Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

B and Delta hepatitis virus infection in a population of West Africa

Among the 424 serum samples examined, the prevalence of hepatitis virus infection turned out to be 89.6%, with 15.6% of HBsAg positivity. Some of the samples belonged to an afferent population and some other to workers of a West Africa rural hospital (Pop. Rep. of Benin). 27.3% of the positive subjects presented active replication of the virus, shown by the presence of HBeAg. Among the HBcAb positive subjects the anti-delta antibodies showed a positivity frequency of 19.7%. HBsAg presence in 15% of pregnant women suggested the importance of HBV mother-foetal transmission in the district. The examined results can be compared with those obtained in other African areas, with similar socio-economic conditions.

Diphtheria remains a threat to health in the developing world: an overview

Changes in the epidemiology of diphtheria are occurring worldwide. A large proportion of adults in many industrialized and developing countries are now susceptible to diphtheria. Vaccine-induced immunity wanes over time unless periodic booster is given or exposure to toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae occurs. Immunity gap in adults coupled with large numbers of susceptible children creates the potential for new extensive epidemics. Epidemic emergencies may not be long in coming in countries experiencing rapid industrialization or undergoing sociopolitical instability where many of the factors thought to be important in producing epidemic such as mass population movements and difficult hygienic and economic conditions are present. The continuous circulation of toxigenic C. diphtheriae emphasizes the need to be aware of epidemiological features, clinical signs, and symptoms of diphtheria in vaccine era so that cases can be promptly diagnosed and treated, and further public health measures can be taken to contain this serious disease. This overview focused on worldwide data obtained from diphtheria with particular emphasis to main factors leading to recent epidemics, new clinical forms of C. diphtheriae infections, expression of virulence factors, other than toxin production, control strategies, and laboratory diagnosis procedures.

The availability of full match sibling donors and feasibility of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in Brazil

The feasibility of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (alloBMT) in a developing country has not yet been demonstrated. Many adverse factors including social and economic limitations may reduce the overall results of this complex and expensive procedure. Our objective was to characterize the most important clinical, social and economic features of candidates for transplantation and their potential donors as well as the influence of these factors on overall survival in a retrospective and exploratory analysis at a university hospital. From July 1993 to July 2001, candidates for BMT were referred to the Bone Marrow Transplantation Unit by Hematology and Oncology Centers from several regions of Brazil. A total of 1138 patients were referred to us as candidates for alloBMT. Median age was 25 years (range: 2 months-60 years), 684 (60.1%) were males and 454 (39.9%) were females. The clinical indications were severe aplastic anemia and hematological malignancies. From the total of 1138 patients, 923 had HLA-typing; 497/923 (53.8%) candidates had full match donors; 352/1138 (30.8%) were eligible for alloBMT. Only 235 of 352 (66.7%) were transplanted. Schooling was 1st to 8th grade for 123/235 (52.3%); monthly family income ranged from US$60 (7%) to more than US$400 (36%). Overall survival for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia, severe aplastic anemia and acute myeloid leukemia was 58, 60 and 30%, respectively. Thus, overall survival rates for the most frequent hematological diseases were similar to those reported in the International Registry, except for acute myeloid leukemia. This descriptive and exploratory analysis suggests the feasibility of alloBMT in a developing country like Brazil.

Still the century of government savings banks? The Caixa Econômica Federal

This article explores general concerns about government banking, social inclusion, and democracy through case study of the Brazilian federal government savings bank (Caixa Econômica Federal). Review of government savings banks in Brazilian history suggests that these institutions have been at the center of domestic political economy, expanding and contracting under a variety of political regimes and economic conditions. Since capitalization to meet central bank and Basel Accord guidelines in 2001, the Caixa has attempted to modernize, continue to serve as agent for government policies, and expand both popular credit and savings and investment banking activities.

Um estudo sobre a vitimização para a cidade de São Paulo

A study about the victimization in the city of São Paulo. This paper applies the crime economics theory to Brazilian data. Following Becker (1968), Hinderlang et al. (1978) and Cohen et al. (1981), we tested the microeconomic factors that influence crime and victimization. For this end, the two waves of research of victimization of the Instituto Futuro Brasil, 2003 and 2008, were used in an effort to identify the determinants of victimization and police notification, using probit model. The main results suggest the factors which impact significantly the probability of victimization are the demographic characteristics, economic conditions and personal habits. The models of "life style" and "opportunity" seem to have good performance.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Enteroparasitosis and their ethnographic relationship to food handlers in a tourist and economic center in Paraná, Southern Brazil

This study reports on the occurrence of enteroparasites based on data from an ethnographic study of food handlers in the city of Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil. Fecal material from 343 food handlers of both sexes, between 14 and 75 years of age, was analyzed using Lutz, modified Ritchie and Ziehl-Neelsen techniques. Ethnographic relationships were investigated by means of specific questionnaires. Positive fecal samples were found for 131 (38.2%) handlers. Endolimax nana (67.9%) was the predominant species, followed by Entamoeba coli (35.9%), Blastocystis hominis (28.2%), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (10.1%) and Giardia duodenalis (8.4%). Protozoan infections were more common than helminth infections (p = 0.00). The positive results for some parasites were associated with the male sex, professional category, and the performance of other activities (p < 0.05). The high overall occurrence of enteroparasites found indicates improper hygiene and sanitation conditions. Effective educational measures should be implemented to prevent the transfer of pathogenic organisms to food via handling.

Basic sanitation, socioeconomic conditions, and degree of risk for the presence and maintenance of malaria in a low-transmission area in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:This study aimed to evaluate basic sanitation and socioeconomic indicators, reported cases of malaria, and risk of contracting malaria in the Ananindeua municipality, State of Pará.METHODS:Data on basic sanitation and socioeconomic dimensions were taken from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics [ Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)] 2010 census. Epidemiological malaria information was taken from the Epidemiological Malaria Surveillance Information System [ Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica de Malária (SIVEP/Malaria)], between 2003 and 2013 of the Ministry of Health and from the SIVEP/Malaria forms of the municipality's Endemic Diseases Unit for 2,013 cases.RESULTS:Our data do not confirm the correlation among indicators of basic sanitation, socioeconomic conditions, and water supply with malaria cases. Of the 1,557 cases evaluated, most were caused by Plasmodium vivax , with rare cases of Plasmodium falciparum and mixed infections. There were 756 notifications in 2003. The number of reported cases was sharply reduced between 2006 and 2012, but a 142-case outbreak occurred in 2013. Ananindeua municipality's Annual Parasite Index indicated low risk in 2003 and no risk in other years, and the 2,013 cases were predominantly male individuals aged ≥40 years.CONCLUSIONS:Our data confirm the non-endemicity of malaria in the Ananindeua municipality, as the Annual Parasite Indices described for the years 2004-2013 classify it as a risk-free area. However, the 2013 outbreak indicates the need to strengthen prevention, surveillance, and control activities to reduce the risk of new outbreaks and consequent economic and social impacts on the population.