183 resultados para Bayesian Inference, HIghest Posterior Density, Invariance, Odds Ratio, Objective Priors

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Tem sido grande o número de estudos retrospectivos e transversais controlados que utilizam o "odds ratio" como medida de intensidade de associação. Visando melhor compreensão do significado desta medida, o "odds ratio" foi comparado com a razão de prevalências; foi estudado o comportamento desta medida em relação a variação amostrai de prevalência do fator de risco nos casos e nos controles; e a importância de expressar o "odds ratio" com o respectivo intervalo de confiança.

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It is quite difficult to diagnose active toxoplasmosis in patients with ocular toxoplasmosis. Active posterior uveitis presumably due to Toxoplasma gondii infection (APUPT) is seldom produced during a prime-infection; hence most patients do not show high IgM antibodies. High levels of IgA have been described in active toxoplasmosis. The purpose of this study was to investigate possible association between APUPT and the specific anti-parasite sIgA in tears. The study was carried out as case-control. Tears of 25 clinically confirmed APUPT patients and 50 healthy control subjects were analyzed. All were IgG seropositive. Specific sIgA was determined by ELISA assay using T. gondii RH strain crude extract. Anti-T. gondii sIgA was found in 84% of the cases and in 22% of the control subjects. The intensity of the reaction was higher in APUPT cases (P = 0.007). There was strong association between APUPT patients and lacrimal sIgA (odds-ratio 18.61, P = 0.0001). ELISA test sensitivity was 84% and specificity 78% . Our data suggest that anti-T.gondii secretory IgA found in tears may become an important marker for active ocular toxoplasmosis.

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The prevalence of mansonelliasis was studied in the municipality of Tefé, state of Amazonas, Brazil. The prevalence (thick blood smear method) was 13.6% (147/1,078), higher in the Solimões River region (16.3%) than in the Tefé River region (6.3%). In the sampled communities in the Solimões River region, a higher density of cases was observed, as indicated by a kernel analysis (odds ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.57). Males had a higher prevalence (χ2 = 31.292, p < 0.001) than women. Mansonella ozzardi prevalence was higher in retirees and farmers (28.9% and 27%, respectively). Prevalence also significantly increased with age (χ2 = -128.17, p < 0.001), with the highest numbers occurring in persons older than 67 years.

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Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be a good predictor of future adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Changes in the QRS terminal portion have also been associated with adverse outcomes following STEMI. Objective: To investigate the relationship between ECG ischemia grade and NLR in patients presenting with STEMI, in order to determine additional conventional risk factors for early risk stratification. Methods: Patients with STEMI were investigated. The grade of ischemia was analyzed from the ECG performed on admission. White blood cells and subtypes were measured as part of the automated complete blood count (CBC) analysis. Patients were classified into two groups according to the ischemia grade presented on the admission ECG, as grade 2 ischemia (G2I) and grade 3 ischemia (G3I). Results: Patients with G3I had significantly lower mean left ventricular ejection fraction than those in G2I (44.58 ± 7.23 vs. 48.44 ± 7.61, p = 0.001). As expected, in-hospital mortality rate increased proportionally with the increase in ischemia grade (p = 0.036). There were significant differences in percentage of lymphocytes (p = 0.010) and percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.004), and therefore, NLR was significantly different between G2I and G3I patients (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only NLR was the independent variable with a significant effect on ECG ischemia grade (odds ratio = 1.254, 95% confidence interval 1.120–1.403, p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found an association between G3I and elevated NLR in patients with STEMI. We believe that such an association might provide an additional prognostic value for risk stratification in patients with STEMI when combined with standardized risk scores.

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Chagas disease is a major public health problem in Bolivia. In the city of Cochabamba, 58% of the population lives in peripheral urban districts ("popular zones") where the infection prevalence is extremely high. From 1995 to 1999, we studied the demographics of Chagas infections in children from five to 13 years old (n = 2218) from the South zone (SZ) and North zone (NZ) districts, which differ in social, environmental, and agricultural conditions. Information gathered from these districts demonstrates qualitative and quantitative evidence for the active transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in urban Cochabamba. Seropositivity was high in both zones (25% in SZ and 19% in NZ). We observed a high risk of infection in children from five to nine years old in SZ, but in NZ, a higher risk occurred in children aged 10-13, with odds ratio for infection three times higher in NZ than in SZ. This difference was not due to triatomine density, since more than 1,000 Triatoma infestans were captured in both zones, but was possibly secondary to the vector infection rate (79% in SZ and 37% in NZ). Electrocardiogram abnormalities were found to be prevalent in children and pre-adolescents (SZ = 40%, NZ = 17%), indicating that under continuous exposure to infection and re-infection, a severe form of the disease may develop early in life. This work demonstrates that T. cruzi infection should also be considered an urban health problem and is not restricted to the rural areas and small villages of Bolivia.

