Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.

CALIBRATION AND USE OF AN IN-HOUSE ANTI-MEASLES IgG STANDARD SERUM

For the purpose of research a large quantity of anti-measles IgG working reference serum was needed. A pool of sera from five teenagers was prepared and named Alexandre Herculano (AH). In order to calibrate the AH serum, 18 EIA assays were performed testing in parallel AH and the 2nd International Standard 1990, Anti-Measles Antibody, 66/202 (IS) in a range of dilutions (from 1/50 to 1/25600). A method which compared parallel lines resulting from the graphic representation of the results of laboratory tests was used to estimate the power of AH relative to IS. A computer programme written by one of the authors was used to analyze the data and make potency estimates. Another method of analysis was used, comparing logistic curves relating serum concentrations with optical density by EIA. For that purpose an existing computer programme (WRANL) was used. The potency of AH relative to IS, by either method, was estimated to be 2.4. As IS has 5000 milli international units (mIU) of anti-measles IgG per millilitre (ml), we concluded that AH has 12000 mIU/ml.

Modelling Amazonian forest eddy covariance data: a comparison of big leaf versus sun/shade models for the C-14 tower at Manaus I. Canopy photosynthesis

In this study, we concentrate on modelling gross primary productivity using two simple approaches to simulate canopy photosynthesis: "big leaf" and "sun/shade" models. Two approaches for calibration are used: scaling up of canopy photosynthetic parameters from the leaf to the canopy level and fitting canopy biochemistry to eddy covariance fluxes. Validation of the models is achieved by using eddy covariance data from the LBA site C14. Comparing the performance of both models we conclude that numerically (in terms of goodness of fit) and qualitatively, (in terms of residual response to different environmental variables) sun/shade does a better job. Compared to the sun/shade model, the big leaf model shows a lower goodness of fit and fails to respond to variations in the diffuse fraction, also having skewed responses to temperature and VPD. The separate treatment of sun and shade leaves in combination with the separation of the incoming light into direct beam and diffuse make sun/shade a strong modelling tool that catches more of the observed variability in canopy fluxes as measured by eddy covariance. In conclusion, the sun/shade approach is a relatively simple and effective tool for modelling photosynthetic carbon uptake that could be easily included in many terrestrial carbon models.

Calibration of the century, apsim and ndicea models of decomposition and n mineralization of plant residues in the humid tropics

The aim of this study was to calibrate the CENTURY, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for estimating decomposition and N mineralization rates of plant organic materials (Arachis pintoi, Calopogonium mucunoides, Stizolobium aterrimum, Stylosanthes guyanensis) for 360 days in the Atlantic rainforest bioma of Brazil. The models´ default settings overestimated the decomposition and N-mineralization of plant residues, underlining the fact that the models must be calibrated for use under tropical conditions. For example, the APSIM model simulated the decomposition of the Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residues with an error rate of 37.62 and 48.23 %, respectively, by comparison with the observed data, and was the least accurate model in the absence of calibration. At the default settings, the NDICEA model produced an error rate of 10.46 and 14.46 % and the CENTURY model, 21.42 and 31.84 %, respectively, for Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residue decomposition. After calibration, the models showed a high level of accuracy in estimating decomposition and N- mineralization, with an error rate of less than 20 %. The calibrated NDICEA model showed the highest level of accuracy, followed by the APSIM and CENTURY. All models performed poorly in the first few months of decomposition and N-mineralization, indicating the need of an additional parameter for initial microorganism growth on the residues that would take the effect of leaching due to rainfall into account.

Determination of sulfur in diesel using ATR/FTIR and multivariate calibration

The aim of this present work was to provide a more fast, simple and less expensive to analyze sulfur content in diesel samples than by the standard methods currently used. Thus, samples of diesel fuel with sulfur concentrations varying from 400 and 2500 mgkg-1 were analyzed by two methodologies: X-ray fluorescence, according to ASTM D4294 and by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR). The spectral data obtained from FTIR were used to build multivariate calibration models by partial least squares (PLS). Four models were built in three different ways: 1) a model using the full spectra (665 to 4000 cm-1), 2) two models using some specific spectrum regions and 3) a model with variable selected by classic method of variable selection stepwise. The model obtained by variable selection stepwise and the model built with region spectra between 665 and 856 cm-1 and 1145 and 2717 cm-1 showed better results in the determination of sulfur content.

On-site calibration of a phase fraction meter by an inverse technique

The formal calibration procedure of a phase fraction meter is based on registering the outputs resulting from imposed phase fractions at known flow regimes. This can be straightforwardly done in laboratory conditions, but is rarely the case in industrial conditions, and particularly for on-site applications. Thus, there is a clear need for less restrictive calibration methods regarding to the prior knowledge of the complete set of inlet conditions. A new procedure is proposed in this work for the on-site construction of the calibration curve from total flown mass values of the homogeneous dispersed phase. The solution is obtained by minimizing a convenient error functional, assembled with data from redundant tests to handle the intrinsic ill-conditioned nature of the problem. Numerical simulations performed for increasing error levels demonstrate that acceptable calibration curves can be reconstructed, even from total mass measured within a precision of up to 2%. Consequently, the method can readily be applied, especially in on-site calibration problems in which classical procedures fail due to the impossibility of having a strict control of all the input/output parameters.

