U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

The 2008 financial crisis and neoclassical economics

The 2008 global financial crisis was the consequence of the process of financialization, or the creation of massive fictitious financial wealth, that began in the 1980s, and of the hegemony of a reactionary ideology, namely, neoliberalism, based on self-regulated and efficient markets. Although capitalism is intrinsically unstable, the lessons from the stock-market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s were transformed into theories and institutions or regulations that led to the "30 glorious years of capitalism" (1948-1977) and that could have avoided a financial crisis as profound as the present one. It did not because a coalition of rentiers and "financists" achieved hegemony and, while deregulating the existing financial operations, refused to regulate the financial innovations that made these markets even more risky. Neoclassical economics played the role of a meta-ideology as it legitimized, mathematically and "scientifically", neoliberal ideology and deregulation. From this crisis a new capitalism will emerge, though its character is difficult to predict. It will not be financialized but the tendencies present in the 30 glorious years toward global and knowledge-based capitalism, where professionals will have more say than rentier capitalists, as well as the tendency to improve democracy by making it more social and participative, will b e resumed.

Germany's socio-economic model and the Euro crisis

Germany's socio-economic model, the "social market economy", was established in West Germany after World War II and extended to the unified Germany in 1990. During a prolonged recession after the adoption of the Euro in 1998, major reforms (Agenda 2010) were introduced which many consider as the key of Germany's recent success. The reforms had mixed results: employment increased but has consisted to a large extent of precarious low-wage jobs. Growth depended on export surpluses based on an internal real devaluation (low unit labour costs) which make Germany vulnerable to global recessions as in 2009. Overall inequality increased substantially.

Vulnerabilidade externa e composição da posição internacional de investimentos: Brasil 2001-2010

The aim of this paper is to indicate that there was a significant change in the composition of the Brazilian International Investment Position in the period 2001-2010: international reserves became higher than the external debt and decreased the share of foreign liabilities denominated in foreign currency, getting smaller that the participation of the external liabilities denominated in domestic currency. These tend to suffer a double devaluation (prices and exchange rates) in times of crisis, thus characterizing the reduction of the external vulnerability in the financial sphere as evidenced in the global crisis hatched in 2008.

Turkey's Accession to the European Union in terms of impact on the EU's security and defense policies: potential and drawbacks

This study explores the impact of Turkey's likely entry in the European Union (EU) in terms of the EU's foreign, security and defense policies. It reviews Turkish capabilities, namely its military capabilities, which could provide the EU with valuable defense assets. There are differences related to Turkey's relations with the EU, which have increasingly spilled over into the NATO, hindering the development of cooperation over crisis management operations. The article then delves in the implications of Turkey's strategic geographical location to EU policies. It reviews how far the EU and Turkey may have convergent interests in some of the neighboring regions, especially in the Middle East.

Rendering peacekeeping instrumental? The Brazilian approach to United Nations peacekeeping during the Lula da Silva years (2003-2010)

The article analyses how Brazilian state actions and policies regarding peace operations during the Presidency of Lula da Silva relate to the country's positions and attitudes towards United Nations peacekeeping. It argues that the inconsistencies identified on the Brazilian positions reflect the lack of a clear strategic horizon guiding the country's participation in UN peacekeeping, which consequentially hinders the country emergence as a great power.

Brazil and the nuclear issues in the years of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva government (2003-2010)

The present article is an analysis of Brazilian nuclear diplomacy and of the international relevance of the national nuclear program adopted during the two Presidential terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Particular attention will be given to the Brazilian position in the agreement on nuclear non-proliferation, to the role of mediation between Iran and the nuclear powers, and finally to the national ambitions concerning the industrial and military uses of the nuclear technologies.

Brazil and the economic, political, and environmental multilateralism: the Lula years (2003-2010)

This article discusses Brazil's multilateral policy under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration, highlighting economic, political and environmental themes. The main argument is that Brazil's multilateral relations during this government reached a new significance with the reinforcement of international coalitions and the articulation with the country's new development model. The country has been using multilateral forums as a way to achieve international projection and support for its development project, highlighting bargaining aspects, variable geometry coalitions and the strengthening of South-South cooperation

Brazil's strategic partnerships: an assessment of the Lula era (2003-2010)

This article examines the priority bilateral relations of Brazil, named "strategic partnerships", both because of their tradition and historical relevance and due to the existence of political and economic cooperation projects. An assessment of these relationships, especially under Lula's administration, is made in this work, bearing in mind the concept of "strategic partnerships" and its development in Brazilian foreign policy. There will be considered partnerships with the US; Argentina; Japan; China; India; South Africa and the European Union. In the article, the meaning of the increase in these relationships is interpreted on the grounds of its significance to the international insertion strategy of Brazil

