Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Symmetric pollen mitosis I and suppression of pollen mitosis II prevent pollen development in Brachiaria jubata (Gramineae)

Microsporogenesis and pollen development were analyzed in a tetraploid (2n = 4x = 36) accession of the forage grass Brachiaria jubata (BRA 007820) from the Embrapa Beef Cattle Brachiaria collection that showed partial male sterility. Microsporocytes and pollen grains were prepared by squashing and staining with 0.5% propionic carmine. The meiotic process was typical of polyploids, with precocious chromosome migration to the poles and laggards in both meiosis I and II, resulting in tetrads with micronuclei in some microspores. After callose dissolution, microspores were released into the anther locule and appeared to be normal. Although each microspore initiated its differentiation into a pollen grain, in 11.1% of them nucleus polarization was not observed, i.e., pollen mitosis I was symmetric and the typical hemispherical cell plate was not detected. After a central cytokinesis, two equal-sized cells showing equal chromatin condensation and the same nuclear shape and size were formed. Generative cells and vegetative cells could not be distinguished. These cells did not undergo the second pollen mitosis and after completion of pollen wall synthesis each gave rise to a sterile and uninucleate pollen grain. The frequency of abnormal pollen mitosis varied among flowers and also among inflorescences. All plants were equally affected. The absence of fertile sperm cells in a considerable amount of pollen grains in this accession of B. jubata may compromise its use in breeding and could explain, at least in part, why seed production is low when compared with the amount of flowers per raceme.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Towards a unified theory of health-disease: II. Holopathogenesis

This article presents a systematic framework for modeling several classes of illness-sickness-disease named as Holopathogenesis. Holopathogenesis is defined as processes of over-determination of diseases and related conditions taken as a whole, comprising selected facets of the complex object Health. First, a conceptual background of Holopathogenesis is presented as a series of significant interfaces (biomolecular-immunological, physiopathological-clinical, epidemiological-ecosocial). Second, propositions derived from Holopathogenesis are introduced in order to allow drawing the disease-illness-sickness complex as a hierarchical network of networks. Third, a formalization of intra- and inter-level correspondences, over-determination processes, effects and links of Holopathogenesis models is proposed. Finally, the Holopathogenesis frame is evaluated as a comprehensive theoretical pathology taken as a preliminary step towards a unified theory of health-disease.

In vitro and in vivo experimental models for drug screening and development for Chagas disease

Chagas disease, a neglected illness, affects nearly 12-14 million people in endemic areas of Latin America. Although the occurrence of acute cases sharply has declined due to Southern Cone Initiative efforts to control vector transmission, there still remain serious challenges, including the maintenance of sustainable public policies for Chagas disease control and the urgent need for better drugs to treat chagasic patients. Since the introduction of benznidazole and nifurtimox approximately 40 years ago, many natural and synthetic compounds have been assayed against Trypanosoma cruzi, yet only a few compounds have advanced to clinical trials. This reflects, at least in part, the lack of consensus regarding appropriate in vitro and in vivo screening protocols as well as the lack of biomarkers for treating parasitaemia. The development of more effective drugs requires (i) the identification and validation of parasite targets, (ii) compounds to be screened against the targets or the whole parasite and (iii) a panel of minimum standardised procedures to advance leading compounds to clinical trials. This third aim was the topic of the workshop entitled Experimental Models in Drug Screening and Development for Chagas Disease, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on the 25th and 26th of November 2008 by the Fiocruz Program for Research and Technological Development on Chagas Disease and Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative. During the meeting, the minimum steps, requirements and decision gates for the determination of the efficacy of novel drugs for T. cruzi control were evaluated by interdisciplinary experts and an in vitro and in vivo flowchart was designed to serve as a general and standardised protocol for screening potential drugs for the treatment of Chagas disease.

