Handling random errors and biases in methods used for short-term dietary assessment

Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.

Observations on the Brazilian presidency, democracy, and governance

This article presents the first results of research on the organization and administration of the Brazilian presidency and problems of democratic governance in Brazil. Biases of Euro-centrism in current views of presidentialism, democracy, governance, and representation are criticized and new comparative analysis of political experiences in the Americas called for. Initial analysis of the Brazilian presidency reveals a unique combination of executive-led electoral representation and muddling through governance since the transition from military rule.

Focusing illusion in satisfaction with life among college students living in Brazil

Literature shows that there are significant associations between health and happiness. Various countries are considering, contemplating or formally incorporating the happiness variable into their public health policies. Moreover, the private sector has shown interest in the topic. Based on that This article examines the biases in the perception of satisfaction with life among young adults in two Brazilian cities. The study explores the associations between aspects of life and perception of happiness because public policies associated with happiness require an improved understanding of the subjectivity of the sense of well-being. A survey conducted among 368 college students enabled analysis through Multivariate Analysis of Covariance (MANCOVA) and linear regression. The results suggest that, although there were no significant differences in general satisfaction with life between the two cities, there were indications of focusing illusion in the perception of happiness caused by expectations arising from the feeling of personal insecurity in a metropolis.

Readmission of older patients after hospital discharge for hip fracture: a multilevel approach

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify individual and hospital characteristics associated with the risk of readmission in older inpatients for proximal femoral fracture in the period of 90 days after discharge. METHODS Deaths and readmissions were obtained by a linkage of databases of the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System and the System of Information on Mortality of the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2008 to 2011. The population of 3,405 individuals aged 60 or older, with non-elective hospitalization for proximal femoral fracture was followed for 90 days after discharge. Cox multilevel model was used for discharge time until readmission, and the characteristics of the patients were used on the first level and the characteristics of the hospitals on the second level. RESULTS The risk of readmission was higher for men (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95%CI 1.08–1.73), individuals more than 79 years old (HR = 1.45; 95%CI 1.06–1.98), patients who were hospitalized for more than two weeks (HR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.06-1.67), and for those who underwent arthroplasty when compared with the ones who underwent osteosynthesis (HR = 0.57; 95%CI 0.41–0.79). Besides, patients admitted to state hospitals had lower risk for readmission when compared with inpatients in municipal (HR = 1.71; 95%CI 1.09–2.68) and federal hospitals (HR = 1.81; 95%CI 1.00–3.27). The random effect of the hospitals in the adjusted model remained statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Hospitals have complex structures that reflect in the quality of care. Thus, we propose that future studies may include these complexities and the severity of the patients in the analysis of the data, also considering the correlation between readmission and mortality to reduce biases.

Interrupting Chagas disease transmission in Venezuela

The interruption of vectorial transmission of Chagas disease in Venezuela is attributed to the combined effects of ongoing entomoepidemiological surveillance, ongoing house spraying with residual insecticides and the concurrent building and modification of rural houses in endemic areas during almost five decades. The original endemic areas which totaled 750,000 km², have been reduced to 365,000 km². During 1958-1968, initial entomological evaluations carried out showed that the house infestation index ranged between 60-80%, the house infection index at 8-11% and a house density index of 30-50 triatomine bugs per house. By 1990-98, these indexes were further reduced to 1.6-4.0%, 0.01-0.6% and 3-4 bugs per house respectively. The overall rural population seroprevalence has declined from 44.5% (95% C.I.: 43.4-45.3%) to 9.2% (95% C.I.: 9.0-9.4%) for successive grouped periods from 1958 to 1998. The annual blood donor prevalence is firmly established below 1%. The population at risk of infection has been estimated to be less than four million. Given that prevalence rates are stable and appropriate for public health programmes, consideration has been given to potential biases that may distort results such as: a) geographical differences in illness or longevity of patients; b) variations in levels of ascertainment; c) variations in diagnostic criteria; and d) variations in population structure, mainly due to appreciable population migration. The endemic areas with continuous transmission are now mainly confined to piedmonts, as well as patchy foci in higher mountainous ranges, where the exclusive vector is Rhodnius prolixus. There is also an unstable area, of which landscapes are made up of grasslands with scattered broad-leaved evergreen trees and costal plains, where transmission is very low and occasional outbreaks are reported.

