Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) na análise da dinâmica da vegetação da reserva biológica de Sooretama, ES

Técnicas de análises de séries temporais são utilizadas para caracterizar o comportamento de fenômenos naturais no domínio do tempo. Neste artigo, segundo a metodologia proposta por Box et al. (1994), 125 observações do Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) foram analisadas. Os valores modelados correspondem às variações temporais ocorridas no dossel florestal da reserva biológica de Sooretama, localizada ao Norte do Estado do Espírito Santo, no Município de Linhares. Os resultados indicaram que a metodologia foi adequada. Os resíduos do modelo ajustado são não correlacionados com distribuição normal, média zero e variância s². Com o menor valor do Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC) -570,51, o modelo ajustado foi o Sazonal Auto-Regressivo Integrado de Médias Móveis (1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Armazenagem de pequenos insetos secos em bandeja-manta adaptada de "cd box"

The display tray holds the specimens over a thin cotton layer glued to a thick paper attached to the cd holder tray. Althought only a temporary storing method, it is a good alternative when compared to other layer models. It has the advantages of low cost, protection of specimens, minimal or no damage, as well as good visibility through its cover.

Molecular characterization of DDX26, a human DEAD-box RNA helicase, located on chromosome 7p12

DEAD-box proteins comprise a family of ATP-dependent RNA helicases involved in several aspects of RNA metabolism. Here we report the characterization of the human DEAD-box RNA helicase DDX26. The gene is composed of 14 exons distributed over an extension of 8,123 bp of genomic sequence and encodes a transcript of 1.8 kb that is expressed in all tissues evaluated. The predicted amino acid sequence shows a high similarity to a yeast DEAD-box RNA helicase (Dbp9b) involved in ribosome biogenesis. The new helicase maps to 7p12, a region of frequent chromosome amplifications in glioblastomas involving the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene. Nevertheless, co-amplification of DDX26 with EGFR was not detected in nine tumors analyzed.

High mobility group box 1 as a mediator of endotoxin administration after hemorrhagic shock-primed lung injury

High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) was discovered as a novel late-acting cytokine that contributes to acute lung injury (ALI). However, the contribution of HMGB1 to two-hit-induced ALI has not been investigated. To examine the participation of HMGB1 in the pathogenesis of ALI caused by the two-hit hypothesis, endotoxin was injected intratracheally in a hemorrhagic shock-primed ALI mouse model. Concentrations of HMGB1 in the lung of the shock group were markedly increased at 16 h (1.63 ± 0.05, compared to the control group: 1.02 ± 0.03; P < 0.05), with the highest concentration being observed at 24 h. In the sham/lipopolysaccharide group, lung HMGB1 concentrations were found to be markedly increased at 24 h (1.98 ± 0.08, compared to the control group: 1.07 ± 0.03; P < 0.05). Administration of lipopolysaccharide to the hemorrhagic shock group resulted in a notable HMGB1 increase by 4 h, with a further increase by 16 h. Intratracheal lipopolysaccharide injection after hemorrhagic shock resulted in the highest lung leak at 16 h (2.68 ± 0.08, compared to the control group: 1.05 ± 0.04; P < 0.05). Compared to the hemorrhagic shock/lipopolysaccharide mice, blockade of HMGB1 at the same time as lipopolysaccharide injection prevented significantly pulmonary tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-1beta and myeloperoxidase. Lung leak was also markedly reduced at 16 h; blockade of HMGB1 24 h after lipopolysaccharide injection failed to alter lung leak or myeloperoxidase at 48 h. Our observations suggest that HMGB1 plays a key role as a late mediator when lipopolysaccharide is injected after hemorrhagic shock-primed ALI and the kinetics of its release differs from that of one-hit ALI. The therapeutic window to suppress HMGB1 activity should not be delayed to 24 h after the disease onset.

