Different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control

This paper reviews three different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control. Although these approaches vary in their assessment of costs, the major focus of the paper is on the evaluation of effectiveness. The first model presented is a static economic model which assesses effectiveness in terms of the proportion of cases cured. This model is important in highlighting that the optimal choice of chemotherapy regime depends critically on the level of budget constraint, the unit costs of screening and treatment, the rates of compliance with screening and chemotherapy and the prevalence of infection. The limitations of this approach is that it models the cost-effectiveness of only one cycle of treatment, and effectiveness reflects only the immediate impact of treatment. The second model presented is a prevalence-based dynamic model which links prevalence rates from one year to the next, and assesses effectiveness as the proportion of cases prevented. This model was important as it introduced the concept of measuring the long-term impact of control by using a transmission model which can assess reduction in infection through time, but is limited to assessing the impact only on the prevalence of infection. The third approach presented is a theoretical framework which describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity, and which assesses effectiveness in terms of case-years prevented of infection and morbidity. The use of this model in assessing the cost-effectiveness of age-targeted treatment in controlling Schistosoma mansoni is explored in detail, with respect to varying frequencies of treatment and the interaction between drug price and drug efficacy.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF RELIEF INFLUENCE ON EUCALYPTUS FORESTS: INTERACTION BETWEEN SOLAR IRRADIANCE AND PRODUCTIVITY

ABSTRACT This study aimed to verify the differences in radiation intensity as a function of distinct relief exposure surfaces and to quantify these effects on the leaf area index (LAI) and other variables expressing eucalyptus forest productivity for simulations in a process-based growth model. The study was carried out at two contrasting edaphoclimatic locations in the Rio Doce basin in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two stands with 32-year-old plantations were used, allocating fixed plots in locations with northern and southern exposure surfaces. The meteorological data were obtained from two automated weather stations located near the study sites. Solar radiation was corrected for terrain inclination and exposure surfaces, as it is measured based on the plane, perpendicularly to the vertical location. The LAI values collected in the field were used. For the comparative simulations in productivity variation, the mechanistic 3PG model was used, considering the relief exposure surfaces. It was verified that during most of the year, the southern surfaces showed lower availability of incident solar radiation, resulting in up to 66% losses, compared to the same surface considered plane, probably related to its geographical location and higher declivity. Higher values were obtained for the plantings located on the northern surface for the variables LAI, volume and mean annual wood increase, with this tendency being repeated in the 3PG model simulations.

Factors affecting Cyperus difformis seed germination and seedling emergence

Specific knowledge about the dormancy, germination, and emergence patterns of weed species aids the development of integrated management strategies. Laboratory studies were conducted to determine the effect of several environmental factors on seed germination and seedling emergence of Cyperus difformis. Germination of freshly harvested seeds was inhibited by darkness; however, when seeds were subsequently transferred to complete light they germinated readily. Our results showed that 2 wk of cold stratification overcome the light requirement for germination. Seeds of C. difformis were able to germinate over a broad range of temperatures (25/15, 30/20, 35/25, and 40/30 ºC day/night). The response of germination rate to temperature was described as a non-linear function. Based on model outputs, the base, the optimum and the ceiling temperatures were estimated as 14.81, 37.72 and 45 ºC, respectively. A temperature of 120 ºC for a 5 min was required to inhibit 50% of maximum germination. The osmotic potential and salinity required for 50% inhibition of maximum germination were -0.47 MPa and 135.57 mM, respectively. High percentage of seed germination (89%) was observed at pH=6 and decreased to 12% at alkaline medium (pH 9) pH. Seeds sown on the soil surface gave the greatest percentage of seedling emergence, and no seedlings emerged from seeds buried in soil at depths of 1 cm.

A feature-based object-oriented expert system to model and support product design

In this paper a computer program to model and support product design is presented. The product is represented through a hierarchical structure that allows the user to navigate across the product’s components, and it aims at facilitating each step of the detail design process. A graphical interface was also developed, which shows visually to the user the contents of the product structure. Features are used as building blocks for the parts that compose the product, and object-oriented methodology was used as a means to implement the product structure. Finally, an expert system was also implemented, whose knowledge base rules help the user design a product that meets design and manufacturing requirements.

