Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

We estimated the geographic distributions of triatomine species in Central-West Region of Brazil (CW) and analysed the climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 3,396 records of 27 triatomine species were analysed. Using the maximum entropy method, ecological niche models were produced for eight species occurring in at least 20 municipalities based on 13 climatic variables and elevation. Triatoma sordida and Rhodnius neglectus were the species with the broadest geographic distributions in CW Brazil. The Cerrado areas in the state of Goiás were found to be more suitable for the occurrence of synanthropic triatomines than the Amazon forest areas in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso. The variable that best explains the evaluated models is temperature seasonality. The results indicate that almost the entire region presents climatic conditions that are appropriate for at least one triatomine species. Therefore, it is recommended that entomological surveillance be reinforced in CW Brazil.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Neutron tomography using projection data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation for nondestructive evaluation

This work present the application of a computer package for generating of projection data for neutron computerized tomography, and in second part, discusses an application of neutron tomography, using the projection data obtained by Monte Carlo technique, for the detection and localization of light materials such as those containing hydrogen, concealed by heavy materials such as iron and lead. For tomographic reconstructions of the samples simulated use was made of only six equal projection angles distributed between 0º and 180º, with reconstruction making use of an algorithm (ARIEM), based on the principle of maximum entropy. With the neutron tomography it was possible to detect and locate polyethylene and water hidden by lead and iron (with 1cm-thick). Thus, it is demonstrated that thermal neutrons tomography is a viable test method which can provide important interior information about test components, so, extremely useful in routine industrial applications.

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

Manejo do pastejo de cultivares de Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst) Stapf e de Panicum maximum Jacq

A definição dos princípios adequados de manejo do pastejo capazes de possibilitar que as pastagens mantenham-se produtivas e persistentes tem sido uma preocupação constante dos pesquisadores brasileiros. No entanto, foi durante as duas últimas décadas que ocorreram grandes mudanças e um avanço significativo na compreensão dos processos determinantes da correta utilização das plantas forrageiras tropicais em pastagens. Este texto tem por objetivo apresentar e discutir os principais resultados obtidos sobre o manejo do pastejo de alguns cultivares de Panicum maximum e de Brachiaria brizantha, bem como a importância da utilização de metas de pasto como guia de campo para o monitoramento e controle do processo de pastejo para planejar e recomendar práticas de manejo eficientes.

Selection of full-sib families of Panicum maximum Jacq under low light conditions

The silvopastoral system is a viable technological alternative to extensive cattle grazing, however, for it to be successful, forage grass genotypes adapted to reduced light need to be identified. The objective of this study was to select progenies of Panicum maximum tolerant to low light conditions for use in breeding programs and to study the genetic control and performance of some traits associated with shade tolerance. Six full-sib progenies were evaluated in full sun, 50% and 70% of light reduction in pots and subjected to cuttings. Progeny genotypic values ​​(GV) increased with light reduction in relation to plant height (H) and specific leaf area (SLA). The traits total dry mass accumulation (DM) and leaf dry mass accumulation (LDM) had GV higher in 50% shade and intermediate in 70% shade. The GV of tiller number (TIL) and root dry mass accumulation (RDM) decreased with light reduction. The highest positive correlations were obtained for the traits H and RDM with SLA and DM; the highest negative correlations were between TIL and SLA and RDM, and H and LDM. The progenies showed higher tolerance to 50% light reduction and, among them, two stood out and will be used in breeding programs. It was also found that it is not necessary to evaluate some traits under all light conditions. All traits had high broad sense heritability and high genotypic correlation between progenies in all light intensities. There is genetic difference among the progenies regarding the response to different light intensities, which will allow selection for shade tolerance

IgG recognizing 21-24 kDa and 30-33 kDa tachyzoite antigens show maximum avidity maturation during natural and accidental human toxoplasmosis

We describe the avidity maturation of IgGs in human toxoplasmosis using sequential serum samples from accidental and natural infections. In accidental cases, avidity increased continuously throughout infection while naturally infected patients showed a different profile. Twenty-five percent of sera from chronic patients having specific IgM positive results could be appropriately classified using exclusively the avidity test data. To take advantage of the potentiality of this technique, antigens recognized by IgG showing steeper avidity maturation were identified using immunoblot with KSCN elution. Two clusters of antigens, in the ranges of 21-24 kDa and 30-33 kDa, were identified as the ones that fulfill the aforementioned avidity characteristics.

