165 resultados para Failure Scenarios
Resumo:
Aedes albopictus was responsible for transmission in the first outbreak of chikungunya (CHIK) on La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, in 2005-2006. The magnitude of the outbreak on this island, which had been free of arboviral diseases for over 30 years, as well as the efficiency of Ae. albopictus as the main vector, raises questions about the maintenance of the CHIK virus (CHIKV) through vertical transmission mechanisms. Few specimens collected from the field as larvae were found to be infected. In this study, Ae. albopictus originating from La Réunion were orally infected with a blood-meal containing 10(8) pfu/mL of the CHIKV epidemic strain (CHIKV 06.21). Eggs from the first and second gonotrophic cycles were collected and raised to the adult stage. The infectious status of the progeny was checked (i) by immunofluorescence on head squashes of individual mosquitoes to detect the presence of viral particles or (ii) by quantitative RT-PCR on mosquito pools to detect viral RNA. We analysed a total of 1,675 specimens from the first gonotrophic cycle and 1,709 from the second gonotrophic cycle without detecting any viral particles or viral RNA. These laboratory results are compared to field records.
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Rhodnius prolixus, a blood-sucking triatomine with domiciliary anthropophilic habits, is the main vector of Chagas disease. The current paradigm of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in Columbia includes a sylvatic and domiciliary cycle co-existing with domestic and sylvatic populations of reservoirs. The aim of this study is to evaluate the population densities and relative abundance of triatomines and mammals that may be involved in the sylvatic cycle of Chagas disease to clarify the epidemiological scenario in an endemic area in the province of Casanare. Insect vectors on Attalea butyracea palms were captured using both manual searches and bait traps. The capture of mammals was performed using Sherman and Tomahawk traps. We report an infestation index of 88.5% in 148 palms and an index of T. cruzi natural infection of 60.2% in 269 dissected insects and 11.9% in 160 captured mammals. High population densities of triatomines were observed in the sylvatic environment and there was a high relative abundance of reservoirs in the area, suggesting a stable enzootic cycle. We found no evidence of insect domiciliation. Taken together, these observations suggest that eco-epidemiological factors shape the transmission dynamics of T. cruzi, creating diverse scenarios of disease transmission.
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This study was conducted to analyse the course and the outcome of the liver disease in the co-infected animals in order to evaluate a possible synergic effect of human parvovirus B19 (B19V) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) co-infection. Nine adult cynomolgus monkeys were inoculated with serum obtained from a fatal case of B19V infection and/or a faecal suspension of acute HAV. The presence of specific antibodies to HAV and B19V, liver enzyme levels, viraemia, haematological changes, and necroinflammatory liver lesions were used for monitoring the infections. Seroconversion was confirmed in all infected groups. A similar pattern of B19V infection to human disease was observed, which was characterised by high and persistent viraemia in association with reticulocytopenia and mild to moderate anaemia during the period of investigation (59 days). Additionally, the intranuclear inclusion bodies were observed in pro-erythroblast cell from an infected cynomolgus and B19V Ag in hepatocytes. The erythroid hypoplasia and decrease in lymphocyte counts were more evident in the co-infected group. The present results demonstrated, for the first time, the susceptibility of cynomolgus to B19V infection, but it did not show a worsening of liver histopathology in the co-infected group.
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Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.
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This study evaluated the acceptability, ceiling/floor effects, and the reliability of the instrument for measuring the Impact of the Disease on the Daily Life of Patients with Valvular Disease (IDCV) when applied to 135 patients with heart failure (HF). Acceptability was evaluated by the percentage of unanswered items and by the proportion of patients who responded to all items; the ceiling/floor effects by the percentage of patients who scored in the top of 10% best and worst results of the scale, respectively. Reliability was estimated by internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient) and stability of the measure (intraclass correlation coefficient - ICC). All patients responded to all items. Ceiling/floor effects evidenced were of moderate magnitude. The Cronbach's alpha was satisfactory for the majority of the domains and ICC> 0.90 in all the domains. The IDCV proved to be an easy to understand questionnaire, with evidence of reliability in patients with HF.
