Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Survival of adult AIDS patients in a reference hospital of a metropolitan area in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological factors in AIDS patients survival in a reference hospital. METHODS: A sample of 502 adult AIDS patients out of 1,494 AIDS cases registered in a hospital in Fortaleza, Brazil, was investigated between 1986 and 1998. Sixteen cases were excluded due to death at the moment of the AIDS diagnosis and 486 were analyzed in the study. Socioeconomic and clinical epidemiological were the variables studied. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Three hundred and sixty two out of the 486 patients studied took at least one antiretroviral drug and their survival was ten times longer than those who did not take any drug (746 and 79 days, respectively, p <0.001). Patients who took two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus protease inhibitor were found to have higher survival rates (p <0.001). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly lower for patients who took NRTI and a protease inhibitor compared to those who took only NRTI. In addition, this risk was much lower from the second year on (0.10; 95%CI: 0.42-0.23). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly higher for less educated patients (15.58; 95%CI: 6.64-36.58) and those who had two or more systemic diseases (3.03; 95%CI: 1.74-5.25). After the first year post-diagnosis, there was no risk difference for these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher education revealed to exert a significant influence in the first-year survival. Antiretroviral drugs had a greater impact in the survival from the second year on. A more aggressive antiretroviral therapy started earlier could benefit those patients.

Survival of a cohort of women with cervical cancer diagnosed in a Brazilian cancer center

OBJECTIVE: To assess overall survival of women with cervical cancer and describe prognostic factors associated. METHODS: A total of 3,341 cases of invasive cervical cancer diagnosed at the Brazilian Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1999 and 2004 were selected. Clinical and pathological characteristics and follow-up data were collected. There were performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and a multivariate analysis through Cox model. RESULTS: Of all cases analyzed, 68.3% had locally advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. The 5-year overall survival was 48%. After multivariate analysis, tumor staging at diagnosis was the single variable significantly associated with prognosis (p<0.001). There was seen a dose-response relationship between mortality and clinical staging, ranging from 27.8 to 749.6 per 1,000 cases-year in women stage I and IV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that early detection through prevention programs is crucial to increase cervical cancer survival.

Liver morphology with emphasis on bile ducts changes and survival analysis in mice submitted to multiple Schistosoma mansoni infections and chemotherapy

In an attempt to be as close as possible to the infected and treated patients of the endemic areas of schistosomiasis (S. mansoni) and in order to achieve a long period of follow-up, mice were repeatedly infected with a low number of cercariae. Survival data and histological variables such as schistosomal granuloma, portal changes, hepatocellular necrosis, hepatocellular regeneration, schistosomotic pigment, periductal fibrosis and chiefly bile ducts changes were analysed in the infected treated and non treated mice. Oxamniquine chemotherapy in repeatedly infected mice prolonged survival significantly when compared to non-treated animals (chi-square 9.24, p = 0.0024), thus confirming previous results with a similar experimental model but with a shorter term follow-up. Furthermore, mortality decreased rapidly after treatment suggesting an abrupt reduction in the severity of hepatic lesions. A morphological and immunohistochemical study of the liver was carried out. Portal fibrosis, with a pattern resembling human Symmers fibrosis was present at a late phase in the infected animals. Bile duct lesions were quite close to those described in human Mansonian schistosomiasis. Schistosomal antigen was observed in one isolated altered bile duct cell. The pathogenesis of the bile duct changes and its relation to the parasite infection and/or their antigens are discussed.

