29 resultados para Complex systems prediction

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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The opportunities and challenges for the study and control of parasitic diseases in the 21st century are both exciting and daunting. Based on the contributions from this field over the last part of the 20th century, we should expect new biologic concepts will continue to come from this discipline to enrich the general area of biomedical research. The general nature of such a broad category of infections is difficult to distill, but they often depend on well-orchestrated, complex life cycles and they often involve chronic, relatively well-balanced host/parasite relationships. Such characteristics force biological systems to their limits, and this may be why studies of these diseases have made fundamental contributions to molecular biology, cell biology and immunology. However, if these findings are to continue apace, parasitologists must capitalize on the new findings being generated though genomics, bioinformatics, proteomics, and genetic manipulations of both host and parasite. Furthermore, they must do so based on sound biological insights and the use of hypothesis-driven studies of these complex systems. A major challenge over the next century will be to capitalize on these new findings and translate them into successful, sustainable strategies for control, elimination and eradication of the parasitic diseases that pose major public health threats to the physical and cognitive development and health of so many people worldwide.

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This article introduces a simplified model for the theoretical study of the physical adsorption process of gaseous He on the planes (100) and (111) of the solid Xe matrix, whose crystalline structure is face centered cubic (fcc). The Ab initio calculations were carried out at the MP2 level of theory employing basis sets obtained through the Generator Coordinate Method, where the core electrons were represented by a pseudopotential. The calculated adsorption energies for the (100) and (111) faces are 5,39 and 4,18 kJ/mol, respectively. This simplified model is expected to be suitable for treating complex systems of applied interest.

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Genetic algorithm is an optimization technique based on Darwin evolution theory. In last years its application in chemistry is increasing significantly due the special characteristics for optimization of complex systems. The basic principles and some further modifications implemented to improve its performance are presented, as well as a historical development. A numerical example of a function optimization is also shown to demonstrate how the algorithm works in an optimization process. Finally several chemistry applications realized until now is commented to serve as parameter to future applications in this field.

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Neural Networks are a set of mathematical methods and computer programs designed to simulate the information process and the knowledge acquisition of the human brain. In last years its application in chemistry is increasing significantly, due the special characteristics for model complex systems. The basic principles of two types of neural networks, the multi-layer perceptrons and radial basis functions, are introduced, as well as, a pruning approach to architecture optimization. Two analytical applications based on near infrared spectroscopy are presented, the first one for determination of nitrogen content in wheat leaves using multi-layer perceptrons networks and second one for determination of BRIX in sugar cane juices using radial basis functions networks.

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Chemometric activities in Brazil are described according to three phases: before the existence of microcomputers in the 1970s, through the initial stages of microcomputer use in the 1980s and during the years of extensive microcomputer applications of the ´90s and into this century. Pioneering activities in both the university and industry are emphasized. Active research areas in chemometrics are cited including experimental design, pattern recognition and classification, curve resolution for complex systems and multivariate calibration. New trends in chemometrics, especially higher order methods for treating data, are emphasized.

