Homicide and impunity: an ecological analysis at state level in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.

Social contextual factors contributing to child and adolescent labor: an ecological analysis

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between social contextual factors and child and adolescent labor. METHODS: Population-based cohort study carried out with 2,512 families living in 23 subareas of a large urban city in Brazil from 2000 to 2002. A random one-stage cluster sampling was used to select families. Data were obtained through individual household interviews using questionnaires. The annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor was estimated for each district. New child and adolescent labor cases were those who had their first job over the two-year follow-up. The annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor was the response variable and predictors were contextual factors such as lack of social support, social deprivation, unstructured family, perceived violence, poor school quality, poor environment conditions, and poor public services. Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression were used to assess the associations. RESULTS: There were selected 943 families corresponding to 1,326 non-working children and adolescents aged 8 to 17 years. Lack of social support, social deprivation, perceived violence were all positively and individually associated with the annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor. In the multiple linear regression model, however, only lack of social support and perceived violence in the neighborhood were positively associated to child and adolescent labor. No effect was found for poor school quality, poor environment conditions, poor public services or unstructured family. CONCLUSIONS: Poverty reduction programs can reduce the contextual factors associated with child and adolescent labor. Violence reduction programs and strengthening social support at the community level may contribute to reduce CAL.

Ecological analysis of Acari recovered from coprolites from archaeological site of Northeast Brazil

Coprolite samples of human and animal origin from the excavations performed at the archaeological site of Furna do Estrago, at Brejo da Madre de Deus in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil and sent to the Paleoparasitology Laboratory at Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública-Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, were analyzed for mites. After rehydratation and sedimentation of the coprolites, the alimentary contents and the sediments were examined and the mites collected and prepared in definitive whole mounts, using Hoyer's medium. Mites of the following suborders and orders were recovered: suborder Acaridia; order Gamasida; order Ixodida with the familiy Ixodidae (Ixodes sp. and Amblyomma sp. larvae, scutum, idiosoma, gnathosoma); order Oribatida (Aphelacarus sp., Apolohmannia sp., Eophypochthonius sp., Cosmochthonius sp., Pterobates sp., Poronoticae with pteromorphae not auriculate); order Astigmata with the families Atopomelidae (Chirodiscoides caviae), Anoetidae hypopus, Acaridae (Suidasia pontifica), Glycyphagidae (Blomia tropicalis), Pyroglyphidae (Hirstia passericola); order Actinedida with the family Tarsonemidae (Iponemus radiatae). The present work discusses the possibility of the preservation of the mite groups found up to the present day. We also discuss their relationship with the environment and their importance to present populations.

Splenomegaly in relation to Schistosoma mansoni egg counts: a population based study

A cross: sectional survey on schistosomiasis was done in Comercinho (Minas Gerais State, Brazil), a town with 1474 inhabitants. Stool (Kato-Katz method) and physical examinations were done on 90% of the population and on 84% of the individuals over 2 years of age, respectively. The ecological and individual (case-control) analysis were used to investigate the relation between splenomegaly and S. mansoni egg counts in different age groups. In the ecological analysis there was a clearly correspondence between higher geometric mean of eggs and higher percentage of splenomegaly in the age groups 5-9 and 10-12 years. In the individual analysis it was found that only in the youngest individuals (5-8 or 5-9 years old) the splenomegaly was related with higher mean egg counts in the feces, having been a tendency to the decrease of excretion of eggs in patients with splenomegaly as the age increased. These results strongly suggest that the ecological data are' better indicator of the severity of schistosomiasis in endemic areas, as the decrease of the egg excretion in patients with splenomegaly may be a confounding variable for the individual analysis.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

An ecological and comparative analysis of parasites in juvenile Mugil liza (Pisces, Mugilidae) from two sites in Samborombón bay, Argentina

