Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Assessment and prediction of asthma and its severity in the pediatric community

Seventy four asthmatic children aged 7 to 11 years were examined along with controls matched by age and sex. Clinical and laboratory investigations preceded a 28-day follow-up where data about morning and evening peak expiratory flow rate (PEF), symptoms and treatment were recorded. The coefficient of variation of PEF was found to be an objective measurement of asthma severity that has statistically significant correlation with both symptoms (r s= .36) and treatment (r s= .60). Moreover, it separates mild and severe asthmatics, as confirmed by statistically significant differences (p= .008 or less) in symptoms, treatment, skin allergy and airways response to exercise. Skin allergy and airways responsiveness to exercise were found to be predictors of both disease and severity. By means of logistic regression analysis it was possible to establish the probabilities for both asthma and severe asthma when children presenting and not presenting these characteristics are compared. One single positive skin test represent a probability of 88% for the development of asthma and a probability of 70% for severe disease. A PEF reduction of 10% after an exercise test implies a probability of 73% for disease and a probability of 64% for severe disease. Increases in these variables imply geometrically increased risks and their presence together have a multiplicative effect in the final risk.

Hospitalization flow in the public and private systems in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To describe the migration flows of demand for public and private hospital care among the health regions of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS Study based on a database of hospitalizations in the public and private systems of the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, in 2006. We analyzed data from 17 health regions of the state, considering people hospitalized in their own health region and those who migrated outwards (emigration) or came from other regions (immigration). The index of migration effectiveness of patients from both systems was estimated. The coverage (hospitalization coefficient) was analyzed in relation to the number of inpatient beds per population and the indexes of migration effectiveness. RESULTS The index of migration effectiveness applied to the hospital care demand flow allowed characterizing health regions with flow balance, with high emigration of public and private patients, and with high attraction of public and private patients. CONCLUSIONS There are differences in hospital care access and opportunities among health regions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Nutritional assessment and lipid profile in HIV-infected children and adolescents treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy

INTRODUCTION: HIV-infected children and adolescents treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimens that include a protease inhibitor (PI) can show significant improvements in clinical outcomes, nutritional status and quality of life. The study aimed to report nutritional and metabolic alterations for pediatric patients continuously exposed to HAART and for healthy controls for up to 1 year. METHODS: Clinical, anthropometric, lipid profile and food intake data were collected prospectively over approximately 12-months for each patient. RESULTS: Fifty-one individuals were studied, of these, 16 were healthy. After 12 months follow-up, HIV-positive individuals remained below the healthy control group parameters. No change was observed concerning food intake. Triglyceride serum levels were higher in patients using protease inhibitor at the onset of the study [PI groups: 114 (43 - 336), and 136 (63 - 271) versus control group: 54.5 (20 - 162); p = 0.003], but after twelve months follow-up, only the group using protease inhibitor for up to two months presented higher values [140 (73 - 273) versus 67.5 (33 - 117); p = 0.004]. HDL-cholesterol was lower in HIV-positive individuals [HIV-positive groups: 36 (27 - 58) and 36 (23 - 43); control 49.5 (34 - 69); p = 0.004]. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected children and adolescents treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy showed compromised nutritional parameters compared to a paired healthy control group. Individuals using protease inhibitor presented worse triglyceride serum levels compared to their healthy counterparts.

Virtual reality in assessment and treatment of schizophrenia: a systematic review

Objective To conduct a systematic review about the use of virtual reality (VR) for evaluation, treatment and/or rehabilitation of patients with schizophrenia, focused on: areas, fields and objectives; methodological issues; features of the VR used; viability and efficiency of this resource. Methods Searches were performed about schizophrenia and virtual reality in PsycINFO, Academic Search Complete, MEDLINE Complete, CINAHL with Full Text, Web of Science and Business Source Premier databases, using the following keywords: [“schizophrenia”] AND [“virtual reality” OR “serious game”] AND [“treatment” OR “therapy” OR “rehabilitation”]. The search was carried out between November 2013 and June 2014 without using any search limiters. Results A total of 101 papers were identified, and after the application of exclusion criteria, 33 papers remained. The studies analysed focused on the use of VR for the evaluation of cognitive, social, perceptual and sensory skills, and the vast majority were experimental studies, with virtual reality specifically created for them. All the reviewed papers point towards a reliable and safe use of VR for evaluating and treating cognitive and social deficits in patients with schizophrenia, with different results in terms of generalisation, motivation, assertiveness and task participation rate. Some problems were highlighted, such as its high cost and a constant need for software maintenance. Conclusion The studies show that using the virtual reality may streamline traditional evaluation/rehabilitation programmes, allowing to enhance the results achieved, both in the cognitive and in the social field, helping for the legitimisation of this population’s psycho-social inclusion.