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The marine environment is certainly one of the most complex systems to study, not only because of the challenges posed by the nature of the waters, but especially due to the interactions of physical, chemical and biological processes that control the cycles of the elements. Together with analytical chemists, oceanographers have been making a great effort in the advancement of knowledge of the distribution patterns of trace elements and processes that determine their biogeochemical cycles and influences on the climate of the planet. The international academic community is now in prime position to perform the first study on a global scale for observation of trace elements and their isotopes in the marine environment (GEOTRACES) and to evaluate the effects of major global changes associated with the influences of megacities distributed around the globe. This action can only be performed due to the development of highly sensitive detection methods and the use of clean sampling and handling techniques, together with a joint international program working toward the clear objective of expanding the frontiers of the biogeochemistry of the oceans and related topics, including climate change issues and ocean acidification associated with alterations in the carbon cycle. It is expected that the oceanographic data produced this coming decade will allow a better understanding of biogeochemical cycles, and especially the assessment of changes in trace elements and contaminants in the oceans due to anthropogenic influences, as well as its effects on ecosystems and climate. Computational models are to be constructed to simulate the conditions and processes of the modern oceans and to allow predictions. The environmental changes arising from human activity since the 18th century (also called the Anthropocene) have made the Earth System even more complex. Anthropogenic activities have altered both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and the legacy of these impacts in the oceans include: a) pollution of the marine environment by solid waste, including plastics; b) pollution by chemical and medical (including those for veterinary use) substances such as hormones, antibiotics, legal and illegal drugs, leading to possible endocrine disruption of marine organisms; and c) ocean acidification, the collateral effect of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere, irreversible in the human life time scale. Unfortunately, the anthropogenic alteration of the hydrosphere due to inputs of plastics, metal, hydrocarbons, contaminants of emerging concern and even with formerly "exotic" trace elements, such us rare earth elements is likely to accelerate in the near future. These emerging contaminants would likely soon present difficulties for studies in pristine environments. All this knowledge brings with it a great responsibility: helping to envisage viable adaptation and mitigation solutions to the problems identified. The greatest challenge faced by Brazil is currently to create a framework project to develop education, science and technology applied to oceanography and related areas. This framework would strengthen the present working groups and enhance capacity building, allowing a broader Brazilian participation in joint international actions and scientific programs. Recently, the establishment of the National Institutes of Science and Technology (INCTs) for marine science, and the creation of the National Institute of Oceanographic and Hydrological Research represent an exemplary start. However, the participation of the Brazilian academic community in the latest assaults on the frontier of chemical oceanography is extremely limited, largely due to: i. absence of physical infrastructure for the preparation and processing of field samples at ultra-trace level; ii. limited access to oceanographic cruises, due to the small number of Brazilian vessels and/or absence of "clean" laboratories on board; iii. restricted international cooperation; iv. limited analytical capacity of Brazilian institutions for the analysis of trace elements in seawater; v. high cost of ultrapure reagents associated with processing a large number of samples, and vi. lack of qualified technical staff. Advances in knowledge, analytic capabilities and the increasing availability of analytical resources available today offer favorable conditions for chemical oceanography to grow. The Brazilian academic community is maturing and willing to play a role in strengthening the marine science research programs by connecting them with educational and technological initiatives in order to preserve the oceans and to promote the development of society.

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An experiment was proposed applying the Chemometric approach of Multivariate Analysis for inclusion in undergraduate Chemistry courses to promote and expand the use of this analytical-statistical tool. The experiment entails the determination of the acid dissociation constant of dyes via UV-Vis electronic spectrophotometry. The dyes used show from simple equilibrium to very complex systems involving up to four protolytic species with high spectral overlap. The Chemometric methodology was more efficient than univariate methods. For use in classes, it is up to the teacher to decide which systems should be utilized given the time constraints and laboratory conditions.

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The brain is a complex system, which produces emergent properties such as those associated with activity-dependent plasticity in processes of learning and memory. Therefore, understanding the integrated structures and functions of the brain is well beyond the scope of either superficial or extremely reductionistic approaches. Although a combination of zoom-in and zoom-out strategies is desirable when the brain is studied, constructing the appropriate interfaces to connect all levels of analysis is one of the most difficult challenges of contemporary neuroscience. Is it possible to build appropriate models of brain function and dysfunctions with computational tools? Among the best-known brain dysfunctions, epilepsies are neurological syndromes that reach a variety of networks, from widespread anatomical brain circuits to local molecular environments. One logical question would be: are those complex brain networks always producing maladaptive emergent properties compatible with epileptogenic substrates? The present review will deal with this question and will try to answer it by illustrating several points from the literature and from our laboratory data, with examples at the behavioral, electrophysiological, cellular and molecular levels. We conclude that, because the brain is a complex system compatible with the production of emergent properties, including plasticity, its functions should be approached using an integrated view. Concepts such as brain networks, graphics theory, neuroinformatics, and e-neuroscience are discussed as new transdisciplinary approaches dealing with the continuous growth of information about brain physiology and its dysfunctions. The epilepsies are discussed as neurobiological models of complex systems displaying maladaptive plasticity.