Interferon gamma increases survival in urine experimental cryptococcosis

Systemic disease by Cryptococcus neoformans (C. neoformans) is a common opportunistic infection in immunodeficient patients. Cellular immunity seems to be the most important determinant of resistance. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of recombinant rat interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) in murine cryptococcosis (Balb/c mice infected by IP route with the Rivas strain of C. neoformans), evaluating survival time, macroscopic and microscopic examination of the organs, and massive seeding of brain homogenate. IFN-gamma treatment, at a daily dose of 10,000 IU, did not modify significantly these variables when mice were challenged with a high inoculum (10(7) yeasts) and treatment was delayed to 5 days after infection (median survival 21 days in control mice vs. 23 days in IFN-treated). Another set of experiments suggested that IFN-gamma treatment, at a dose of 10,000 IU/day, begun at the moment of infection could be useful (it prolonged survival from 20 to 28 days, although the difference did not achieve statistical signification). When used simultaneously with infection by 3.5 x 10(5) yeasts, IFN-gamma at 10,000 IU/day for 15 days significantly prolonged survival of mice (p = 0.004). These results suggest that, depending on the experimental conditions, IFN-gamma can improve survival of mice infected with a lethal dose of C. neoformans.

Morbidity and survival in advanced AIDS in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Opportunistic diseases (OD) are the most common cause of death in AIDS patients. To access the incidence of OD and survival in advanced immunodeficiency, we included 79 patients with AIDS treated at Hospital Evandro Chagas (FIOCRUZ) from September 1997 to December 1999 with at least one CD4 count <=100 cells/mm³. The incidence of OD was analyzed by Poisson's regression, and survival by Kaplan Meier and Cox analysis, considering a retrospective (before CD4 <=100 cells/mm³) and a prospective (after CD4 <=100 cells/mm³) period, and controlling for demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics. The confidence interval estipulated was 95%. Mean follow-up period was 733 days (CI = 683-782). During the study 9 (11.4%) patients died. Survival from AIDS diagnosis was a mean of 2589 days (CI = 2363-2816) and from the date of the CD4 count CD4 <=100 cells/mm³ was a mean of 1376 (CI = 1181-1572) days. Incidence of OD was 0.51 pp/y before CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³ and 0.29 pp/y after CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³. A lower number of ODs before CD4 < 100 cells/mm³ was associated with lower incidence rates after CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³. AIDS diagnosis based on CD4+ counts <= 200 cells/mm³ was associated with lower incidence rates after CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³. Baseline CD4 counts above 50 cells/mm³ (HR = 0.13) and restoration of baseline CD4+ counts above 100 cells/mm³ (HR = 0.16) were associated with a lower risk of death. Controling both variables, only restoration of baseline counts was statistically significant (HR = 0.22, p = 0.04). We found a very low incidence of OD and long survival after CD4 < 100 cells/mm³. Survival was significantly associated with restoration of baseline CD4 counts above 100 cells/mm³.

Inhibitory effect of deferoxamine on Paracoccidioides brasiliensis survival in human monocytes: reversal by holotransferrin not by apotransferrin

The mechanisms used by Paracoccidioides brasiliensis to survive into phagocytic cells are not clear. Cellular iron metabolism is of critical importance to the growth of several intracellular pathogens whose capacity to multiply in mononuclear phagocytes is dependent on the availability of intracellular iron. Thus, the objective of this paper was to investigate the role of intracellular iron in regulating the capacity of P. brasiliensis yeast cells to survive within human monocytes. Treatment of monocytes with deferoxamine, an iron chelator, suppressed the survival of yeasts in a concentration-dependent manner. The effect of deferoxamine was reversed by iron-saturated transferrin (holotransferrin) but not by nonsaturated transferrin (apotransferrin). These results strongly suggest that P. brasiliensis survival in human monocytes is iron dependent.

