Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

Virtual reality in assessment and treatment of schizophrenia: a systematic review

Objective To conduct a systematic review about the use of virtual reality (VR) for evaluation, treatment and/or rehabilitation of patients with schizophrenia, focused on: areas, fields and objectives; methodological issues; features of the VR used; viability and efficiency of this resource. Methods Searches were performed about schizophrenia and virtual reality in PsycINFO, Academic Search Complete, MEDLINE Complete, CINAHL with Full Text, Web of Science and Business Source Premier databases, using the following keywords: [“schizophrenia”] AND [“virtual reality” OR “serious game”] AND [“treatment” OR “therapy” OR “rehabilitation”]. The search was carried out between November 2013 and June 2014 without using any search limiters. Results A total of 101 papers were identified, and after the application of exclusion criteria, 33 papers remained. The studies analysed focused on the use of VR for the evaluation of cognitive, social, perceptual and sensory skills, and the vast majority were experimental studies, with virtual reality specifically created for them. All the reviewed papers point towards a reliable and safe use of VR for evaluating and treating cognitive and social deficits in patients with schizophrenia, with different results in terms of generalisation, motivation, assertiveness and task participation rate. Some problems were highlighted, such as its high cost and a constant need for software maintenance. Conclusion The studies show that using the virtual reality may streamline traditional evaluation/rehabilitation programmes, allowing to enhance the results achieved, both in the cognitive and in the social field, helping for the legitimisation of this population’s psycho-social inclusion.

New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a Keynesian world, and the Keynesian alternative

The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.

Incerteza e não ergodicidade: crítica aos neoclássicos

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents "power" on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.