National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

Exchange rate pass-through inflation and wage differentials in late-industrializing economies: the Mexican case

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through inflation, and the wage bargaining process, in a developing economy in which firms' market power is largely dependent on technical progress embodied in imported intermediates and capital goods. It develops a heterodox model of income distribution, based on theoretical contributions from Latin American structuralists, labor market segmentationists and post-Keynesian writers, and it presents supportive empirical evidence from the Mexican economy.

The industrial equilibrium exchange rate in Brazil: an estimation

This paper presents a methodology for calculating the industrial equilibrium exchange rate, which is defined as the one enabling exporters of state-of-the-art manufactured goods to be competitive abroad. The first section highlights the causes and problems of overvalued exchange rates, particularly the Dutch disease issue, which is neutralized when the exchange rate strikes the industrial equilibrium level. This level is defined by the ratio between the unit labor cost in the country under consideration and in competing countries. Finally, the evolution of this exchange rate in the Brazilian economy is estimated.

The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch disease

This paper revisits the original (2008) paper on the Dutch disease, which defined it by the existence of two exchange rate equilibriums (the current and the industrial exchange rate equilibriums). Its novelty is in claiming that, as we have a value and a market price for each good or service, we also have a value and a market price for foreign money. The value is the cost plus reasonable profit corresponding to the exchange rate that makes competitive the country's competent business enterprises; the nominal exchange rates floats around the value according to the demand and supply of foreign money. This basic distinction of the exchange rate in terms of value and in terms of price allows us to understand that the two equilibriums are defined in value terms, and opens room for a clear distinction of the policies that affect the value from the ones that affect the market price of the exchange rate.

Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

Institutions, credibility and crisis: the inconsistencies of Argentine exchange rate policy (1991-2006)

The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.

Não há dente de coelho no problema da tradução radical

O trabalho consiste em uma tentativa de refutação do princípio quineano da indeterminação da tradução radical. A estrutura do argumento é a seguinte. A demonstração do princípio no texto de Quine assenta-se sobre certa concepção do processo de tradução radical. Esta concepção só se sustenta se são adotadas certas pressuposições a respeito da natureza da linguagem e dos falantes. Entretanto, se estas pressuposições são adotadas, não há razão para não se aceitarem também outras pressuposições - as quais invalidam a demonstração de Quine.

O conceito de mal radical

A noção de mal radical aparece em Kant no contexto da discussão da religião nos limites da simples razão e busca dar conta da complexa relação entre o respeito pela lei moral e o amor-próprio na definição do móbil para a ação. Na busca por identificar o fundamento da propensão para o mal no homem, Kant se vê diante da dificuldade de ter de articular natureza e liberdade, e ainda que a noção de mal radical possa conservar algumas ambigüidades, permite conceber uma noção de responsabilidade compatível com uma inata propensão para o mal. Neste texto busco explicitar alguns passos fundamentais na construção do conceito por Kant.

La vida humana como principio interpretativo radical en la filosofía de Ortega y Gasset

En este artículo presentamos el concepto de vida humana como texto eterno en el pensamiento de Ortega y sus consecuencias para el problema de la interpretación. La filosofía de la razón vital de Ortega se fundamenta en el concepto de vida humana como realidad radical y principio interpretativo universal, y por esta razón se presenta desde el principio como una filosofía hermenéutica de la vida y no como una reducción hacia la conciencia trascendental. Esta hermenéutica se practica especialmente en el ámbito del arte. Pero para Ortega todo texto es hermenéutico y necesita por tanto la interpretación, porque ningún texto posee en sí mismo su verdad.

El escepticismo radical de Pierre Gassendi contra la filosofía natural de los aristotélicos

Este artículo tiene como objetivo dar cuenta del escepticismo radical de Pierre Gassendi propuesto en el Exercitationes paradoxicae Adversus Aristoteleos (Disertaciones paradójicas contra los aristotélicos). Para dar cuenta de ello nuestro artículo se divide en tres momentos: Primero, damos cuenta de la estructura de la obra; segundo, se presentan los argumentos centrales propuestos por Gassendi para comprender su actitud crítica al escolasticismo. Y tercero, se muestra la crítica que realiza a la lógica aristotélica. La idea fundamental que sostenemos en este trabajo es que la actitud crítica y de libre pensador que caracterizó a Gassendi tuvo su origen directo en la actitud escéptica. Además, revisar su obra de juventud y su actitud filosófica nos permite comprender una parte importante del alcance del escepticismo en la reforma de la filosofía natural del siglo XVII.