Role of high mobility group box-1 and protection of growth hormone and somatostatin in severe acute pancreatitis

In this study, we investigated the potential role of high-mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and the effects of growth hormone (G) and somatostatin (S) in SAP rats. The rats were randomly divided into 6 groups of 20 each: sham-operated, SAP, SAP+saline, SAP+G, SAP+S and SAP+G+S. Ileum and pancreas tissues of rats in each group were evaluated histologically. HMGB1 mRNA expression was measured by reverse transcription-PCR. Levels of circulating TNF-α, IL-1, IL-6, and endotoxin were also measured. In the SAP group, interstitial congestion and edema, inflammatory cell infiltration, and interstitial hemorrhage occurred in ileum and pancreas tissues. The levels of HMGB1, TNF-α, IL-1, IL-6 and endotoxin were significantly up-regulated in the SAP group compared with those in the sham-operated group, and the 7-day survival rate was 0%. In the SAP+G and SAP+S groups, the inflammatory response of the morphological structures was alleviated, the levels of HMGB1, TNF-α, IL-1, IL-6, and endotoxin were significantly decreased compared with those in the SAP group, and the survival rate was increased. Moreover, in the SAP+G+S group, all histological scores were significantly improved and the survival rate was significantly higher compared with the SAP group. In conclusion, HMGB1 might participate in pancreas and ileum injury in SAP. Growth hormone and somatostatin might play a therapeutic role in the inflammatory response of SAP.

Coalizões em educação no Brasil: relação com o governo e influência sobre o Plano de Desenvolvimento da Educação (PDE)

Atualmente, duas coalizões lutam pela melhoria da qualidade da educação no Brasil: a Campanha Nacional pelo Direito à Educação e o Todos pela Educação. Essas duas coalizões diferenciam-se dos movimentos históricos por sua capacidade de agregar atores provenientes de instituições governamentais e não governamentais, de diversos níveis, que possuem valores e crenças comuns em uma aliança única, aproximando-se do conceito de coalizões advocatórias proposto por Sabatier e Jenkins-Smith (1993). Apesar da bandeira comum, elas possuem origens, composições, metas e formas de atuação completamente diferentes - a relação com o governo é um dos pontos que mais as diferencia. O lançamento do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Educação (PDE), com uma das medidas intitulada "Plano de Metas Compromisso Todos pela Educação", gerou questionamentos com relação à similaridade dos nomes entre um plano de governo e uma das coalizões. Neste artigo, apresentaremos as duas coalizões e a relação de ambas com o governo, utilizando o PDE como estudo de caso.

A Política Científica e Tecnológica de Santa Catarina: análise a partir do modelo de coalizões de defesa

Este artigo utiliza o modelo de coalizões de defesa (Advocacy Coalition Framework - ACF), de Sabatier e Jenkins-Smith (1993), para analisar a prevalência da comunidade científica catarinense como ator-chave na formulação da Política Científica e Tecnológica (PCT) de Santa Catarina. A coleta de dados foi realizada a partir de relatórios e documentos oficiais das instituições, bem como de entrevistas realizadas com 10 atores do processo de formulação da PCT que ocuparam funções estratégicas no período de 1989 a 2009, assim classificados: 1) comunidade científica; 2) burocratas; 3) designados politicamente; 4) empresários; 5) políticos. A análise dos dados teve como conceitos sensíveis aqueles presentes no modelo de coalizões de defesa: a) o papel dos atores; b) sistemas de convicções e recursos; c) trajetórias da política pública; d) características da política pública; e) conteúdo da política pública. Foram identificadas as conexões entre os atores, suas convicções, estratégias, recursos e constrangimentos. A pesquisa conclui que a comunidade científica exerce um papel de destaque na formulação da política científica e tecnológica catarinense, sendo prevalente na formulação da PCT em todo o período analisado. Em relação aos empresários, políticos e burocratas, não se identificou uma atuação destacada e contínua desses atores. Entretanto, os designados politicamente, que na maioria das vezes são recrutados no seio da comunidade científica, exerceram papel importante na formulação e na reafirmação do sistema de convicções da comunidade científica. Em relação às principais trajetórias que ajudam a explicar as mudanças da PCT catarinense no período analisado, a trajetória "aprendizagem orientada pela política pública" destaca-se perante as demais.

