Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Potassium distribution in drip irrigation with fertigation for different injection distances in the main line

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the K2O distribution uniformity by surface drip irrigation at Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia, Spain (39º 29′ N, 0º 23′ W, 20 m). The irrigation was performed by drip lines with not-compensated emitters, spaced 0.3 m. The fertigation was realized using a fertilizer injector pump of electric action with injection of 0.25 h. The experimental design used completely randomized blocks with five treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of injection in five distances, located at 10; 20; 30; 40; 50 m of the first drip line. Samples were collected in emitters located at the start, at 1/3, at 2/3 and at the end of the drip lines. The nutrient concentration was determined by flame spectrophotometry. The Christiansen's uniformity coefficients (CUC), of distribution (DUC), of statistical (SUC) and of emission (eUC) were estimated. The K2O concentration and distribution decreased linearly with the increase of the injection distance. In all treatments, the CUC, SUC and DUC were described as 'excellent'. The eUC was described as 'recommended' only at smaller injection distances.

Spatial distribution and socioeconomic context of tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.

SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF MALARIA VECTORS (DIPTERA: CULICIDAE) IN RURAL LOCALITIES OF PORTO VELHO, RONDÔNIA, BRAZILIAN AMAZON

We conducted a survey of the malaria vectors in an area where a power line had been constructed, between the municipalities of Porto Velho and Rio Branco, in the states of Rondônia and Acre, respectively. The present paper relates to the results of the survey of Anopheles fauna conducted in the state of Rondônia. Mosquito field collections were performed in six villages along the federal highway BR 364 in the municipality of Porto Velho, namely Porto Velho, Jaci Paraná, Mutum Paraná, Vila Abunã, Vista Alegre do Abunã, and Extrema. Mosquito captures were performed at three distinct sites in each locality during the months of February, July, and October 2011 using a protected human-landing catch method; outdoor and indoor captures were conducted simultaneously at each site for six hours. In the six sampled areas, we captured 2,185 mosquitoes belonging to seven Anopheles species. Of these specimens, 95.1% consisted of Anopheles darlingi, 1.8% An. triannulatus l.s., 1.7% An. deaneorum, 0.8% An. konderi l.s., 0.4 An. braziliensis, 0.1% An. albitarsis l.s., and 0.1% An. benarrochi. An. darlingi was the only species found in all localities; the remaining species occurred in sites with specific characteristics.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis.

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Doses and methods of distribution of potassium chloride on soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) in a red latosol, affecting soil salinity, grain production and chemical composition of leaves

The present work deal t wi th an experiment under field conditions and a laboratory test of soil incubation the objectives were as follows: a. to study effects on soybean grain product ion and leaf composition of increasing doses of potassium chloride applied into the soil through two methods of distribution; b. to observe chemical modifications in the soils incubated with increasing doses of potassium chloride; and, c. to correlate field effects with chemical alterations observed in the incubation test, The field experiment was carried out in a Red Latosol (Haplustox) with soybean cultivar UFV - 1. Potassium chloride was distributed through two methods: banded (5 cm below and 5 cm aside of the seed line) and broadcasted and plowed-down. Doses used were: 0; 50; 100 and 200 kg/ha of K2O. Foliar samples were taken at flowering stage. Incubation test were made in plastic bags with 2 kg of air dried fine soil, taken from the arable layer of the field experiment, with the following doses of KC1 p,a. : 0; 50; 100; 200; 400; 800; 1,600; 3.200; 6,400 and 12,800 kg/ha of K(2)0. In the conditions observed during the present work, results allowed the following conclusions: A response by soybean grain production for doses of potassium chloride, applied in both ways, banded or broadcasted, was not observed. Leaf analysis did not show treatment influence over the leaf contents for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, and CI, Potassium chloride salinity effects in both methods of distribution for all the tested closes were not observed.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Distribution and hybridization between Culex pipiens and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Argentina

To better undesrtand the distribution of Culex pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus in Argentina, samples were collected from six localities situated in a North-South line from Castelli (Chaco Province) to Puerto Madryn (Chubut Province). Identification was based on the morphology of male genitalia. Only Cx. quinquefasciatus was found in Castelli and Esperanza, while in Rosario, 95.3% belonged to this species and 4.7% represented hybrid forms. Southern samples included only Cx. pipiens. With the purpose of verfying if Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus hybridize, different crosses between the two species were perfomed. All crosses produced viable egg rafts. Hatching ranged from 70 to 100%, except in one cross, female Cx. pipiens x male Cx. quinquefasciatus, where a high incompatibility was observed (11.1%hatch). The F1 hybrids obtained all crosses were fertile. The finding of hybrid forms in nature can be interpreted as evidence for subspecific status of Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus in Argentina.

Chagas disease in Mexico: an analysis of geographical distribution during the past 76 years - A review

Literature from 1928 through 2004 was compiled from different document sources published in Mexico or elsewhere. From these 907 publications, we found 19 different topics of Chagas disease study in Mexico. The publications were arranged by decade and also by state. This information was used to construct maps describing the distribution of Chagas disease according to different criteria: the disease, vectors, reservoirs, and strains. One of the major problems confronting study of this zoonotic disease is the great biodiversity of the vector species; there are 30 different species, with at least 10 playing a major role in human infection. The high variability of climates and biogeographic regions further complicate study and understanding of the dynamics of this disease in each region of the country. We used a desktop Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction procedure to provide ecological models of organism niches, offering improved flexibility for choosing predictive environmental and ecological data. This approach may help to identify regions at risk of disease, plan vector-control programs, and explore parasitic reservoir association. With this collected information, we have constructed a data base: CHAGMEX, available online in html format.

Temporal distribution of ten calyptrate dipteran species of medicolegal importance in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Brazilian studies involving entomological succession patterns in carcasses have been used to describe the necrophagous entomofauna of a determined municipality or region with forensic objectives. Following the same objectives, an ecological study with 10 calyptrate dipterans was carried out during the winter of 2007 and the summer of 2008 in the metropolitan region of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The aim of this study was to describe several aspects of the phenology of these species in three neighbouring areas. Carcasses of three domestic pigs (Sus scrofa L.) were used in each season as models for forensic and legal medicine investigations in the region. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall were measured daily and their relations with population abundance of the colonising species and the decomposition stages were analysed. Ten fly species were recorded to be colonising the carcasses, five of which belonged to the Calliphoridae family, three to the Muscidae, one to the Fanniidae and one to the Sarcophagidae family. Data show preferences of these species for climatic season and decomposition stage, as well as for the studied area and suggest that short distances can significantly influence the abundance of some species.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani,Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpiswere the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.

Field data and prediction models of pesticide spray drift on coffee crop

The objective of this work was to generate drift curves from pesticide applications on coffee plants and to compare them with two European drift-prediction models. The used methodology is based on the ISO 22866 standard. The experimental design was a randomized complete block with ten replicates in a 2x20 split-plot arrangement. The evaluated factors were: two types of nozzles (hollow cone with and without air induction) and 20 parallel distances to the crop line outside of the target area, spaced at 2.5 m. Blotting papers were used as a target and placed in each of the evaluated distances. The spray solution was composed of water+rhodamine B fluorescent tracer at a concentration of 100 mg L-1, for detection by fluorimetry. A spray volume of 400 L ha-1 was applied using a hydropneumatic sprayer. The air-induction nozzle reduces the drift up to 20 m from the treated area. The application with the hollow cone nozzle results in 6.68% maximum drift in the nearest collector of the treated area. The German and Dutch models overestimate the drift at distances closest to the crop, although the Dutch model more closely approximates the drift curves generated by both spray nozzles.