Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Liver morphology with emphasis on bile ducts changes and survival analysis in mice submitted to multiple Schistosoma mansoni infections and chemotherapy

In an attempt to be as close as possible to the infected and treated patients of the endemic areas of schistosomiasis (S. mansoni) and in order to achieve a long period of follow-up, mice were repeatedly infected with a low number of cercariae. Survival data and histological variables such as schistosomal granuloma, portal changes, hepatocellular necrosis, hepatocellular regeneration, schistosomotic pigment, periductal fibrosis and chiefly bile ducts changes were analysed in the infected treated and non treated mice. Oxamniquine chemotherapy in repeatedly infected mice prolonged survival significantly when compared to non-treated animals (chi-square 9.24, p = 0.0024), thus confirming previous results with a similar experimental model but with a shorter term follow-up. Furthermore, mortality decreased rapidly after treatment suggesting an abrupt reduction in the severity of hepatic lesions. A morphological and immunohistochemical study of the liver was carried out. Portal fibrosis, with a pattern resembling human Symmers fibrosis was present at a late phase in the infected animals. Bile duct lesions were quite close to those described in human Mansonian schistosomiasis. Schistosomal antigen was observed in one isolated altered bile duct cell. The pathogenesis of the bile duct changes and its relation to the parasite infection and/or their antigens are discussed.

Survival analysis of female dogs with mammary tumors after mastectomy: epidemiological, clinical and morphological aspects

Abstract: Mammary gland tumors are the most common type of tumors in bitches but research on survival time after diagnosis is scarce. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between survival time after mastectomy and a number of clinical and morphological variables. Data was collected retrospectively on bitches with mammary tumors seen at the Small Animal Surgery Clinic Service at the University of Brasília. All subjects had undergone mastectomy. Survival analysis was conducted using Cox's proportional hazard method. Of the 139 subjects analyzed, 68 died and 71 survived until the end of the study (64 months). Mean age was 11.76 years (SD=2.71), 53.84% were small dogs. 76.92% of the tumors were malignant, and 65.73% had both thoracic and inguinal glands affected. Survival time in months was associated with age (hazard rate ratios [HRR] =1.23, p-value =1.4x10-4), animal size (HRR between giant and small animals =2.61, p-value =0.02), nodule size (HRR =1.09, p-value =0.03), histological type (HRR between solid carcinoma and carcinoma in a mixed tumor =2.40, p-value =0.02), time between diagnosis and surgery (TDS, with HRR =1.21, p-value =2.7x10-15), and the interaction TDS*follow-up time (HRR =0.98, p-value =1.6x10-11). The present study is one of the few on the subject matter. Several important covariates were evaluated and age, animal size, nodule size, histological type, TDS and TDS*follow up time were identified as significantly associated to survival time.

Survival of adult AIDS patients in a reference hospital of a metropolitan area in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological factors in AIDS patients survival in a reference hospital. METHODS: A sample of 502 adult AIDS patients out of 1,494 AIDS cases registered in a hospital in Fortaleza, Brazil, was investigated between 1986 and 1998. Sixteen cases were excluded due to death at the moment of the AIDS diagnosis and 486 were analyzed in the study. Socioeconomic and clinical epidemiological were the variables studied. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Three hundred and sixty two out of the 486 patients studied took at least one antiretroviral drug and their survival was ten times longer than those who did not take any drug (746 and 79 days, respectively, p <0.001). Patients who took two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus protease inhibitor were found to have higher survival rates (p <0.001). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly lower for patients who took NRTI and a protease inhibitor compared to those who took only NRTI. In addition, this risk was much lower from the second year on (0.10; 95%CI: 0.42-0.23). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly higher for less educated patients (15.58; 95%CI: 6.64-36.58) and those who had two or more systemic diseases (3.03; 95%CI: 1.74-5.25). After the first year post-diagnosis, there was no risk difference for these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher education revealed to exert a significant influence in the first-year survival. Antiretroviral drugs had a greater impact in the survival from the second year on. A more aggressive antiretroviral therapy started earlier could benefit those patients.

Survival of a cohort of women with cervical cancer diagnosed in a Brazilian cancer center

OBJECTIVE: To assess overall survival of women with cervical cancer and describe prognostic factors associated. METHODS: A total of 3,341 cases of invasive cervical cancer diagnosed at the Brazilian Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1999 and 2004 were selected. Clinical and pathological characteristics and follow-up data were collected. There were performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and a multivariate analysis through Cox model. RESULTS: Of all cases analyzed, 68.3% had locally advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. The 5-year overall survival was 48%. After multivariate analysis, tumor staging at diagnosis was the single variable significantly associated with prognosis (p<0.001). There was seen a dose-response relationship between mortality and clinical staging, ranging from 27.8 to 749.6 per 1,000 cases-year in women stage I and IV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that early detection through prevention programs is crucial to increase cervical cancer survival.

