis of an organic paleosol found at 150-125 cm depth in a Mauritia swamp from the Eastern Orinoco Llanos is presented. The 25 cm pollen record summarizes the vegetation history during the Early Holocene, from 10,225 to 7,800 calendar yr BP. The vegetation was characterized by a Poaceae marsh, where Asteraceae, Melastomataceae, Schefflera-type and Phyllanthus were the most abundant shrubs and trees. Pollen-types richness was lower than that recorded today in similar environments, and Mauritia pollen was absent. Results suggest that climate was as humid as present during the beginning of the Holocene, with a decreasing trend in humidity from around 8,000-7,000 yr BP, in coincidence with the beginning of the "Early-Mid-Holocene Dryness" that affected deeply the Amazon Basin and neighboring areas. Dry climatic conditions could have existed in the study site until the Mid-Late Holocene when a Mauritia swamp developed, and humid conditions similar to present established. Main climate phases inferred in our study site fit well with regional trends recorded in other places located north Amazon Basin. However, conclusions are still limited by the lack of additional Quaternary records in the Orinoco Llanos area, avoiding regional correlations.

Ecology and natural history of Akodon lindberghi (Rodentia, Sigmodontinae) in southeastern Brazil

We studied the ecology and natural history of the globally threatened and poorly known Akodon lindberghi Hershkovitz, 1990 in Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra (PNSC) and Juiz de Fora (JF), southeastern Brazil. From November 1998 to September 2001 a total of 131 individuals were captured in wire-cage live-traps and 52 by pitfalls traps. They were all marked and released at the site. The largest abundances were registered during the dry season, and most of the captures occurred in open habitats. The mean body mass of the two populations was significantly different (18.1 g at PNSC versus 13.1 g at JF; H = 46.2678, g.l.=2, p<0.001). In PNSC, individuals were reproductively active from August to February, and juveniles were present from May to August. The results suggest that the changes in vegetation structure caused by deforestation and intensive agricultural activities could increase the predation rate, affecting the mean body mass of the population.

On the taxonomy of Latonigena auricomis (Araneae, Gnaphosidae), with notes of geographical distribution and natural history

The male of Latonigena auricomis Simon, 1893 is described for the first time and the female is redescribed. New records are provided for Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Notes on the natural history and a potential distribution model of the species are presented in the Neotropical Region.

On the immature stages and natural history of Gonioterma exquisita Duckworth (Lepidoptera, Elachistidae, Stenomatinae)

In the present work the natural history and immature stages of Gonioterma exquisita Duckworth, 1964 of the Brazilian cerrado region are described. The caterpillars are external folivorous feeders and present a diet restricted to pubescent-leaved host plants of the genus Byrsonima Rich. (Malpighiaceae). They are solitary caterpillars and they build a hard individual shelter that looks like a planorbid shell, made from silk and frass, covered with trichomes and silk, where they develop until the last larval instar on the host plant, and remain inside it until the adult emergence on herbaceous stratum. The larval development presented eight instars. Egg, larval head capsules, instar duration, pupa, shelter, and behavior are also described. Diapause is mentioned for the first time in this species.

Description and life history of a new cecidogenous species of Palaeomystella Fletcher (Lepidoptera, Momphidae) from Brazil

ABSTRACTMale, female, pupa, and last-instar larva of Palaeomystella beckeri (Moreira and Basilio) a new species from the Atlantic forest, southern Brazil, are described and illustrated with the aid of optical and scanning electron microscopy. Larvae induce galls on apical branches of Tibouchina trichopoda (DC.) Baill. (Melastomataceae) within which pupation occurs. Gall description and preliminary data on life history are also provided.

A morphological reappraisal of the immature stages and life history of Elachista synethes Meyrick (Lepidoptera, Elachistidae), an Australian leaf miner alien to Chile

ABSTRACT Elachista synethes was recently recognized as an alien species in northern Chile, where its larvae mine the rescue grass Bromus catharticus (Poaceae). In order to provide the necessary information to allow field detection of E. synethes during early ontogeny, we conducted a morphological reappraisal of the immature stages of this leaf-miner moth, based on light and scanning electron microscopy, including the first descriptions of the egg and the first-instar larva. This is the first report of the existence of an apodal early larva for a species of Elachista Treitschke. The legs and prolegs are absent in the first two instars, but are well developed in the last two. Additional observations on the life history are also provided, including a description of the mine.

Population ecology of Paepalanthus polyanthus (Bong.) Kunth: demography and life history of a sand dune monocarpic plant

Aspects of population dynamics and life history of Paepalanthus polyanthus (Bong.) Kunth, a sand dune monocarpic plant, were evaluated. A five year study was carried out on three permanent plots (5 m x 5 m) in a sand dune slack at Joaquina beach, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. From December 1986 to June 1989, the population decreased due to the death of the post reproductive plants and a low emergence of seedlings. In June 1989, a great recruitment occurred, but no plants survived. The population re-established itself by 1990-1991. The emergence and high survival of seedlings depended on periods of high pluviosity. Nevertheless, the summer flooding and episodes of drought represented key factors in mortality. The birth and mortality rates varied among the areas. It is suggested that these differences are related with depth of the ground water and with vegetation cover at each site. Paepalanthus polyanthus can reproduce in the second year of life, but few plants do this. The chances of survival and reproduction increase with the size of the basal leaf rosette. Although the production of seeds increases with size, the risk of unexpected flooding, for instance, suggest that a great delay in reproduction might not be the most favorable strategy.

Relation of cervical length at 22-24 weeks of gestation to demographic characteristics and obstetric history

Preterm delivery is the main cause of neonatal death and ultrasonographic cervical assessment has been shown to be more accurate than digital examination in recognizing a short cervix. This is a cross-sectional study, involving 1131 women at 22-24 weeks of pregnancy, designed to determine the distribution of cervical length and to examine which variables of demographic characteristics and obstetric history increase the risk of a short cervix (15 mm or less). The distribution of maternal demographic and obstetric history characteristics among patients with cervical length £15 mm was analyzed and compared to the findings for the general population. Risk ratios (RR) between subgroups were generated from this comparison. Median cervical length was 37 mm and in 1.5% of cases it was 15 mm or less. The proportion of women with a short cervix (<=15 mm) was significantly higher among patients with a low body mass index (RR = 3.5) and in those with previous fetal losses between 16-23 weeks (RR = 33.1) or spontaneous preterm deliveries between 24-32 weeks (RR = 14.1). We suggest that transvaginal sonographic measurement of cervical length be performed as part of a routine midtrimester ultrasound evaluation. There are specific variables of demographic characteristics and obstetric history which increase the risk of detecting a short cervix at 22-24 weeks.

Chronic macro-economic and financial imbalances in the world economy: a meta-economic view

Global finance, combining offshore banking and universal banks to drive a broader globalization process, has transformed the modus operandi of the world economy. This requires a new "meta-economic" framework in which short-term portfolio-investment flows are treated as the dominant phenomenon they have become. Organized by global finance, these layered bi-directional flows between center and periphery manage a tension between financial concentration and monetary fragmentation. The resulting imbalances express the asymmetries built into that tension and render the exchange rate a more strategic policy variable than ever.