Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Molecular characterisation of hepatitis B virus in the resident Chinese population in Panama City

Despite the effectiveness of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccines, it is estimated that 350 million individuals suffer from chronic HBV infection and more than 50% of these affected individuals live on the Asian continent. Panama is a country with a great diversity of foreign groups; the Chinese community is a large example of this phenomenon. There is an urgent need to perform studies that evaluate the prevalence and the genetic diversity of HBV in this community. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of HBV and its genotypes and mutant variants in the Chinese population residing in Panama. In total, 320 subjects were enrolled in the study. Forty-two subjects (13.1%) were positive for HBsAg and HBV-DNA from 18 subjects revealed the presence of genotypes B2 and C1. Secondary mutations associated with drug resistance at positions rtV207L and rtN239T of the reverse transcriptase gene were identified. Additionally, the mutation pair A1762T/G1764A was found in three samples and the mutation G1896A was detected in an HBeAg-negative subject. In conclusion, to our knowledge, this is the first study to report high HBV prevalence rates in resident ethnic Chinese in Central America and the presence of genotypes B2 and C1 in this region.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Bayesian genetic parameters for body weight and survival of Nile tilapia farmed in Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09-0.27), 0.21 (0.12-0.32) and 0.32 (0.22-0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable.

Spacing, population density and nitrogen fertilization in corn grown in an Oxisoil

The objective of this study was to evaluate yield components, leaf nitrogen content and grain yield in corn as affected by row spacing, plant density and nitrogen topdressing. The experiment was conducted with the single-cross hybrid AG 8021, in the municipality of Toledo-PR, in an Oxisoil under no-tillage system, in the crop year 2005/ 2006. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design and treatments in split-split-plots, with four replications. The two row spacings (0.45 and 0.90 m) were allocated in the main plots, the two plant densities (60,000 and 80,000 plants ha-1) were allocated in the subplots and the three nitrogen rates (80, 100, 120 and 140 kg ha-1 N) were allocated in the sub-subplots. Topdress nitrogen was applied using urea as N source. The rise of the plant population from 60,000 to 80,000 plants ha-1 and the application of topdress nitrogen resulted in increased production components. The application of topdress fertilization provided increase in leaf N content and grain yield for the spacings 0.45 m and 0.90 m. Yield was higher in the spacing 0.45 m than 0.90 m. Yield was higher with 60,000 plants than with 80,000 plants at 0.90 m, while at 0.45 m there was no difference in relation to the plant density.

The measurement by serological means of the impact of the Hong Kong/68 influenza virus on a population

In order to obtain evidence on the size of the impact of the Hong Kong/68 variant of influenza A2 virus on the population of São Paulo, Brazil, serum samples taken in 1967 before this variant appeared and during successive years after it appeared were examined for their antibody content. Haemagglutination-inhibition tests performed on a total of 2726 serum samples from adults showed a sharp decrease in 1969 of the proportion of sera without antibody to the Hong Kong/68 variant and a corresponding mercase in the proportion with high titres. It was concluded that about three-quarters of the adult population became infected at some time after the variant appeared, the majority in the first year of prevalence.

The population of Brazil

In 1970 the population of Brazil with 94,508,554 inhabitants was extreme youth, since 42.67% was composed of children under 14 years old. In that year the proportion of female was 50.2%. The population density increased from 1.17 inhabitants /km² in 1872 to 11.18 in 1970, and in this last year the range was 1.03 in the North region and 43.90 in the South-East region. The urban population increased from 31.24% in 1940 to 55.98% in 1970 and for the first time the rural population was smaller than the urban population. In 1950 concerning with marital status 39% of the population 15 years old and over was single and 54% married. In 1970 this rate was respectively 35.4% and 56.6%. The population economically inactive increased from 49.17% in 1940 to 52.24% in 1970. The literacy ratio increased from 43% in 1940, to 48% in 1950 and 68.04% in 1970. The crude birth rate was 43/1000 live births in 1950 and fell to 37.7/1000 in 1970. The fertility rate decreased from 179.3/1000 women (15-49 years old} to 156.7/1000 in 1960/70. The crude death rate decreased from 20.60/1000 inhabitants in 1940/50 to 9.4/1000 in 1960/70. The infant mortality rate still remains high: 171/1000 live births in 1940/50 and 170/1000 in 1971. Concerning with the size of the cities, 8 in 1940 had 100,000 or more inhabitants and in 1970 this number increased to 94 cities. The population growth increased from 2.38% in 1940/50, to 2.99% in 1950/60 and 2.83% in 1960./70. Brazil is the first country in population size in Latin America and the eighth in the world. Concerning his area, Brazil is the fifth country in size.

