Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

STRATEGIES FOR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RECESSIONS: PRO OR COUNTER-CYCLICAL?

Recessions are recurring events in which most firms suffer severe impacts while others are less affected or may even prosper. Strategic management has made little progress in understanding such performance differences. In a scenario of decreased demand, intensified competition, and higher uncertainty, most firms try to survive by pro-cyclically cutting costs and investments. But firms could take advantage of undervalued resources in the market to counter-cyclically invest in new business opportunities to overtake competitors. We survey Brazilian firms in various industries about the 2008-2009 recession and analyze data using PLS-SEM. We find that while most firms pro-cyclically reduce costs and investments in recessions, a counter-cyclical strategy of investing in opportunities created by changes in the market enables superior performance. Most successful are firms with a propensity to recognize opportunities, an entrepreneurial orientation to invest, and the flexibility to efficiently implement investments.

Demand for and availability of online support to stop smoking

OBJECTIVES: Estimate the frequency of online searches on the topic of smoking and analyze the quality of online resources available to smokers interested in giving up smoking. METHODS: Search engines were used to revise searches and online resources related to stopping smoking in Brazil in 2010. The number of searches was determined using analytical tools available on Google Ads; the number and type of sites were determined by replicating the search patterns of internet users. The sites were classified according to content (advertising, library of articles and other). The quality of the sites was analyzed using the Smoking Treatment Scale- Content (STS-C) and the Smoking Treatment Scale - Rating (STS-R). RESULTS: A total of 642,446 searches was carried out. Around a third of the 113 sites encountered were of the 'library' type, i.e. they only contained articles, followed by sites containing clinical advertising (18.6) and professional education (10.6). Thirteen of the sites offered advice on quitting directed at smokers. The majority of the sites did not contain evidence-based information, were not interactive and did not have the possibility of communicating with users after the first contact. Other limitations we came across were a lack of financial disclosure as well as no guarantee of privacy concerning information obtained and no distinction made between editorial content and advertisements. CONCLUSIONS: There is a disparity between the high demand for online support in giving up smoking and the scarcity of quality online resources for smokers. It is necessary to develop interactive, customized online resources based on evidence and random clinical testing in order to improve the support available to Brazilian smokers.

Cross-cultural validity of the demand-control questionnaire: Swedish and Brazilian workers

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cross-cultural validity of the Demand-Control Questionnaire, comparing the original Swedish questionnaire with the Brazilian version. METHODS We compared data from 362 Swedish and 399 Brazilian health workers. Confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses were performed to test structural validity, using the robust weighted least squares mean and variance-adjusted (WLSMV) estimator. Construct validity, using hypotheses testing, was evaluated through the inspection of the mean score distribution of the scale dimensions according to sociodemographic and social support at work variables. RESULTS The confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses supported the instrument in three dimensions (for Swedish and Brazilians): psychological demands, skill discretion and decision authority. The best-fit model was achieved by including an error correlation between work fast and work intensely (psychological demands) and removing the item repetitive work (skill discretion). Hypotheses testing showed that workers with university degree had higher scores on skill discretion and decision authority and those with high levels of Social Support at Work had lower scores on psychological demands and higher scores on decision authority. CONCLUSIONS The results supported the equivalent dimensional structures across the two culturally different work contexts. Skill discretion and decision authority formed two distinct dimensions and the item repetitive work should be removed.

Influence of Immunopreventable Diseases and AIDS on the Demand of an Infectious Diseases Department in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, in the Course of Thirty Years (1965-1994)

Brazil's nosologic profile has been sustaining profound modifications. Some occurred because of massive immunization campaigns and socioeconomic and demographic trends. Some yet were pure nosologic transitions, such as the emergence of AIDS. In this demand study it is described how these changes reflected on the 8,630 admissions of an Infectious Diseases Department in Niterói, along a thirty year period. Brazilian rural endemic diseases were infrequent (3.45%). Men predominated (62%) all the time, in all age strata and in nearly all diseases. Children under fifteen predominated until 1983. There was, in the case of tetanus, a striking rise in age strata. Institutional mortality dropped from 31% in 1965 to 10% in 1984, but rose since then to 15% in 1994. However, if AIDS patients had not been computed, mortality would have kept descending till 8% at the end of the study period. The crescent unimportance of immunopreventable diseases paralleled with the growing prominence of AIDS. In less than a decade, AIDS ranked fifth among the most frequent diseases in the whole period of thirty years. As opposed to the immunopreventable diseases, neither meningitides nor pneumonia appear to be in decline. AIDS, by its exponential incidence, by its chronic character, and by the uncountable opportunistic infections it determines, imposes itself as a challenge for the coming years.

Quality uncertainty and allocation of decision rights in the European protected designation of origin

The paper considers some issue in the governance of the European Protected Designation of Origin (PDO). The PDO systems are the outcomes of both farmers and consumers expectations and connect the valorisation of the agricultural and rural resources of given territories to the quality of typical products. A critical point in the governance of the PDO systems is represented by the connection between the quality strategies and the uncertainty. The paper argues that the PDO systems can be thought of as strictly coordinated subsystems in which the ex post governance play a critical role in coping with quality uncertainty. The study suggests that the society's inducements given raise to complex organizational systems in which the allocation of decision rights to PDO collective organizations play a major role. The empirical analysis is carried out by examining ten Italian PDO systems in order to identify the decision rights allocated.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

Permanent demand excess as business strategy: an analysis of the Brazilian higher-education market

Many Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) establish tuition below the equilibrium price to generate permanent demand excess. This paper first adapts Becker’s (1991) theory to understand why the HEIs price in this way. The fact that students are both consumers and inputs on the education production process gives rise to a market equilibrium where some firms have excess demand and charge high prices, and others charge low prices and have empty seats.Second, the paper analyzes this equilibrium empirically. We estimated the demand for undergraduate courses in Business Administration in the State of São Paulo. The results show that tuition, quality of incoming students and percentage of lecturers holding doctorates degrees are the determining factors of students’ choice. Since the student quality determines the demand for a HEI, it is calculated what the value is for a HEI to get better students; that is the total revenue that each HEI gives up to guarantee excess demand. Regarding the “investment” in selectivity, 39 HEIs in São Paulo give up a combined R$ 5 million (or US$ 3.14 million) in revenue per year per freshman class, which means 7.6% of the revenue coming from a freshman class.