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This study aimed at assessing beliefs about the benefits and barriers to adherence to daily self-monitoring of weight/edema in patients with heart failure, and the influence of demographic and clinical variables on those beliefs. 105 patients were interviewed. The mean of the subscales Benefits and Barriers were 20.2 (± 5.7) and 30.1 (±7.1), respectively. Patients perceived that adherence to daily self-monitoring of weight/edema could keep them healthy, improve their quality of life and decrease the chances of readmission. Approximately half of patients (46.7%) reported forgetting this measure. Those who controlled weight once a month were more likely to have barriers to adherence (OR= 6.6; IC 95% 1.9-13.8; p=0.01), showing this measure to be the main factor related to perceived barriers. Education in health can contribute with the development of strategies aimed at lowering barriers and increasing benefits of this control.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the self-care behaviors according to gender, the symptoms of depression and sense of coherence and compare the measurements of depression and sense of coherence according to gender. METHOD A correlational, cross-sectional study that investigated 132 patients with decompensated heart failure (HF). Data were collected through interviews and consultation to medical records, and analyzed using the chi-square and the Student's t tests with significance level of 0.05. Participants were 75 men and 57 women, aged 63.2 years on average (SD = 13.8). RESULTS No differences in self-care behavior by gender were found, except for rest after physical activity (p = 0.017). Patients who practiced physical activity showed fewer symptoms of depression (p<0.001). There were no differences in sense of coherence according to self-care behavior and gender. Women had more symptoms of depression than men (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION Special attention should be given to women with HF considering self-care and depressive symptoms.
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OBJECTIVE Identify resources that support learning mediated by technology in the field of neonatal nursing. METHOD Systematic review with searches conducted in MEDLINE, LILACS and SciELO. Titles and abstracts were independently evaluated by two experts. RESULTS Of the 2,051 references, 203 full-text articles were analyzed, resulting in the inclusion of nine studies on semiotics and semiology, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, general aspects of neonatal care, diagnostic reasoning and assessment of pain. Only two articles addressed the development of educational strategies and seven papers described the assessment of these strategies by experts and/or users. CONCLUSION Distance education is an important resource for education, and its improvement and updating, and it particularly adds advantages for neonatal nursing by approximating teaching and real-life situations and by minimizing the exposure of newborns for teaching purposes. The lack of educational initiatives mediated by technology suggests the need for the development, evaluation and dissemination of educational resources focused on nursing care of newborns and their families.
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AbstractOBJECTIVEIdentify whether Heart Failure (HF) is a predictor of functional dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL) in hospitalized elderly.METHODSWe investigated medical records and assessed dependence to BADL (by the Katz Index) of 100 elderly admitted to a geriatric ward of a university hospital. In order to verify if HF is a predictor of functional dependence, linear regression analyzes were performed.RESULTSThe prevalence of HF was 21%; 95% of them were dependent for BADLs. Bathing was the most committed ADL. HF is a predictor of dependence in hospitalized elderlies, increasing the chance of functional decline by 5 times (95% CI, 0.94-94.48), the chance of functional deterioration by 3.5 times (95% CI, 1.28-11.66; p <0.02) and reducing 0.79 points in the Katz Index score (p <0.05).CONCLUSIONHF is a dependency predictor of ADL in hospitalized elderly, who tend to be more dependent, especially for bathing.
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The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.
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The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.
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The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of elevated temperature scenarios on leaf development of potato in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Leaf appearance was estimated using a multiplicative model that has a non-linear temperature response function which calculates the daily leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and the accumulated number of leaves (LN) from crop emergence to the appearance of the upper last leaf. Leaf appearance was estimated during 100 years in the following scenarios: current climate, +1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C e +5 °C. The LAR model was estimated with coefficients of the Asterix cultivar in five emergence dates and in two growing seasons (Fall and Spring). Variable of interest was the duration (days) of the crop emergence to the appearance of the final leaf number (EM-FLN) phase. Statistical analysis was performed assuming a three-factorial experiment, with main effects being climate scenarios, growing seasons, and emergence dates in a completely randomized design using years (one hundred) as replications. The results showed that warmer scenarios lead to an increase, in the fall, and a decrease, in the spring growing season, in the duration of the leaf appearance phase, indicating high vulnerability and complexity of the response of potato crop grown in a Subtropical environment to climate change.