Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficient for potato in organic farming

The aim of this study was to quantify the water consumption and the crop coefficients (Kc) for the potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), in Seropédica, Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, under organic management, and to simulate the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) using the Kc obtained in the field and the ones recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The water consumption was obtained through soil water balance, using TDR probes installed at 0.15m and 0.30m deep. At the different stages of development, the Kc was determined by the ratio of ETc and reference evapotranspiration, obtained by Penman-Monteith FAO 56. The crop coefficients obtained were 0.35, 0.45, 1.29 and 0.63. The accumulated ETc obtained in the field was 109.6 mm, while the ETc accumulated from FAO's Kc were 142.2 and 138mm, respectively, considering the classical values and the values adjusted to the local climatic conditions. The simulation of water consumption based on meteorological data of historical series from 1961 to 2007 provided higher value of ETc when compared with the one obtained in the field. From the meteorological data of historical series, it was observed that the use of Kc recommended by FAO may overestimate the amount of irrigation water by 9%, over the same growing season.

Hydrological simulation using SWAT model in headwater basin in Southeast Brazil

Hydrological models are important tools that have been used in water resource planning and management. Thus, the aim of this work was to calibrate and validate in a daily time scale, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the watershed of the Galo creek , located in Espírito Santo State. To conduct the study we used georeferenced maps of relief, soil type and use, in addition to historical daily time series of basin climate and flow. In modeling were used time series corresponding to the periods Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2000 and Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 20, 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. Model performance evaluation was done using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E NS) and the percentage of bias (P BIAS). SWAT evaluation was also done in the simulation of the following hydrological variables: maximum and minimum annual daily flowsand minimum reference flows, Q90 and Q95, based on mean absolute error. E NS and P BIAS were, respectively, 0.65 and 7.2% and 0.70 and 14.1%, for calibration and validation, indicating a satisfactory performance for the model. SWAT adequately simulated minimum annual daily flow and the reference flows, Q90 and Q95; it was not suitable in the simulation of maximum annual daily flows.

Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer

Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role. In 1982/84 more than half of the women (52.8%) in the Federal Republic of Germany lived to see their eightieth birthdays and almost half of the men (47.3%) lived to see their seventy-fifth. Our biological existence is guaranteed to an extent today that would have been unthinkable a few generations ago. Then, the classic troika of "plague, hunger and war" threatened our forefathers all the time and everywhere. The radical transition from the formerly uncertain to a present-day certain lifetime, which is the result of the repression of "plague, hunger and war", led to unexpected consequences for our living together. Our forefathers were forced to live in closely knit Gemeinschaften in the interest of physical survival and to subordinate their egoistic goals to a common value, but now these pressures have, for the most part, fallen away. Correspondingly, this much more certain EGO has taken center stage. An ever greater number of us chooses to live life as single beings: the number of marriages is lower every year; the number of divorces is on the increase; in Berlin (West) more than half (sic! 52.3%) of all households are already composed on only one person. For the last dozen years the annual number of births in the Federal Republic has been insufficient to ensure population replacement. Not a population explosion but rather the opposite, a population implosion, is our problem. Human beings do not appear to be "social animals", as was axiomatically assumed for so long. They were only forced to behave as such for as long as "plague, hunger and war" forced them to do so. When these life endangering conditions no longer exist and life becomes certain even without their being integrated into a Gemeinschaft then humans suddenly show themselves more and more to be independent single beings. It is not the percentage of the population that is over sixty or sixty-five that is decisive in this context but rather how certain adults perceive their biological lives to be, since they are the ones who organize their lives, who build communities or who are ever more often willing only to enter into means-to-an-end personal unions without lasting or close ties and mutual responsibilities. There are many signs which seem to point to a development in this direction in Brazil as well. More and more adults in Brazil are caught up in the deep-seated transition from an uncertain to a certain lifetime. A third of them die after having reached their sixty-fifth birthday. It therefore seems to me to be high time that one began to give more consideration to the other side of the story in Brazil as well. And who is more suited intensively to consider the long-term perspectives than those engaged in the public health sector in whose competence, after all, such aspects, as "life certainty", "life expectancy" and "age at death" belong?

Dengue in the South-eastern region of Brazil: historical analysis and epidemiology

The aim of the study is an historical analysis of the work undertaken by the Public Health organizations dedicated to the combat of the Aedes aegypti, as well as an epidemiolocal study of persons with unexplained fever, with a view to evaluating the ocurrence of dengue within the population. The Mac-Elisa, Gac-Elisa, hemaglutination inhibition, isolation and typage tests were used. Organophosphate intoxication in agricultural workers was also assessed by measuring concentrations of serie cholinesterase. A sera samples of 2,094 were collected in 23 towns, and the type 1 dengue virus was detected in 17 towns and autochthony was confirmed in 12 of them. The cholinesterase was measured in 2,391 sera samples of which 53 cases had abnormal levels. Poisoning was confirmed in 3 cases. Results reveal an epidemic the gravity of which was not officially know. The relationshipe between levels of IgM and IgG antibodies indicates the outbreak tendency. The widespread distribution of the vector is troubling because of the possibility of the urbanization of wild yellow fever, whereas the absence of A. aegypti in 2 towns with autochthony suggests the existence of another vector. Since there is no vaccine against dengue, the combat of the vector is the most efficient measure for preventing outbreaks. The eradication of the vector depends on government decisions which depend, for their execution, on the organization of the Health System and the propagation of information concerning the prevention of the disease using all possible means because short and long term results depend on the education and the active participation of the entire population.