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Helicobacter pylori causes chronic gastric inflammation and significantly increases the risk of duodenal and gastric ulcer disease and distal gastric carcinoma. In this study, we evaluated the Helicobacter pylori vacA and cagA genotypes in patients from a Brazilian region where there is a high prevalence of gastric cancer. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to investigate vacA mosaicism and cagA status in the gastric mucosa of 134 H. pylori-positive patients, including 76 with gastritis: 28 with peptic ulcer disease and 30 with gastric cancer. The s1m1 variant was the predominant vacA genotype observed, whereas the s1 allele was more frequently observed in patients with more severe diseases associated with H. pylori infection [p = 0.03, odds ratio (OR) = 5.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15-38.60]. Furthermore, all of the s1 alleles were s1b. Mixed vacA m1/m2 strains were found more frequently in patients with gastric cancer and a cagA-positive status was significantly associated with gastric cancer (p = 0.016, OR = 10.36, 95% CI = 1.35-217.31). Patients with gastric cancer (21/21, 100%, p = 0.006) or peptic ulcers (20/21, 95%, p = 0.02) were more frequently colonised by more virulent H. pylori strains compared to gastritis patients (41/61, 67.2%). In conclusion, in the northeastern of Brazil, which is one of the regions with the highest prevalence of gastric cancer in the country, infection with the most virulent H. pylori strains, carrying the cagA gene and s1m1 vacA alleles, predominates and is correlated with more severe H. pylori-associated diseases.

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OBJETIVO: analisar qual das características propostas pelo BIRADS-US tem maior impacto na diferenciação das lesões benignas das malignas. MÉTODOS: estudamos as características ultra-sonográficas do BIRADS em 384 nódulos submetidos à biópsia percutânea no período de fevereiro de 2003 a dezembro de 2006. Utilizou-se, para o exame, o aparelho Logic 5, com transdutor linear multifreqüencial de 7,5-12 MHz. A análise ultra-sonográfica do nódulo foi baseada no BIRADS-US levando em conta: forma, orientação, margem, limites da lesão, ecogenicidade, características acústicas posteriores, o tecido circunjacente e a presença de calcificações. Estes dados foram submetidos à análise estatística com modelo de regressão logística. Para o estudo de associação entre estas variáveis utilizamos o teste do c² e também calculamos a sensibilidade e a especificidade das variáveis "tecido ao redor", "calcificações", "efeito posterior", "limite da lesão" e "orientação". RESULTADOS: as lesões benignas representaram 42,4% e as malignas, 57,6%. A análise por regressão logística encontrou odds ratio (OR) aumentado para câncer de 7,7 vezes quando o tecido ao redor esteve alterado, de 6,2 vezes quando houve presença das microcalcificações no interior das lesões, de 1,9 quando o efeito acústico foi sombra, de 25,0 vezes quando houve o halo ecogênico e de 7,1 vezes quando a orientação foi não paralela. CONCLUSÕES: dentre as características estudadas, o limite da lesão, representado pela presença ou não do halo ecogênico, é o mais importante diferenciador das massas benignas das malignas.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate whether climacteric women undergoing liver transplantation had higher prevalence of decreased bone mass than those without any liver disease. METHODS: A cross-sectional study with 48 women receiving follow-up care at a university hospital in Southeastern Brazil, from February 4th 2009 to January 5th 2011, was conducted. Of these women, 24 were 35 years or older and had undergone liver transplantation at least one year before study entry. The remaining 24 women had no liver disease and their ages and menstrual patterns were similar to those of transplanted patients. Laboratorial tests (follicle-stimulating hormone and estradiol) and bone density measurements of the lumbar spine and femur (equipment Hologic, Discovery WI) were performed. Statistical analysis was carried out by Fisher's exact test, simple Odds Ratio (OR), and multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean age of the women included in the study was 52.8 (±10.7) years-old, 27.1% were premenopausal and 72.9% were peri/postmenopausal. Approximately 14.6% of these women exhibited osteoporosis and 35.4% had low bone mass. The following items were associated with decreased bone mass: being postmenopausal (OR=71.4; 95%CI 3.8 - 1,339.7; p<0.0001), current age over 49 years-old (OR=11.4; 95%CI 2.9 - 44.0; p=0.0002), and serum estradiol levels lower than 44.5 pg/mL (OR=18.3; 95%CI 3.4 - 97.0; p<0.0001). Having a history of liver transplantation was not associated with decreased bone mass (OR=1.4; 95%CI 0.4 - 4.3; p=0.56). CONCLUSION: Liver transplantation was not associated with decreased bone mass in this group of climacteric women.