Survival of Trypanosoma cruzi in sugar cane used to prepare juice

Chagas disease can be transmitted to man by many different means, including contact with infected triatomine feces, blood transfusion, laboratory accidents, organ transplants, and congenital or oral routes. The latter mode has received considerable attention recently. In this assay, we evaluate the survival of Trypanosoma cruzi contaminating sugar cane used to prepare juice, as well as the viability and capacity for infection by the parasite after recovery. Thirty triatomines were contaminated with T. cruzi Y strain and 45 days later pieces of sugar cane were contaminated with the intestinal contents of the insects. The pieces were ground at different intervals after contamination (time = 0, 1, 4, 6, 12 and 24 hours) and the juice extracted and analyzed. Different methods were used to show T. cruzi in the juice: direct analysis, hematocrit tube centrifugation and QBC, and experimental inoculation in 47 female BALB/c mice (five control mice and seven mice for each interval examined (five inoculated orally and two intraperitoneally). Positive results were found using the direct analysis and QBC methods for juice prepared up to 12 hours after initial contamination. However, by the centrifugation technique, positivity was found only up to four hours after contamination of the sugar cane. Inoculated animals showed parasitemia during a 14 day observation period, demonstrating the high survival rate of T. cruzi in sugar cane.

EFFECTS OF SINGLE, BINARY AND TERTIARY COMBINATIONS WITH Jatropha gossypifolia AND OTHER PLANT-DERIVED MOLLUSCICIDES ON REPRODUCTION AND SURVIVAL OF THE SNAIL Lymnaea acuminata

The effect of sub-lethal doses (40% and 80% of LC50/24h) of plant derived molluscicides of singly, binary (1:1) and tertiary (1:1:1) combinations of the Rutin, Ellagic acid, Betulin and taraxerol with J. gossypifolia latex, leaf and stem bark powder extracts and their active component on the reproduction of freshwater snail Lymnaea acuminata have been studied. It was observed that the J. gossypifolia latex, stem bark, individual leaf and their combinations with other plant derived active molluscicidal components caused a significant reduction in fecundity, hatchability and survival of young snails. It is believed that sub-lethal exposure of these molluscicides on snail reproduction is a complex process involving more than one factor in reducing the reproductive capacity.

SURVIVAL, INDUCTION AND RESUSCITATION OF Vibrio cholerae FROM THE VIABLE BUT NON-CULTURABLE STATE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, can enter into a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) state in response to unfavorable conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in situ survival of V. cholerae in an aquatic environment of the Southern Caribbean Sea, and its induction and resuscitation from the VBNC state. V. cholerae non-O1, non-O139 was inoculated into diffusion chambers placed at the Cuare Wildlife Refuge, Venezuela, and monitored for plate, total and viable cells counts. At 119 days of exposure to the environment, the colony count was < 10 CFU/mL and a portion of the bacterial population entered the VBNC state. Additionally, the viability decreased two orders of magnitude and morphological changes occurred from rod to coccoid cells. Among the aquatic environmental variables, the salinity had negative correlation with the colony counts in the dry season. Resuscitation studies showed significant recovery of cell cultivability with spent media addition (p < 0.05). These results suggest that V. cholerae can persist in the VBNC state in this Caribbean environment and revert to a cultivable form under favorable conditions. The VBNC state might represent a critical step in cholera transmission in susceptible areas.

CHAGASIC MENINGOENCEPHALITIS IN AN HIV INFECTED PATIENT WITH MODERATE IMMUNOSUPPRESSION: PROLONGED SURVIVAL AND CHALLENGES IN THE HAART ERA

The reactivation of Chagas disease in HIV infected patients presents high mortality and morbidity. We present the case of a female patient with confirmed Chagasic meningoencephalitis as AIDS-defining illness. Interestingly, her TCD4+ lymphocyte cell count was 318 cells/mm3. After two months of induction therapy, one year of maintenance with benznidazol, and early introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the patient had good clinical, parasitological and radiological evolution. We used a qualitative polymerase chain reaction for the monitoring of T. cruzi parasitemia during and after the treatment. We emphasize the potential value of molecular techniques along with clinical and radiological parameters in the follow-up of patients with Chagas disease and HIV infection. Early introduction of HAART, prolonged induction and maintenance of antiparasitic therapy, and its discontinuation are feasible, in the current management of reactivation of Chagas disease.