A historical perspective and prospects of biomedical research on parasitic diseases

We all hope that biotechnology will answer some social and economical unavoidable requirements of the modern life. It is necessary to improve agriculture production, food abundance and health quality in a sustainable development. It is indeed a hard task to keep the progress on taking into account the rational use of genetic resources and the conservation of biodiversity. In this context, a historical perspective and prospects of the biomedical research on parasitic diseases is described in a view of three generations of investigators. This work begins with a picture of the scientific progress on biomedical research and human health over the last centuries. This black-and-white picture is painted by dissecting current advancements of molecular biology and modern genetics, which are outlined at the meaning of prospecting achievements in health science for this new millenium.

Accidental tetanus: prognosis evaluation in a historical series at a hospital in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

A total of 868 (84.89%) patients diagnosed with tetanus were studied, out of the 1,024 tetanus patients hospitalized at Couto Maia Hospital (Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), during the period between 1986 and 1997. Of this group (n = 868), 63.5% (n = 551) were discharged, 35.4% (n = 307) died, and 1.1% (n = 10) were transferred. The average age of the deceased patients (38.73 ± 23.31 years) was significantly greater (p < 0.0001) than the age of those who survived (29.21 ± 20.05 years). Analyzing the variables of the logistic regression model with statistic significance (p £ 0.25) for univariate analysis, we observed a greater association of risk for worst prognosis (death) in patients aged ³ 51 years; time of illness < 48 hours; time of incubation < 168 hours; neck rigidity; spasms; opisthotonos; body temperature ³ 37.7 ºC; heart beat ³ 111 beats/minute; sympathetic hyperactivity and association with pneumonia. Among the group of those who survived, patients with 1 to 5 of those variables (n = 398; 76.8%) were more frequent, while among patients of the group of the deceased, 70.3% (n = 206) presented 6 to 10 of those variables, with a highly significant difference (p < 10-8). In conclusion, the indicators described provide early information that may guide the prognosis and medical and nurse care.

A historical note on an imported case of loiasis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1964

Loiasis is a filarial disease transmitted by the Chrysops spp. tabanid flies in West and Central Africa. It is most commonly diagnosed by the clinical manifestations of Calabar swellings (transient localized inflammatory edema) or, most dramatically, by the appearance of a migrating worm through the conjunctival tissues or the bridge of the nose. We report the case of a 35-year-old resident in the city of Rio de Janeiro who displayed a moving Loa loa in the bulbar conjunctival tissue two years after returning from a six-month trip to Uganda. Surgical removal of the worm was performed.

HISTORICAL SERIES OF PATIENTS WITH VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS TREATED WITH MEGLUMINE ANTIMONIATE IN A HOSPITAL FOR TROPICAL DISEASES, MACEIÓ-AL, BRAZIL

Introduction: Visceral leishmaniasis is an endemic protozoan found in Brazil. It is characterized by fever, pallor, hepatosplenomegaly, lymphadenopathy, and progressive weakness in the patient. It may lead to death if untreated. The drug of choice for treatment is meglumine antimoniate (Glucantime®). The aim of this study was to evaluate patients with visceral leishmaniasis according to criteria used for diagnosis, possible reactions to Glucantime® and blood pressure measured before and after treatment. Methods: 89 patients admitted to the Teaching Hospital Dr. Hélvio Auto (HEHA) in Maceió-AL, in the period from May 2006 to December 2009 were evaluated. Data were collected on age, sex, origin, method of diagnosis, adverse effects of drugs, duration of hospitalization, duration of treatment and dosage up to the onset of adverse effects. Results: There was a predominance of child male patients, aged between one and five years old, from the interior of the State of Alagoas. Parasitological diagnosis was made by bone marrow aspirate; three (3.37%) patients died, 12 (13.48%) had adverse reactions and treatment was changed to amphotericin B, and 74 (83.14%) were cured. Changes that led to replacing Glucantime® were persistent fever, jaundice, rash, bleeding and cyanosis. Conclusion: During the study, 89 patients hospitalized for VL were analyzed: 74 were healed, 12 were replaced by amphotericin B treatment and three died. Most of them were under five years old, male and came from the interior. The dosage and duration of treatment with Glucantime® were consistent with that advocated by the Ministry of Health. Persistence of fever, jaundice, rash, cyanosis and bleeding were the reactions that led the physician to modify treatment. No change was observed in blood pressure before and after treatment. This study demonstrated the work of a hospital, a reference in the treatment of leishmaniasis, which has many patients demanding its services in this area. It demonstrates that this disease is still important today, and needs to be addressed properly to prevent injury and death due to the disease.