11 resultados para Bayesian shared component model

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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This study aimed to evaluate the interference of tuberculin test on the gamma-interferon (INFg) assay, to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay in Brazilian conditions, and to simulate multiple testing using the comparative tuberculin test and the INFg assay. Three hundred-fifty cattle from two TB-free and two TB-infected herds were submitted to the comparative tuberculin test and the INFg assay. The comparative tuberculin test was performed using avian and bovine PPD. The INFg assay was performed by the BovigamTM kit (CSL Veterinary, Australia), according to the manufacturer's specifications. Sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay were assessed by a Bayesian latent class model. These diagnostic parameters were also estimate for multiple testing. The results of INFg assay on D0 and D3 after the comparative tuberculin test were compared by the McNemar's test and kappa statistics. Results of mean optical density from INFg assay on both days were similar. Sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay showed results varying (95% confidence intervals) from 72 to 100% and 74 to 100% respectively. Sensitivity of parallel testing was over 97.5%, while specificity of serial testing was over 99.7%. The INFg assay proved to be a very useful diagnostic method.

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INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

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The increasing number of pertussis cases reported on the last twenty years and the existence of new acellular vaccines reinforce the need of research for experimental models to assure the quality of available pertussis vaccines. In this study, allotments of whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines were tested through the Intranasal Challenge Model (INM) using conventional NIH mice. The results have been compared to those achieved by the "Gold standard" Intracerebral Challenge Model (ICM). In contrast to ICM, INM results did not show intralaboratorial variations. Statistical analysis by Anova and Ancova tests revealed that the INM presented reproducibility and allowed identification and separation of different products, including three-component and four-component accellular pertussis vaccines. INM revealed differences between pertussis vaccines. INM provides lower distress to the mice allowing the reduction of mice number including the possibility of using conventional mice (less expensive) under non-aseptic environment. Thus, INM may be used as an alternative method of verifying the consistence of allotment production, including acellular pertussis vaccines.

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The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09-0.27), 0.21 (0.12-0.32) and 0.32 (0.22-0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable.

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The objective of this study was to assess genotype by environment interaction for seed yield per plant in rapeseed cultivars grown in Northern Serbia by the AMMI (additive main effects and multiplicative interaction) model. The study comprised 19 rapeseed genotypes, analyzed in seven years through field trials arranged in a randomized complete block design, with three replicates. Seed yield per plant of the tested cultivars varied from 1.82 to 19.47 g throughout the seven seasons, with an average of 7.41 g. In the variance analysis, 72.49% of the total yield variation was explained by environment, 7.71% by differences between genotypes, and 19.09% by genotype by environment interaction. On the biplot, cultivars with high yield genetic potential had positive correlation with the seasons with optimal growing conditions, while the cultivars with lower yield potential were correlated to the years with unfavorable conditions. Seed yield per plant is highly influenced by environmental factors, which indicates the adaptability of specific genotypes to specific seasons.

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To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.

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Cancer anemia is classified as an anemia of chronic diseases, although it is sometimes the first symptom of cancer. Cancer anemia includes a hemolytic component, important in the terminal stage when even transfused cells are rapidly destroyed. The presence of a chronic component and the terminal complications of the illness limit studies of the hemolytic component. A multifocal model of tumor growth was used here to simulate the terminal metastatic dissemination stage (several simultaneous inoculations of Walker 256 cells). The hemolytic component of anemia began 3-4 days after inoculation in 100% of the rats and progressed rapidly thereafter: Hb levels dropped from 14.9 ± 0.02 to 8.7 ± 0.06 from days 7 to 11 (~5 times the physiologically normal rate in rats) in the absence of bleeding. The development of anemia was correlated (r2 = 0.86) with the development of other systemic effects such as anorexia. There was a significant decrease in the osmotic fragility of circulating erythrocytes: the NaCl concentration causing 50% lysis was reduced from 4.52 ± 0.06 to 4.10 ± 0.01 (P<0.01) on day 7, indicating a reduction in erythrocyte volume. However, with mild metabolic stress (4-h incubation at 37oC), the erythrocytes showed a greater increase in osmotic fragility than the controls, suggesting marked alteration of erythrocyte homeostasis. These effects may be due to primary plasma membrane alterations (transport and/or permeability) and/or may be secondary to metabolic changes. This multifocal model is adequate for studying the hemolytic component of cancer anemia since it is rapid, highly reproducible and causes minimal animal suffering.