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Currently, one of the biggest challenges faced by organic no-tillage farming is weed control. Thus, the use of cropping practices that help in the control of weeds is extremely important. The objective of this study was to evaluate population density and level of weed infestation in an organic no-tillage corn cropping system under different soil covers. The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design with six repetitions and five treatments, consisting of three soil covers in an organic no-tillage system, and an organic and a conventional system, both without soil cover. The treatments with soil cover used a grass species represented by the black oat, a leguminous species represented by the white lupine, and intercropping between both species. Corn was sown with spacing of 1.0 m between rows and 0.20 m between plants, using the commercial hybrid AG 1051. Infestation in corn was evaluated at stages V5 and V10, and weed density was evaluated at stage V5. The use of black oat straw alone or intercropped with white lupine, in the organic no-tillage corn cropping system, reduced the percentage of weed infestation and absolute weed density. Management-intensive systems and systems without soil cover showed higher relative densities for species Oxalis spp., Galinsoga quadriradiata and Stachys arvensis. The species Cyperus rotundus showed the highest relative density on organic no-tillage corn cropping systems. Black oat straw in the organic no-tillage cropping system limited the productive potential of corn.

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A exposição ao ruído ocupacional pode provocar lesões em nível da orelha interna, sendo que o registro das Emissões Otoacústicas por Produtos de Distorção (EOAPD) é capaz de identificar alterações auditivas iniciais relacionadas a tais lesões, auxiliando no diagnóstico precoce da PAIRO. OBJETIVO: Avaliar as EOAPD como método de diagnóstico de alterações fisiopatológicas iniciais provocadas por exposição ao ruído ocupacional. FORMA DE ESTUDO: Transversal. MÉTODO: Foram avaliados 74 trabalhadores do sexo masculino, lotados no Campus Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo na capital, divididos em dois grupos pareados por idade e com exame de audiometria tonal dentro de limites aceitáveis: 37 indivíduos expostos ao ruído ocupacional e 37 não-expostos. RESULTADOS: A estimativa do risco (Odds Ratio) de ausência de resposta no registro das EOAPD foi 12 vezes maior para o grupo de expostos ao ruído ocupacional (IC 95% 3,1 - 45,9), nas freqüências de 3, 4 e 6 kHz agrupadas. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem que a exposição ao ruído ocupacional pode provocar alterações nos registros das EOAPD, mesmo em indivíduos com exame de audiometria tonal dentro de limites aceitáveis, indicando que este exame pode ser importante como método de diagnóstico precoce da PAIRO.

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Foi realizado um estudo clínico-epidemiológico da esquistossomose em escolares (6 - 14 anos) da Ilha, em Minas Gerais (Brasil). Foram feitos exame parasitológico de fezes pelo método de KATO-KATZ e exame clínico em, respectivamente, 86,7 e 85,4% da população escolar. Foi realizado levantamento sócio-econômico e foram pesquisados os sinais e sintomas apresentados pelos pacientes e seus contatos com águas naturais. O índice de infecção pelo Schistosoma mansoni foi 32,7%, predominaram as baixas contagens de ovos nas fezes (89,0% dos pacientes eliminavam menos de 500 ovos/grama de fezes) e o índide de esplenomegalia foi 7,7%. Os pacientes positivos (com ovos de S. mansoni nas fezes) foram comparados aos negativos (sem ovos nas fezes e com intradermoreação negativa), verificando-se que a infecção pelo S. mansoni era significativamente mais freqüente entre os trabalhadores rurais, entre os que residiam em casas de pior qualidade e entre aqueles cujos chefes de família eram analfabetos. Constituíram os maiores fatores de risco para a infecção pelo S. mansoni nesta área: a) ter contatos com águas naturais para trabalhar na lavoura (Odds Ratio = 18,08); b) ter contatos diários com águas naturais (OR = 13,82) e c) ter contatos com águas naturais para pescar, nadar e/ou brincar (OR = 7,75 e 5,51, respectivamente). Os autores levantam a hipótese de que a transmissão da esquistossomose nesta localidade não ocorre no peridomicílio, mas sim nas lagoas próximas à Ilha e nas plantações agrícolas, provavelmente nas culturas de arroz de várzea.

