Artificial neural network models for predicting 1-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures in China

The mortality rate of older patients with intertrochanteric fractures has been increasing with the aging of populations in China. The purpose of this study was: 1) to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) using clinical information to predict the 1-year mortality of elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures, and 2) to compare the ANN's predictive ability with that of logistic regression models. The ANN model was tested against actual outcomes of an intertrochanteric femoral fracture database in China. The ANN model was generated with eight clinical inputs and a single output. ANN's performance was compared with a logistic regression model created with the same inputs in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and discriminability. The study population was composed of 2150 patients (679 males and 1471 females): 1432 in the training group and 718 new patients in the testing group. The ANN model that had eight neurons in the hidden layer had the highest accuracies among the four ANN models: 92.46 and 85.79% in both training and testing datasets, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the automatically selected ANN model for both datasets were 0.901 (95%CI=0.814-0.988) and 0.869 (95%CI=0.748-0.990), higher than the 0.745 (95%CI=0.612-0.879) and 0.728 (95%CI=0.595-0.862) of the logistic regression model. The ANN model can be used for predicting 1-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures. It outperformed a logistic regression on multiple performance measures when given the same variables.

Mortality rate after open Roux-in-Y gastric bypass: a 10-year follow-up

The prevalence of obesity has increased to epidemic status worldwide. Thousands of morbidly obese individuals undergo bariatric surgery for sustained weight loss; however, mid- and long-term outcomes of this surgery are still uncertain. Our objective was to estimate the 10-year mortality rate, and determine risk factors associated with death in young morbidly obese adults who underwent bariatric surgery. All patients who underwent open Roux-in-Y gastric bypass surgery between 2001 and 2010, covered by an insurance company, were analyzed to determine possible associations between risk factors present at the time of surgery and deaths related and unrelated to the surgery. Among the 4344 patients included in the study, 79% were female with a median age of 34.9 years and median body mass index (BMI) of 42 kg/m2. The 30-day and 10-year mortality rates were 0.55 and 3.34%, respectively, and 53.7% of deaths were related to early or late complications following bariatric surgery. Among these, 42.7% of the deaths were due to sepsis and 24.3% to cardiovascular complications. Male gender, age ≥50 years, BMI ≥50 kg/m2, and hypertension significantly increased the hazard for all deaths (P<0.001). Age ≥50 years, BMI ≥50 kg/m2, and surgeon inexperience elevated the hazard of death from causes related to surgery. Male gender and age ≥50 years were the factors associated with increased mortality from death not related to surgery. The overall risk of death after bariatric surgery was quite low, and half of the deaths were related to the surgery. Older patients and superobese patients were at greater risk of surgery-related deaths, as were patients operated on by less experienced surgeons.

Elevated levels of plasma osteoprotegerin are associated with all-cause mortality risk and atherosclerosis in patients with stages 3 to 5 chronic kidney disease

Osteoprotegerin (OPG) regulates bone mass by inhibiting osteoclast differentiation and activation, and plays a role in vascular calcification. We evaluated the relationship between osteoprotegerin levels and inflammatory markers, atherosclerosis, and mortality in patients with stages 3-5 chronic kidney disease. A total of 145 subjects (median age 61 years, 61% men; 36 patients on hemodialysis, 55 patients on peritoneal dialysis, and 54 patients with stages 3-5 chronic kidney disease) were studied. Clinical characteristics, markers of mineral metabolism (including fibroblast growth factor-23 [FGF-23]) and inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP] and interleukin-6 [IL-6]), and the intima-media thickness (IMT) in the common carotid arteries were measured at baseline. Cardiac function was assessed by color tissue Doppler echocardiography. After 36 months follow-up, the survival rate by Kaplan-Meier analysis was significantly different according to OPG levels (χ2=14.33; P=0.002). Increased OPG levels were positively associated with IL-6 (r=0.38, P<0.001), FGF-23 (r=0.26, P<0.001) and hsCRP (r=0.0.24, P=0.003). In addition, OPG was positively associated with troponin I (r=0.54, P<0.001) and IMT (r=0.39, P<0.0001). Finally, in Cox analysis, only OPG (HR=1.07, 95%CI=1.02-1.13) and hsCRP (HR=1.02, 95%CI=1.01-1.04) were independently associated with increased risk of death. These results suggested that elevated levels of serum OPG might be associated with atherosclerosis and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Histidine-tryptophan-ketoglutarate solution decreases mortality and morbidity in high-risk patients with severe pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with complex congenital heart disease: an 11-year experience from a single institution

