O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Intimate partner violence after the diagnosis of sexually transmitted diseases

OBJECTIVE To assess the prevalence and factors associated with intimate partner violence after the diagnosis of sexually transmitted diseases.METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in 2012 and involved 221 individuals (40.3% male and 59.7% female) attended to at reference health care units for the treatment of sexually transmitted diseases. Data were collected using a questionnaire applied during interviews with each participant. A multivariate analysis with a logistic regression model was conducted using the stepwise technique. Only the variables with a p value < 0.05 were included in the adjusted analysis. The odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used as the measure of effect.RESULTS A total of 30.3% of the participants reported experiencing some type of violence (27.6%, psychological; 5.9%, physical; and 7.2%, sexual) after the diagnosis of sexually transmitted disease. In the multivariate analysis adjusted to assess intimate partner violence after the revelation of the diagnosis of sexually transmitted diseases, the following variables remained statistically significant: extramarital relations (OR = 3.72; 95%CI 1.91;7.26; p = 0.000), alcohol consumption by the partner (OR = 2.16; 95%CI 1.08;4.33; p = 0.026), history of violence prior to diagnosis (OR = 2.87; 95%CI 1.44;5.69; p = 0.003), and fear of disclosing the diagnosis to the partner (OR = 2.66; 95%CI 1.32;5.32; p = 0.006).CONCLUSIONS Individuals who had extramarital relations, experienced violence prior to the diagnosis of sexually transmitted disease, feared disclosing the diagnosis to the partner, and those whose partner consumed alcohol had an increased likelihood of suffering violence. The high prevalence of intimate partner violence suggests that this population is vulnerable and therefore intervention efforts should be directed to them. Referral health care services for the treatment of sexually transmitted diseases can be strategic places to identify and prevent intimate partner violence.

McCoy cell line as a possible model containing CD4+ receptors for the study of HIV-1 replication

Several studies have recently shown the use of recombinant rabies virus as potential vector-viral vaccine for HIV-1. The sequence homology between gp 120 and rabies virus glycoprotein has been reported. The McCoy cell line has therefore been used to show CD4+ or CD4+ like receptors. Samples of HIV-1 were isolated, when plasma of HIV-1 positive patients was inoculated in the McCoy cell line. The virus infection was then studied during successive virus passages. The proteins released in the extra cellular medium were checked for protein activity, by exposure to SDS Electrophoresis and blotting to nitro-cellulose filter, then reacting with sera of HIV positive and negative patients. Successive passages were performed, and showed viral replication, membrane permeabilization, the syncytium formation, and the cellular lysis (cytopathic effect). Flow cytometry analysis shows clear evidence that CD4+ receptors are present in this cell line, which enhances the likelihood of easy isolation and replication of HIV. The results observed allow the use of this cell line as a possible model for isolating HIV, as well as for carrying out studies of the dynamics of viral infection in several situations, including exposure to drugs in pharmacological studies, and possibly studies and analyses of the immune response in vaccine therapies.

Awareness of visceral leishmaniasis and its relationship to canine infection in riverside endemic areas in Northeastern Brazil

IntroductionAn awareness of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is necessary to encourage the population to participate in prevention and control in collaboration with more efficient, centrally organized health programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the awareness of the riverside population regarding VL and the association between awareness and the prevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL).MethodsIn total, 71 people living in riverside areas in the City of Mossoró in State of Rio Grande do Norte participated of the study, and 71 dogs were tested for CVL by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Association analysis of several variables related to knowledge of the riverside population regarding CVL positivity was performed, yielding odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), and significance was determined using chi-square (χ2) and Fisher's exact tests.ResultsAmong individuals whose dogs tested positive for CVL, 60% did not know the cure for CVL, and these subjects were three times more likely to have a dog test positive for CVL than those who were aware the cure for CVL. Knowledge of CVL cure was the only variable that remained in the logistic model after the successive removal of variables, with an adjusted OR of 3.11 (95%CI: 1.1-8,799; p=0.032).ConclusionsInsufficient awareness regarding VL in riverside areas with CVL-positive dogs was associated with increased rates of canine infection, which suggests that changes in habits and the adoption of attitudes and preventive practices may contribute to the control and prevention of this disease. This study reinforces the need to invest in better health education programs regarding VL.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Comparison between artificial neural networks and maximum likelihood classification in digital soil mapping

Soil surveys are the main source of spatial information on soils and have a range of different applications, mainly in agriculture. The continuity of this activity has however been severely compromised, mainly due to a lack of governmental funding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of two different classifiers (artificial neural networks and a maximum likelihood algorithm) in the prediction of soil classes in the northwest of the state of Rio de Janeiro. Terrain attributes such as elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature and compound topographic index (CTI) and indices of clay minerals, iron oxide and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from Landsat 7 ETM+ sensor imagery, were used as discriminating variables. The two classifiers were trained and validated for each soil class using 300 and 150 samples respectively, representing the characteristics of these classes in terms of the discriminating variables. According to the statistical tests, the accuracy of the classifier based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was greater than of the classic Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC). Comparing the results with 126 points of reference showed that the resulting ANN map (73.81 %) was superior to the MLC map (57.94 %). The main errors when using the two classifiers were caused by: a) the geological heterogeneity of the area coupled with problems related to the geological map; b) the depth of lithic contact and/or rock exposure, and c) problems with the environmental correlation model used due to the polygenetic nature of the soils. This study confirms that the use of terrain attributes together with remote sensing data by an ANN approach can be a tool to facilitate soil mapping in Brazil, primarily due to the availability of low-cost remote sensing data and the ease by which terrain attributes can be obtained.

