A risk infection simulation model for fusarium head blight of wheat

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a disease of great concern in wheat (Triticum aestivum). Due to its relatively narrow susceptible phase and environmental dependence, the pathosystem is suitable for modeling. In the present work, a mechanistic model for estimating an infection index of FHB was developed. The model is process-based driven by rates, rules and coefficients for estimating the dynamics of flowering, airborne inoculum density and infection frequency. The latter is a function of temperature during an infection event (IE), which is defined based on a combination of daily records of precipitation and mean relative humidity. The daily infection index is the product of the daily proportion of susceptible tissue available, infection frequency and spore cloud density. The model was evaluated with an independent dataset of epidemics recorded in experimental plots (five years and three planting dates) at Passo Fundo, Brazil. Four models that use different factors were tested, and results showed all were able to explain variation for disease incidence and severity. A model that uses a correction factor for extending host susceptibility and daily spore cloud density to account for post-flowering infections was the most accurate explaining 93% of the variation in disease severity and 69% of disease incidence according to regression analysis.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Towards a Unified Theory of Health-Disease: I. Health as a complex model-object

Theory building is one of the most crucial challenges faced by basic, clinical and population research, which form the scientific foundations of health practices in contemporary societies. The objective of the study is to propose a Unified Theory of Health-Disease as a conceptual tool for modeling health-disease-care in the light of complexity approaches. With this aim, the epistemological basis of theoretical work in the health field and concepts related to complexity theory as concerned to health problems are discussed. Secondly, the concepts of model-object, multi-planes of occurrence, modes of health and disease-illness-sickness complex are introduced and integrated into a unified theoretical framework. Finally, in the light of recent epistemological developments, the concept of Health-Disease-Care Integrals is updated as a complex reference object fit for modeling health-related processes and phenomena.

Towards a unified theory of health-disease: II. Holopathogenesis

This article presents a systematic framework for modeling several classes of illness-sickness-disease named as Holopathogenesis. Holopathogenesis is defined as processes of over-determination of diseases and related conditions taken as a whole, comprising selected facets of the complex object Health. First, a conceptual background of Holopathogenesis is presented as a series of significant interfaces (biomolecular-immunological, physiopathological-clinical, epidemiological-ecosocial). Second, propositions derived from Holopathogenesis are introduced in order to allow drawing the disease-illness-sickness complex as a hierarchical network of networks. Third, a formalization of intra- and inter-level correspondences, over-determination processes, effects and links of Holopathogenesis models is proposed. Finally, the Holopathogenesis frame is evaluated as a comprehensive theoretical pathology taken as a preliminary step towards a unified theory of health-disease.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Genetic divergence in cocoa progenies for backcrossing program to witches' broom disease resistance

Backcrossing has been little used in cacao breeding, particularly due to the long time required to transfer genes and recover the genetic background of the recurrent parent. The objective of this study was to select individuals, resulting from the backcross CEPEC-42 x SIC-19, genetically related to the recurrent parent SIC-19 by using RAPD molecular markers, among those with resistance to witches' broom. Of the 31 plants that clustered with SIC-19, 18 from the replanted material remained free of the disease in the field, with good vegetative aspect and, therefore can be used for backcross to reach the desired objective.

Prevalence of periodontal disease in dogs and owners' level of awareness - a prospective clinical trial

Periodontal disease (PD) is widely known among veterinarians for its high prevalence and serious consequences to the dogs. The objective of this study was to assess the occurrence of PD in dogs that live in the micro-region of Viçosa, treated at the Veterinary Hospital of the Federal University of Viçosa (HVT - Hospital Veterinário da Universidade Federal de Viçosa), as well as to assess how aware of this disease dog owners are. In order to do so, all dogs treated at the HVT from March 10th, 2009 to November 30th, 2009, on alternate days, had their oral cavities examined. Medical history data, such as age, type of food, main complaint and owner consent, halitosis, presence of dental calculus, inflammation and gingival recession and tooth loss, were collected. A prevalence of 88.67% was found for PD in dogs referred to the HVT, and 2.67% were referred due to this disease. Of all the owners who participated in the study, 43.83% knew about periodontal disease and of these 17.46% made use of some type of prevention or treatment. Therefore, periodontal disease is highly prevalent and the owners are not aware of the disease. Thus, a dog owner clarification program on periodontal disease is needed in the area where HVT-UFV operates.