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Didanosine (ddI) is a component of highly active antiretroviral therapy drug combinations, used especially in resource-limited settings and in zidovudine-resistant patients. The population pharmacokinetics of ddI was evaluated in 48 healthy volunteers enrolled in two bioequivalence studies. These data, along with a set of co-variates, were the subject of a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling analysis using the NONMEM program. A two-compartment model with first order absorption (ADVAN3 TRANS3) was fitted to the serum ddI concentration data. Final pharmacokinetic parameters, expressed as functions of the co-variates gender and creatinine clearance (CL CR), were: oral clearance (CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR + 16.6 L/h for males and CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR for females), central volume (V2 = 9.8 L), intercompartmental clearance (Q = 40.9 L/h), peripheral volume (V3 = 62.7 + 22.9 L for males and V3 = 62.7 L for females), absorption rate constant (Ka = 1.51/h), and dissolution time of the tablet (D = 0.43 h). The intraindividual (residual) variability expressed as coefficient of variation was 13.0%, whereas the interindividual variability of CL, Q, V3, Ka, and D was 20.1, 75.8, 20.6, 18.9, and 38.2%, respectively. The relatively high (>30%) interindividual variability for some of these parameters, observed under the controlled experimental settings of bioequivalence trials in healthy volunteers, may result from genetic variability of the processes involved in ddI absorption and disposition.

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The objective of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of the shared epitope (SE), the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) protection model, and the occurrence of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies in RA patients from a genetically diverse population. One hundred and forty Brazilian RA patients and 161 matched controls were typed for HLA-DRB1 alleles using amplified DNA hybridized with sequence-specific oligonucleotide probes or primers. Patients were stratified according to the presence or absence of SE (DRB1*0401, *0404, *0405, *0101, *1001, and *1402), of the DERAA alleles (DRB1*0103, *0402, *1102, *1103, *1301, *1302, and *1304), and X (all other alleles). Anti-CCP antibodies were measured by ELISA. The combined frequency of SE-positive alleles was significantly greater (76.4 vs 23.6%, P < 0.0001) than the controls. The SE/SE and SE/X genotypes were over-represented (P < 0.0001, OR = 6.02) and DERAA/X was under-represented in RA patients (P < 0.001, OR = 0.49), whereas the frequencies of the SE/DERAA, X/X and X/DERAA genotypes were not significantly different from controls. The frequency of anti-CCP antibodies was higher in SE-positive patients than in SE-negative patients (64.6 vs 44.7%, P = 0.03; OR = 2.25). Although the Brazilian population is highly miscegenated, the results of this study support the findings observed in most genetically homogeneous populations with RA; however, they are not mutually exclusive but rather complementary. The participation of DRB1-DERAA alleles in protection against RA was also observed (OR = 0.4; 95%CI = 0.23-0.68).

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Simultaneous measurements of EEG-functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) combine the high temporal resolution of EEG with the distinctive spatial resolution of fMRI. The purpose of this EEG-fMRI study was to search for hemodynamic responses (blood oxygen level-dependent - BOLD responses) associated with interictal activity in a case of right mesial temporal lobe epilepsy before and after a successful selective amygdalohippocampectomy. Therefore, the study found the epileptogenic source by this noninvasive imaging technique and compared the results after removing the atrophied hippocampus. Additionally, the present study investigated the effectiveness of two different ways of localizing epileptiform spike sources, i.e., BOLD contrast and independent component analysis dipole model, by comparing their respective outcomes to the resected epileptogenic region. Our findings suggested a right hippocampus induction of the large interictal activity in the left hemisphere. Although almost a quarter of the dipoles were found near the right hippocampus region, dipole modeling resulted in a widespread distribution, making EEG analysis too weak to precisely determine by itself the source localization even by a sophisticated method of analysis such as independent component analysis. On the other hand, the combined EEG-fMRI technique made it possible to highlight the epileptogenic foci quite efficiently.

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(+)-Dehydrofukinone (DHF) is a major component of the essential oil of Nectandra grandiflora (Lauraceae), and exerts a depressant effect on the central nervous system of fish. However, the neuronal mechanism underlying DHF action remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the action of DHF on GABAA receptors using a silver catfish (Rhamdia quelen) model. Additionally, we investigated the effect of DHF exposure on stress-induced cortisol modulation. Chemical identification was performed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and purity was evaluated using gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector. To an aquarium, we applied between 2.5 and 50 mg/L DHF diluted in ethanol, in combination with 42.7 mg/L diazepam. DHF within the range of 10-20 mg/L acted collaboratively in combination with diazepam, but the sedative action of DHF was reversed by 3 mg/L flumazenil. Additionally, fish exposed for 24 h to 2.5-20 mg/L DHF showed no side effects and there was sustained sedation during the first 12 h of drug exposure with 10-20 mg/L DHF. DHF pretreatment did not increase plasma cortisol levels in fish subjected to a stress protocol. Moreover, the stress-induced cortisol peak was absent following pretreatment with 20 mg/L DHF. DHF proved to be a relatively safe sedative or anesthetic, which interacts with GABAergic and cortisol pathways in fish.