A new Strategic Dialogue: Brazil-US relations in Lula's presidency (2003-2010)

The aim of this article is to examine Brazil and the United States bilateral relations from 2003/2010 and their strategic patterns during the Presidency of Luis Inácio Lula da Silva. The goal is to understand the development of this dialogue in the 21st century and its previous background in the Post Cold War world, identifying its evolution and change due to Brazil's growing regional and global role and US relative position

Brazilian foreign policy under President Lula (2003-2010): an overview

Foreign Minister of Brazil since 2003, Ambassador Celso Amorim outlines the main guidelines and accomplishments of Brazil's foreign policy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The article provides a full-fledged, although not exhaustive, narrative of a number of diplomatic initiatives championed by Brazil over the last eight years: from the gathering of the group of developing countries in a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Cancun to the negotiations that led to the Declaration of Tehran, as well as the challenges the country has been facing as its international weight grows.

Los desafíos a la reunificación de China y Taiwán: la Ley Antisecesión (2005) y el Acuerdo Marco de Cooperación Económica (2010)

El presente artículo tiene por objetivo analizar el problema de la reunificación entre la República Popular China y Taiwán en la última década, en el marco de dos hitos: por un lado, la promulgación de la Ley Antisecesión del 14 de marzo de 2005 y, por otro, la firma del Acuerdo Marco de Cooperación Económica el 30 de junio de 2010.

A cooperação técnica do Brasil com a África: comparando os governos Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) e Lula da Silva (2003-2010)

É consensual entre os analistas da Política Externa Brasileira o reconhecimento da priorização do eixo Sul-Sul nas estratégias de inserção internacional do país durante o governo Lula da Silva, bem como o papel de destaque concedido ao continente africano. Com o intuito de dar lastro empírico às análises sobre a retomada e repriorização das relações entre Brasil e África, este trabalho pretende analisar comparativamente a cooperação técnica provida pelo Brasil para os países africanos durante os governos Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) e Lula da Silva (2003-2010). Procura-se identificar e comparar o número e os tipos de acordos firmados, a dispersão geográfica desses acordos e a diversidade temática dos projetos de cooperação técnica horizontal desenvolvidos pelo Brasil naquele continente. A fonte principal dos dados analisados, ainda pouco explorada pela literatura acadêmica brasileira, é o banco de dados do Departamento de Atos Internacionais do Ministério das Relações Exteriores.

International drivers of Brazilian agricultural cooperation in Africa in the post-2008 economic crisis

This text focuses on the major drivers of Brazilian agricultural cooperation in Africa as conceived and pursued from 2004 to 2014, with emphasis on the impacts of political and economic international changes that took place in that period, and particularly the impacts of the 2008 economic crisis, in framing Brazil's foreign policy and development assistance initiatives. It addresses current international forces and developments at the systemic level, but also analyses recent economic domestic developments, in particular those directly related to Brazilian agriculture and those related to the policy framework of its evolving internationalization. Special attention is paid to the dual dimensions of Brazilian agricultural policy and to its projection in agricultural cooperation as pursed in Africa.

Obstrução do trato digestório em animais de companhia, atendidos em um Hospital Veterinário no ano de 2010

O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os tipos de obstrução do trato digestório, após ingestão de corpos estranhos, em animais de companhia, atendidos no Hospital Veterinário da Universidade Federal de Viçosa (HVT-UFV), durante o ano de 2010; a predisposição racial e por faixa etária; a localização da obstrução; os sintomas relacionados; os achados laboratoriais; o tratamento proposto e a evolução clínica dos pacientes. Foi observada predisposição para animais de raça pequena e de faixas etárias de até um ano e após cinco anos, com predileção pela raça Teckel. O maior número de corpos estranhos foi encontrado no estômago e intestinos, com maior gravidade e elevada taxa de mortalidade, em relação aos encontrados no esôfago. O maior período de evolução do quadro clínico, desde a observação inicial, contribuiu para maiores taxas de mortalidade. A sintomatologia clínica dos animais foi variada, mas quadros de apatia e de anorexia ocorreram na maioria dos casos. Regurgitação e vômito foram frequentes, quando a localização do corpo estranho foi esofágica ou gastrointestinal, respectivamente. Os resultados dos exames laboratoriais foram inespecíficos.