Critical aortic stenosis in the neonate. Clinical assessment and surgical outcome in 18 patients

OBJECTIVE - To assess neonates with aortic stenosis with early decompensation operated upon. (LCO) (CHF). METHODS - A and retrospective study analyzing 6 neonates with LCO, group I (GI), and 12 neonates with CHF, group II (GII). Clinical radiographic, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic findings also provided comparative bases for the study, as did surgical and evolutional findings. RESULTS - The mean ages at hospitalization and surgery (p = 0.0031) were 14.3 and 14.8 days in GI and 35.4 and 42.8 days in GII, respectively. Cardiac murmurs were more intense in GII (p = 0.0220). The aortic ring was smaller in GI (8.0 ± 2.5mm) as compared to GII (11.4±1.4mm) (p = 0.2882). Ventricular function was reduced to 18±5.5% and 33.3±7.6% in GI and GII, respectively (p = 0.0162). Aortic atresia, however, was present only in 2 neonates in GI. Five of 6 patients in GI died but all patients in GII survived (p=0.0007). In the latter group, 84.6% of the patients were in functional class I (FC-I) in the long-term follow-up, with moderate residual lesions in 6 neonates, discrete residual lesions in 4, and reoperation in 2. CONCLUSION - Aortic stenosis is a severe anomaly of the neonate, whose immediate evolution depends on the pre-operative anatomic and functional findings, and the late evolution essentially depends on the anatomic features of the valve.

Markers, Cofactors and Staging Systems in the Study of HIV Disease Progression: A Review

This paper is aimed at providing a comprehensive review of markers, cofactors and staging systems used for HIV disease, focusing on some aspects that nowadays could even be considered historical, and advancing in current issues such as the prognostic value of viral load measurements, viral genotypic and phenotypic characterization, and new HIV disease treatment protocols. CD4+ cell values, combined with the new viral markers mentioned are promising as a parsimonious predictor set for defining both severity and progression. An adequate predictor of patient resource use for planning purposes still needs to be defined

Physical properties of a humic cambisol under tillage and cropping systems after twelve years

Soil is the basis underlying the food production chain and it is fundamental to improve and conserve its productive capacity. Imbalanced exploitation can degrade agricultural areas physical, chemical and biologically. The objective of this study was to evaluate some soil physical properties and their relation with organic carbon contents of a Humic Dystrudept under conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT), for 12 years in rotation (r) and succession (s) cropping systems. The experiment was carried out in Lages, SC (latitude 27 º 49 ' S and longitude 50 º 20 ' W, 937 m asl), using crop sequences of bean-fallow-maize-fallow-soybean in conventional tillage rotation; maize-fallow in conventional tillage succession; bean-oat-maize-turnip-soybean-vetch in no-tillage rotation; and maize-vetch in no-tillage succession. The experimental design was completely randomized with four replications. The soil samples were collected in the layers 0-2.5, 2.5-5, 5-10, and 10-20 cm. The following properties were analyzed: soil density, porosity, aggregate stability, degree of flocculation, water retention, infiltration, mechanical strength, and total organic carbon. Soil aggregation in the surface layer (0-5 cm) was better in the no-tillage than the conventional system, related to higher microporosity, organic carbon contents and water retention capacity, indicating that a periodical tillage of this soil is unnecessary. Infiltration was highest in no-tillage with crop succession.

Chemical and structural characterization of soil humic substances under agroforestry and conventional systems