Gestão do conhecimento usando data mining: estudo de caso na Universidade Federal de Lavras

A gestão do conhecimento abrange toda a forma de gerar, armazenar, distribuir e utilizar o conhecimento, tornando necessária a utilização de tecnologias de informação para facilitar esse processo, devido ao grande aumento no volume de dados. A descoberta de conhecimento em banco de dados é uma metodologia que tenta solucionar esse problema e o data mining é uma técnica que faz parte dessa metodologia. Este artigo desenvolve, aplica e analisa uma ferramenta de data mining, para extrair conhecimento referente à produção científica das pessoas envolvidas com a pesquisa na Universidade Federal de Lavras. A metodologia utilizada envolveu a pesquisa bibliográfica, a pesquisa documental e o método do estudo de caso. As limitações encontradas na análise dos resultados indicam que ainda é preciso padronizar o modo do preenchimento dos currículos Lattes para refinar as análises e, com isso, estabelecer indicadores. A contribuição foi gerar um banco de dados estruturado, que faz parte de um processo maior de desenvolvimento de indicadores de ciência e tecnologia, para auxiliar na elaboração de novas políticas de gestão científica e tecnológica e aperfeiçoamento do sistema de ensino superior brasileiro.

The relationships between selected anthropometric and socio-economic data in schoolchildren from different social strata in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The nutritional status according to anthropometric data was assessed in 756 schoolchildren from 5 low-income state schools and in one private school in the same part of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The prevalence of stunting and wasting (cut-off point: <90% ht/age and <80% wt/ht) ranged in the public schools from 6.2 to 15.2% and 3.3 to 24.0%, respectively, whereas the figures for the private school were 2.3 and 3.5%, respectively. Much more obesity was found in the private school (18.0%) than in the state schools (0.8 - 6.2%). Nutritional problems seem to develop more severely in accordance with the increasing age of the children. Therefore it appears advisable to assess schoolchildren within the context of a nutritional surveillance system.

Agreement between data obtained from repeated interviews with a six-years interval

The objective of the study was to compare information collected through face-to-face interviews at first time and six years later in a city of Southeastern Brazil. In 1998, 32 mothers (N=32) of children aged 20 to 30 months answered a face-to-face interview with structured questions regarding their children's brushing habits. Six years later this same interview was repeated with the same mothers. Both interviews were compared for overall agreement, kappa and weighted kappa. Overall agreement between both interviews varied from 41 to 96%. Kappa values ranged from 0.00 to 0.65 (very bad to good) without any significant differences. The results showed lack of agreement when the same interview is conducted six years later, showing that the recall bias can be a methodological problem of interviews.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

Trends of T. cruzi infection based on data from blood bank screening

Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiânia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hem agglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5% ). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

Reduced schedule of human anti-rabies immunization with Fuenzalida & Palacios vaccine: additional data

It was reevaluated a reduced schedule for anti-rabies post-exposure immunization with newborn mice nervous tissue vaccine (Fuenzalida 8c Palacios) in a group of 30 non exposed volunteers. The vaccine was administered by intramuscular injections on days zero, 2, 4, 16 and 27, in the deltoid area. Antibody levels were determinated by a simplified serum neutralization microtest on days zero, 16 and 37. On days 16 and 37 the antibody levels of the whole group was >0.5 IU/ml and >1.0 IU/ml, respectively. The cell mediated immunity was precociously detected (on day 4) by the delayed type hipersensitivity skin test. Our results show that this reduced schedule elicited an early and effective humoral and cellular immune response. However it is necessary other studies with larger groups of vaccinees in order to obtain definitive conclusion.

Detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples of an immunosuppressed child during a three years follow-up: association of clinical and PCR data with active infection

Twenty-four whole blood and serum samples were drawn from an eight year-old heart transplant child during a 36 months follow-up. EBV serology was positive for VCA-IgM and IgG, and negative for EBNA-IgG at the age of five years old when the child presented with signs and symptoms suggestive of acute infectious mononucleosis. After 14 months, serological parameters were: positive VCA-IgG, EBNA-IgG and negative VCA-IgM. This serological pattern has been maintained since then even during episodes suggestive of EBV reactivation. PCR amplified a specific DNA fragment from the EBV gp220 (detection limit of 100 viral copies). All twenty-four whole blood samples yielded positive results by PCR, while 12 out of 24 serum samples were positive. We aimed at analyzing whether detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples by PCR was associated with overt disease as stated by the need of antiviral treatment and hospitalization. Statistical analysis showed agreement between the two parameters evidenced by the Kappa test (value 0.750; p < 0.001). We concluded that detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples of immunosuppressed patients might be used as a laboratory marker of active EBV disease when a Real-Time PCR or another quantitative method is not available.