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Hepatitis B virus (HBV) serological markers were investigated in 40 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and in two age and sex matched control groups, comprising 40 patients with other cancers and 80 healthy individuals, resident in Bahia, Brazil. Serologic tests were done by radioimmunoassay. The study observed high proportion of seropositivity to HBsAg (42.5%) and of those presenting HBsAg or antiHBc (65.0%) among HCC cases, higher in men than women and in those aged 17 to 30 years old. HBsAg seropositivity among HCC patients was greater than in the control group with other cancers (7.5%) and in healthy controls (2.5%), corresponding to odds ratio estimates of 15.0 (95% CI 3.29, 68.30) and 33.0 (95% CI 9.13, 119.28), both statistically significant. HBeAg was not observed and antiHBe was present in 41.2% of cases, suggesting the absence of viral replication, possibly with viral DNA intergration into the hepatocyte genome. The presence of cirrhosis was associated with HBsAg seropositivity among HCC cases. A history of chronic alcoholism is shown to be more frequently related to those cases with cirrhosis. This study highlights the relevant association between HCC and HBV in Northeast Brazil, particularly for young individuals, and the high risk of development of HCC for HBsAg carriers.

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A controlled trial was performed with the purpose of investigating which factors could be considered of significant risk for the development of basal cell carcinoma. A total of 259 cases of basal cell carcinoma diagnosed from July 1991 to July 1992 were compared with 518 controls matched for age and sex. All subjects in both groups were white. Protocol data were submitted to statistical analysis by the chi-square test and by multiple conditional logistic regression analysis and the following conclusions were reached: 1) light skin color (types I and II of the Fitzpatrick classification), odds ratio of 2.8; outdoor work under constant sunlight, odds ratio of 5.0; the presence of actinic lesions due to exposure to the sun, odds ratio of 4.9, are risk factors perse. 2) Type III skin in the Fitzpatrick classification only represents a risk factor when the patient reports a history of intense sunburns, but not in the absence of such a history. 3) Sunburns per se do not represent a risk factor althorig the point made in item 2 of these conclusions is valid. 4) Other suspected risk factors whose significance was not confirmed by multiple conditioned logistic regression analysis were: residence in rural areas, light eyes and blond hair color, extent of the awareness of the "sun x skin cancer" relationship, familial occurrence of skin cancer, excessive exposure to the sun, and freckles appearing in childhood.

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A associação do câncer de esôfago com os hábitos de fumar e beber, escolaridade e fatores nutricionais foi verificada em um estudo epidemiológico tipo caso-controle, conduzido no Município de São Paulo (Brasil). Oitenta e cinco casos foram comparados com 292 controles hospitalares, com diferentes diagnósticos, inclusive outros tipos de câncer. Estimativas brutas, por ponto e por intervalo, dos odds ratios, foram obtidas para as variáveis de estudo. Com base nos resultados da análise bruta, foram selecionadas oito variáveis para a utilização de análise logística multivariada. O modelo final sugere que tanto o hábito de beber [odds ratio = 3,68; intervalo com 95% de confiança (1,74 - 7,78)], como o de fumar [odds ratio = 4,86; intervalo com.95% de confiança (1,95 - 12,13)] e o consumo freqüente de pimenta [odds ratio = 2,48; intervalo com 95% de confiança (1,46 - 4,23)] são fatores de risco importantes para a doença. Obteve-se odds ratio 3,43 (1,31 - 8,97) para o hábito de fumar cigarro comum e odds ratio 4,18 (1,38 - 12,66) para cigarro de palha.

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Com base em populações hospitalares, foram entrevistados 316 casos e 536 controles para obtenção de informações sobre histórias de trabalho, tabagismo, tabagismo passivo, ocorrência de outros cânceres na família, migração e situação socioeconômica. Os entrevistadores utilizaram um questionário padronizado. Casos e controles foram emparelhados por hospital, sexo e idade. O estudo foi desenvolvido entre 1º de julho de 1990 e 31 de janeiro de 1991 em 14 hospitais da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, SP (Brasil). Foi elaborada uma classificação por escores como forma de ordenar os indivíduos estudados segundo suas histórias de exposições ocupacionais a cancerígenos, conhecidos para o pulmão, acumulando informações sobre a exposição nos locais de trabalho durante a vida, considerando o tipo de atividade, setor de trabalho e tempo em cada emprego. A análise de regressão logística não-condicional mostrou odds ratio: 1,97 (95% IC: 1,52 a 2,55) para os trabalhadores com maiores escores de exposição. Os resultados permitiram inferir que trabalhadores ligados aos setores de produção de diferentes ramos industriais têm duas vezes o risco de desenvolverem neoplasia pulmonar quando comparados aos trabalhadores envolvidos em atividades não-industriais.