Artificial nest predation rates vary depending on visibility in the eastern Brazilian Amazon

Observational and experimental studies have shown that increased concealment of bird nests reduces nest predation rates. The objective of the present study was to evaluate differences in predation rates between two experimental manipulations of artificial ground nests (i.e., clearing an area around the artificial nest or leaving it as natural as possible), and test whether environmental variables also affected nest predation in an undisturbed area of Amazonian forest in eastern Brazil. A generalized linear model was used to examine the influence of five variables (manipulation type, perpendicular distance from the main trail, total basal area of trees surrounding the nest site, understorey density, and liana quantity) on nest predation rates. Model results, showed that manipulation type was the only variable that significantly affected nest predation rates. Thus, to avoid systematic biases, the influence of nest site manipulation must be taken into consideration when conducting experiments with artificial nests.

Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

Is human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome decreasing among Brazilian injection drug users? Recent findings and how to interpret them

We briefly review findings from Brazilian settings where the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) seems to be decreasing, highlighting recent findings from Rio de Janeiro and discussing methodological alternatives. Former analyses using serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion have shown that HIV incidence has been low in IDUs recruited by two different surveys carried out in Rio, where low injection frequencies and infection rates have been found among new injectors. The proportion of AIDS cases among IDUs in Rio has been fairly modest, compared to São Paulo and especially to the southernmost states. Notwithstanding, the interpretation of findings from serial surveys constitutes a challenge, magnified in the assessment of HIV spread among IDUs due to the dynamic nature of the drug scenes and limitations of sampling strategies targeting hard-to-reach populations. Assessment of epidemic trends may profit from the triangulation of data, but cannot avert biases associated with sampling errors. Efforts should be made to triangulate data from different sources, besides exploring specific studies from different perspectives. In an attempt to further assess the observed trends, we carried out original analyses using data from Brazilian AIDS databank.

Schistosomal glomerulopathy and changes in the distribution of histological patterns of glomerular diseases in Bahia, Brazil

Distinct patterns of glomerular lesions, including membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, are associated with infection by Schistosoma mansoni or Schistosoma japonicum. Evidence suggests that immune complex deposition is the main mechanism underlying the different forms of schistosomal glomerulonephritis and that immune complex deposition may be intensified by portal hypertension. The relationship between focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and schistosomiasis remains poorly understood. A clinicopathologic classification of schistosomal glomerulopathies was proposed in 1992 by the African Association of Nephrology. In Brazil, mass treatment with oral medications has led to a decrease in the occurrence of schistosomal glomerulopathy. In a survey of renal biopsies performed in Salvador, Brazil, from 2003-2009, only 24 (4%) patients were identified as positive for S. mansoni infection. Among these patients, only one had the hepatosplenic form of the disease. Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis was found in seven patients and membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis was found in four patients. Although retrospective studies on the prevalence of renal diseases based on kidney biopsies may be influenced by many patient selection biases, a change in the distribution of glomerulopathies associated with nephrotic syndrome was observed along with a decline in the occurrence of severe forms of schistosomiasis.

Balancing guava nutrition with liming and fertilization

Guava response to liming and fertilization can be monitored by tissue testing. Tissue nutrient signature is often diagnosed against nutrient concentration standards. However, this approach has been criticized for not considering nutrient interactions and to generate numerical biases as a result of data redundancy, scale dependency and non-normal distribution. Techniques of compositional data analysis can control those biases by balancing groups of nutrients, such as those involved in liming and fertilization. The sequentially arranged and orthonormal isometric log ratios (ilr) or balances avoid numerical bias inherent to compositional data. The objectives were to relate tissue nutrient balances with the production of "Paluma" guava orchards differentially limed and fertilized, and to adjust the current patterns of nutrient balance with the range of more productive guava trees. It was conducted one experiment of 7-yr of liming and three experiments of 3-yr with N, P and K trials in 'Paluma' orchards on an Oxisol. Plant N, P, K, Ca and Mg were monitored yearly. It was selected the [N, P, K | Ca, Mg], [N, P | K], [N | P] and [Ca | Mg] balances to set apart the effects of liming (Ca-Mg) and fertilizers (N-K) on macronutrient balances. Liming largely influenced nutrient balances of guava in the Oxisol while fertilization was less influential. The large range of guava yields and nutrient balances allowed defining balance ranges and comparing them with the critical ranges of nutrient concentration values currently used in Brazil and combined into ilr coordinates.

Nutrient signature of Quebec (Canada) cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.)