Cardioplegic reperfusion during a long term ischemic period interrupts cardiac surgery and also increases cellular edema due to repeated solution administration. We reviewed the clinical experiences on myocardial protection of a single perfusion with histidine-tryptophan-ketoglutarate (HTK) for high-risk patients with severe pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with complex congenital heart disease. This retrospective study included 101 high-risk patients undergoing arterial switch operation between March 2001 and July 2012. We divided the cohort into two groups: HTK group, myocardial protection was carried out with one single perfusion with HTK solution; and St group, myocardial protection with conventional St. Thomas' crystalloid cardioplegic solution. The duration of cardiopulmonary bypass did not differ between the two groups. The mortality, morbidity, ICU stay, post-operative hospitalization time, and number of transfusions in HTK group were lower than those in St group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that HTK is a statistically significant independent predictor of decreased early mortality and morbidity (P<0.05). In conclusion, HTK solution seems to be an effective and safe alternative to St. Thomas' solution for cardioplegic reperfusion in high-risk patients with complex congenital heart disease.

Early initiation of dialysis: mortality and renal function recovery in acute kidney injury patients

INTRODUCTION: The decision of when to start dialysis in Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) patients with overt uremia is strongly established, however, when blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels is < 100 mg/dL the timing of initiation of dialysis remains uncertain. Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess mortality and renal function recovery AKI patients started on dialysis at different BUN levels. METHODS: This was a retrospective study performed at Medical School Hospital, São Paulo, Brazil, enrolling 86 patients underwent to dialysis. RESULTS: Dialysis was started when BUN < 75 mg/dl in 23 patients (Group I) and BUN > 75 mg/dl in 63 patients (Group II). Hypervolemia and mortality were higher in Group I than in Group II (65.2% vs. 14.3% - p < 0.05, 39.1% vs. 68.9%- p < 0.05, respectively). Among survivors, the rate of renal function recovery was higher in Group I (71.4% and 36.8%, respectively - p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that sepsis, age > 60 years, peritoneal dialysis and BUN > 75 mg/dl at dialysis initiation were independently related with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Lower mortality and higher renal function recovery rates were associated with early dialysis initiated at lower BUN leves in AKI patients.

Inverse association between serum creatinine and mortality in acute kidney injury

Introduction: Sepsis is a leading precipitant of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and is associated with a high mortality rate. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the risk factors for dialysis and mortality in a cohort of AKI patients of predominantly septic etiology. Methods: Adult patients from an ICU for whom nephrology consultation was requested were included. End-stage chronic renal failure and kidney transplant patients were excluded. Results: 114 patients were followed. Most had sepsis (84%), AKIN stage 3 (69%) and oliguria (62%) at first consultation. Dialysis was performed in 66% and overall mortality was 70%. Median serum creatinine in survivors and non-survivors was 3.95 mg/dl (2.63 - 5.28) and 2.75 mg/dl (1.81 - 3.69), respectively. In the multivariable models, oliguria and serum urea were positively associated with dialysis; otherwise, a lower serum creatinine at first consultation was independently associated with higher mortality. Conclusion: In a cohort of septic AKI, oliguria and serum urea were the main indications for dialysis. We also described an inverse association between serum creatinine and mortality. Potential explanations for this finding include: delay in diagnosis, fluid overload with hemodilution of serum creatinine or poor nutritional status. This finding may also help to explain the low discriminative power of general severity scores - that assign higher risks to higher creatinine levels - in septic AKI patients.

Early changes in serum albumin: impact on 2-year mortality in incident hemodialysis patients

AbstractIntroduction/objective:We evaluated the predictability of early changes in serum albumin (sAlb) on the two-year mortality of incident hemodialysis patients.Methods:Observational, longitudinal retrospective study using the database of Fresenius Medical Care of Latin America. Adult patients starting dialysis from January/2000 to June/2004, from 25 centers were included. Changes in sAlb during the first 3 months on hemodialysis were used as the main predictor. The outcome was death from any cause.Results:1,679 incident patients were included. They were 52 ± 15 years old, 58.7% male and 21.5% diabetic, with a median sAlb of 38 g/L (bromocresol green). 923 patients had sAlb < 38 g/L (Low sAlb Group) and 756 ones had sAlb > 38.0 g/L (Adequate sAlb Group). The mortality was significantly higher in Low sAlb Group (17% vs. 11%, p < 0.001). Early changes in sAlb significantly affected two-year mortality. Factoring the Kaplan Meier curve of Low sAlb Group by the presence of an increase in sAlb uncovered of a statistically significant difference in mortality favoring the ones whose sAlb went up (19% vs. 15%, p = 0.043). Differently, patients from Adequate sAlb Group with a decrease in their sAlb had a statistically higher mortality rate (13% vs. 8%, p = 0.029).Conclusions:Early sAlb changes showed a significant predictive power on mortality at 2 years in incident hemodialysis patients. Those with low initial sAlb may have a better prognosis if their sAlb rises. In contrast, patients with satisfactory initial levels can have a worsening of their prognosis in the case of an early reduction in sAlb.