Molecular analysis of the dengue virus type 1 and 2 in Brazil based on sequences of the genomic envelope-nonstructural protein 1 junction region

The genomic sequences of the Envelope-Non-Structural protein 1 junction region (E/NS1) of 84 DEN-1 and 22 DEN-2 isolates from Brazil were determined. Most of these strains were isolated in the period from 1995 to 2001 in endemic and regions of recent dengue transmission in São Paulo State. Sequence data for DEN-1 and DEN-2 utilized in phylogenetic and split decomposition analyses also include sequences deposited in GenBank from different regions of Brazil and of the world. Phylogenetic analyses were done using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Results for both DEN-1 and DEN-2 data are ambiguous, and support for most tree bipartitions are generally poor, suggesting that E/NS1 region does not contain enough information for recovering phylogenetic relationships among DEN-1 and DEN-2 sequences used in this study. The network graph generated in the split decomposition analysis of DEN-1 does not show evidence of grouping sequences according to country, region and clades. While the network for DEN-2 also shows ambiguities among DEN-2 sequences, it suggests that Brazilian sequences may belong to distinct subtypes of genotype III.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Response of blood pressure to maximum exercise in hypertensive patients under different therapeutic programs

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the behavior of blood pressure during exercise in patients with hypertension controlled by frontline antihypertension drugs. METHODS: From 979ergometric tests we retrospectively selected 49 hipertensive patients (19 males). The age was 53±12 years old and normal range rest arterial pressure (<=140/90 mmHg) all on pharmacological monotherapy. There were 12 on beta blockers; 14 on calcium antagonists, 13 on diuretics and 10 on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. Abnormal exercise behhavior of blood pressure was diagnosed if anyone of the following criteria was detected: peak systolic pressure above 220 mmHg, raising of systolic pressure > or = 10 mmHg/MET; or increase of diastolic pressure greater than 15 mmHg. RESULTS: Physiologic response of arterial blood pressure occurred in 50% of patients on beta blockers, the best one (p<0.05), in 36% and 31% on calcium antagonists and on diuretics, respectively, and in 20% on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, the later the leastr one (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Beta-blockers were more effective than calcium antagonists, diuretics and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in controlling blood pressure during exercise, and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors the least effective drugs.

Sex-Specific Equations to Estimate Maximum Oxygen Uptake in Cycle Ergometry

AbstractBackground:Aerobic fitness, assessed by measuring VO2max in maximum cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) or by estimating VO2max through the use of equations in exercise testing, is a predictor of mortality. However, the error resulting from this estimate in a given individual can be high, affecting clinical decisions.Objective:To determine the error of estimate of VO2max in cycle ergometry in a population attending clinical exercise testing laboratories, and to propose sex-specific equations to minimize that error.Methods:This study assessed 1715 adults (18 to 91 years, 68% men) undertaking maximum CPX in a lower limbs cycle ergometer (LLCE) with ramp protocol. The percentage error (E%) between measured VO2max and that estimated from the modified ACSM equation (Lang et al. MSSE, 1992) was calculated. Then, estimation equations were developed: 1) for all the population tested (C-GENERAL); and 2) separately by sex (C-MEN and C-WOMEN).Results:Measured VO2max was higher in men than in WOMEN: -29.4 ± 10.5 and 24.2 ± 9.2 mL.(kg.min)-1 (p < 0.01). The equations for estimating VO2max [in mL.(kg.min)-1] were: C-GENERAL = [final workload (W)/body weight (kg)] x 10.483 + 7; C-MEN = [final workload (W)/body weight (kg)] x 10.791 + 7; and C-WOMEN = [final workload (W)/body weight (kg)] x 9.820 + 7. The E% for MEN was: -3.4 ± 13.4% (modified ACSM); 1.2 ± 13.2% (C-GENERAL); and -0.9 ± 13.4% (C-MEN) (p < 0.01). For WOMEN: -14.7 ± 17.4% (modified ACSM); -6.3 ± 16.5% (C-GENERAL); and -1.7 ± 16.2% (C-WOMEN) (p < 0.01).Conclusion:The error of estimate of VO2max by use of sex-specific equations was reduced, but not eliminated, in exercise tests on LLCE.

