Confiabilidade das aferições de estudo sobre violência familiar e desnutrição severa na infância

INTRODUÇÃO: Como parte do programa de investigação sobre violência familiar e desnutrição severa na infância, especificamente um estudo do tipo caso-controle foi avaliada a confiabilidade dos instrumentos utilizados no processo de obtenção de dados. Estudou-se a confiabilidade de quatro componentes do instrumento principal: (a) as Escalas sobre Táticas de Conflitos (Conflicts Tactics Scales - CTS) que medem o grau de conflito/violência familiar; (b) o instrumento CAGE (Cut-down; Annoyed; Guilty & Eye-opener) usado para indicar suspeição de alcoolismo; (c) o NSDUQ (Non-student Drugs Use Questionnaire) que visa aferir o uso de drogas ilícitas; e (d) a medida antropométrica de comprimento. MÉTODO: Para os três primeiros componentes citados foram avaliadas a estabilidade (confiabilidade intra-observador ou teste-reteste) e a equivalência (confiabilidade inter-observador), usando-se os 50 primeiros sujeitos captados no estudo caso-controle de fundo. Para a análise, usou-se o índice Kappa (k) com ajustamento (pseudo-Bayes) para lidar com problemas de estimabilidade. Em relação ao componente "d", foi estudada somente a equivalência (n=73), usando-se o Coeficiente de Correlação Intraclasse (Intra-class Correlation Coefficient - ICC) como estimador. RESULTADOS: Todos os componentes mostraram estabilidade e equivalência aceitáveis. Quanto à estabilidade das CTS, CAGE e NSDUQ, as estimações de k foram em torno de 0,70, 0,78 e 0,85, respectivamente. Em relação à equivalência, encontrou-se os valores de 1,0 para as CTS e NSDUQ e 0,75 para CAGE. A equivalência estimada através do ICC para comprimento foi de 0,99. Algumas situações desviantes foram observadas. Os resultados apontam para uma adequada padronização dos observadores e refletem a boa qualidade do processo de aferição referente ao estudo de fundo, encorajando a equipe de pesquisa a prosseguir com maior segurança.

Aplicação de modelo bayesiano empírico na análise espacial da ocorrência de hanseníase

OBJETIVO: Analisar a distribuição espacial da hanseníase, identificar áreas de possível sub-registro de casos ou de provável alta transmissão (risco) e verificar a associação dessa distribuição à existência de casos de formas multibacilares. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi realizado em Recife, PE, de acordo com 94 bairros analisados. A fonte de coleta de dados foi o Sistema de Informações sobre Agravos de Notificação do Ministério da Saúde. Foi adotada uma abordagem ecológica com utilização do método bayesiano empírico para suavização local de taxas, a partir de informações de bairros vizinhos por adjacência. RESULTADOS: A ocorrência média anual foi de 17,3% de casos novos em menores de 15 anos (28,3% de formas multibacilares), indicando um processo de intensa transmissão da doença. A análise da distribuição espacial de hanseníase apontou três áreas onde se concentram bairros com taxas de detecção elevadas e que possuem baixa condição de vida. CONCLUSÕES: O emprego do modelo bayesiano, baseado em informações de unidades espaciais vizinhas, permitiu estimar novamente indicadores epidemiológicos. Foi possível identificar áreas prioritárias para o programa de controle de hanseníase no município, tanto pelo elevado número de ocorrências correlacionado à presença de formas multibacilares de doença em menores de 15 anos quanto pela existência de subnotificação.

Modelagem Bayesiana do risco de infecção tuberculosa para estudos com perdas de seguimento

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver um modelo estatístico baseado em métodos Bayesianos para estimar o risco de infecção tuberculosa em estudos com perdas de seguimento, comparando-o com um modelo clássico determinístico. MÉTODOS: O modelo estocástico proposto é baseado em um algoritmo de amostradores de Gibbs, utilizando as informações de perdas de seguimento ao final de um estudo longitudinal. Para simular o número desconhecido de indivíduos reatores ao final do estudo e perdas de seguimento, mas não reatores no tempo inicial, uma variável latente foi introduzida no novo modelo. Apresenta-se um exercício de aplicação de ambos os modelos para comparação das estimativas geradas. RESULTADOS: As estimativas pontuais fornecidas por ambos os modelos são próximas, mas o modelo Bayesiano apresentou a vantagem de trazer os intervalos de credibilidade como medidas da variabilidade amostral dos parâmetros estimados. CONCLUSÕES: O modelo Bayesiano pode ser útil em estudos longitudinais com baixa adesão ao seguimento.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Cross-cultural validity of the demand-control questionnaire: Swedish and Brazilian workers