Tentativa de controle de Hymenolepis nana através de tratamentos clínicos repetidos, com praziquantel, em uma comunidade fechada

Foi feita tentativa de controle do Hymenolepis nana em uma comunidade fechada utilizando-se o praziquantel em repetidos tratamentos. Concomitantemente, foram estudados os prováveis mecanismos de transmissão da parasitose. A comunidade trabalhada possuia inicialmente 161 pessoas, sendo 109 crianças internas, com idade variando de dias e/ou meses a 8 anos, e de 52 adultos, funcionários da instituição. O diagnóstico parasitológico foi realizado aproximadamente de 2 em 2 meses em toda a população, pelo método de Hoffman, Pons e Janer, e o controle de cura, pelo mesmo método, entre o 7.º e o 14.º dia. Quinzenalmente foram realizadas pesquisas para ovos de H. nana no leito ungueal das crianças, em insetos, no lixo doméstico, nas maçanetas das portas e geladeiras, nos botões e cordões de descarga. Posteriormente examinou-se água recolhida dos urinóis e do chão do "box" do chuveiro. Todos os pacientes eliminando ovos de H. nana nas fezes foram tratados com praziquantel, após exame clínico, na dose única oral de 25mg/kg, após o almoço. Em 4 tratamentos realizados (66 pacientes), não foram observadas reações colterais importantes, e o controle de cura foi sempre de 100%. No 5.º e último tratamento, grupos de pacientes positivos e negativos para H. nana foram divididos em subgrupos e tratados com uma dose da droga (25mg/kg) ou duas doses espaçadas de 4 dias (total: 50mg/kg). No levantamento realizado dois meses após o tratamento, foram encontrados apenas 6 indivíduos eliminando ovos do parasita. Estes pertenciam ao subgrupo de crianças com himenolepíase tratado com uma única dose da droga. Ovos e larvas de helmintos e cistos de protozoários foram encontrados no lixo doméstico, insetos (baratas) e maçanetas de portas, enquanto ovos de H. nana só foram achados em água aspirada do "box" do chuveiro e da lavagem dos urinóis. Apesar da elevada percentagem de cura e dos vários tratamentos realizados, não se conseguiu o controle da himenolepíase.

Domestic vectors of Chagas' disease in three rural communities of Nicaragua

A triatomine survey was conducted in three rural settlements of Nicaragua (Santa Rosa, Quebrada Honda and Poneloya) where Chagas' disease is endemic, to determine rates of house infestation, evaluate the housing condition and to asess the performance of the María sensor box in detection of domestic vectors. A total of 184 households were selected and vectors were sought by the methods of timed manual capture and by sensor boxes. The sole vectors species found in this study was Triatoma dimidiata. Of the examined bugs 50, 60 and 33%, in the respective communities, were infected with T. cruzi. The rates of house infestation as determined by manual capture and sensor boxes were respectively, 48.3% and 54.2% in Santa Rosa, 29.8% and 51.2% in Quebrada Honda and in Poneloya 3.8 and 5.9% with significant difference between the methods in Quebrada Honda. When compared with the manual capture, the Maria sensor box detected vectors in 71.4% of positive houses in two of the communities but also was able to detect bugs in 39.3% and 41.1% of houses where manual capture had been negative. Housing condition was evaluated according to three structural parameters, in this way, in the first community 79.2% of houses were classified as bad, 20.8% as regular; in the second one 42.5% were bad and 57.5% regular, whereas in the third 62.5% of the houses were regular. Rates of infestation did not differ greatly between the different housing conditions. Our results show that the sensor box is as efficient as manual capture and could be implemented in our country.

