Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

On the isotopic composition of precipitation in tropical stations (*).

Some of the trends and characteristics of the isotopic composition oh precipitation in tropical stations are discussed. Stations in small Pacific islands show a variation with latitude, with lower 8-values between 15°N and 1S°S and higher values at higher. Inland stations are depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to coastal stations but sometimes this continental effect is rather complex, as f,or instance in África. Mean monthly 8-values show a remarkable correlation with the amount of precipitation, but the slope variations do not show a clear dependence on the mean long term 8-value,as should be expected theoretically. In Southern American stations the seasonal variations of the meanmonthly 5-values are correlated and they are greater in inland stations due to con-tinentaly. The possible effects of recycling of water vapour by evapotranspiration are also discussed.

pH effect on the synthesis of magnetite nanoparticles by the chemical reduction-precipitation method

This work aimed at putting in evidence the influence of the pH on the chemical nature and properties of the synthesized magnetic nanocomposites. Saturation magnetization measurements evidenced a marked difference of the magnetic behavior of samples, depending on the final pH of the solution after reaction. Magnetite and maghemite in different proportions were the main magnetic iron oxides actually identified. Synthesis with final pH between 9.7-10.6 produced nearly pure magnetite with little or no other associated iron oxide. Under other synthetic conditions, goethite also appears in proportions that depended upon the pH of the synthesis medium.

Parasitological and serological studies on Amoebiasis and other intestinal parasitic infections in Recife and its suburban area, northeast Brazil

Parasitological examinations were carried out during April to August, 1987, with 187 out-patients of the IMIP hospital, located in the center of Recife City, and 464 inhabitants of several villages around Cabo City, 50 Km southeast of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. Approximately 71% of the IMIP patients and 92% of the Cabo inhabitants were infected with at least one species of intestinal parasite. There was minimum difference in the prevalence rate of Trichuris trichiura between two areas, whereas the prevalence rates of Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworms, Strongyloides stercoralis, Schistosoma mansoni and Entamoeba histolytica were higher in the inhabitants of the Cabo City area. Only Giardia lamblia was more prevalent in the out-patients of IMIP hospital. Test tube cultivation revealed that the prevalence rate of Necator americanus in both areas was much higher than that of Ancylostoma duodenale , and also that the prevalence rate of S. stercoralis of the IMIP patients and Cabo inhabitants were 4.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Six hundred and fifteen sera were serologically examined for amoebiasis by the gel diffusion precipitation test (GDP) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using the antigen prepared from axenically cultured trophozoite of E. histolytica (strain HM-ITMSS). No positive reaction was observed in all of the sera as examined by GDP, while 32 out of 615 sera were positive on ELISA.

Serological studies on shistosomiasis mansoni in the Northeast Brasil

Sera from the patients (N = 10) with schistosomiasis mansoni of the hospital of Federal University of Pernambuco, the Schistosoma mansoni egg-positive (N = 51) and -negative (N = 452) inhabitants in Cabo City area, out-patients (N = 37) of the IMIP hospital and Japanese immigrants (N = 127) in Petrolina City area of northeast Brazil as well as Japanese healthy subjects (N = 30) were examined by serological tests including an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with antigens prepared from eggs (ELISA-egg) and adult worms (ELISA-adult). The ELISA with egg or adult antigen correctly identified 100% of the uninfected individuals lived in non-endemic area of schistosomiasis. Moreover, when examined cross-reactivity of our ELISA with sera isolated from 78 subjects infected with various intestinal parasitic infections, only one of these sera reacted with the egg and adult antigens. On the examination of 51 sera from the egg-positive subjects, the ELISA-egg revealed the highest sensitivity (98.0%), whereas a large number of false negative reactions of ELISA-adult, Ouchterlony method using adult antigen, circumoval precipitation and immediate intradermal skin test were observed. A low sensitivity of these serologic tests except for ELISA-egg appears to be primarily due to their inability to detect antibody in the sera from egg-positive infantiles. There was no positive correlation between the absorbance values of these two types of ELISA among the sera isolated from ELISA-positive subjects. Rather, by the reactivity of these sera to egg or adult antigen, they could be divided into two subgroups; one reacted more positively with egg antigen and the other with adult antigen. Moreover, it was confirmed that the sera from young subjects (under 20 years old) appear to be highly reactive to the egg antigen than did aged ones. These data suggest that the ELISA with egg antigen, but not with the adult antigen, appears to be useful for the serological survey of schistosomiasis mansoni in the endemic area of northeast Brazil.