Modeling growth and yield of loblolly pinestands under intensive management

Abstract:The objective of this work was to develop and validate a prognosis system for volume yield and basal area of intensively managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands, using stand and diameter class models compatible in basal area estimates. The data used in the study were obtained from plantations located in northern Uruguay. For model validation without data loss, a three-phase validation scheme was applied: first, the equations were fitted without the validation database; then, model validation was carried out; and, finally, the database was regrouped to recalibrate the parameter values. After the validation and final parameterization of the models, a simulation of the first commercial thinning was carried out. The developed prognosis system was precise and accurate in estimating basal area production per hectare or per diameter classes. There was compatibility in basal area estimates between diameter class and whole stand models, with a mean difference of -0.01 m2ha-1. The validation scheme applied is logic and consistent, since information on the accuracy and precision of the models is obtained without the loss of any information in the estimation of the models' parameters.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Structural changes in latosols of the cerrado region: II - soil compressive behavior and modeling of additional compaction

Currently in Brazil, as in other parts of the world, the concern is great with the increase of degraded agricultural soil, which is mostly related to the occurrence of soil compaction. Although soil texture is recognized as a very important component in the soil compressive behaviors, there are few studies that quantify its influence on the structural changes of Latosols in the Brazilian Cerrado region. This study aimed to evaluate structural changes and the compressive behavior of Latosols in Rio Verde, Goiás, through the modeling of additional soil compaction. The study was carried out using five Latosols with very different textures, under different soil compaction levels. Water retention and soil compression curves, and bearing capacity models were determined from undisturbed samples collected on the B horizons. Results indicated that clayey and very clayey Latosols were more susceptible to compression than medium-textured soils. Soil compression curves at density values associate with edaphic functions were used to determine the beneficial pressure (σ b) , i.e., pressure with optimal water retention, and critical pressure (σcrMAC), i.e., pressure with macroporosity below critical levels. These pressure values were higher than the preconsolidation pressure (σp), and therefore characterized as additional compaction. Based on the compressive behavior of these Latosols, it can be concluded that the combined preconsolidation pressure, beneficial pressure and critical pressure allow a better understanding of compression processes of Latosols.

Assessment of integration of the leprosy program into primary health care in Aracaju, state of Sergipe, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological and operational characteristics of the Leprosy Program before and after its integration into the Primary healthcare Services of the municipality of Aracaju-Sergipe, Brazil. METHODS: Data were drawn from the national database. The study periods were divided into preintegration (1996-2000) and postintegration (2001-2007). Annual rates of epidemiological detection were calculated. Frequency data on clinico-epidemiological variables of cases detected and treated for the two periods were compared using the Chi-squared (χ2) test adopting a 5% level of significance. RESULTS: Rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, were greater for the postintegration period and were higher than rates recorded for Brazil as a whole during the same periods. A total of 780 and 1,469 cases were registered during the preintegration and postintegration periods, respectively. Observations for the postintegration period were as follows: I) a higher proportion of cases with disability grade assessed at diagnosis, with increase of 60.9% to 78.8% (p < 0.001), and at end of treatment, from 41.4% to 44.4% (p < 0.023); II) an increase in proportion of cases detected by contact examination, from 2.1% to 4.1% (p < 0.001); and III) a lower level of treatment default with a decrease from 5.64 to 3.35 (p < 0.008). Only 34% of cases registered from 2001 to 2007 were examined. CONCLUSIONS: The shift observed in rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, during the postintegration period indicate an increased level of health care access. The fall in number of patients abandoning treatment indicates greater adherence to treatment. However, previous shortcomings in key actions, pivotal to attaining the outcomes and impact envisaged for the program, persisted in the postintegration period.

Studies on the mineral nutrition and fertilization of the passion fruit plant (Passiflora edulis f. flavicarpa): II - placement of fertilizer phosphorus

A localização do superfosfato (marcado com P32) no maracujá em produção foi estudada em condições de plantação comercial. Verificou-se que as aplicações em sulcos circulares ou faixas superficiais ao redor da planta tem eficiência equivalente sendo esses métodos três vezes superiores à localização do adubo em furos no solo. A pulverização foliar, por sua vez, mostrou-se 20 vezes mais eficiente que a aplicação no solo de acordo com os dois primeiros métodos.