Fertilizer recommendations for cranberry crops are guided by plant and soil tests. However, critical tissue concentration ranges used for diagnostic purposes are inherently biased by nutrient interactions and physiological age. Compositional data analysis using isometric log ratios (ilr) of nutrients as well as time detrending can avoid numerical biases. The objective was to derive unbiased nutrient signature standards for cranberry in Quebec and compare those standards to literature data. Field trials were conducted during 3 consecutive years with varying P treatments at six commercial sites in Quebec. Leaf tissues were analyzed for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, B, Cu, Zn, Mn and Fe. The analytical results were transformed into ilr nutrient balances of parts and groups of parts. High-yield reference ilr values were computed for cranberry yielding greater than 35 Mg ha-1. Many cranberry fields appeared to be over-supplied with K and either under-supplied with Mn or over-supplied with Fe as shown by their imbalanced [K | Ca, Mg] and [Mn | Fe] ratios. Nutrient concentration ranges from Maine and Wisconsin, USA, were combined into ilr values to generate ranges of balances. It was found that these nutrient ranges were much too broad for application in Quebec or outside the Quebec ranges for the [Ca | Mg] and the [Mn | Fe] balances, that were lower compared to those of high yielding cranberry crops in Quebec.

Cytokines as determinants of disease and disease interactions

The immune response to pathogens results in both host resistance and immunopathology. Cytokines and in particular those lymphokines produced by Th1 and Th2 cells play a key role in determining the balance between these two immunologic outcomes. Recent data suggest that interleukin-10, a product of both Th2 cells and macrophages, protects the host against excessive immunopathology. The cytokine environment generated by different pathogens may also influence the course and outcome of infections with unrelated organisms. This relationship may be particularly important in the case of HIV-1 where prior Th1 or Th2 biases established by helminth or intracellular infections may influence either initial viral susceptibility or drive progression to AIDS through immune activation

Validation of the Beck Depression Inventory for a Portuguese-speaking Chinese community in Brazil

The objective of the present study was to investigate the psychometric properties and cross-cultural validity of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) among ethnic Chinese living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The study was conducted on 208 community individuals. Reliability and discriminant analysis were used to test the psychometric properties and validity of the BDI. Principal component analysis was performed to assess the BDI's factor structure for the total sample and by gender. The mean BDI score was lower (6.74, SD = 5.98) than observed in Western counterparts and showed no gender difference, good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.82), and high discrimination of depressive symptoms (75-100%). Factor analysis extracted two factors for the total sample and each gender: cognitive-affective dimension and somatic dimension. We conclude that depressive symptoms can be reliably assessed by the BDI in the Brazilian Chinese population, with a validity comparable to that for international studies. Indeed, cultural and measurement biases might have influenced the response of Chinese subjects.

Circadian cardiac autonomic function in perinatally HIV-infected preschool children

The 24-h heart rate variability and QT-interval adaptation was investigated in perinatally HIV-infected preschool children classified according to immunological status in order to assess autonomic function at early stages of infection. Thirty-five perinatally HIV-infected and clinically stable children (4.8 ± 0.3 years) were enrolled after approval of the study by the University Hospital Pedro Ernesto Ethics Committee and written informed parental consent was obtained. The children were classified according to peripheral CD4+ count (cells/µL) as follows: group 1, N = 11 (≥1000); group 2, N = 7 (≥500 and <1000); group 3, N = 17 (<500). Left ventricular ejection fraction (>55%), 24-h RR interval variability (RRV) indexes (NN, SDANN, SDNN index, r-MSSD) and 24-h QT and Bazett-corrected QT (QTc) were determined, and groups were matched for age, body surface area, and left ventricular ejection fraction, reducing biases in RRV. The peak differences (∆) between the highest and lowest RRV and QT indexes were extracted from nocturnal (1 am-6 am) and daytime (1 pm-6 pm) hourly assessed segments, respectively. Pearson’s correlation (r) and Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA were used to compare groups. CD4+ count correlated positively with ∆NN (r = 0.45; P = 0.003). There were no significant differences in daytime NN among groups. Nighttime SDNN index (P = 0.01), nighttime r-MSSD (P = 0.003), ∆NN (P = 0.01), ∆SDNN index (P = 0.03) and ∆r-MSSD (P = 0.004) were significantly lower in group 3 than in the other groups. Expected nighttime QTc-interval lengthening was not observed in all groups. In perinatally HIV-infected preschool children with preserved left ventricular systolic function, parasympathetic-mediated autonomic dysfunction parallels immune status, impairing both RRV and circadian QTc interval adaptation.

Freedom of choice and bounded rationality: a brief appraisal of behavioral economists' plea for light paternalism

Behavioral economics has addressed interesting positive and normative questions underlying the standard rational choice theory. More recently, it suggests that, in a real world of boundedly rational agents, economists could help people to improve the quality of their choices without any harm to autonomy and freedom of choice. This paper aims to scrutinize available arguments for and against current proposals of light paternalistic interventions mainly in the domain of intertemporal choice. It argues that incorporating the notion of bounded rationality in economic analysis and empirical findings of cognitive biases and self-control problems cannot make an indisputable case for paternalism.