Work-related stress according to the demand-control model and minor psychic disorders in nursing workers

This was a cross-sectional study that aimed to assess the association between work-related stress according to the Demand-Control Model, and the occurrence of Minor Psychic Disorder (MPD) in nursing workers. The participants were 335 professionals, out of which 245 were nursing technicians, aged predominantly between 20 and 40 years. Data were collected using the Job Stress Scale and the Self-Reporting Questionnaire-20. The analysis was performed using descriptive and analytical statistics. The prevalence of suspected MPD was 20.6%. Workers classified in the quadrants active job and high strain of the Demand-Control Model presented higher potential for developing MPD compared with those classified in the quadrant low strain. In conclusion, stress affects the mental health of workers and the aspects related to high psychological demands and high control still require further insight in order to understand their influence on the disease processes of nursing workers.

NUTRIENT DEMAND BY THE CARROT CROP IS INFLUENCED BY THE CULTIVAR

Farmers must carefully choose the cultivar to be grown for a successful carrot crop. The yield potential of the cultivar may influence nutrient demand and should be known to plan for fertilization application. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cultivar effect on carrot yield and on the nutrient content and quantities allocated to leaves and roots. Three experiments were set up in two crop seasons in Rio Paranaíba, MG, Brazil. In the first season, typical summer, 10 summer cultivars were sown. In the second season, summer-winter (transition), two experiments were set up, one with summer cultivars and the other with winter cultivars. The treatments consisted of the carrot cultivars distributed in randomized blocks with four replications. Fresh and dry matter of the roots and leaves was quantified. Yield was calculated based on fresh matter of the roots. The nutrient content in leaves and roots was determined at the time of harvest. These contents and the dry matter production of roots and leaves were used to calculate nutrient uptake and export. The greatest average for total and commercial yield occurred in the crop under summer conditions. Extraction of N and K for most of the cultivars in the three experiments went beyond the amounts applied through fertilizers. Thus, there was contribution of nutrients from the soil to obtain the yields observed. However, the amount of P taken up was considerably less than that applied. This implies that soil P fertility will increase after cropping. The crop season and the cultivars influenced yield, nutrient content in the leaves and roots, and extraction and export of nutrients by the carrot crop.

SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY OF NUTRIENT LOSS BY EROSION IN SUGARCANE HARVESTING SCENARIOS

The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Internal standard versus external standard calibration: an uncertainty case study of a liquid chromatography analysis

Traditionally, in the cigarettes industry, the determination of ammonium ion in the mainstream smoke is performed by ion chromatography. This work studies this determination and compares the results of this technique with the use of external and internal standard calibration. A reference cigarette sample presented measurement uncertainty of 2.0 μg/cigarette and 1.5 μg/cigarette, with external and internal standard, respectively. It is observed that the greatest source of uncertainty is the bias correction factor and that it is even more significant when using external standard, confirming thus the importance of internal standardization for this correction.

Organic and total mercury determination in sediments by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry: methodology validation and uncertainty measurements

The purpose of the present study was to validate a method for organic Hg determination in sediment. The procedure for organic Hg was adapted from literature, where the organomercurial compounds were extracted with dichloromethane in acid medium and subsequent destruction of organic compounds by bromine chloride. Total Hg was performed according to 3051A USEPA methodology. Mercury quantification for both methodologies was then performed by CVAAS. Methodology validation was verified by analyzing certified reference materials for total Hg and methylmercury. The uncertainties for both methodologies were calculated. The quantification limit of 3.3 µg kg-1 was found for organic Hg by CVAAS.

Seeder-fertilizer machine: energetic demand as a function of vegetal covering handling and manure deposition shank depth in no-tillage system

The purpose of this work was evaluating the energetic demand of a seeder-fertilizer machine as a function of the type and handling of vegetal covering culture and of the fertilizer deposition shank depth. A Valtra BM100 tractor was used implemented to pull a high precision seeder-fertilizer machine with four ranks of seeding, spaced 0.9 m for maize culture. Experiment was conducted with design in randomized blocks in factorial plots, in the Laboratory of Machines and Agricultural Mechanization experimental area (LAMMA) of UNESP-Jaboticabal, using two covering cultures (black-mucuna and crotalaria), three handlings of this covering, two mechanical (straw crusher and roller knife) and one chemical (pulverization of herbicide), performed 120 days after seeding of covering cultures and three depths of fertilizer deposition shank, completing 18 treatments, with four repetitions, totaling 72 observations. Parameters of displacement speed, gliding, force on traction bar, peak force, power on pulling bar and fuel consumption were evaluated. It was possible to conclude that force on traction bar was less for depths of 0.11 and 0.14 m of fertilizer plough shank, the same occurring for peak force, power on traction bar and volumetric consumption. The specific consumption was lower at a depth of 0.17 m of fertilizer plough shank. Covering cultures and their handlings did not interfere in the performance of machines under inquiry.