Prediction of genetic gain from selection indices for disease resistance in papaya hybrids

In order to select superior hybrids for the concentration of favorable alleles for resistance to papaya black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot, 67 hybrids were evaluated in two seasons, in 2007, in a randomized block design with two replications. Genetic gains were estimated from the selection indices of Smith & Hazel, Pesek & Baker, Williams, Mulamba & Mock, with selection intensity of 22.39%, corresponding to 15 hybrids. The index of Mulamba & Mock showed gains more suitable for the five traits assessed when it was used the criterion of economic weight tentatively assigned. Together, severity of black spot on leaves and on fruits, characteristics considered most relevant to the selection of resistant materials, expressed percentage gain of -44.15%. In addition, there were gains for other characteristics, with negative predicted selective percentage gain. The results showed that the index of Mulamba & Mock is the most efficient procedure for simultaneous selection of papaya hybrid resistant to black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot.

Agronomic performance of 27 cocoa progenies and plant selection based on productivity, self-compatibility and disease resistance

The objective of the present work was to evaluate 27 progenies of cocoa crosses considering the agronomic traits and select F1 plants within superior crosses. The experiment was installed in March 2005, in the Experimental Station Joaquim Bahiana (ESJOB), in Itajuipe, Bahia. The area of the experiment is of approximately 3 ha, with a total of 3240 plants. Thirteen evaluations of vegetative brooms, five of cushion brooms and 15 of number of pods per plant were accomplished. Thirty pollinations were made for each selected plant to test for self-compatibility. The production, based on the number of pods per plant, and resistance to witches´ broom indicated CEPEC 94 x CCN 10, RB 39 x CCN 51 and CCN 10 x VB 1151 as superior progenies. All selections tested were self-compatible. The analyses of progenies and individual tree data, associated to visual field observations, allowed the selection of 17 plants which were included in a network of regional tests to determine the phenotypic stability.

Silicon in plant disease control

All essential nutrients can affect the incidence and severity of plant diseases. Although silicon (Si) is not considered as an essential nutrient for plants, it stands out for its potential to decrease disease intensity in many crops. The mechanism of Si action in plant resistance is still unclear. Si deposition in plant cell walls raised the hypothesis of a possible physical barrier to pathogen penetration. However, the increased activity of phenolic compounds, polyphenol oxidases and peroxidases in plants treated with Si demonstrates the involvement of this element in the induction of plant defense responses. The studies examined in this review address the role of Si in disease control and the possible mechanisms involved in the mode of Si action in disease resistance in plants.

Chagas' disease and social security: a case-control study in an urban area, Goiás, Brazil

One hundred and twenty subjects with Chagas' cardiopathy and 120 non-infected subjects were randomly selected from first time claimants of sickness benefits in the National Institute of Social Security (INPS) in Goiás. Cases of Chagas' cardiopathy were defined based on serological test, history of residence in an endemic area and, clinical and/or electrocardiogram (ECG) alterations suggestive of Chagas' cardiomyopathy. Controls were defined as subjects with at least two negative serological tests. Case and controls were compared in the analysis for age, sex, place of birth, migration history, socio-economic level, occupation, physical exertion at work, age at affiliation and years of contribution to the social security scheme, clinical course of their disease and ECG abnormalities. Chagas' disease patients were younger than other subjects and predominantly of rural origin. Non-infected subjects presented a better socio-economic level, were performing more skilled activities and had less changes of job than cases. No important difference was observed in relation to age at affiliation to INPS. About 60% of cases have claimed for benefits within the first four years of contribution while among controls this proportion was 38.5%. Cases were involved, proportionally more than controls, in "heavy" activities. A risk of 2.3 (95%CL 1.5 - 4.6) and 1.8 (95%CL 1.2- 3.5) was obtained comparing respectively "heavy" and "moderate" physical activity against "light". A relative risk of 8.5 (95%CL 4.9 - 14.8) associated with the presence of cardiopathy was estimated comparing the initial sample of seropositive subjects and controls. A high relative risk was observed in relation to right bundle branch block (RR = 37.1 95%CL = 8.8 - 155.6) and left anterior hemiblock (RR = 4.4, 95%CL = 2.1 - 9.1).