Parasitological and serological studies on amoebiasis and other intestinal parasitic infections in the rural sector around Recife, Northeast Brazil

Parasitological examinations were carried out during July to December, 1989, on 485 inhabitants of four villages in São Lourenço da Mata, 25 km northwest of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. Approximately 99.6% of the inhabitants were infected with at least one species of intestinal parasites. A high prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni (82.1%), hookworm (80.2%) Trichuris trichiura (69.9%), Ascaris lumbricoides (61.9%) and Entamoeba coli (36.7%) infections were demonstrated. Test tube cultivation revealed that the most common species of hookworm in this region was Necator americanus (88.4%), and also that the prevalence of Strongyloides stercoralis was 5.8%. Three hundred and thirty-four sera were serologically examined for amoebiasis by the gel diffusion precipitation test (GDP) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). No positive reaction was observed in all sera as examined by GDP, while 24 sera were positive by ELISA.

Effect of b-Propiolactone treatment on the complement activation mediated by equine antisera

Reduction of complement activation through an alteration of the Fc fragment of immunoglobulins by ONT FACE="Symbol">bont>-propiolactone treatment was carried out in equine antisera raised against rabies virus, Bothrops venoms and diphtherial toxin. Results were evaluated by means of an anaphylactic test performed on guinea-pigs, and compared to the ones obtained with the same sera purified by saline precipitation (ammonium sulfate), followed or not by enzymatic digestion with pepsin. Protein purity levels for antibothropic serum were 184.5 mg/g and 488.5 mg/g in ONT FACE="Symbol">bont>-propiolactone treated and pepsin-digested sera, respectively. The recovery of specific activity was 100% and 62.5% when using antibothropic serum treated byONT FACE="Symbol"> bont>-propiolactone and pepsin digestion, respectively. The antidiphtherial and anti-rabies sera treated with ONT FACE="Symbol">bont>-propiolactone and pepsin presented protein purity levels of 5,698 and 7,179 Lf/g, 16,233 and 6,784 IU/g, respectively. The recovery of specific activity for these antisera were 88.8%, 77.7%, 100% and 36,5%, respectively. ONT FACE="Symbol">bont>-propiolactone treatment induced a reduction in complement activation, tested "in vivo", without significant loss of biological activity. This treatment can be used in the preparation of heterologous immunoglobulins for human use.

Molecular analysis of the dengue virus type 1 and 2 in Brazil based on sequences of the genomic envelope-nonstructural protein 1 junction region

The genomic sequences of the Envelope-Non-Structural protein 1 junction region (E/NS1) of 84 DEN-1 and 22 DEN-2 isolates from Brazil were determined. Most of these strains were isolated in the period from 1995 to 2001 in endemic and regions of recent dengue transmission in São Paulo State. Sequence data for DEN-1 and DEN-2 utilized in phylogenetic and split decomposition analyses also include sequences deposited in GenBank from different regions of Brazil and of the world. Phylogenetic analyses were done using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Results for both DEN-1 and DEN-2 data are ambiguous, and support for most tree bipartitions are generally poor, suggesting that E/NS1 region does not contain enough information for recovering phylogenetic relationships among DEN-1 and DEN-2 sequences used in this study. The network graph generated in the split decomposition analysis of DEN-1 does not show evidence of grouping sequences according to country, region and clades. While the network for DEN-2 also shows ambiguities among DEN-2 sequences, it suggests that Brazilian sequences may belong to distinct subtypes of genotype III.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998