Domestic Rhodnius ecuadoriensis (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) infestation in Northern Peru: a comparative trial of detection methods during a six-month follow-up

Two passive methods in the assessment of intradomiciliary infestation by Rhodnius ecuadoriensis were tested: (i) the Gomes Nuñez sensor box (GN), (ii) sheets of white typing paper and (iii) one active timed manual method. The study was carried out in the Alto Chicama River Valley, Province of Gran Chimú, Department of La Libertad. The study design consisted of an initial searching of triatomines inside of the domestic environment by the manual capture active procedure (man/hour) covering all the studied houses. Then, matched pairs of GN boxes and paper sheets were simultaneously installed in the bedrooms of 207 households distributed in 19 localities. A comparative prospective trial of these passive detection devices were monitored at 2, 4 and, finally 6 months follow-up. Parasitological Trypanosoma rangeli and/or T. cruzi infections were investigated in two houses with high level of infestation by R. ecuadoriensis. 16.9% of the 207 households investigated by an initial active manual method were infested with R. ecuadoriensis. The proportion of infested houses fluctuated from 6.2 to 55.5% amongst the 19 localities investigated. T. rangeli natural infection was detected in R. ecuadoriensis specimens collected in two households. Parasite rates in the bugs ranged from 16.6 to 21.7% respectively. The most striking fact was an average rate of salivary gland infection ranging from 7.4 to 8.3%. At the end of the sixth month period, a cumulative incidence of 31.4% of positive GN boxes against 15.9% for paper sheets was recorded. All three methods combined detected domestic infestation in 129 (62.3%) of the 207 houses studied in the 19 localities. The range of houses infested varies from 6.7% to 92.9%. In areas with low bug density infestation rates, the methodology experienced in our studies, seems to be the best choice for investigations on domestic R. ecuadoriensis populations.

Skin lesions in envenoming by cnidarians (Portuguese man-of-war and jellyfish): etiology and severity of accidents on the Brazilian coast

This work attempts to establish dermatological identification patterns for Brazilian cnidarian species and a probable correlation with envenoming severity. In an observational prospective study, one hundred and twenty-eight patients from the North Coast region of São Paulo State, Brazil were seen between 2002 and 2008. About 80% of these showed only local effects (erythema, edema, and pain) with small, less than 20 cm, oval or round skin marks and impressions from small tentacles. Approximately 20% of the victims had long, more than 20 cm, linear and crossed marks with frequent systemic phenomena, such as malaise, vomiting, dyspnea, and tachycardia. The former is compatible with the common hydromedusa from Southeast and Southern Brazil (Olindias sambaquiensis). The long linear marks with intense pain and systemic phenomena are compatible with envenoming by the box jellyfish Tamoya haplonema and Chiropsalmus quadrumanus and the hydrozoan Portuguese man-of-war (Physalis physalis). There was an association between skin marks and probable accident etiology. This simple observation rule can be indicative of severity, as the Cubozoa Class (box jellyfish) and Portuguese man-of-war cause the most severe accidents. In such cases, medical attention, including intensive care, is important, as the systemic manifestations can be associated with death.

Sensitivity of Gomez-Nuñez boxes for the detection of household infestation with Panstrongylus megistus

Four methods for detecting household infestations with Panstrongylus megistus were compared: 1) manual collection; 2) collection after pyrethrum application; 3) search viable eggs; and 4) Gomez-Nuñez boxes. Manual collection was the most sensitive method (23% infested), followed by pyrethrum (21%), Gomez-Nuñez boxes (15%) and viable eggs (12%). About 10% of infested houses were positive exclusively on the Gomez-Nuñez box test. More over, 6 out of the 7 houses positive exclusively on the Gomez-Nuñez method were located in a recently sprayed area, where P. megistus density was low. Inspection of Gomez-Nuñez boxes at 12 weekspost-application was twice as effective as inspection at 6 weekspost-application. Triatomine feces was the most common evidencefor thepresence of P. megistus found within Gomez-Nuñez boxes. Gomez-Nuñez boxes area a useful adjunct to manual collection in detecting domestic infestations with P. megistus, especially in areas where bug densities are low. However, the utility of Gomez-Nuhez boxes must be weighed against the time and labor they require.