Estimation of alluvial recharge in the semiarid

In areas where there is irrigated agriculture, the recuperation of water reserves in alluvial aquifers may occur preferentially due to precipitation. Recharging can be evaluated from variation information of water depth measured in piezometers or observation wells. Thus, the aim of this research is to study the recharge in the alluvial aquifer formed by the Mimoso temporary stream in the semiarid region of Pernambuco (PE), Brazil, using the method of the fluctuation of the water level. This system is typical on the Brazilian Northeast semiarid region, using groundwater for domestic supply and for irrigation on small scale agriculture. Monthly potentiometric levels and rainfall data were used. The selected period for the study, from January 2002 to October 2009, involved extreme events of flooding and droughts as well as regular years, providing a better understanding of the behavior of the alluvial recharge. It was found that the system responds significantly to precipitation events. It was also observed that even with different soil textures in the study area, recharge factors were not significantly different. The study provided a better understanding of the behavior of aquifer recharge and its relationship with the soil and the rainfall events in the region.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Dry months in the agricultural region of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo-Brazil: an study based on the extreme value theory

The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.

Acellular and "low" pertussis vaccines: adverse events and the role of mutations

Objective: to discuss the current PAHO recommendation that does not support the substitution of traditional cellular DTP vaccine by acellular DTP, and the role of mutations, in humans, as the main cause of rare adverse events, such as epileptic-like convulsions, triggered by pertussis vaccine. Data review: the main components related to toxic effects of cellular pertussis vaccines are the lipopolysaccharide of bacterial cell wall and pertussis toxin. The removal of part of lipopolysaccharide layer has allowed the creation of a safer cellular pertussis vaccine, with costs comparable to the traditional cellular vaccine, and which may be a substitute for the acellular vaccine. Conclusion: The new methodology introduced by Instituto Butantan allows for the development of a new safer pertussis vaccine with low LPS content (Plow), and the use of the lipopolysaccharide obtained in the process in the production of monophosphoryl lipid A. This component has shown potent adjuvant effect when administered together with influenza inactivated vaccine, making possible to reduce the antigen dose, enhancing the production capacity and lowering costs.

Spontaneous reporting of adverse events following pandemic influenza A (H1N1) immunization in a reference center in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction This paper describes adverse events (AEs) temporally associated to the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine observed in a reference center in São Paulo, Brazil, during a 2010 mass vaccination campaign. Methods A retrospective study involving persons who sought medical care for AEs following influenza vaccination. Data were retrieved from medical records, vaccine AE notification forms, and a computerized system for immunobiological registration. Results Sixty-six vaccinees sought medical care for AEs after immunization. The most frequent AEs were fever, headache, myalgia, and pain at the injection site. No serious AEs were reported. Conclusions Few vaccinees spontaneously reported AEs to influenza A (H1N1) vaccine at this center.

Adverse life events and coping skills in panic disorder

Research literature and clinical experience shows that panic patients are often able to identify stressors that preceded the onset of their first attacks. In this study we investigated the relation between life events, coping skills, and panic disorder. METHODS: Forty-tree panic patients were compared with 29 control subjects regarding the occurrence and the impact of stressful life events in a 1-year period preceding the onset of panic attacks using the Social Readjustment Rating Scale and London Life Event and Difficulty Schedule. Coping skills were measured using the Ways of Coping Questionnaire. RESULTS: No differences were observed between panic patients and controls regarding the number of reported stressful life events in the previous year. Panic patients compared to controls reported loss of social support as the most meaningful class of events significantly more often. In response to stressful situations, panic patients more often used coping skills judged as ineffective. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that the type of life event and the coping skills used in response to them, more than the occurrence of stressful events itself, may be associated with the onset of panic disorder.

On the isotopic composition of precipitation in tropical stations (*).

Some of the trends and characteristics of the isotopic composition oh precipitation in tropical stations are discussed. Stations in small Pacific islands show a variation with latitude, with lower 8-values between 15°N and 1S°S and higher values at higher. Inland stations are depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to coastal stations but sometimes this continental effect is rather complex, as f,or instance in África. Mean monthly 8-values show a remarkable correlation with the amount of precipitation, but the slope variations do not show a clear dependence on the mean long term 8-value,as should be expected theoretically. In Southern American stations the seasonal variations of the meanmonthly 5-values are correlated and they are greater in inland stations due to con-tinentaly. The possible effects of recycling of water vapour by evapotranspiration are also discussed.

