75 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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The objective of the study was to describe seasonality of hospitalizations for heart failure in tropical climate as it has been described in cold climates. Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving-Average model was applied to time-series data of heart failure hospitalizations between 1996 and 2004 in Niteroi (Southeastern Brazil), collected from the Brazilian National Health Service Database. The standard seasonal variation was obtained by means of moving-average filtering and averaging data. The lowest and the highest annual hospital admissions were 507 (1997) and 849 (2002), respectively; the lowest and the highest monthly rates were 419 (December) and 681 (October), respectively. Peak admission rates were seen during the fall and winter. Although weak, the seasonality observed indicates that slight variations result in increased hospitalizations for heart failure.

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This paper dis cusses the fitting of a Cobb-Doug las response curve Yi = αXβi, with additive error, Yi = αXβi + e i, instead of the usual multiplicative error Yi = αXβi (1 + e i). The estimation of the parameters A and B is discussed. An example is given with use of both types of error.

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The relationship between autoimmunity and malaria is not well understood. To determine whether autoimmune responses have a protective role during malaria, we studied the pattern of reactivity to plasmodial antigens of sera from 93 patients with 14 different autoimmune diseases (AID) who were not previously exposed to malaria. Sera from patients with 13 different AID reacted against Plasmodium falciparum by indirect fluorescent antibody test with frequencies varying from 33-100%. In addition, sera from 37 AID patients were tested for reactivity against Plasmodium yoelii 17XNL and the asexual blood stage forms of three different P. falciparum strains. In general, the frequency of reactive sera was higher against young trophozoites than schizonts (p < 0.05 for 2 strains), indicating that the antigenic determinants targeted by the tested AID sera might be more highly expressed by the former stage. The ability of monoclonal auto-antibodies (auto-Ab) to inhibit P. falciparum growth in vitro was also tested. Thirteen of the 18 monoclonal auto-Ab tested (72%), but none of the control monoclonal antibodies, inhibited parasite growth, in some cases by greater than 40%. We conclude that autoimmune responses mediated by auto-Ab may present anti-plasmodial activity.

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The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

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Policosanol is a mixture of higher aliphatic alcohols purified from sugar cane wax, with cholesterol-lowering effects demonstrable in experimental models and in patients with type II hypercholesterolemia. The protective effects of policosanol on atherosclerotic lesions experimentally induced by lipofundin in rabbits and rats and spontaneously developed in stumptail monkeys have been described. The present study was conducted to determine whether policosanol administered orally to rabbits with exogenous hypercholesterolemia also protects against the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Male New Zealand rabbits weighing 1.5 to 2 kg were randomly divided into three experimental groups which received 25 or 200 mg/kg policosanol (N = 7) orally for 60 days with acacia gum as vehicle or acacia gum alone (control group, N = 9). All animals received a cholesterol-rich diet (0.5%) during the entire period. Control animals developed marked hypercholesterolemia, macroscopic lesions and arterial intimal thickening. Intima thickness was significantly less (32.5 ± 7 and 25.4 ± 4 µm) in hypercholesterolemic rabbits treated with policosanol than in controls (57.6 ± 9 µm). In most policosanol-treated animals, atherosclerotic lesions were not present, and in others, thickness of fatty streaks had less foam cell layers than in controls. We conclude that policosanol has a protective effect on the atherosclerotic lesions occurring in this experimental model.

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In order to better understand the biology of Centrocestus formosanus in a definitive host model, mice of Swiss and AKR/J strains were experimentally infected with 100 metacercariae of the parasite. Fourteen days post-infection, the rodents were killed and adult trematodes were recovered from the small intestine. The percentage of parasite recovery from AKR/J mice (11.4%) was significantly higher than that from Swiss mice (5.3%). Moreover, trematodes recovered from the AKR/J strain were more developed and had greater fecundity. Peculiarities concerning the mice’s immune system could explain the difference in susceptibility and in worm development seen in the present study. The data obtained confirm that mice are susceptible to infection with C. formosanus and indicate that the AKR/J strain provides a more favorable environment for parasite development.