ABSTRACT Mugil liza Valenciennes, 1836 is an economically important food fish and has been recommended for aquaculture in South America. A total of 278 fishes were collected in the spring and summer of 2009 and 2010. These fish were sorted into sample groups according to their size class. We used Bayesian statistics and 95% credible intervals for each parameter tested were calculated. Fish studied harbored a total of 15 different species of parasites. Diversity of parasite species found on Mugil liza was greatest at the S.R.C. collection site, but evidenced a lower species richness than at A.R. site. The 1st size fishes of both sites evidenced greater parasite diversity than either 2nd or 3rd size fish. Differences observed could be explained by the different use of habitat types at the two sites or differential susceptibility to infection by parasites. The dominance of D. fastigatainfluenced observed results of lower community diversity indexes. New works elucidating different parasite life cycles within juvenile and adults ofM. liza in Argentina, promise to be important for determining the risk of the parasitism by zoonotic metacercariae A. (P.) longa and use of this fish as food and an economic resource, and the possible use of mullet parasites in other promising fields as indicators of biodiversity, and/ or water contamination.

Ecological aspects of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: 4. Observations on the endophilic behavior of the sandfly and the vectorial role of Psychodopygus intermedius in the Ribeira Valley region of the S.Paulo State, Brazil

The invasive tendency of Psychodopygus intermedius in the home environment, observed initially by Forattini et al. (1976), has now been confirmed by the demonstration of its high endophilic ability and by the use of human residences for shelter. Populations such as Lutzomyia migonei and Pintomyia fischeri were also present in that environment, though their low densities registered during this investigation could be an indication of their poor ability to overcome the barriers raised by the artificial environment. An objective epidemiological analysis based on the variables here given showed that human infection takes place in the extraforest environment, and the principal vectorial function falls, without doubt, on P. intermedius.

Spatial analysis of the tuberculosis treatment dropout, Buenos Aires, Argentina

OBJECTIVE Identify spatial distribution patterns of the proportion of nonadherence to tuberculosis treatment and its associated factors.METHODS We conducted an ecological study based on secondary and primary data from municipalities of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. An exploratory analysis of the characteristics of the area and the distributions of the cases included in the sample (proportion of nonadherence) was also carried out along with a multifactor analysis by linear regression. The variables related to the characteristics of the population, residences and families were analyzed.RESULTS Areas with higher proportion of the population without social security benefits (p = 0.007) and of households with unsatisfied basic needs had a higher risk of nonadherence (p = 0.032). In addition, the proportion of nonadherence was higher in areas with the highest proportion of households with no public transportation within 300 meters (p = 0.070).CONCLUSIONS We found a risk area for the nonadherence to treatment characterized by a population living in poverty, with precarious jobs and difficult access to public transportation.

Spatial analysis of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil (2006-2012)

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.

Ecological aspects of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: 6. Man-biting sandfly fauna of a patch of residual forest in the middle and north-eastern region of the São Paulo State, Brazil

This report shows the phlebotomine vectorial role in the endemic cutaneous leishmaniasis situated in the middle and north-eastern region of the São Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of information encloses a sandfly man-biting fauna of four different patches of residual forest. So, using the human-bait and Shannon trap for a period of one year we have caught 16,869 sandflies. The predominance of Lutzomyia intermedia (85,6%) was clear. Moreover, the low density of Lutzomyia whitmani and Lutzomyia pessoai and their epidemiological implications at present and in the past are discussed. Information about the daily activity of some species is given and we emphasize for the first time, the diurnal activity of Lutzomyia firmatoi in the São Paulo State.

PCR with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis specific primers: potential use in ecological studies

The precise microenvironment of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has not yet been discovered perhaps because the methods used are not sensitive enough. We applied to this purpose the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using three sets of specific primers corresponding to two P. brasiliensis genes. This fungus as well as several other fungi, were grown and their DNA obtained by mechanical disruption and a phenol chloroform isoamylalcohol-based purification method. The DNA served for a PCR reaction that employed specific primers from two P. brasiliensis genes that codify for antigenic proteins, namely, the 27 kDa and the 43 kDa. The lowest detection range for the 27 kDa gene was 3 pg. The amplification for both genes was positive only with DNA from P. brasiliensis; additionally, the mRNA for the 27 kDa gene was present only in P. brasiliensis, as indicated by the Northern analysis. The standardization of PCR technology permitted the amplification of P. brasiliensis DNA in artificially contaminated soils and in tissues of armadillos naturally infected with the fungus. These results indicate that PCR technology could play an important role in the search for P. brasiliensis’ habitat and could also be used in other ecological studies.