Primary coronary angioplasty in 9,434 patients during acute myocardial infarction: predictors of major in- hospital adverse events from 1996 to 2000 in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To verify the results after the performance of primary coronary angioplasty in Brazil in the last 4 years. METHODS: During the first 24 hours of acute myocardial infarction onset, 9,434 (12.2%) patients underwent primary PTCA. We analyzed the success and occurrence of major in-hospital events, comparing them over the 4-year period. RESULTS: Primary PTCA use increased compared with that of all percutaneous interventions (1996=10.6% vs. 2000=13.1%; p<0.001). Coronary stent implantation increased (1996=20% vs. 2000=71.9%; p<0.001). Success was greater (1998=89.5% vs. 1999=92.5%; p<0.001). Reinfarction decreased (1998=3.9% vs. 99=2.4% vs. 2000=1.5%; p<0.001) as did emergency bypass surgery (1996=0.5% vs. 2000=0.2%; p=0.01). In-hospital deaths remained unchanged (1996=5.7% vs. 2000=5.1%, p=0.53). Balloon PTCA was one of the independent predictors of a higher rate of unsuccessful procedures (odds ratio 12.01 [CI=95%] 1.58-22.94), and stent implantation of lower mortality rates (odds ratio 4.62 [CI=95%] 3.19-6.08). CONCLUSION: The success rate has become progressively higher with a significant reduction in reinfarction and urgent bypass surgery, but in-hospital death remains nearly unchanged. Coronary stenting was a predictor of a lower death rate, and balloon PTCA was associated with greater procedural failure.

Baroreflex Sensitivity and its Association with Arrhythmic Events in Chagas Disease

Background:Sudden death is the leading cause of death in Chagas disease (CD), even in patients with preserved ejection fraction (EF), suggesting that destabilizing factors of the arrhythmogenic substrate (autonomic modulation) contribute to its occurrence.Objective:To determine baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) in patients with undetermined CD (GI), arrhythmogenic CD with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) (GII) and CD with spontaneous sustained ventricular tachycardia (STV) (GIII), to evaluate its association with the occurrence and complexity of arrhythmias.Method:Forty-two patients with CD underwent ECG and continuous and noninvasive BP monitoring (TASK force monitor). The following were determined: BRS (phenylephrine method); heart rate variability (HRV) on 24-h Holter; and EF (echocardiogram).Results:GIII had lower BRS (6.09 ms/mm Hg) as compared to GII (11.84) and GI (15.23). The difference was significant between GI and GIII (p = 0.01). Correlating BRS with the density of ventricular extrasystoles (VE), low VE density (<10/h) was associated with preserved BRS. Only 59% of the patients with high VE density (> 10/h) had preserved BRS (p = 0.003). Patients with depressed BRS had higher VE density (p = 0.01), regardless of the EF. The BRS was the only variable related to the occurrence of SVT (p = 0.028).Conclusion:The BRS is preserved in undetermined CD. The BRS impairment increases as disease progresses, being more severe in patients with more complex ventricular arrhythmias. The degree of autonomic dysfunction did not correlate with EF, but with the density and complexity of ventricular arrhythmias.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains controversial. Objective: To investigate the potential association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and an increased risk of MACE such as death, heart failure, reinfarction, and new revascularization in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 300 individuals aged >18 years who were diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention at a tertiary health center. An instrument evaluating clinical variables and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores was used. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was determined by nephelometry. The patients were followed-up during hospitalization and up to 30 days after infarction for the occurrence of MACE. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and logistic regression tests were used for statistical analyses. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: The mean age was 59.76 years, and 69.3% of patients were male. No statistically significant association was observed between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent MACE (p = 0.11). However, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was independently associated with 30-day mortality when adjusted for TIMI [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.51; p = 0.005] and GRACE (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; p = 0.007) risk scores. Conclusion: Although high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was not predictive of combined major cardiovascular events within 30 days after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients who underwent primary angioplasty and stent implantation, it was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality.

Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI) have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE) in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2) and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2). Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%), and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024). After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001) in the group with increased LAVI (26%) as compared to the normal LAVI group (7%) [RR (95% CI) = 3.46 (1.54-7.73) vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92)]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012). Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

Cost-Effectiveness of High, Moderate and Low-Dose Statins in the Prevention of Vascular Events in the Brazilian Public Health System

Background:Statins have proven efficacy in the reduction of cardiovascular events, but the financial impact of its widespread use can be substantial.Objective:To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of three statin dosing schemes in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) perspective.Methods:We developed a Markov model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of low, intermediate and high intensity dose regimens in secondary and four primary scenarios (5%, 10%, 15% and 20% ten-year risk) of prevention of cardiovascular events. Regimens with expected low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction below 30% (e.g. simvastatin 10mg) were considered as low dose; between 30-40%, (atorvastatin 10mg, simvastatin 40mg), intermediate dose; and above 40% (atorvastatin 20-80mg, rosuvastatin 20mg), high-dose statins. Effectiveness data were obtained from a systematic review with 136,000 patients. National data were used to estimate utilities and costs (expressed as International Dollars - Int$). A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the Brazilian gross domestic product per capita (circa Int$11,770) was applied.Results:Low dose was dominated by extension in the primary prevention scenarios. In the five scenarios, the ICER of intermediate dose was below Int$10,000 per QALY. The ICER of the high versus intermediate dose comparison was above Int$27,000 per QALY in all scenarios. In the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, intermediate dose had a probability above 50% of being cost-effective with ICERs between Int$ 9,000-20,000 per QALY in all scenarios.Conclusions:Considering a reasonable WTP threshold, intermediate dose statin therapy is economically attractive, and should be a priority intervention in prevention of cardiovascular events in Brazil.