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cross-cultural validity of the Demand-Control Questionnaire, comparing the original Swedish questionnaire with the Brazilian version. METHODS We compared data from 362 Swedish and 399 Brazilian health workers. Confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses were performed to test structural validity, using the robust weighted least squares mean and variance-adjusted (WLSMV) estimator. Construct validity, using hypotheses testing, was evaluated through the inspection of the mean score distribution of the scale dimensions according to sociodemographic and social support at work variables. RESULTS The confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses supported the instrument in three dimensions (for Swedish and Brazilians): psychological demands, skill discretion and decision authority. The best-fit model was achieved by including an error correlation between work fast and work intensely (psychological demands) and removing the item repetitive work (skill discretion). Hypotheses testing showed that workers with university degree had higher scores on skill discretion and decision authority and those with high levels of Social Support at Work had lower scores on psychological demands and higher scores on decision authority. CONCLUSIONS The results supported the equivalent dimensional structures across the two culturally different work contexts. Skill discretion and decision authority formed two distinct dimensions and the item repetitive work should be removed.

Spatial distribution and socioeconomic context of tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.

Spatial analysis of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil (2006-2012)

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.

Spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and geohelminthiasis cases in the rural areas of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence and intensity of geohelminth infections and schistosomiasis remain high in the rural areas of Zona da Mata, Pernambuco (ZMP), Brazil, where these parasites still represent a significant public health problem. The present study aimed to spatially assess the occurrences of schistosomiasis and geohelminthiasis in the ZMP. METHODS: The ZMP has a population of 1,132,544 inhabitants, formed by 43 municipalities. An ecological study was conducted, using secondary data relating to positive human cases and parasite loads of schistosomiasis and positive human cases of geohelminthiasis that were worked up in Excel 2007. We used the coordinates of the municipal headquarters to represent the cities which served as the unit of analysis of this study. The Kernel estimator was used to spatially analyze the data and identify distribution patterns and case densities, with analysis done in ArcGIS software. RESULTS: Spatial analysis from the Kernel intensity estimator made it possible to construct density maps showing that the northern ZMP was the region with the greatest number of children infected with parasites and the populations most intensely infected by Schistosoma mansoni. In relation to geohelminths, there was higher spatial distribution of cases of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura in the southern ZMP, and greater occurrence of hookworms in the northern/central ZMP. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several surveys and studies showing occurrences of schistosomiasis and geohelminthiasis in the ZMP, no preventive measures that are known to have been effective in decreasing these health hazards have yet been implemented in the endemic area.

Natural transovarial transmission of dengue virus 4 in Aedes aegypti from Cuiabá, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease in tropical areas. In Mato Grosso, outbreaks are reported every year, but studies on dengue in this state are scarce. METHODS: Natural transovarial infection of Aedes aegypti by a flavivirus was investigated in the Jardim Industriário neighborhood of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso. Eggs were collected with ovitraps during the dry, intermediate, and rainy seasons of 2012. After the eggs hatched and the larvae developed to adulthood, mosquitoes (n = 758) were identified and allocated to pools of 1-10 specimens according to the collection location, sex, and climatic period. After RNA extraction, multiplex semi-nested RT-PCR was performed to detect the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes, yellow fever virus, West Nile virus and Saint Louis encephalitis virus. RESULTS: DENV-4 was the only flavivirus detected, and it was found in 8/50 pools (16.0%). Three of the positive pools contained females, and five contained males. Their nucleotide sequences presented 96-100% similarity with DENV-4 genotype II strains from Manaus, Amazonas. The minimum infection rate was 10.5 per 1000 specimens, and the maximum likelihood estimator of the infection rate was 11.6 (95% confidence interval: 4.8; 23.3). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first evidence of natural transovarial infection by DENV-4 in Ae. Aegypti in Mato Grosso, suggesting that this type of infection might serve as a mechanism of virus maintenance during interepidemic periods in Cuiabá, a city where dengue epidemics are reported every year. These results emphasize the need for efficient vector population control measures to prevent arbovirus outbreaks in the state.