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This study aimed to investigate the potential use of magnetic susceptibility (MS) as pedotransfer function to predict soil attributes under two sugarcane harvesting management systems. For each area of 1 ha (one with green sugarcane mechanized harvesting and other one with burnt sugarcane manual harvesting), 126 soil samples were collected and subjected to laboratory analysis to determine soil physical, chemical and mineralogical attributes and for measuring of MS. Data were submitted to descriptive statistics by calculating the mean and coefficient of variation. In order to compare the means in the different harvesting management systems it was carried out the Tukey test at a significance level of 5%. In order to investigate the correlation of the MS with other soil properties it was made the correlation test and aiming to assess how the MS contributes to the prediction of soil complex attributes it was made the multiple linear regressions. The results demonstrate that MS showed, in both sugarcane harvesting management systems, statistical correlation with chemical, physical and mineralogical soil attributes and it also showed potential to be used as pedotransfer function to predict attributes of the studied oxisol.

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As a rule, soils of the subtropical and tropical regions, in which rainfall is not limiting, are acidic, and low in phosphorus, and, to a less extent, in other macro and micronutrients as well, such a sulfur, boron and zinc. The establishment of a permanent agricultural prac. tice therefore, demands relatively high usage of liming and phosphatic fertilization, to begin with. Several approaches, not mutually exclusive, could be used in order to increase the efficiency of utilization of soil and fertilizer phosphorus so that, goal of diminishing costs of production is reached. The use of liming materials bringing up pH to 6.0-6.5 causes the conversion of iron and aluminum phosphates to more available calcium phosphates; on the other hand, by raising calcium saturation in the exchange complex, it improves the development and operation if the root system which allows c or a higher utilization of all soil nutrients, including phosphorus, and helps of stand water deficits which may occur. The role of mycorrhizal fungi should be considered as a way of increasing soil and fertilizer P utilization, as well as the limitations thereof. Screening of and breeding for varieties with higher efficiency of uptake and utilization of soil and fertilizer phosphorus leads to a reduction in cost of inputs and to higher benefit/cost ratios. Corrective fertilization using ground rock phosphate helps to saturate the fixation power of the soil thereby reducing, as a consequence, the need for phosphorus in the maintenance fertilization. Maintenance fertilization, in which soluble phos-phatic sources are used, could be improved by several means whose performance has been proved: limimg, granula tion, placement, use of magnesium salts. Last, cost of phosphate fertilization could be further reduced, without impairing yields, through impairing yields, through changes in technology designed to obtain products better adapted to local conditions and to the availability or raw materials and energy sources.

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Six hundred and ninety three male inmates from three penitentiaries, two (A and B) maximum-security systems and one (C) minimum-security facility, located in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil were studied for the presence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies, using a cross-sectional design. The search for anti-HIV antibodies in 693 samples of sera collected was carried out by two serological tests: (a) the Microparticle enzyme immunoassay-HIV-1 and HIV-2 (MEIA) (Abbott Laboratories) and (b) the Western Blot-HIV-1 (WB) (Cambridge Biotech Corporation) to confirm positive results with MEIA. Sera reactivity for HIV antibodies was 14.4%. The highest frequency of anti-HIV antibodies was found in the A and B maximum-security prisons: 17% and 21.5%, respectively. In prison C, the frequency of reagents was 10.9%. Seventy three inmates, initially negative in the MEIA test, were checked again five and seven months later. Three of them, all from the maximum-security facilities, became reactive in the MEIA test, with confirmation in the WB, suggesting that serological conversion had occurred after imprisonment.