The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for north/south dipole pattern (warm or cold) of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic present values (magnitude and sign) consistent with those found in previous works on the relationship between Amazon rainfall variations and the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. However, austral summer and autumn composites for the years with simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and warm north/south dipole of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic show negative precipitation anomalies extending eastward over the center-eastern Amazon. This result indicates the important role played by the tropical Atlantic in the Amazon anomalous rainfall distribution.

The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

A Preliminary Investigation on the Chemical Composition of the Cell Surface of Five Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli Serotypes

The cell surfaces of five enteropathogenic Escherichia coli serotypes (O111:H2; O111:H12; O125:H9; O119:H6; O26:H11) were assayed by chemical methods, lectin agglutination tests and spectroscopy associated to transmission electron microscopy. Results of lectin agglutination assays showed that all strains reacted with mannosebinding lectins. Strains belonging to serotype O125:H9 also agglutinated with lectins which recognize galactose and Nacetylgalactosamine residues. The bacterial cells were treated with 0.01M phosphate buffered saline (pH 7.0) at 100oC for 2 hr and the extracts were submitted to precipitation and fractionated by Cetavlon. Phosphate, total sugar and protein contents were determined. Gas liquid chomatography-mass spectrometry analysis of alditol acetates showed the presence of galactose, mannose, fucose, glucose and traces of ribose. Spectroscopic analysis of intact cells showed the presence of a capsule-like structure which was not totally preserved after extraction. Some cells were still surrounded by an amorphous capsular-like material after polysaccharide extraction.

Extracellular serine-proteinases isolated from Streptomyces alboniger: Partial characterization and effect of aprotinin on cellular structure

Streptomyces alboniger ATCC 12461 grown in brain heart infusion (BHI) medium produced two extracellular serine-proteinases, denoted SP I and SP II, which were purified by ammonium sulfate precipitation and aprotinin-agarose affinity chromatography. SP I was purified 88,9-fold and SP II 66,7- fold, with 33.4% and 10.4% yield, respectively. The optimum pH for the proteinases activity, using a-N-p-tosyl-L-arginine-methyl ester (TAME) as substrate, was 9-10 and the optimum temperature was 37ºC. The proteolytic activity of SP I and SP II was inhibited by aprotinin and SP I was partially inhibited by leupeptin, both serine-proteinase inhibitors. S. alboniger growth in BHI-liquid medium decreased when 5 mg/ml, 10 mg/ml of aprotinin was used, being completely inhibited with 20 mg/ml and 40 mg/ml. At the ultrastructural level, aprotinin-treated S. alboniger cells showed swelling of the bacterial body and condensation of the genetic material, probably related to the inhibition of its growth.

Study on phlebotomine sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) fauna in Belo Horizonte, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

A study on the phlebotomine sand fly fauna in Belo Horizonte city, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, was carried out. From April 2001 to March 2003, monthly systematic collections were performed in three houses from each of the nine regions of the city, using CDC light traps for four consecutive days. The traps were set into the houses and in peridomestic areas totaling 54 traps. A number of 3871 sand fly specimens of the genera Lutzomyia and Brumptomyia were collected. Sixty eight percent of the specimens were L. longipalpis and 16% L. whitmani, insect vectors of visceral and American cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and frequency of precipitation suggest that the number of insects increases after rainy periods. During the same period mentioned above, seasonal captures were carried out in parks and green areas of Belo Horizonte, using Shannon trap. A total of 579 phlebotomine sand flies were collected from which 398 (68.7%) were females with the predominance of L. whitmani and L. monticola. Those specimens were used for natural infection examination, by polymerase chain reaction. No Leishmania DNA was present in any of the specimens tested.

U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.