Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Dynamics of coherent vortices in mixing layers using direct numerical and large-eddy simulations

Coherent vortices in turbulent mixing layers are investigated by means of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large-Eddy Simulation (LES). Subgrid-scale models defined in spectral and physical spaces are reviewed. The new "spectral-dynamic viscosity model", that allows to account for non-developed turbulence in the subgrid-scales, is discussed. Pseudo-spectral methods, combined with sixth-order compact finite differences schemes (when periodic boundary conditions cannot be established), are used to solve the Navier- Stokes equations. Simulations in temporal and spatial mixing layers show two types of pairing of primary Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) vortices depending on initial conditions (or upstream conditions): quasi-2D and helical pairings. In both cases, secondary streamwise vortices are stretched in between the KH vortices at an angle of 45° with the horizontal plane. These streamwise vortices are not only identified in the early transitional stage of the mixing layer but also in self-similar turbulence conditions. The Re dependence of the "diameter" of these vortices is analyzed. Results obtained in spatial growing mixing layers show some evidences of pairing of secondary vortices; after a pairing of the primary Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) vortices, the streamwise vortices are less numerous and their diameter has increased than before the pairing of KH vortices.

Metas de inflação, taxa de câmbio real e crise externa num modelo kaleckiano

Inflation target, real exchange rate and external crisis in a Kaleckian model. Which role should the real exchange rate play in an inflation target regime? In this paper this point is discussed from the point of view of the conditions required for avoiding an external crisis. With this objective, a dynamic Kaleckian model is presented focusing on the stability of the external debt to capital ratio. The main conclusion is that policy makers should monitor closely the evolution of the real exchange rate in order to make compatible the inflation target regime with external stability.

Auger-type granular fertylizer distributor: matemathical model and dynamic simulation

The objective of this study was to model mathematically and to simulate the dynamic behavior of an auger-type fertilizer applicator (AFA) in order to use the variable-rate application (VRA) and reduce the coefficient of variation (CV) of the application, proposing an angular speed controller θ' for the motor drive shaft. The input model was θ' and the response was the fertilizer mass flow, due to the construction, density of fertilizer, fill factor and the end position of the auger. The model was used to simulate a control system in open loop, with an electric drive for AFA using an armature voltage (V A) controller. By introducing a sinusoidal excitation signal in V A with amplitude and delay phase optimized and varying θ' during an operation cycle, it is obtained a reduction of 29.8% in the CV (constant V A) to 11.4%. The development of the mathematical model was a first step towards the introduction of electric drive systems and closed loop control for the implementation of AFA with low CV in VRA.

Spectral analysis of the electromyograph of the erector spinae muscle before and after a dynamic manual load-lifting test

The aim of the present study was to assess the spectral behavior of the erector spinae muscle during isometric contractions performed before and after a dynamic manual load-lifting test carried out by the trunk in order to determine the capacity of muscle to perform this task. Nine healthy female students participated in the experiment. Their average age, height, and body mass (± SD) were 20 ± 1 years, 1.6 ± 0.03 m, and 53 ± 4 kg, respectively. The development of muscle fatigue was assessed by spectral analysis (median frequency) and root mean square with time. The test consisted of repeated bending movements from the trunk, starting from a 45º angle of flexion, with the application of approximately 15, 25 and 50% of maximum individual load, to the stand up position. The protocol used proved to be more reliable with loads exceeding 50% of the maximum for the identification of muscle fatigue by electromyography as a function of time. Most of the volunteers showed an increase in root mean square versus time on both the right (N = 7) and the left (N = 6) side, indicating a tendency to become fatigued. With respect to the changes in median frequency of the electromyographic signal, the loads used in this study had no significant effect on either the right or the left side of the erector spinae muscle at this frequency, suggesting that a higher amount and percentage of loads would produce more substantial results in the study of isotonic contractions.

Periodic dynamic systems for infected hosts and mosquitoes

A mathematical model for the purpose of analysing the dynamic of the populations of infected hosts anf infected mosquitoes when the populations of mosquitoes are periodic in time is here presented. By the computation of a parameter lambda (the spectral radius of a certain monodromy matrix) one can state that either the infection peters out naturally) (lambda <= 1) or if lambda > 1 the infection becomes endemic. The model generalizes previous models for malaria by considering the case of periodic coefficients; it is also a variation of that for gonorrhea. The main motivation for the consideration of this present model was the recent studies on mosquitoes at an experimental rice irrigation system, in the South-Eastern region of Brazil.

Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

Associations, causation and model in psychiatry

This paper discusses models, associations and causation in psychiatry. The different types of association (linear, positive, negative, exponential, partial, U shaped relationship, hidden and spurious) between variables involved in mental disorders are presented as well as the use of multiple regression analysis to disentangle interrelatedness amongst multiple variables. A useful model should have internal consistency, external validity and predictive power; be dynamic in order to accommodate new sound knowledge; and should fit facts rather than they other way around. It is argued that whilst models are theoretical constructs they also convey a style of reasoning and can change clinical practice. Cause and effect are complex phenomena in that the same cause can yield different effects. Conversely, the same effect can have a different range of causes. In mental disorders and human behaviour there is always a chain of events initiated by the indirect and remote cause; followed by intermediate causes; and finally the direct and more immediate cause. Causes of mental disorders are grouped as those: (i) which are necessary and sufficient; (ii) which are necessary but not sufficient; and (iii) which are neither necessary nor sufficient, but when present increase the risk for mental disorders.

Cell-matrix interactions in Schistosomal portal fibrosis: a dynamic event

In recent years, one of the most significant progress in the understanding of liver diseases was the demonstration that liver fibrosis is a dynamic process resulting from a balance between synthesis and degradation of several matrix components, collagen in particular. Thus, fibrosis has been found to be a very early event during liver diseases, be it of toxic, viral or parasitic origin, and to be spontaneously reversible, either partially or totally. In liver fibrosis cell matrix interactions are dependent on the existence of the many factors (sometimes acting in combination) which produce the same events at the cellular and molecular levels. These events are: (i) the recruitment of fiber-producing cells, (ii) their proliferation, (iii) the secretion of matrix constituents of the extracellular matrix, and (iv) the remodeling and degradation of the newly formed matrix. All these events represent, at least in principle, a target for a therapeutic intervention aimed at influencing the experimentally induced hepatic fibrosis. In this context, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis is of particular interest, being an immune cell-mediated granulomatous disease and a model of liver fibrosis allowing extensive studies in human and animals as well as providing original in vitro models.

Impact of Antifibrotic Treatment on the Course of Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Murine Model

Administration of an antifibrotic agent as an adjunct to antihelmintic treatment with the objective of morbidity reduction was investigated in the murine schistosomiasis mansoni model. Antifibrotic, ß-aminopropionitrile treatment has a profound effect on the cellular matrix composition of the liver granuloma of Schistosoma mansoni infected mice when given alone, resulting in increase macrophage infiltration. These macrophages, in response to stimulation with soluble egg antigen or lipopolysaccharide produced elevated levels of nitric oxide but low levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha compared to untreated infected mice. This also correlated with reduced liver granuloma size. In spite of low numbers of eggs in the liver, mice receiving a combine treatment had a high level of resistance to a challenge infection compared with mice receiving only praziquantel. Those mice also exhibited a reduced lymphocyte proliferative response, similar to that of infected untreated mice. Antifibrotic treatment has an impact on the dynamic of the cellular nature of granulomas and impacts on the host immunity to infection

The generation and re-generation of social capital and enterprises in multi-stakeholders social cooperative enterprises: a system dynamic approach

Theories on social capital and on social entrepreneurship have mainly highlighted the attitude of social capital to generate enterprises and to foster good relations between third sector organizations and the public sector. This paper considers the social capital in a specific third sector enterprise; here, multi-stakeholder social cooperatives are seen, at the same time, as social capital results, creators and incubators. In the particular enterprises that identify themselves as community social enterprises, social capital, both as organizational and relational capital, is fundamental: SCEs arise from but also produce and disseminate social capital. This paper aims to improve the building of relational social capital and the refining of helpful relations drawn from other arenas, where they were created and from where they are sometimes transferred to other realities, where their role is carried on further (often working in non-profit, horizontally and vertically arranged groups, where they share resources and relations). To represent this perspective, we use a qualitative system dynamic approach in which social capital is measured using proxies. Cooperation of volunteers, customers, community leaders and third sector local organizations is fundamental to establish trust relations between public local authorities and cooperatives. These relations help the latter to maintain long-term contracts with local authorities as providers of social services and enable them to add innovation to their services, by developing experiences and management models and maintaining an interchange with civil servants regarding these matters. The long-term relations and the organizational relations linking SCEs and public organizations help to create and to renovate social capital. Thus, multi-stakeholder cooperatives originated via social capital developed in third sector organizations produce new social capital within the cooperatives themselves and between different cooperatives (entrepreneurial components of the third sector) and the public sector. In their entrepreneurial life, cooperatives have to contrast the "working drift," as a result of which only workers remain as members of the cooperative, while other stakeholders leave the organization. Those who are not workers in the cooperative are (stake)holders with "weak ties," who are nevertheless fundamental in making a worker's cooperative an authentic social multi-stakeholders cooperative. To maintain multi-stakeholder governance and the relations with third sector and civil society, social cooperatives have to reinforce participation and dialogue with civil society through ongoing efforts to include people that provide social proposals. We try to represent these processes in a system dynamic model applied to local cooperatives, measuring the social capital created by the social cooperative through proxies, such as number of volunteers and strong cooperation with public institutions. Using a reverse-engineering approach, we can individuate the determinants of the creation of social capital and thereby give support to governance that creates social capital.