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INTRODUCTION: In the jurisdiction of Brasília, Brazil, significant reductions in mortality rates and lethality resulting from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) were observed shortly after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In recent years, however, the decline of these rates has not been as significant. Non-adherence to treatment and delayed diagnosis appear to be the main factors that increase the risk of death from AIDS. Behavioral, socioeconomic, and biological factors could also be associated with increased risk of death due to AIDS. This study aimed to identify which of these factors were associated with deaths from AIDS in Brasília. METHODS: A case-control study was undertaken using the data recorded in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases. Cases consisted of AIDS deaths occurring in 2007, residing in Brasília, and over 12 years of age. Controls consisted of AIDS patients who did not die until December 31 2007, also residing in Brasília, and over 12 years of age. For each group, frequency and proportion tables for the variables were prepared. The statistical association of each factor in isolation with the occurrence of the deaths was verified through a model of multivariate analysis using logistic regression. RESULTS: The factors that were associated with an increased risk of death were intravenous drug use, age 50 years or more, and residing in a region whose residents have low per capita income. CONCLUSIONS: We identified factors associated with death due to AIDS that can guide health planning.

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Introduction Hematophagous Desmodus rotundus bats play an important role in the rabies lifecycle. This study describes the hematological profile of these bats before and after experimental infection with rabies virus. Methods Cells counts were performed in a Neubauer chamber. Results The average values of erythrocytes and leucocytes counts in blood before experimental infections were 9.97 × 106mm3 and 4.80 × 103mm3, respectively. Neutrophils represented 69.9% of white blood cells and the lymphocytes represented 26.9%. Following the experimental infections, the average numbers of erythrocytes and leucocytes was 9.43 × 106mm3 and 3.98 × 103mm3, respectively. Neutrophils represented 40% of white blood cells and the lymphocytes represented 59%. Conclusions The hematological profile given in this study can serve as reference values for D. rotundus bats.

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Background:Several studies have been attempting to ascertain the risks of Sleep Apnea Syndrome (SAS) and its morbidity and mortality.Objective:The main objective was to verify whether SAS increases the risk of death; the secondary objective was to evaluate its morbidity in relation to cardiovascular disease and the number of days hospitalized.Methods:A systematic review and a meta-analysis were performed of the published literature. The research focused on studies comparing the number of deaths in patients with untreated SAS and in patients with non-SAS.Results:The meta-analysis was based on 13 articles, corresponding to a total of 13394 participants divided into two groups (non-SAS = 6631; SAS = 6763). The meta-analysis revealed a clear association of SAS with the occurrence of fatal events, where the presence of SAS corresponded to a 61% higher risk of total mortality (OR=1.61; CI: 1.43 - 1.81; p < 0.00001), while the risk of death from cardiac causes was 2.52 times higher in these patients (OR = 2.52; IC: 1.80 - 3.52; p < 0.00001). Similar results were obtained for mortality from other causes (OR = 1.68; CI: 1.08 - 2.61; p = 0.02). Resembling results were obtained in the remaining outcomes: non-fatal cardiovascular events were higher in the SAS group (OR = 2.46; IC: 1.80 - 3.36; p < 0.00001), the average number of days hospitalized was also higher in the SAS group (IV = 18.09; IC: 13.34 - 22.84; p < 0.00001).Conclusion:The results show that untreated SAS significantly increases the risk of death, cardiovascular events and the average number of days hospitalized.

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Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.

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Megazol, nifurtimox, benznidazol and allopurinol were investigated, by light and electron µscopy, for their action on T. cruzi. Both the direct effect upon amastigote and trypomastigote forms and the effect upon the interaction of heart muscle cells (HMC) with bloodstream trypomastigotes were studied. The proliferation of amastigotes in Warren medium was inhibited in a dose-dependent manner by megazol, nifurtimox and benznidazol. Treatment of amastigotes (25-50 µM/24 h) and trypomastigotes (25 µM/24h) led to several ultrastructural alterations in the parasites. These three drugs also had a potent effect on the treatment of infected heart muscle cells when added at the beginning of the interaction or after one or three days of infection. The interiorized parasites showed a similar pattern of ultrastructural alterations as observed by the direct effect on the amastigotes. The primary heart muscle cell culture proved to be a suitable model for the study of drugs on intracellular parasites. Likewise, the amastigote proliferation in axenic medium was shown to be an adequate assay for an initial trial of drugs. These parameters seem very reliable to us for a systematic investigation of the mechanism of action of new drugs.