Epidemiological and ecological aspects related to malaria in the area of influence of the lake at Porto Primavera dam, in western São Paulo State, Brazil

A study was carried out in the area of influence of the Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Power Station, in western São Paulo State, to investigate ecological and epidemiological aspects of malaria in the area and monitor the profile of the anopheline populations following the environmental changes brought about by the construction of the lake. Mosquitoes captured were analyzed by standardized indicator species analysis (ISA) before and during different flooding phases (253 m and 257 m elevations). The local human population was studied by means of parasitological (thin/thick blood smears), molecular (PCR) and serological tests. Serological tests consisted of Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) with synthetic peptides of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) from classic Plasmodium vivax, P. vivax variants (VK247 and "vivax-like"), P. malariae and P. falciparum and Indirect Immunofluorescence Assay (IFA) with asexual forms of P. vivax, P. malariae and P. falciparum. The results of the entomological survey indicated that, although the Anopheles darlingi population increased after the flooding, the population density remained very low. No malaria, parasite infection or DNA was detected in the inhabitants of the study area. However, there was a low frequency of antibodies against asexual forms and a significant prevalence of antibodies against P. vivax, P. vivax variants, P. falciparum and P. malariae; the presence of these antibodies may result from recent or less recent contact with human or simian Plasmodium (a parallel study in the same area revealed the existence of a sylvatic cycle). Nevertheless, these results suggest that, as in other places where malaria is present and potential vectors circulate, the local epidemiological conditions observed could potentially support the transmission of malaria in Porto Primavera Lake if infected individuals are introduced in sufficient numbers. Further studies are required to elucidate the phenomena described in this paper.

Antimicrobial use and incidence of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a teaching hospital: an ecological approach

INTRODUCTION: Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major threat in healthcare settings. The use of antimicrobials can influence the incidence of resistant strains by direct and indirect mechanisms. The latter can be addressed by ecological studies. METHODS: Our group attempted to analyze the relation between the use of antipseudomonal drugs and the incidence of MDR-PA among 18 units from a 400-bed teaching hospital. The study had a retrospective, ecological design, comprising data from 2004 and 2005. Data on the use of four antimicrobials (amikacin, ciprofloxacin, ceftazidime and imipenem) were tested for correlation with the incidence of MDR-PA (defined as isolates resistant to the four antimicrobials of interest) in clinical cultures. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Significant correlations were determined between use and resistance for all antimicrobials in the univariate analysis: amikacin (standardized correlation coefficient = 0.73, p = 0.001); ciprofloxacin (0.71, p = 0.001); ceftazidime (0.61, p = 0.007) and imipenem (0.87, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only imipenem (0.67, p = 0.01) was independently related to the incidence of multidrug-resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: These findings share similarities with those reported in individual-based observational studies, with possible implications for infection control.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Ecological competition and the incidence of Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections in a teaching hospital in Southeastern Brazil

IntroductionRecently, pathogen ecology has been recognized as an important epidemiological determinant of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most important agents known to cause HAIs. It is widespread in healthcare settings and exhibits seasonal variations in incidence. Little is known about the impact of competition with other hospital pathogens on the incidence of A. baumannii infection.MethodsWe conducted an ecological study, enrolling patients who presented with healthcare-associated bloodstream infections (HA-BSIs) from 2005 to 2010 at a 450-bed teaching hospital in Brazil. HA-BSIs were said to be present when bacteria or fungi were recovered from blood cultures collected at least three days after admission. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for all HA-BSIs (overall or caused by specific pathogens or groups of pathogens). Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to identify the impacts of the incidence of several pathogens on the incidence of A. baumannii.ResultsThe overall incidence rate of HA-BSI caused by A. baumannii was 2.5 per 10,000 patient-days. In the multivariate analysis, the incidence of HA-BSI caused by A. baumanniiwas negatively associated with the incidence rates of HA-BSI due to Staphylococcus aureus (rate ratio [RR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.80-0.97), Enterobacter spp. (RR=0.84; 95%CI=0.74-0.94) and a pool of less common gram-negative pathogens.ConclusionsOur results suggest that competition between pathogens influences the etiology of HA-BSIs. It would be beneficial to take these findings into account in infection control policies.