MODELING OF SOIL LOAD-BEARING CAPACITY AS A FUNCTION OF SOIL MECHANICAL RESISTANCE TO PENETRATION

Estimation of soil load-bearing capacity from mathematical models that relate preconsolidation pressure (σp) to mechanical resistance to penetration (PR) and gravimetric soil water content (U) is important for defining strategies to prevent compaction of agricultural soils. Our objective was therefore to model the σp and compression index (CI) according to the PR (with an impact penetrometer in the field and a static penetrometer inserted at a constant rate in the laboratory) and U in a Rhodic Eutrudox. The experiment consisted of six treatments: no-tillage system (NT); NT with chiseling; and NT with additional compaction by combine traffic (passing 4, 8, 10, and 20 times). Soil bulk density, total porosity, PR (in field and laboratory measurements), U, σp, and CI values were determined in the 5.5-10.5 cm and 13.5-18.5 cm layers. Preconsolidation pressure (σp) and CI were modeled according to PR in different U. The σp increased and the CI decreased linearly with increases in the PR values. The correlations between σp and PR and PR and CI are influenced by U. From these correlations, the soil load-bearing capacity and compaction susceptibility can be estimated by PR readings evaluated in different U.

Development of a three-dimensional nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model of solid propellant

A three dimensional nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model for the solid propellant is developed. In their earlier work, the authors have developed an isotropic constitutive model and verified it for one dimensional case. In the present work, the validity of the model is extended to three-dimensional cases. Large deformation, dewetting and cyclic loading effects are treated as the main sources of nonlinear behavior of the solid propellant. Viscoelastic dewetting criteria is used and the softening of the solid propellant due to dewetting is treated by the modulus decrease. The nonlinearities during cyclic loading are accounted for by the functions of the octahedral shear strain measure. The constitutive equation is implemented into a finite element code for the analysis of propellant grains. A commercial finite element package ‘ABAQUS’ is used for the analysis and the model is introduced into the code through a user subroutine. The model is evaluated with different loading conditions and the predicted values are in good agreement with the measured ones. The resulting model applied to analyze a solid propellant grain for the thermal cycling load.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

Response to an oral calcium load in nephrolithiasis patients with fluctuating parathyroid hormone and ionized calcium levels

the response to an oral calcium load test was assessed in 17 hypercalciuric nephrolithiasis patients who presented elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) irrespective of the ionized calcium (sCa2+) levels. Blood samples were collected at baseline (0 min) and at 60 and 180 min after 1 g calcium load for serum PTH, total calcium, sCa2+, and 1.25(OH)2D3 determinations. According to the sCa2+ level at baseline, patients were classified as normocalcemic (N = 9) or hypercalcemic (N = 8). Six healthy subjects were also evaluated as controls. Bone mineral density was reduced in 14/17 patients. In the normocalcemic group, mean PTH levels at 0, 60 and 180 min (95 ± 76, 56 ± 40, 57 ± 45 pg/ml, respectively) did not differ from the hypercalcemic group (130 ± 75, 68 ± 35, 80 ± 33 pg/ml) but were significantly higher compared to healthy subjects despite a similar elevation in sCa2+ after 60 and 180 min vs baseline in all 3 groups. Mean total calcium and 1.25(OH)2D3 were similar in the 3 groups. Additionally, we observed that 5 of 9 normocalcemic patients presented a significantly higher concentration-time curve for serum PTH (AUC0',60',180') than the other 4 patients and the healthy subjects, suggesting a primary parathyroid dysfunction. These data suggest that the individual response to an oral calcium load test may be a valuable dynamic tool to disclose a subtle primary hyperparathyroidism in patients with high PTH and fluctuating sCa2+ levels, avoiding repeated measurements of both parameters.