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 3 - On the interaction of vector species and parasite strain in the reaction of bugs to infection by Trypanosoma cruzi

The reaction of nine vector species of Chagas' disease to infection by seven different Trypanosoma cruzi strains; Berenice, Y, FL, CL, S. Felipe, Colombiana and Gávea, are examined and compared. On the basis of the insects' ability to establish and maintain the infection, vector species could be divided into two distinct groups which differ in their reaction to an acute infection by T. cruzi. While the proportion of positive bugs was found to be low in Triatoma infestans and Triatoma dimidiata it was high, ranging from 96.9% to 100% in the group of wild (Rhodnius neglectus, Triatoma rubrovaria)and essentially sylvatic vectors in process of adaptation to human dwellings, maintained under control following successful insecticidal elimination of Triatoma infestans (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma sordida and Triatoma pseudomaculata). An intermediate position is held by Triatoma brasiliensis and Rhodnius prolixus. This latter has been found to interchange between domestic and sylvatic environments. The most important finding is the strikingly good reaction between each species of the sylvatic bugs and practically all T. cruzi strains herein studied, thus indicating that the factors responsible for the excellent reaction of P.megistus to infection by Y strain, as previously reported also come into operation in the reaction of the same vector species to acute infections by five of the remaining T.cruzi strains. Comparison or data reported by other investigators with those herein described form the basis of the discussion of Dipetalogaster maximus as regards its superiority as a xenodiagnostic agent.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 4 - The reflection of parasite stock in the responsiveness of different vector species to chronic infection with different Trypanosoma cruzi stocks

Previous studies (1982,1987) have emphasized the superiority of sylvatic vector species over domestic species as xenodiagnostic agents in testing hosts with acute or chronic infections by T. cruzi "Y" stock. The present study, which is unique in that it contains data on both infectivity rates produced by the same stock in 11 different vector species and also the reaction of the same vector species to seven different parasite stocks, establishes the general validity of linking efficiency of xenodiagnosis to the biotope of its agent. For example, infectivity rates produced by "São Felipe" stock varied from 82.5% to 98.3% in sylvatic vectors but decreased to 42.5% to 71.3% in domestic species. "Colombiana" stock produced in the same sylvatic vectors infectivity rates ranging from 12.5% to 45%. These shrank to 5%-22.5% in domestic bugs. The functional role of the biotope in the vector-parasite interaction has not been eluddated. But since this phenomenon has been observed to be stable and easy to reproduce, it leads us to believe that the results obtained are valid. Data presented also provide increasing evidence that the infectivity rates exhibited by bugs from xenodiagnosis in chronic hosts, are parasite stock specific. For example, infectivity rates produced by "Berenice", "Y", "FL" and "CL" varied in R. neglectus from 26.3% to 75%; in P. megistus from 56.3% to 83.8%; in T. sordida from 28.8% to 58.8% in T. pseudomaculata from 41.3% to 66.3% and in T. rubrovaria from 48.8% to 85%. Data from xenodiagnosis in the same hosts, carrying acute infections by the same parasite stocks, gave the five sylvatic vectors a positive rating of approximately 100%, thus suggesting that the heavy loads of parasites circulating in the acute hosts obscured the characteristic interspecific differences for the parasite stock. Nonetheless these latter were revealed in the same hosts with chronic infections stimulated by very low numbers of the same parasite stocks. Certain observations here described lead us to speculate as to the possibility of further results from other parasite stocks, allowing the association of the infectivity rates produced in bugs by different parasite stocks with the isoenzymic patterns revealed by these stocks.

Lyme Disease: antibodies against Borrelia burgdorferi in farm workers in Argentina

Lyme Disease is a tick-borne (specially by Ixodes ticks) immune-mediated inflammatory disorder caused by a newly recognize spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi. Indirect fluorescent antibody (IF) staining methods and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay are frequently relied upon to confirm Lyme borreliosis infections. Although serologic testing for antibodies has limitations, it is still the only practical means of confirming B. burgdorferi infections. Because we have no previous report of Lyme disease in human inhabitants in Argentina, a study was designed as a seroepidemiologic investigation of the immune response to B. burgdorferi in farm workers of Argentina with arthritis symptoms. Three out of 28 sera were positive (#1,5 and 9). Serum # 1 was positive for Immunoglobulin G at dilution 1:320, serum # 5 and # 9 both to dilution 1:160; while for Immunoglobulin M all (#1, 5 and 9) were positive at low dilution (1:40) using IF. The results showed that antibodies against B. burgdorferi are present in an Argentinian population. Thus caution should be exercised in the clinical interpretation of arthritis until the presence of B. burgdorferi be confirmed by culture in specific media.