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

Dimensionality of the premenstrual syndrome: confirmatory factor analysis of premenstrual dysphoric symptoms among college students

Premenstrual syndrome and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) seem to form a severity continuum with no clear-cut boundary. However, since the American Psychiatric Association proposed the research criteria for PMDD in 1994, there has been no agreement about the symptomatic constellation that constitutes this syndrome. The objective of the present study was to establish the core latent structure of PMDD symptoms in a non-clinical sample. Data concerning PMDD symptoms were obtained from 632 regularly menstruating college students (mean age 24.4 years, SD 5.9, range 17 to 49). For the first random half (N = 316), we performed principal component analysis (PCA) and for the remaining half (N = 316), we tested three theory-derived competing models of PMDD by confirmatory factor analysis. PCA allowed us to extract two correlated factors, i.e., dysphoric-somatic and behavioral-impairment factors. The two-dimensional latent model derived from PCA showed the best overall fit among three models tested by confirmatory factor analysis (c²53 = 64.39, P = 0.13; goodness-of-fit indices = 0.96; adjusted goodness-of-fit indices = 0.95; root mean square residual = 0.05; root mean square error of approximation = 0.03; 90%CI = 0.00 to 0.05; Akaike's information criterion = -41.61). The items "out of control" and "physical symptoms" loaded conspicuously on the first factor and "interpersonal impairment" loaded higher on the second factor. The construct validity for PMDD was accounted for by two highly correlated dimensions. These results support the argument for focusing on the core psychopathological dimension of PMDD in future studies.

Education, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and IL-2 and IL-6 gene polymorphisms in the survival of head and neck cancer

The association of education, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and interleukin-2 (IL-2 +114 and -384) and -6 (IL-6 -174) DNA polymorphisms with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) was investigated in a cohort study of 445 subjects. IL-2 and IL-6 genotypes were determined by real-time PCR. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of disease-specific survival according to anatomical sites of the head and neck. Mean age was 56 years and most patients were males (87.6%). Subjects with 5 or more years of schooling had better survival in larynx cancer. Smoking had no effect on HNSCC survival, but alcohol consumption had a statistically significant effect on larynx cancer. IL-2 gene +114 G/T (HR = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.15-1.81) and T/T (HR = 0.22; 95%CI = 0.02-3.19) genotypes were associated with better survival in hypopharynx cancer. IL-2 +114 G/T was a predictor of poor survival in oral cavity/oropharynx cancer and larynx cancer (HR = 1.32; 95%CI = 0.61-2.85). IL-2 -384 G/T was associated with better survival in oral cavity/oropharynx cancer (HR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.45-1.42) and hypopharynx cancer (HR = 0.68; 95%CI = 0.21-2.20), but an inverse relationship was observed for larynx cancer. IL-6 -174 G/C was associated with better survival in hypopharynx cancer (HR = 0.68; 95%CI = 0.26-1.78) and larynx cancer (HR = 0.93; 95%CI = 0.42-2.07), and C/C reduced mortality in larynx cancer. In general, our results are similar to previous reports on the value of education, smoking, alcohol consumption, and IL-2 and IL-6 genetic polymorphisms for the prognosis of HNSCC, but the risks due to these variables are small and estimates imprecise.

Assessment of a five-year survival on hemodialysis in Brazil: a cohort of 3,082 incident patients

Brazil has the third largest contingent of patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD) worldwide. However, little is known regarding survival rate and predictors of mortality risk in that population, which are the purposes of this study. A total of 3,082 patients incident on HD, from 2000 to 2004, at 25 dialysis facilities distributed among 7 out of 26 states of Brazil were followed-up until 2009. Patients were 52 ± 16 years-old, 57.8% men, and 20.4%, diabetics. The primary outcome was all causes of mortality. Data were censored at five years of follow-up. The global five-year survival rate was 58.2%. In the Cox proportional model, variables associated with risk of death were: age (hazard ratio - HR = 1.44 per decade, p < 0.0001), diabetes (HR = 1.51, p < 0.0001), serum albumin (HR = 0.76 per g/dL, p = 0.001), creatinine (HR = 0.92 per mg/dL, p < 0.0001), and phosphorus (HR = 1.06 per mg/dL, p = 0.04). The present results show that the mortality rate on HD in this Brazilian cohort was relatively low, but the population is younger and with a lower prevalence of diabetes than the ones reported for developed countries.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