Biometrical analysis and selection of tetraploid progenies of Panicum maximum using mixed model methods

The objectives of this work were to estimate the genetic and phenotypic parameters and to predict the genetic and genotypic values of the selection candidates obtained from intraspecific crosses in Panicum maximum as well as the performance of the hybrid progeny of the existing and projected crosses. Seventy-nine intraspecific hybrids obtained from artificial crosses among five apomictic and three sexual autotetraploid individuals were evaluated in a clonal test with two replications and ten plants per plot. Green matter yield, total and leaf dry matter yields and leaf percentage were evaluated in five cuts per year during three years. Genetic parameters were estimated and breeding and genotypic values were predicted using the restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction procedure (REML/BLUP). The dominant genetic variance was estimated by adjusting the effect of full-sib families. Low magnitude individual narrow sense heritabilities (0.02-0.05), individual broad sense heritabilities (0.14-0.20) and repeatability measured on an individual basis (0.15-0.21) were obtained. Dominance effects for all evaluated characteristics indicated that breeding strategies that explore heterosis must be adopted. Less than 5% increase in the parameter repeatability was obtained for a three-year evaluation period and may be the criterion to determine the maximum number of years of evaluation to be adopted, without compromising gain per cycle of selection. The identification of hybrid candidates for future cultivars and of those that can be incorporated into the breeding program was based on the genotypic and breeding values, respectively. The prediction of the performance of the hybrid progeny, based on the breeding values of the progenitors, permitted the identification of the best crosses and indicated the best parents to use in crosses.

Formal semantics for propositional attitudes

Contemporary logic is confined to a few paradigmatic attitudes such as belief, knowledge, desire and intention. My purpose is to present a general model-theoretical semantics of propositional attitudes of any cognitive or volitive mode. In my view, one can recursively define the set of all psychological modes of attitudes. As Descartes anticipated, the two primitive modes are those of belief and desire. Complex modes are obtained by adding to primitive modes special cognitive and volitive ways or special propositional content or preparatory conditions. According to standard logic of attitudes (Hintikka), human agents are either perfectly rational or totally irrational. I will proceed to a finer analysis of propositional attitudes that accounts for our imperfect but minimal rationality. For that purpose I will use a non standard predicative logic according to which propositions with the same truth conditions can have different cognitive values and I will explicate subjective in addition to objective possibilities. Next I will enumerate valid laws of my general logic of propositional attitudes. At the end I will state principles according to which minimally rational agents dynamically revise attitudes of any mode.

Comparison of maps of spatial variability of soil resistance to penetration constructed with and without covariables using a spatial linear model

A study about the spatial variability of data of soil resistance to penetration (RSP) was conducted at layers 0.0-0.1 m, 0.1-0.2 m and 0.2-0.3 m depth, using the statistical methods in univariate forms, i.e., using traditional geostatistics, forming thematic maps by ordinary kriging for each layer of the study. It was analyzed the RSP in layer 0.2-0.3 m depth through a spatial linear model (SLM), which considered the layers 0.0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m in depth as covariable, obtaining an estimation model and a thematic map by universal kriging. The thematic maps of the RSP at layer 0.2-0.3 m depth, constructed by both methods, were compared using measures of accuracy obtained from the construction of the matrix of errors and confusion matrix. There are similarities between the thematic maps. All maps showed that the RSP is higher in the north region.

A simple model for the estimation of congenital malformation frequency in racially mixed populations

A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

THE GENERALIZED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD APPLIED TO HIGH PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM

The generalized maximum likelihood method was used to determine binary interaction parameters between carbon dioxide and components of orange essential oil. Vapor-liquid equilibrium was modeled with Peng-Robinson and Soave-Redlich-Kwong equations, using a methodology proposed in 1979 by Asselineau, Bogdanic and Vidal. Experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data on binary mixtures formed with carbon dioxide and compounds usually found in orange essential oil were used to test the model. These systems were chosen to demonstrate that the maximum likelihood method produces binary interaction parameters for cubic equations of state capable of satisfactorily describing phase equilibrium, even for a binary such as ethanol/CO2. Results corroborate that the Peng-Robinson, as well as the Soave-Redlich-Kwong, equation can be used to describe phase equilibrium for the following systems: components of essential oil of orange/CO2.

Elaboration of biscuits with oatmeal and fat palm with added L-leucine and calcium for sarcopenia

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the addition of oatmeal and palm fat in the elaboration of biscuits with added L-leucine and calcium in order to develop a product for sarcopenia in the elderly. The biscuits, or cookies, were elaborated applying a central composite rotational design with surface response methodology, and the significant linear, quadratic and interaction terms were used in the second order mathematical model. Physical, physicochemical and sensory analyses were performed by a trained panel. Based on the best results obtained, three cookie formulations were selected for sensory evaluation by the target group and physicochemical determinations. The formulations with the highest sensory scores for appearance and texture and medium scores for color and expansion index were selected. The addition of calcium and leucine increased significantly the concentration of these components in the biscuits elaborated resulting in a cookie with more than 30% of DRI (Dietary Reference Intake) for calcium and leucine. The formulations selected showed high acceptance by the target group; therefore, they can be included in the diet of elderly with sarcopenia as a functional food.