Studies on the mineral nutrition and fertilization of the passion fruit plant (Passiflora edulis F. flavicarpa): II. placement of fertilizer phosphorus

1. Tagged superphosphate was applied to 2.5 year old passion fruit plants from a commercial plantation established in a sandy loam. 2. 100 grams of the fertilizer were distributed in the following ways: in a circular furrow 20 cm around the plant 40 cm from the stems; in a circular strip 10 cm wide, 40 cm from the stems; in six holes around the plants, 40 cm from the stems 20 cm deep, 2.5 cm in diameter. 3. 10 grams of the fertilizer in 11 of water were sprayed to the leaves. 4. Three weeks after the treatments were made, leaf samples were taken for analysis. 5. Determinations of specific activities both in the leaves and in the fertilizer used have shown that R in the plant was derived from the superphosphate in the following relative proportions (by making the first treatment equal to 100): circular furrow = 100; circular strip = 120; holes = 30; foliar spray = 230.

Observations on the dipteran fauna in a focus of dermal leishmaniasis in the State of Minas Gerais: II. The distribution of families in relation to their medical, veterinary and economic importance

Miniature light traps used to collect Phlebotominae in a focus of dermal leishmaniasis in the eastern part of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Over a period of seven months, the other Diptera captured in 179 light trap samples were identified to family level. The traps were placed in eight localities which constituted three different biotopes: three woodland aresas, cultivated land, and a peridomestic site. A comparison is made between the totals of Dipeterans collected in each biotope, the total numbers of families collected in each biotope and the estimated indices of diversity. Dendograms representing the degrees of association between families of Diptera in different biotopes are presented. Some families of Diptera are uniformly distributed throughout the study area; a few families seem to have become adapted to areas where human activity has induced the greatest ecological changes. The impact between Dipterans and human well-being is discussed. The availabel evidence indicates that transmission of dermal leishmaniasis does not occur in areas where sand flies can be captured in greatest densities.

Behavior of triatomines (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) vectors of Chagas' disease. II. Influence of feeding, lighting and time of day on the number of mating, mating speed and duration of copulation of Panstrongylus megistus (Burm, 1835) under laboratory conditions

To determine in influence of feeding, lighting and time of day on the copulating behavior of Panstrongylus megistus, 480 insect pairs were divided into four groups of 120 each and tested in the following respective situations: without food deprivation (F.D.), with five days of F.D., with ten days of F.D., and with 20 days of F. D. The tests were performed between 9:00 a.m. to 12:00a.m. and 7:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., with light (700-1400 lux) and in the dark (1.4-2.8 lux) and behavior was recorded by the time sampling technique. Mating spped (MS) and duration of copulation (DC) were also calculated for each situation. The maximum frequency of copulation was observed after five days of F.D., at night, in the dark (n = 16), and the minimum was observed for recently-fed pairs, at night, with light (n = 4). Males approached females more often than females approached males. MS was lowest in pairs with twenty days of F.D., at night, with light (X = 23.0 ± 16.0 minutes), and highest in recently-fed pairs, during the day, with light (X = 2.9 ± 2.5 minutes). DC was shortest in recently-fed insects, during the day, in the dark (X = 23.5 ± 6.7 minutes), and longest in recently-fed animals, at night, in the dark (X = 38.3 ± 6.9 minutes).

Ecology of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a restricted focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northern Venezuela: II. Species composition in relation to habitat, catching method and hour of catching

The ecology of phlebotomine sandflies in an endemic focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northern Venezuela (San Esteban, Carabobo State) was investigated through a year-term study. Three different habitats: viz. a house, a pridomestic area and a sylvatic area, were covered and the species composition, the abundance and occurrence of each species were analyzed in relation to the habitats, catching methods and hour of catching. L. panamensis, L. gomezi and L. ovallesi are the species which bite man, although almost exclusively at night. All of them hide by day and are common in the sylvatic area. Moreover, L. panamensis and L. gomezi successfully approach the house and seem to settle in the peridomestic area. L. shannoni and L. olmeca bicolor also approach and accidentally bite man. L. trinidadensis, L. atroclavata and L. cayennensis are the common non-antrhopophilic species in the area.