Forest structure of artificial islands in the Tucuruí dam reservoir in northern Brazil: a test core-area model

Construction of hydroelectric dams in tropical regions has been contributing significantly to forest fragmentation. Alterations at edges of forest fragments impact plant communities that suffer increases in tree damage and dead, and decreases in seedling recruitment. This study aimed to test the core-area model in a fragmented landscape caused by construction of a hydroelectric power plant in the Brazilian Amazon. We studied variations in forest structure between the margin and interiors of 17 islands of 8-100 hectares in the Tucuruí dam reservoir, in two plots (30 and >100m from the margin) per island. Mean tree density, basal area, seedling density and forest cover did not significantly differ between marginal and interior island plots. Also, no significant differences were found in liana density, dead tree or damage for margin and interior plots. The peculiar topographic conditions associated with the matrix habitat and shapes of the island seem to extend edge effects to the islands' centers independently of the island size, giving the interior similar physical microclimatic conditions as at the edges. We propose a protocol for assessing the ecological impacts of edge effects in fragments of natural habitat surrounded by induced (artificial) edges. The protocol involves three steps: (1) identification of focal taxa of particular conservation or management interest, (2) measurement of an "edge function" that describes the response of these taxa to induced edges, and (3) use of a "Core-Area Model" to extrapolate edge function parameters to existing or novel situations.

A theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin Cry 11Bb toxin deduced by homology modelling

Cry11Bb is an insecticidal crystal protein produced by Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin during its stationary phase; this ¶-endotoxin is active against dipteran insects and has great potential for mosquito borne disease control. Here, we report the first theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of a Cry11 toxin. The tridimensional structure of the Cry11Bb toxin was obtained by homology modelling on the structures of the Cry1Aa and Cry3Aa toxins. In this work we give a brief description of our model and hypothesize the residues of the Cry11Bb toxin that could be important in receptor recognition and pore formation. This model will serve as a starting point for the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to the improvement of toxicity, and to provide a new tool for the elucidation of the mechanism of action of these mosquitocidal proteins.

Population structure of the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon, based on mitochondrial DNA

Anopheles darlingi is the most important Brazilian malaria vector, with a widespread distribution in the Amazon forest. Effective strategies for vector control could be better developed through knowledge of its genetic structure and gene flow among populations, to assess the vector diversity and competence in transmitting Plasmodium. The aim of this study was to assess the genetic diversity of An. darlingi collected at four locations in Porto Velho, by sequencing a fragment of the ND4 mitochondrial gene. From 218 individual mosquitoes, we obtained 20 different haplotypes with a diversity index of 0.756, equivalent to that found in other neotropical anophelines. The analysis did not demonstrate significant population structure. However, haplotype diversity within some populations seems to be over-represented, suggesting the presence of sub-populations, but the presence of highly represented haplotypes complicates this analysis. There was no clear correlation among genetic and geographical distance and there were differences in relation to seasonality, which is important for malarial epidemiology.

Trypanosoma cruzi: ancestral genomes and population structure

Although the genome of Trypanosoma cruzi has been completely sequenced, little is known about its population structure and evolution. Since 1999, two major evolutionary lineages presenting distinct epidemiological characteristics have been recognised: T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II. We describe new and important aspects of the population structure of the parasite, and unequivocally characterise a third ancestral lineage that we propose to name T. cruzi III. Through a careful analysis of haplotypes (blocks of genes that are stably transmitted from generation to generation of the parasite), we inferred at least two hybridisation events between the parental lineages T. cruzi II and T. cruzi III. The strain CL Brener, whose genome was sequenced, is one such hybrid. Based on these results, we propose a simple evolutionary model based on three ancestral genomes, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and T. cruzi III. At least two hybridisation events produced evolutionarily viable progeny, and T. cruzi III was the cytoplasmic donor for the resulting offspring (as identified by the mitochondrial clade of the hybrid strains) in both events. This model should be useful to inform evolutionary and pathogenetic hypotheses regarding T. cruzi.

Structure-based drug design studies of the interactions ofent-kaurane diterpenes derived from Wedelia paludosa with the Plasmodium falciparumsarco/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase PfATP6

Malaria is responsible for more deaths around the world than any other parasitic disease. Due to the emergence of strains that are resistant to the current chemotherapeutic antimalarial arsenal, the search for new antimalarial drugs remains urgent though hampered by a lack of knowledge regarding the molecular mechanisms of artemisinin resistance. Semisynthetic compounds derived from diterpenes from the medicinal plant Wedelia paludosawere tested in silico against the Plasmodium falciparumCa2+-ATPase, PfATP6. This protein was constructed by comparative modelling using the three-dimensional structure of a homologous protein, 1IWO, as a scaffold. Compound 21 showed the best docking scores, indicating a better interaction with PfATP6 than that of thapsigargin, the natural inhibitor. Inhibition of PfATP6 by diterpene compounds could promote a change in calcium homeostasis, leading to parasite death. These data suggest PfATP6 as a potential target for the antimalarial ent-kaurane diterpenes.