A structured inventory of spiders (Arachnida, Araneae) in natural and artificial forest gaps at Porto Urucu, Western Brazilian Amazonia

A preliminary survey of the spider fauna in natural and artificial forest gap formations at “Porto Urucu”, a petroleum/natural gas production facility in the Urucu river basin, Coari, Amazonas, Brazil is presented. Sampling was conducted both occasionally and using a protocol composed of a suite of techniques: beating trays (32 samples), nocturnal manual samplings (48), sweeping nets (16), Winkler extractors (24), and pitfall traps (120). A total of 4201 spiders, belonging to 43 families and 393 morphospecies, were collected during the dry season, in July, 2003. Excluding the occasional samples, the observed richness was 357 species. In a performance test of seven species richness estimators, the Incidence Based Coverage Estimator (ICE) was the best fit estimator, with 639 estimated species. To evaluate differences in species richness associated with natural and artificial gaps, samples from between the center of the gaps up to 300 meters inside the adjacent forest matrix were compared through the inspection of the confidence intervals of individual-based rarefaction curves for each treatment. The observed species richness was significantly higher in natural gaps combined with adjacent forest than in the artificial gaps combined with adjacent forest. Moreover, a community similarity analysis between the fauna collected under both treatments demonstrated that there were considerable differences in species composition. The significantly higher abundance of Lycosidae in artificial gap forest is explained by the presence of herbaceous vegetation in the gaps themselves. Ctenidae was significantly more abundant in the natural gap forest, probable due to the increase of shelter availability provided by the fallen trees in the gaps themselves. Both families are identified as potential indicators of environmental change related to the establishment or recovery of artificial gaps in the study area.

Curva de sobrevivência e estimativa de entropia em Lucilia cuprina (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830) is a cosmopolite blowfly species of medical and veterinary importance because it produces myiasis, mainly in ovine. In order to evaluate the demographic characteristics of this species, survivorship curves for 327 adult males and 323 adult females, from generation F1 maintained under experimental conditions, were obtained. Entropy was utilized as the estimator of the survival pattern to quantify the mortality distribution of individuals as a function of age. The entropy values 0.216 (males) and 0.303 (females) were obtained. These results denote that, considering the survivorship interval until the death of the last individual for each sex, the males present a tendency of mortality in more advanced age intervals, in comparison with the females.

Spatial distribution of triatomines in domiciles of an urban area of the Brazilian Southeast Region

Reports of triatomine infestation in urban areas have increased. We analysed the spatial distribution of infestation by triatomines in the urban area of Diamantina, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Triatomines were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance. Spatial patterns of infestation were analysed by Ripley’s K function and Kernel density estimator. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land cover derived from satellite imagery were compared between infested and uninfested areas. A total of 140 adults of four species were captured (100 Triatoma vitticeps, 25Panstrongylus geniculatus, 8 Panstrongylus megistus, and 7 Triatoma arthurneivai specimens). In total, 87.9% were captured within domiciles. Infection by trypanosomes was observed in 19.6% of 107 examined insects. The spatial distributions ofT. vitticeps, P. geniculatus, T. arthurneivai, and trypanosome-positive triatomines were clustered, occurring mainly in peripheral areas. NDVI values were statistically higher in areas infested by T. vitticeps and P. geniculatus. Buildings infested by these species were located closer to open fields, whereas infestations of P. megistus andT. arthurneivai were closer to bare soil. Human occupation and modification of natural areas may be involved in triatomine invasion, exposing the population to these vectors.

Comparação bayesiana de modelos de previsão de diferenças esperadas nas progênies no melhoramento genético de gado Nelore

O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar uma análise bayesiana de modelos auto-regressivos de ordem p, AR(p), para dados em painel referentes às diferenças esperadas nas progênies (DEP) de touros da raça Nelore publicados de 2000 a 2006. Neste trabalho, adotou-se o modelo AR(2), indicado pela análise prévia da função de autocorrelação parcial. As comparações entre as prioris, realizadas por meio do Fator de Bayes e do Pseudo-Fator de Bayes, indicaram superioridade da priori independente t-Student multivariada - Gama inversa em relação à priori hierárquica Normal multivariada - Gama inversa e a priori de Jeffreys. Os resultados indicam a importância de se dividir os animais em grupos homogêneos de acordo com a acurácia. Constatou-se também que, em média, a eficiência de previsão dos valores de DEP para um ano futuro foi próxima de 80%.