Studies have proven that the agroforestry systems in the semi-arid region of the State of Ceará, Brazil, induce an increase in soil organic C levels. Notwithstanding, there is no information if this increase also results in qualitative changes in different pools of soil organic matter. The objective of this study was to verify the possible chemical and structural alterations in fulvic and humic acids of a Luvisol in areas adopting agroforestry, traditional intensive cultivation and native forest in a long-term experiment conducted in the semi-arid region of Ceará State, Brazil. The study was conducted in an experimental area of the National Goat Research Center (Embrapa) in Sobral, CE. The following treatments were evaluated: agrosilvopasture (AGP), silvopasture (SILV), intensive cultivation under fallow (ICF), and areas with native forest (NF). Soil fulvic and humic acids fractions were extracted from the 0-6 and 6-12 cm layers and characterized by elemental composition, thermogravimetry and infrared spectroscopy analyses. The elemental composition analysis of humic acids confirmed the data found for fulvic acids, showing reduction in the C, H and N levels, followed by an increase in O contents in the AGP and ICF treatments over SILV and NF. In all treatments, except to SILV in the 0-6 cm layer, the percentage of mass loss was highest (300-600 °C) for humic acids in the thermally most stable region. Despite the similarity between infrared spectra, soil fulvic acids in the SILV treatment extracted from 6-12 cm depth decrease the absorption bands at 1708 and 1408 cm-1 followed by an increase in the absorption band at 1608 cm-1 attributed to aromatic C=C groups. This behavior suggests an increase in the aromatic character of the structure. The AGP and ICF treatments, which increase the soil tilling, favored the maintenance of humic substances with a more aromatic character in the soil than SILV and NF. The less aromatic humic substances in the SILV treatment resulted in an increase of exchange sites of soil organic matter, indicating improved nutrient cycling and maintenance of productivity in the system.

Soil microbial biomass under different management and tillage systems of permanent intercropped cover species in an orange orchard

To mitigate soil erosion and enhance soil fertility in orange plantations, the permanent protection of the inter-rows by cover species has been suggested. The objective of this study was to evaluate alterations in the microbial biomass, due to different soil tillage systems and intercropped cover species between rows of orange trees. The soil of the experimental area previously used as pasture (Brachiaria humidicola) was an Ultisol (Typic Paleudult) originating from Caiuá sandstone in the northwestern part of the State of Paraná, Brazil. Two soil tillage systems were evaluated: conventional tillage (CT) in the entire area and strip tillage (ST) (strip width 2 m), in combination with different ground cover management systems. The citrus cultivar 'Pera' orange (Citrus sinensis) grafted onto 'Rangpur' lime rootstock was used. Soil samples were collected after five years of treatment from a depth of 0-15 cm, under the tree canopy and in the inter-row, in the following treatments: (1) CT and an annual cover crop with the leguminous species Calopogonium mucunoides; (2) CT and a perennial cover crop with the leguminous peanut Arachis pintoi; (3) CT and an evergreen cover crop with Bahiagrass Paspalum notatum; (4) CT and a cover crop with spontaneous Brachiaria humidicola grass vegetation; and (5) ST and maintenance of the remaining grass (pasture) of Brachiaria humidicola. Soil tillage and the different cover species influenced the microbial biomass, both under the tree canopy and in the inter-row. The cultivation of brachiaria increased C and N in the microbial biomass, while bahiagrass increased P in the microbial biomass. The soil microbial biomass was enriched in N and P by the presence of ground cover species and according to the soil P content. The grass species increased C, N and P in the soil microbial biomass from the inter-row more than leguminous species.

Water erosion in no-tillage monoculture and intercropped systems along contour lines

Water erosion is the major cause of soil and water losses and the main factor of degradation of agricultural areas. The objective of this work was to quantify pluvial water erosion from an untilled soil with crop rows along the contour, in 2009 and 2010, on a Humic Dystrupept, with the following treatments: a) maize monoculture; b) soybean monoculture; c) common bean monoculture; d) intercropped maize and bean, exposed to four simulated rainfall tests of on hour at controlled intensity (64 mm h-1). The first test was applied 18 days after sowing and the others; 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. The crop type influenced soil loss through water erosion in the simulated rainfall tests 3 and 4; soybean was most effective in erosion control in test 3, however, in test 4, maize was more effective. Water loss was influenced by the crop type in test 3 only, where maize and soybean were equally effective, with less runoff than from the other crops. The soil loss rate varied during the runoff sampling period in different ways, demonstrating a positive linear relationship between soil and water loss, in the different rainfall tests.

Soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in traditional agricultural and agroforestry systems in the semiarid region of Brazil