SURVIVAL CAPACITY OF Arcobacter butzleri INOCULATED IN POULTRY MEAT AT TWO DIFFERENT REFRIGERATION TEMPERATURES

Arcobacter spp. are emerging enteropathogens and potential zoonotic agents that can be transmitted by food and water, being considered a public health risk. The high isolation rate of these bacteria from poultry products suggests that it may be a major source of human infections. One hallmark for differentiating the genus Arcobacter fromCampylobacter includes their growing capacity at low temperatures (15-30 °C) under aerobic conditions. However, little is known about the population density variation of these bacteria at different refrigeration temperatures. The aim of this study was to determine the survival behavior of two different Arcobacter butzleri concentrations (104 CFU/mL and 107 CFU/mL) inoculated on chicken legs and held at two different refrigeration temperatures (4 and 10 °C) throughout storage time. Results have shown that A. butzleri had growing capacity both at 4 and 10 °C. No statistical difference between the survival trends was found for both bacterial concentrations and temperatures tested. This study shows that A. butzleri is a robust species with regard to storage temperature, and represents a potential health risk for poultry meat consumers.

Prolonged survival and immune reconstitution after chagasic meningoencephalitis in a patient with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

We report a case of cerebral meningoencephalitis due to Trypanosoma cruzi in a patient with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. The patient presented with seizures and focal neurological signs. Definitive diagnosis of chagasic meningoencephalitis was made by demonstration of free trypomastigote forms in the cerebrospinal fluid. Benznidazol was prescribed with clinical and neurological improvement. Antiretroviral drugs improved cellular immunity and three years later the patient presents a good clinical condition with immune reconstitution and undetectable viral load. Chagasic meningoencephalitis has a poor prognosis when specific treatment is not initiated or is delayed. A high index of diagnosis is necessary for early diagnosis and treatment, especially in endemic areas for Trypanosoma cruzi infection.

Demographic determinants of survival of people living with HIV attending an outpatient reference unit in the city of Três Lagoas, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in the period 1984-2009

INTRODUCTION: While the incidence of HIV infection and AIDS is increasing in small Brazilian cities, epidemiological studies are often conducted in large urban centers. METHODS: Our group conducted a retrospective analysis of survival determinants among 358 patients who attended a reference unit in a small city. RESULTS: Death risk was lower among men that had sex with men, patients with an HIV-seropositive partner, and those admitted after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was available. CONCLUSIONS: The study documents the striking beneficial effect of HAART. The finding of other groups with improved survival may aid in the development of programmatic strategies.

Long term (five-year) survival following radical surgical treatment plus adjuvant chemotherapy (FAM) in advanced gastric cancer: a controlled study

Several drugs and their associations are being used for adjuvant or complementary chemotherapy with the aim of improving results of gastric cancer treatment. The objective of this study was to verify the impact of these drugs on nutrition and on survival rate after radical treatment of 53 patients with gastric cancer in stage III of the TNM classification. A control group including 28 patients who had only undergone radical resection was compared to a group of 25 patients who underwent the same operative technique followed by adjuvant polychemotherapy with FAM (5-fluorouracil, Adriamycin, and mitomycin C). In this latter group, chemotherapy toxicity in relation to hepatic, renal, cardiologic, neurological, hematologic, gastrointestinal, and dermatological functions was also studied. There was no significant difference on admission between both groups in relation to gender, race, macroscopic tumoral type of tumor according to the Borrmann classification, location of the tumor in the stomach, length of the gastric resection, or response to cutaneous tests on delayed sensitivity. Chemotherapy was started on average, 2.3 months following surgical treatment. Clinical and laboratory follow-up of all patients continued for 5 years. The following conclusions were reached: 1) The nutritional status and incidence of gastrointestinal manifestation were similar in both groups; 2) There was no occurrence of cardiac, renal, neurological, or hepatic toxicity or death due to the chemotherapeutic method per se; 3) Dermatological alterations and hematological toxicity occurred exclusively in patients who underwent polychemotherapy; 4) There was no significant difference between the rate and site of tumoral recurrence, the disease-free interval, or the survival rate of both study groups; 5) Therefore, we concluded, after a 5-year follow-up, chemotherapy with the FAM regimen did not increase the survival rate.