LABORATORY EVALUATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF Aedes aegypti IN TWO SEASONS: INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT PLACES AND DIFFERENT DENSITIES

Aedes aegypti is an important vector in Brazil being the main vector of the dengue-fever. This paper employs survival curves to describe the time in days from larvae to adult forms of Aedes aegypti raised, individually and collectively, and compares it during winter and spring when positioned inside and outside a laboratory. The study was conducted in São Vicente, a coastal city in Southeastern Brazil. The lowest water temperature in winter and in spring was 20 °C and the highest was 26 °C in spring. Higher and more stable temperatures were measured in the intra compared to the peri in both seasons. Consequently, larvae positioned in the intra resulted in the lowest median time to develop in the individual and collective experiment (nine and ten days, respectively). At least 25% of the larvae positioned in the intra in the individual experiment in the spring took only seven days to reach adulthood. Sex ratios and the median time development by sex did not show significant differences. These results indicate that efforts to control Aedes aegypti must be continuous and directed mainly to prevent the intra-domiciliary sites that can be infested in a week in order to reduce the human-vector contact.

Human immune responses during schistosomiasis mansoni

Studies of immune responses as they occur in patients with schistosomiasis appear to progress relative to corrent technological advances, and to advance despite the understandable inability to pursue in vivo manipulations in this host/parasite system. Emphasis is most often placed on making immunological comparisons between such patient groups as reinfected/non-reinfected, intestinals/hepatosplenic, high/low intensities of infection, infected/uninfected within endemic areas, and those born of infected/uninfected mothers. Based on these types of comparisons, reasonable conjectures can be made regarding the immunological occurrences during this chronic exposure condition. Some consideration is now being given to the immune mechanisms of some of the observations made, and while some of these must then be carried back to experimental models for further manipulation-based analysis, new technological developments continue to assist in the field/bench ability to ask questions that might assist our understanding to a point where this knowledge can be applied to shaping developmental approaches to vaccine development and the goal of alleviating morbidity.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Rio Grande, RS, Brazil

We conducted a molecular epidemiological study to investigate HIV-1 strains in Rio Grande, southern Brazil, searching for an association with transmission mode and risk behavior. Patients (185) identified at an AIDS treatment reference Hospital, from 1994 to 1997, were included; from which 107 blood samples were obtained. Nested PCR was realized once for each sample; for amplified samples (69) HIV subtypes were classified using the heteroduplex mobility assay. Subtypes identified were B (75%), C (22%) and F (3%). All infections with C were diagnosed after 1994. Comparing patients with B and C, no differences were detected regarding demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics; survival analysis did not reveal differences in HIV to AIDS evolution. A higher proportion of injecting drug users, IDU (not significant, p<.07) was found among those with C. This suggests that C may have been introduced in this area through IDU, and is being spread, probably by their sexual partners, to persons with other risk practices.

Blood Pressure Variation Throughout Pregnancy According to Early Gestational BMI: A Brazilian Cohort

Background: The maternal cardiovascular system undergoes progressive adaptations throughout pregnancy, causing blood pressure fluctuations. However, no consensus has been established on its normal variation in uncomplicated pregnancies. Objective: To describe the variation in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels during pregnancy according to early pregnancy body mass index (BMI). Methods: SBP and DBP were measured during the first, second and third trimesters and at 30-45 days postpartum in a prospective cohort of 189 women aged 20-40 years. BMI (kg/m2) was measured up to the 13th gestational week and classified as normal-weight (<25.0) or excessive weight (≥25.0). Longitudinal linear mixed-effects models were used for statistical analysis. Results: A decrease in SBP and DBP was observed from the first to the second trimester (βSBP=-0.394; 95%CI: -0.600- -0.188 and βDBP=-0.617; 95%CI: -0.780- -0.454), as was an increase in SBP and DBP up to 30-45 postpartum days (βSBP=0.010; 95%CI: 0.006-0.014 and βDBP=0.015; 95%CI: 0.012-0.018). Women with excessive weight at early pregnancy showed higher mean SBP in all gestational trimesters, and higher mean DBP in the first and third trimesters. Excessive early pregnancy BMI was positively associated with prospective changes in SBP (βSBP=7.055; 95%CI: 4.499-9.610) and in DBP (βDBP=3.201; 95%CI: 1.136-5.266). Conclusion: SBP and DBP decreased from the first to the second trimester and then increased up to the postpartum period. Women with excessive early pregnancy BMI had higher SBP and DBP than their normal-weight counterparts throughout pregnancy, but not in the postpartum period.