The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the Brazilian experience

This paper attempts to explain why the Brazilian inter-bank interest rate is so high compared with rates practiced by other emerging economies. The interplay between the markets for bank reserves and government securities feeds into the inter-bank rate the risk premium of the Brazilian public debt.

External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Key factors in working capital management in the Brazilian market

Many studies have been conducted in corporate finance regarding long-term investment and financing decisions. However, short-term asset investments play a significant role in the balance sheet of companies. Moreover, financial managers dedicate significant amounts of time and effort to the subject of working capital management, balancing current assets and liabilities. This paper provides insights regarding the key factors of working capital management by exploring the internal variables of a number of companies. This study used data from 2,976 Brazilian public companies from 2001 to 2008, and found that debt level, size and growth rate can affect the working capital management of companies.

A link between sleep loss, glucose metabolism and adipokines

The present review evaluates the role of sleep and its alteration in triggering problems of glucose metabolism and the possible involvement of adipokines in this process. A reduction in the amount of time spent sleeping has become an endemic condition in modern society, and a search of the current literature has found important associations between sleep loss and alterations of nutritional and metabolic contexts. Studies suggest that sleep loss is associated with problems in glucose metabolism and a higher risk for the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The mechanism involved may be associated with the decreased efficacy of regulation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis by negative feedback mechanisms in sleep-deprivation conditions. In addition, changes in the circadian pattern of growth hormone (GH) secretion might also contribute to the alterations in glucose regulation observed during sleep loss. On the other hand, sleep deprivation stress affects adipokines - increasing tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) and decreasing leptin and adiponectin -, thus establishing a possible association between sleep-debt, adipokines and glucose metabolism. Thus, a modified release of adipokines resulting from sleep deprivation could lead to a chronic sub-inflammatory state that could play a central role in the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Further studies are necessary to investigate the role of sleep loss in adipokine release and its relationship with glucose metabolism.

Renegociação da dívida pública interna em condições de sobreendividamento

Renegotiation of the public debt in conditions of excessive debt. This paper studies the debt overhang models and maturity management models, and analyses both theoretically and historically the debt renegotiations which the final outcome is a lower public debt burden. From the theoretical view the renegotiation plans can be Pareto improving, both creditors and debtors can be better-off, and the value of the new debt will price the new reputation and debtors' willingness to pay. From the historical point of view, funded debts were the instrument that debtors used to improve reputation.

Independência do banco central e equilíbrio fiscal: algumas observações para o caso brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an imrovement in the fiscal balance.

Federalismo e endividamento subnacional: uma discussão sobre a sustentabilidade da dívida estadual

The subnational debt in Brazil was marked by successive bailouts by the federal government. The path of subnational debt induced some locals and state authorities to claim for further renegotiations. More specifically, some governors and mayors demanded a revision of the refinancing contracts. This article intends to present arguments sustained by simulations of the evolution of the path of the subnational debt, denying the necessity of changes in legal framework, which rules the state debt. The first section consists of a brief overview. The following section treats the institutional framework designed to safeguard the fiscal intertemporal balance. In the third section, the implications of new institutional framework on the subnational debt are approached; in the fourth, the possible causes that distorted the expected path of the debt are discussed. The fifth section analyses the future perspectives for the debt in general terms and focuses some specific cases, while the sixth section discusses the problem under a federal optics. Finally, the conclusion is presented.

The false promises of the (second) Washington consensus: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (1990-2003)

The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we show how, and to what extent, Latin American and Caribbean countries applied the precepts of the second Washington consensus, i.e. a consensus which stresses the capital account liberalization. Secondly, we highlight the effects of this set of reforms on their economies. Thus, we show that countries having most scrupulously followed these recommendations did not experience better economic results. On the contrary, their situation as regards inequality and debt is getting worse than others.

Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

From the 'Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade': intersectoral transfers and external credit in the Brazilian economy

The present paper examines the Brazilian experience from the 'Economic Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade'. Its aim is to advance an alternative measurement of the flows of extraordinary wealth (i.e. ground-rent and net external credit) available for appropriation in the Brazilian economy and to asses their relevance in sustaining the process of accumulation of industrial capital. That is done in order to provide further and more accurate evidence to the claim that the evolution of the Brazilian process of capital accumulation has been extremely dependent on the evolution of those masses of extraordinary wealth.

Matemática agradável

This paper suggests a reconsideration of the principle that public deficits should be financed by public debt. Two main reasons are offered. First, it is admitted that public debt is an economic variable whose time behaviour is better described by a first difference equation instead of an accounting identity. The convergence condition thus obtained requires either a nominal negative interest rate or that government bonds are used to raise tax income, hypotheses not theoretically granted. As a consequence, if primary surplus is not sufficient to match interests' payment, it will be observed an explosive trend in the public debt, the due interests and the money issuing. Therefore, it lacks support to the idea that public debt prevents inflation. Second, it is shown that financing public deficit through money issuing leads to a stable equilibrium money stock. The general conclusion is that, in order to simultaneously promote economic growth and inflation control, money issuing is preferable to public debt.

Globalização e inconversibilidade monetária

The central hypothesis of this article is that in the context of globalization, monetary inconvertibility is a crucial problem of peripheral countries. It begins with a brief review of the debate from a historical point of view and then stresses the contemporary opposite's views on the fragility of financial system of emerging countries: the original sin and the debt intolerance hypothesis. Despite of supporting the first one, the article goes further and explores the domestic implication of inconvertibility. It criticizes the jurisdicional uncertainty proposition showing that an inherent flaw in the store of value of emerging market currencies, derived from original sin is the main reason for de facto inconvertibility and underdevelopment of domestic financial system of these countries.

Dívida pública, poupança em conta corrente do governo e superávit primário: uma análise de sustentabilidade

On this paper, we propose a change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving. That concept excludes public investment from primary surplus. However, of that change has raised a question about if government current account saving represents a sustainable fiscal policy. Thus, this paper analyses if the change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving implies a meaning modification on the debt-to-GDP ratio path. The empirical analysis, which is based on Brazilian monthly data for the period 1999-2005, suggests that the change in fiscal target does not mean a lack of sustain-ability.