Smoking, consumption of alcohol and sedentary life style in population grouping and their relationships with lipemic disorders

The study, part of the project "Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, lipemic disorders, hypertension, obesity and diabetis mellitus in a population of the metropolitan area of the southeastern region of Brazil", had the following objectives: a) the characterization and distribution among typical human socio-economic groupings, of the prevalence of some particular habits which constitute aspects of life-style-the use of tobacco, the use of alcohol and sedentary activity; b) the establishment of the interrelation between the above-mentioned habits and some lipemic disorders. The prevalence of the habits cited behaved in the following manner: the use of tobacco predominated among men, distributed uniformly throughout the social strata; among the women the average percentage of smokers was 18,9%, a significant difference occurring among the highest socio-economic class, where the average was of 40.2%. The sedentary style of life presented high prevalence, among both men and women with exception of the women of the highest socio-economic level and of the skilled working class. The use of alcohol, as one would expect, is a habit basically practised by the men, without any statistically significant differences between classes. For the purpose of establishing associations between these risk fictors and lipemic conditions four situations were chosen, of the following characteristics: 1- total cholesterol > or = 220 mg/dl and triglycerides > or = 150 mg/dl; 2- HDL cholesterol <35 mg/dl for men and <45 mg/dl for women and triglycerides levels > or = 150 mg/dl; 3- HDL cholesterol <35 mg/dl for men and <45 mg/dl for women and triglycerides levels <150 mg/dl; 4- total cholesterol 220 mg/dl with triglycerides levels <150 mg/dl. Six models of multiple (backward) regression were established, with seven independent variables- age, sex, use of tobacco, consumption of alcohol, light physical activity, hypertension and obesity. Significant associations (P<0,05) were revealed with hypercholesterolemia, accompanied by triglyceride levels > or = 150 mg/dl, and the following independent variables: age, use of tobacco and the interactions between obesity and smoking, age and sedentary lifestyle, sex and obesity (R2=22%); the standardized B coefficient showed that the variables with the greatest weight in the forecasting of the variation in the levels of cholesterol were smoking and the interaction between obesity and smoking. The hypercholesterolemia accompanied by triglycerides levels <150 mg/dl showed a positive association between total cholesterol and sex and the interactions obesity/smoking and sex/obesity. As regards HDL cholesterol accompanied by triglyceride/ levels > or = 150 mg/dl was inversely associated with obesity and the interaction smoking/ age and directly with age (R=31%). The standardized B coeffients, indicated that the variables obesity and the interactions smoking/age possessed a weight three times greater than age alone in accounting for the variation in the serum levels of HDL cholesterol. When accompanied by triglycerides <150 mg/dl there was no association between and the independent variables and the set of them presented R equal to 22%. The sum of top, in the population stutied in this project, the component habits of life-style (smoking, alcohol consumption and sedentary activity) which constitute risk factors which determine morbidity from atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases are be found distributed through all the typical social groupings of this particular form of social organization. On the other hand, the seven independent variables used in the multiple regression models for the explanation of the lipemic conditions considered presented multiple determination coefficients which varied, approximately, between 20% and 30%. Thus it is important that in the genetic epidemiology the study of the morbidities in question be emphasized.

Poverty levels and children's health status: study of risk factors in an urban population of low socioeconomic level

To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.

Evaluation of dog population in an urban area of Southeastern Brazil

Planning control programs, for diseases such as rabies requires information on the size and structure of the dog and cat population. In order to evaluate the dog population of the urban area of Araçatuba city, S. Paulo State, Brazil, a survey was conducted using a questionnaire to interview members of households. Eighty-eight districts were visited (37,778 houses) and the interview was possible at 77.93% of these. Human population size evaluated was 113,157 inhabitants. Houses that owned animals represented 55.2%, 26,926 of the animals concerned were dogs and 5,755 were cats. Of the dogs, 56.64% were 1-4 year olds and males represented 56.2% of the total population. Dog: person ratio was estimated at 2.8 dogs to every 10 persons, almost 3 times the ratio hitherto estimated and used in the planning of rabies vaccination campaigns.