Synthesis, structure and physicochemical properties of zinc and copper complexes based on sulfonamides containing 8-aminoquinoline ligands

Sulfonamides obtained by reaction of 8-aminoquinoline with 4-nitrobenzenesulfonylchloride and 2,4,6-triisopropylbenzenesulfonyl chloride were used to synthesize coordination compounds with CuII and ZnII with a ML2 composition. Determination of the crystal structures of the resulting zinc and copper complexes by X-ray diffraction show a distorted tetrahedral environment for the [Cu(qnbsa)2], [Cu(qibsa)2] and [Zn(qibsa)2] complexes in which the sulfonamide group acts as a bidentate ligand through the nitrogen atoms from the sulfonamidate and quinoline groups. The complex [Zn(qnbsa)2] crystallizes with a water molecule from the solvent and the Zn is five-coordinated and shows a bipyramidal-trigonal geometry. The electrochemical and electronic spectroscopy properties of the copper complexes are also discussed.

Probing the (empirical) quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum) shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-)quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u) was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z) shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z) ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

Modulating the electronic structure of amino acids: interaction of model lewis acids with anthranilic acid

On the basis of theoretical B3LYP calculations, Yáñez and co-workers (J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2012, 8, 2293) illustrated that beryllium ions are capable of significantly modulating (changing) the electronic structures of imidazole. In this computational organic chemistry study, the interaction of this β-amino acid and five model Lewis acids (BeF1+, Be2+, AlF2(1+), AlF2+, and Al3+) were investigated. Several aspects were addressed: natural bond orbitals, including second order perturbation analysis of intra-molecular charge delocalization and the natural population analysis atomic charges; molecular geometries; selected infrared stretching frequencies (C-N, C-O, and N-H), and selected ¹H-NMR chemical shifts. The data illustrate that this interaction can weaken the H-O bond and goes beyond strengthening the intra-molecular hydrogen bond (N...H-O) to cause a spontaneous transfer of the proton to the nitrogen atom in five cases generating zwitterion structures. Many new features are observed. Most importantly, the zwitterion structures include a stabilizing hydrogen bond (N-H...O) that varies in relative strength according to the Lewis acid. These findings explain the experimental observations of α-amino acids (for example: J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2001, 123, 3577) and are the first reported fundamental electronic structure characterization of β-amino acids in zwitterion form.

PREDICTING THE BOILING POINT OF PCDD/Fs BY THE QSPR METHOD BASED ON THE MOLECULAR DISTANCE-EDGE VECTOR INDEX

The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) for the boiling point (Tb) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) was investigated. The molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV) index was used as the structural descriptor. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb was modeled by using multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), respectively. Leave-one-out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction performance of the models developed. For the MLR method, the prediction root mean square relative error (RMSRE) of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.77 and 1.23, respectively. For the ANN method, the prediction RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.65 and 1.16, respectively. A quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb of PCDD/Fs was demonstrated. Both MLR and ANN are practicable for modeling this relationship. The MLR model and ANN model developed can be used to predict the Tb of PCDD/Fs. Thus, the Tb of each PCDD/F was predicted by the developed models.

Development of a weather-based model for Botrytis leaf blight of onion

ABSTRACT In the present study, onion plants were tested under controlled conditions for the development of a climate model based on the influence of temperature (10, 15, 20 and 25°C) and leaf wetness duration (6, 12, 24 and 48 hours) on the severity of Botrytis leaf blight of onion caused by Botrytis squamosa. The relative lesion density was influenced by temperature and leaf wetness duration (P <0.05). The disease was most severe at 20°C. Data were subjected to nonlinear regression analysis. Beta generalized function was used to adjust severity and temperature data, while a logistic function was chosen to represent the effect of leaf wetness on the severity of Botrytis leaf blight. The response surface obtained by the product of two functions was expressed as ES = 0.008192 * (((x-5)1.01089) * ((30-x)1.19052)) * (0.33859/(1+3.77989 * exp (-0.10923*y))), where ES represents the estimated severity value (0.1); x, the temperature (°C); and y, the leaf wetness (in hours). This climate model should be validated under field conditions to verify its use as a computational system for the forecasting of Botrytis leaf blight in onion.

Influence of stiffness in bolted connections in wooden plane structure of truss type

Trusses are structural systems commonly used in projects, being employed mainly in roof structures, present in most rural buildings. The design of trusses, as well as other structural systems, requires the determination of displacements, strains and stresses. However, the project is developed from an ideal model of calculation, considering free rotation between the elements of a connection. This paper presents a computer program for the analysis of bidimensional wooden trusses with connections formed with two screws per node. The formulation is based on the flexibility method, taking into account the influence of the effect of semi-rigid connections formed by two screws. An example of a structure is presented and analyzed by the program developed here, highlighting the importance of behavior analysis on semi-rigid connections.