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The no-till system with complex cropping sequences may improve the structural quality and carbon (C) sequestration in soils of the tropics. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of cropping sequences after eight years under the no-till system on the physical properties and C sequestration in an Oxisol in the municipality of Jaboticabal, Sao Paulo, Brazil. A randomized split-block design with three replications was used. The treatments were combinations of three summer cropping sequences - corn/corn (Zea mays L.) (CC), soybean/soybean (Glycine max L. Merryll) (SS), and soybean-corn (SC); and seven winter crops - corn, sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), oilseed radish (Raphanus sativus L.), pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum (L.) Leeke), pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp), grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), and sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.). Soil samples were taken at the 0-10 cm depth after eight years of experimentation. Soil under SC and CC had higher mean weight diameter (3.63 and 3.55 mm, respectively) and geometric mean diameter (3.55 and 2.92 mm) of the aggregates compared to soil under SS (3.18 and 2.46 mm). The CC resulted in the highest soil organic C content (17.07 g kg-1), soil C stock (15.70 Mg ha-1), and rate of C sequestration (0.70 Mg ha-1 yr-1) among the summer crops. Among the winter crops, soil under pigeon pea had the highest total porosity (0.50 m³ m-3), and that under sunn hemp had the highest water stable aggregates (93.74 %). In addition, sunn hemp did not differ from grain sorghum and contained the highest soil organic C content (16.82 g kg-1) and also had the highest rate of C sequestration (0.67 Mg ha-1 yr-1). The soil resistance to penetration was the lower limit of the least limiting water range, while the upper limit was air-filled porosity for soil bulk densities higher than 1.39 kg dm-3 for all cropping sequences. Within the SC sequence, soil under corn and pigeon pea increased least limiting water range by formation of biopores because soil resistance to penetration decreased with the increase in soil bulk density.

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The objective of this work was to assess the effects of conventional tillage and of different direct seeding mulch-based cropping systems (DMC) on soil nematofauna characteristics. The long-term field experiment was carried out in the highlands of Madagascar on an andic Dystrustept soil. Soil samples were taken once a year during three successive years (14 to 16 years after installation of the treatments) from a 0-5-cm soil layer of a conventional tillage system and of three kinds of DMC: direct seeding on mulch from rotation soybean-maize residues; direct seeding of maize-maize rotation on living mulch of silverleaf (Desmodium uncinatum); direct seeding of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris)-soybean rotation on living mulch of kikuyu grass (Pennisetum clandestinum). The samples were compared with samples from natural fallows. The soil nematofauna, characterized by the abundance of different trophic groups and indices (MI, maturity index; EI and SI, enrichment and structure indices), allowed the discrimination of the different cropping systems. The different DMC treatments had a more complex soil food web than the tillage treatment: SI and MI were significantly greater in DMC systems. Moreover, DMC with dead mulch had a lower density of free-living nematodes than DMC with living mulch, which suggested a lower microbial activity.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate sampling density on the prediction accuracy of soil orders, with high spatial resolution, in a viticultural zone of Serra Gaúcha, Southern Brazil. A digital elevation model (DEM), a cartographic base, a conventional soil map, and the Idrisi software were used. Seven predictor variables were calculated and read along with soil classes in randomly distributed points, with sampling densities of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 points per hectare. Data were used to train a decision tree (Gini) and three artificial neural networks: adaptive resonance theory, fuzzy ARTMap; self‑organizing map, SOM; and multi‑layer perceptron, MLP. Estimated maps were compared with the conventional soil map to calculate omission and commission errors, overall accuracy, and quantity and allocation disagreement. The decision tree was less sensitive to sampling density and had the highest accuracy and consistence. The SOM was the less sensitive and most consistent network. The MLP had a critical minimum and showed high inconsistency, whereas fuzzy ARTMap was more sensitive and less accurate. Results indicate that sampling densities used in conventional soil surveys can serve as a reference to predict soil orders in Serra Gaúcha.

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The objective of this work was to develop uni- and multivariate models to predict maximum soil shear strength (τmax) under different normal stresses (σn), water contents (U), and soil managements. The study was carried out in a Rhodic Haplustox under Cerrado (control area) and under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems. Undisturbed soil samples were taken in the 0.00-0.05 m layer and subjected to increasing U and σn, in shear strength tests. The uni- and multivariate models - respectively τmax=10(a+bU) and τmax=10(a+bU+cσn) - were significant in all three soil management systems evaluated and they satisfactorily explain the relationship between U, σn, and τmax. The soil under Cerrado has the highest shear strength (τ) estimated with the univariate model, regardless of the soil water content, whereas the soil under conventional tillage shows the highest values with the multivariate model, which were associated to the lowest water contents at the soil consistency limits in this management system.