The Bambuí health and ageing study (BHAS): methodological approach and preliminary results of a population-based cohort study of the elderly in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cohort study has been designed to identify predictors of adverse health events in the elderly. The methodology of the study and preliminary descriptive results are presented. METHODS: The study population comprises all residents of Bambuí (Minas Gerais, Brazil), aged 60 or more years (n=1.742). From these, 92.2% were interviewed and 85.9% underwent clinical examination, consisting of haematological and biochemical tests, serology for Trypanosoma cruzi, anthropometric and blood pressure measures and electrocardiogram. Aliquots of serum, plasma and DNA were stored for future investigations. The baseline interview included sociodemographic characteristics, self-referred health condition and history of selected diseases, medication use, health service use, source of medical care, physical activities, smoking, drinking and eating habits, reproductive history, physical functioning, life events, social support and mental health. Individuals are being followed up annually. RESULTS: The following characteristics predominated among participants: women (60,0%), married (48.9%) or widowed (35.4%), people living in households with up to 2 residents (73.8%), heads of family (76.7%), people with monthly income between 1.00 and 2.99 Brazilian minimum wages (62.0%) and people with up to 4 years of schooling (89.1%). The median age was 68 years. Among the cohort members, only 1.7% were lost in the first follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the characteristics of the study population were very similar to those from other epidemiological studies of the elderly based on large Brazilian cities. The small number of losses to follow-up indicates that the choice of Bambuí was adequate, assuring the feasibility of a long term cohort study.

Food frequency consumption and lipoproteins serum levels in the population of an urban area, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify the association between food group consumption frequency and serum lipoprotein levels among adults. METHODS: The observations were made during a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of men and women over 20 years old living in Cotia county, S. Paulo, Brazil. Data on food frequency consumption, serum lipids, and other covariates were available for 1,045 adults. Multivariate analyses adjusted by age, gender, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, educational level, family income, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption were performed. RESULTS: Consumption of processed meat, chicken, red meat, eggs and dairy foods were each positively and significantly correlated with LDL-C, whereas the intake of vegetables and fruits showed an inverse correlation. Daily consumption of processed meat, chicken, red meat, eggs, and dairy foods were associated with 16.6 mg/dl, 14.5 mg/dl, 11.1 mg/dl, 5.8 mg/dl, and 4.6 mg/dl increase in blood LDL-C, respectively. Increases of daily consumption of fruit and vegetables were associated with 5.2 mg/dl and 5.5 mg/dl decreases in LDL-C, respectively. Alcohol beverage consumption showed a significant positive correlation with HDL-C. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary habits in the study population seem to contribute substantially to the variation in blood LDL and HDL concentrations. Substantially CHD risk reduction could be achieved with dietary changes.

Intra-population plasticity of Anopheles darlingi's (Diptera, Culicidae) biting activity patterns in the state of Amapá, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the variation in Anopheles darlingi's biting activity compared to An. marajoara in the same locality and to biting activity data from other regions. METHODS: Using human bait, eight observations of the biting activity of An. darlingi and An. marajoara were carried out during 1999 and 2000 in the municipality of São Raimundo do Pirativa, state of Amapá, Brazil. Each observation consisted of three consecutive 13-hour collections, close to full moon. There were shifts of collectors in the observation points and nocturnal periods. RESULTS: An. darlingi revealed considerable plasticity of biting activity in contrast to An. marajoara, which showed well-defined crepuscular biting peaks. No significant correlation between density and biting activity was found, but a significant correlation existed between time and proportional crepuscular activity, indicating underlying ecological processes not yet understood. Two of the four available data sets having multiple observations at one locality showed considerable plasticity of this species' biting patterns as well. CONCLUSION: Intra-population variation of biting activity can be as significant as inter-population variation. Some implications in malaria vector control and specific studies are also discussed.

Outpatient health service utilization and associated factors: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that lead people to visit a doctor in Brazil and assess differences between socioeconomic groups. METHODS: A cross-sectional study comprising 1,260 subjects aged 15 or more was carried out in southern Brazil. Demographic, socioeconomic, health needs and regular source of care data were analyzed concerning visits to a doctor within two months from the interview. Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Adjusted PR showed that women having stressful life events, health insurance, and a regular doctor increased the outcome. A dose-related response was found with self-reported health, and the probability of visiting a doctor increased with health needs. Analysis in the chronic disease group revealed that uneducated lower income subjects had a 62% reduction in the chance of visiting a doctor compared to uneducated higher income ones. However, as it was seen a significant interaction between income and education, years of schooling increased utilization in this group. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the existence of health inequity in the poorest group that could be overcome with education. Specific measures reinforcing the importance of having a regular doctor may also improve access in the underserved group.

HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135), indeterminate (n=167) and seronegative blood donors (n=116) were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA) and Western blot (WB). RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.