Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Modelos ridge em planejamentos de misturas: uma aplicação na extração da polpa de pequi

Mixture Models can be used in experimental situations involving areas related to food science and chemistry. Some problems of a statistical nature can be found, such as effects of multicollinearity that result in uncertainty in the optimization of a dependent variable. This study proposes the application of the ridge model adapted for mixture planning considering the Kronecker (K-model) and Scheffe (S-Model) methods applied to response surfaces. The method determined the proportions of hexane, acetone and alcohol proportions that resulted in the maximum response of percentage of extracted pequi (Caryocar brasiliense) pulp oil.

VIS-NIR SPECTROMETRY, SOIL PHOSPHATE EXTRACTION METHODS AND INTERACTIONS OF SOIL ATTRIBUTES

The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationships between the spectra in the Vis-NIR range and the soil P concentrations obtained from the PM and Prem extraction methods as well as the effects of these relationships on the construction of models predicting P concentration in Oxisols. Soil samples' spectra and their PM and Prem extraction solutions were determined for the Vis-NIR region between 400 and 2500 nm. Mineralogy and/or organic matter content act as primary attributes allowing correlation of these soil phosphorus fractions with the spectra, mainly at wavelengths between 450-550, 900-1100 nm, near 1400 nm and between 2200-2300 nm. However, the regression models generated were not suitable for quantitative phosphate analysis. Solubilization of organic matter and reactions during the PM extraction process hindered correlations between the spectra and these P soil fractions. For Prem,, the presence of Ca in the extractant and preferential adsorption by gibbsite and iron oxides, particularly goethite, obscured correlations with the spectra.

EVALUATION OF METHODS IN DETECTING VANCOMYCIN MIC AMONG MRSA ISOLATES AND THE CHANGES IN ACCURACY RELATED TO DIFFERENT MIC VALUES

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) presenting reduced susceptibility to vancomycin has been associated to therapeutic failure. Some methods used by clinical laboratories may not be sufficiently accurate to detect this phenotype, compromising results and the outcome of the patient. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of methods in the detection of vancomycin MIC values among clinical isolates of MRSA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Vancomycin Minimal Inhibitory Concentration was determined for 75 MRSA isolates from inpatients of Mãe de Deus Hospital, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The broth microdilution (BM) was used as the gold-standard technique, as well as the following methods: E-test® strips (BioMérieux), M.I.C.E® strips (Oxoid), PROBAC® commercial panel and the automated system MicroScan® (Siemens). Besides, the agar screening test was carried out with 3 µg/mL of vancomycin. RESULTS: All isolates presented MIC ≤ 2 µg/mL for BM. E-test® had higher concordance (40%) in terms of global agreement with the gold standard, and there was not statistical difference among E-test® and broth microdilution results. PROBAC® panels presented MICs, in general, lower than the gold-standard panels (58.66% major errors), while M.I.C.E.® MICs were higher (67.99% minor errors). CONCLUSIONS: For the population of MRSA in question, E-test® presented the best performance, although with a heterogeneous accuracy, depending on MIC values.

On the numerical simulation of machining processes

Numerical simulation of machining processes can be traced back to the early seventies when finite element models for continuous chip formation were proposed. The advent of fast computers and development of new techniques to model large plastic deformations have favoured machining simulation. Relevant aspects of finite element simulation of machining processes are discussed in this paper, such as solution methods, material models, thermo-mechanical coupling, friction models, chip separation and breakage strategies and meshing/re-meshing strategies.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Influence of boron on growth and mineral composition of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

Nine cultivars of Phaseolus vulgaris L. were grown in nutrient solution to study the effect of boron on growth and mineral composition. Data obtained in thie study allowed for the following conclusions: (1) high levels of boron affected plant height, root length, dry weight of tops, dry weight of root, and total dry weight; (2) regression analysis was used to point out differential behaviour among cultivars in relation to boron concentration in nutrient solution; (3) the best mineral concentration in the plant tissue was obtained with application of 0,5 ppm of boron in the nutrient solution.

Can endometrial arylsulfatase A activity predict the onset of endometrial polyps over the years?

PURPOSE: To assess if arylsulfatase A activity (ASA) and sulfatide (SL) concentration in the human endometrium can be predictive of the development of endometrial polyps over the years, since ASA activity reflects the endometrial sensitivity to hormones. METHODS: ASA activity and SL concentration were determined by biochemical procedures on endometrial samples collected between 1990 and 1994 in non-menopausal women. These women underwent a new endometrial sampling following the clinical indication some years after the first endometrial sampling. The histological assessment of the second endometrial specimens found four patients with normal endometrial pattern and 10 patients with one or more endometrial polyps. ASA activity/years elapsed and SL concentration/years elapsed were compared using two tailed Mann-Whitney test for unpaired data between patients with normal pattern and patients with endometrial polyps. RESULTS: Median ASA activities were 2.62 (normal pattern) versus 1.85 (endometrial polyps) nmol hydrolized substrate/min. Median activity/years elapsed is higher in patients with second endometrial sample presenting normal pattern (p=0.006) and median SL concentration/years elapsed does not differ significantly among groups, even if median SL concentration seems to be higher in patients who subsequently developed polyps (1031 µg/g of fresh tissue versus 341,5 µg/g of fresh tissue). CONCLUSIONS: ASA activity can predict the onset of endometrial polyps over the years.

Application of mathematical models for the prediction of adsorption isotherms in solid mixture for mango powder refreshment

Solid mixtures for refreshment are already totally integrated to the Brazilian consumers' daily routine, because of their quick preparation method, yield and reasonable price - quite lower if compared to 'ready-to-drink' products or products for prompt consumption, what makes them economically more accessible to low-income populations. Within such a context, the aim of this work was to evaluate the physicochemical and mineral composition, as well as the hygroscopic behavior of four different brands of solid mixture for mango refreshment. The BET, GAB, Oswim and Henderson mathematical models were built through the adjustment of experimental data to the isotherms of adsorption. Results from the physiochemical evaluation showed that the solid mixtures for refreshments are considerable sources of ascorbic acid and reductor sugar; and regarding mineral compounds, they are significant sources of calcium, sodium and potassium. It was also verified that the solid mixtures for refreshments of the four studied brands are considered highly hygroscopic.