In the semiarid region of Brazil, inadequate management of cropping systems and low plant biomass production can contribute to reduce soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks; therefore, management systems that preserve C and N must be adopted. This study aimed to evaluate the changes in soil C and N stocks that were promoted by agroforestry (agrosilvopastoral and silvopastoral) and traditional agricultural systems (slash-and-burn clearing and cultivation for two and three years) and to compare these systems with the natural Caatinga vegetation after 13 years of cultivation. The experiment was carried out on a typical Ortic Chromic Luvisol in the municipality of Sobral, Ceará, Brazil. Soil samples were collected (layers 0-6, 6-12, 12-20, 20-40 and 40-60 cm) with four replications. The plain, convex and concave landforms in each study situation were analyzed, and the total organic C, total N and densities of the soil samples were assessed. The silvopastoral system promoted the greatest long-term reductions in C and N stocks, while the agrosilvopastoral system promoted the smallest losses and therefore represents a sustainable alternative for soil C and N sequestration in these semiarid conditions. The traditional agricultural system produced reductions of 58.87 and 9.57 Mg ha-1 in the organic C and total N stocks, respectively, which suggests that this system is inadequate for these semiarid conditions. The organic C stocks were largest in the concave landform in the agrosilvopastoral system and in the plain landform in the silvopastoral system, while the total N values were highest in the concave landform in the native, agrosilvopastoral and silvopastoral systems.

Soil physical properties and grape yield influenced by cover crops and management systems

The use of cover crops in vineyards is a conservation practice with the purpose of reducing soil erosion and improving the soil physical quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate cover crop species and management systems on soil physical properties and grape yield. The experiment was carried out in Bento Gonçalves, RS, Southern Brazil, on a Haplic Cambisol, in a vineyard established in 1989, using White and Rose Niagara grape (Vitis labrusca L.) in a horizontal, overhead trellis system. The treatments were established in 2002, consisting of three cover crops: spontaneous species (SS), black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb) (BO), and a mixture of white clover (Trifolium repens L.), red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and annual rye-grass (Lolium multiflorum L.) (MC). Two management systems were applied: desiccation with herbicide (D) and mechanical mowing (M). Soil under a native forest (NF) area was collected as a reference. The experimental design consisted of completely randomized blocks, with three replications. The soil physical properties in the vine rows were not influenced by cover crops and were similar to the native forest, with good quality of the soil structure. In the inter-rows, however, there was a reduction in biopores, macroporosity, total porosity and an increase in soil density, related to the compaction of the surface soil layer. The M system increased soil aggregate stability compared to the D system. The treatments affected grapevine yield only in years with excess or irregular rainfall.

Residual effect of soil tillage on water erosion from a Typic Paleudalf under long-term no-tillage and cropping systems

Soil erosion is one of the chief causes of agricultural land degradation. Practices of conservation agriculture, such as no-tillage and cover crops, are the key strategies of soil erosion control. In a long-term experiment on a Typic Paleudalf, we evaluated the temporal changes of soil loss and water runoff rates promoted by the transition from conventional to no-tillage systems in the treatments: bare soil (BS); grassland (GL); winter fallow (WF); intercrop maize and velvet bean (M+VB); intercrop maize and jack bean (M+JB); forage radish as winter cover crop (FR); and winter cover crop consortium ryegrass - common vetch (RG+CV). Intensive soil tillage induced higher soil losses and water runoff rates; these effects persisted for up to three years after the adoption of no-tillage. The planting of cover crops resulted in a faster decrease of soil and water loss rates in the first years after conversion from conventional to no-tillage than to winter fallow. The association of no-tillage with cover crops promoted progressive soil stabilization; after three years, soil losses were similar and water runoff was lower than from grassland soil. In the treatments of cropping systems with cover crops, soil losses were reduced by 99.7 and 66.7 %, compared to bare soil and winter fallow, while the water losses were reduced by 96.8 and 71.8 % in relation to the same treatments, respectively.

Decomposition of Arachis pintoi and Hyparrhenia rufa litters in monoculture and intercropped systems under lowland soil

Tropical grasslands under lowland soils are generally underutilized and the litter of forage legumes may be used to recover these degraded pastures. The objective of this work was to study the dynamics of litter decomposition of Arachis pintoi (pinto peanut), Hyparrhenia rufa (thatching grass) and a mixture of both species in a lowland soil. These treatments were analyzed in three areas: grass monoculture, legume monoculture and legume intercropped with the grass during the dry and wet seasons. Litter bags containing the legume, grass or a mixture of both species were incubated to estimate the decomposition rate and microorganism colonization. Decomposition constants (K) and litter half-lives (T1/2) were estimated by an exponential model whereas number of microorganisms in specific media were determined by plate dilution. The decomposition rate, release of nutrients and microorganisms number, especially bacteria, increased when pinto peanut was added to thatching grass, influenced by favorable lignin/N and C/N ratios in legume litter. When pinto peanut litter was incubated in the grass plots, 50% N and P was released within about 135 days in the dry season and in the wet season, the equivalent release occurred within 20 days. These results indicate that A. pintoi has a great potential for nutrient recycling via litter and can be used to recover degraded areas.