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Megazol (7) is a 5-nitroimidazole that is highly active against Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma brucei, as well as drug-resistant forms of trypanosomiasis. Compound 7 is not used clinically due to its mutagenic and genotoxic properties, but has been largely used as a lead compound. Here, we compared the activity of 7 with its 4H-1,2,4-triazole bioisostere (8) in bloodstream forms of T. brucei and T. cruzi and evaluated their activation by T. brucei type I nitroreductase (TbNTR) enzyme. We also analysed the cytotoxic and genotoxic effects of these compounds in whole human blood using Comet and fluorescein diacetate/ethidium bromide assays. Although the only difference between 7 and 8 is the substitution of sulphur (in the thiadiazole in 7) for nitrogen (in the triazole in 8), the results indicated that 8 had poorer antiparasitic activity than 7 and was not genotoxic, whereas 7 presented this effect. The determination of Vmax indicated that although 8 was metabolised more rapidly than 7, it bounds to the TbNTR with better affinity, resulting in equivalent kcat/KM values. Docking assays of 7 and 8 performed within the active site of a homology model of the TbNTR indicating that 8 had greater affinity than 7.

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The comments related to the sustainability of knowledge management (KM) have shown signs that it possibly can be a discourse which determines a quick style, but otherwise have also allowed the building of a better understanding about the limits and weaknesses of the knowlege management. In addition to the criticisms, the conceptual bases of knowledge management have been undermined by a contradictory combination of paradigms; there are also contradictions between the theoretical perspective jubjacent to the knwoledge management and its operationality. As a way of minimizing the possibility that the knowledge management may be turned into an umbrella concept and fail, it is suggested that its approaches embody a more interpretative perspective, taking up the role of an instrument which enables and facilitates the processes and practices in building up knowledge and information, enhancing their focus on the support to the establishment of human competences in order to deal intelligently with the present overcharge of information resources and need for building up information in the organizations.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the genes IGF1 (AF_017143.1:g.198C>T), MSTN (AF_320998.1:g.433C>A), MYOD1 (NC_007313:g.1274A>G) and MYF5 (NC_007303:g.1911A>G) on carcass and meat traits in Nelore (Bos indicus) and Nelore x B. taurus. A total of 300 animals were genotyped and phenotyped for rib eye area (REA), backfat thickness (BT), intramuscular fat (IF), shear force (SF) and myofibrillar fragmentation index (MFI). The effects of allele substitution for each SNP were estimated by regression of the evaluated phenotypes on the number of copies of a particular allele using the general linear model. The polymorphism at IGF1 was non-informative in Nelore animals. In crossbred animals, the IGF1 C allele was associated with greater REA. However, this relation was not significant after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. The A allele of the MSTN polymorphism was absent in Nelore cattle and was only found in two crossbred animals. The polymorphisms of MYOD1 and MYF5 were little informative in Nelore animals with G allele frequency of 0.097 and A allele frequency of 0.031, respectively. These markers show no association with the analyzed traits in the total sample of evaluated animals.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the quality and the production of biogas and biofertilizer obtained from biodigester supplied with pig feces in the initial, growing and finishing stages, fed with diets formulated based on corn or sorghum. Twenty bench biodigesters were used with hydraulic retention time of 30 days and daily loads that contained 4 to 6% of total solids (TS) and 3.6 to 5.2% of volatile solids (VS). In the effluent of the biodigesters, mean levels of TS were observed ranging between 1.6 and 2.0% and of VS between 1.2 and 1.6%. The mean reductions of TS were 57.7 to 64.7% and of VS from 61.7 to 69.0%, and there was only difference in the finishing phase, in which the major averages reductions were produced by the biodigesters supplied with feces from animals fed with diets based on corn. In biodigesters supplied with feces from animals in the initial and growing stages fed with diets based on corn, were observed higher average productions of biogas and the greatest average potentials of biogas production. The average potentials obtained were 0.033; 0.181; 0.685; 0.788 and 1.132 m³ per kg of affluent, manure, TS added, VS added and VS reduced, respectively. No differences were found on the average content of methane in the biogas between diets and stages. The average concentrations of nutrients N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu in the biodigester affluent and effluent, ranged between diets and stages.