Produção, coeficiente de digestibilidade da matéria seca e concentração de nutrientes em Panicum maximum Jacq., em função dos cortes aos 30, 45, 60 e 75 dias de idade

Mudas de capim colonião (Panicum maximum Jacq.) foram transplantadas para uma Terra Roxa Estruturada, serie "Luiz de Queiroz", em Piracicaba, SP, e adubadas na razão de 2,5 g de N (sulfato de amônio), 3,2 g de P2O5 (superfosfato simples) e 1,9 g de K2O (cloreto de potássio) por muda. Cortes foram efetuados aos 35, 45, 60 e 75 dias a 15 cm de altura do solo. No material coletado foram separadas hastes e folhas e determinado o peso da matéria seca, o coeficiente de digestibilidade in vitro e as concentrações de N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Cu, Fe, Mn e Zn. O delineamento estatístico foi de blocos ao aca so, com três repetições. Concluíram os autores: 1. a relação haste/folha varia com o envelhecimento da planta. A produção de matéria seca e maior nas hastes do que nas folhas. Há uma relação linear positiva entre o aumento de peso da matéria seca e a idade da planta; 2. o coeficiente de digestibilidade da matéria seca diminui com a idade da planta, não havendo diferenças entre haste e folha; 3. a concentração de N, P, Cu, Fe e Zn diminui com o aumento da idade da planta; 4. a idade da planta não afeta os teores mínimos exigidos pelo animal.

Níveis críticos de fósforo em Brachiaria decunbens (Stapf) Prain, Brachiaria humidicola (Rendle) Schweickerdt, Digitaria decumbens Stent, Hypharrhenia rufa (Ness) Stapf, Melinis minutiflora Pal de Beauv, Panicum maximum Jacq. e Pennisetum purpureum Schum

Plantas dos capins braquiaria brachiaria decumbens Stapf (Prain) , quicuio da Amazonia, (Brachiaria humidicola (Rendle) Schweickerdt), pangola (Digitaria decumbens Stent), jaraguá (Hyphrrhenia rufa (Ness) Stapf), gordura (Melinis minutiflora Pal de Beauv), colonião (Panicum maximum Jacq) e napier (Pennisetwn purpure um Schum) foram cultivadas em solução nutritiva completa contendo, 0,12; 0,48; 1,94; 7,75 e 31,00 mg de fósforo por litro, com o objetivo de determinar os níveis críticos internos e externos de fosforo, e avaliar a eficiência com que absorvem e utilizam o fósforo. Aos setenta e cinco dias as plantas foram coletadas, separadas em caules, folhas, bainhas e raízes. Após secagem a 80ºC, as amostras foram pesadas e analisadas para fósforo na matéria seca. Curvas representativas do peso da matéria seca e da concentração de fósforo na matéria seca em função dos níveis de fosforo da solução nutritiva foram obtidas a partir de dados calculados de equações de regressão. Verificou-se que: - As espécies diferiram quanto à necessidade externa de fósforo, sendo B. humidicola e H. rufa as menos exigentes. Seguiram-se em ordem crescente B. decumbens, M. minutiflora, P. maximum, P. purpureum e D. decumbens. - Os níveis críticos internos de fósforo variaram entre as espécies, sendo maior em D. decumbens (0,38%) que nas demais. Seguiram-se em ordem decrescente B. decumbens (0,32%), B. humidioola (0,26%), M. minutiflora (0,24%), P. maximum (o,24%) e P. purpureum (0,20%). - A eficiência de absorção e utilização, do fósforo foi maior para B. humidicola. Seguiram-se em ordem decrescente P. purpureum, P. maximum, D. decumbens , B. decumbens e M. minutiflora.