Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Anaplasma marginale infection in cattle from south-western Amazonia

The present study provides the first epidemiological data regarding infection by Anaplasma marginale in cattle reared in south-western Brazilian Amazonia. One simple procedure was adapted for the extraction of DNA from blood clots collected in seven microregions of Rondônia State and two mesoregions of Acre State. PCR method was used to asses the frequency of A. marginale infections in 4 to12-month-old cattle. The cattle infection was investigated by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using the specific primer "msp5" for A. marginale. The DNA amplifications revealed that the mean frequency of A. marginale infection was 98.6% (1,627/1,650) in samples from Rondonia, and 92.87% (208/225) in samples from Acre. The high frequency of A. marginale infections in 4 to 12-month-old cattle indicate a situation of enzootic stability in the studied areas and are comparable to those detected by immunodiagnosis in different endemic regions in Brazil. The DNA extraction of clotted blood method described here can be used for epidemiological studies on anaplasmosis and other bovine hemoparasites.

Evaluation of PCR and multiplex PCR in relation to nested PCR for diagnosing Theileria equi

Conventional PCR (PCRTeq) for diagnosing Theileria equi and multiplex PCR (M/PCRTeq-Bc) for diagnosing T. equi and Babesia caballi were comparatively evaluated with nested PCR (N/PCR-Teq) for diagnosing equine piroplasmosis. In DNA sensitivity determinations, in multiple dilutions of equine blood that had tested positive for T. equi, PCR-Teq and N/PCR-Teq detected hemoparasite DNA in the larger dilutions (1:128), but did not differ significantly from the M/PCRTeq-Bc (1:64). In analyses on equine serum tested by ELISA, there was high agreement between this serological test and PCR-Teq (k = 0.780) and moderate agreement with N/PCR-Teq (k = 0.562) and M/PCRTeq-Bc (k = 0.488). PCR-Teq found a higher frequency of T. equi both in extensively and intensively reared horses, but this was not significant in relation to N/PCR-Teq (P>0.05), and both PCRs indicated that there was an endemic situation regarding T. equi in the population of horses of this sample. PCR-Teq was only significantly different from M/PCR-Teq-Bc (P<0.05). PCR-Teq presented high sensitivity and specificity, comparable to N/PCR-Teq, but with the advantage of higher speed in obtaining results and lower costs and risks of laboratory contamination. This accredits PCR-Teq for epidemiological studies and for determinations on affected horses.

Lack of a relationship between serum ferritin levels and coronary atherosclerosis evaluated by coronary arteriography

Many clinical and epidemiological studies have demonstrated the relationship between serum ferritin and ischemic heart disease. In the present study we evaluated the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD) and serum ferritin levels in patients submitted to coronary arteriography. We evaluated 307 patients (210 (68.7%) males; median age: 60 years) who were submitted to coronary angiography, measurement of serum ferritin and identification of clinical events of ischemic heart disease. Serum ferritin is reported as quartiles. Ninety-six patients (31.27%) had normal coronary angiography (group 1) and 211 (68.73%) had coronary heart disease (group 2). Of the patients with CHD, 61 (28.9%) had serum ferritin levels higher than 194 ng/ml (4th quartile), as opposed to only 14 (14.58%) of those without CHD (P = 0.0067). In the 2nd quartile, 39 patients (18.48%) had CHD, while 35 patients (36.46%) had normal coronary arteries (P = 0.00064). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that the difference between groups was not statistically significant (P = 0.33). We conclude that there is no independent relationship between coronary heart disease and increased levels of serum ferritin.

Neuroprotection by flavonoids

The high morbidity, high socioeconomic costs and lack of specific treatments are key factors that define the relevance of brain pathology for human health and the importance of research on neuronal protective agents. Epidemiological studies have shown beneficial effects of flavonoids on arteriosclerosis-related pathology in general and neurodegeneration in particular. Flavonoids can protect the brain by their ability to modulate intracellular signals promoting cellular survival. Quercetin and structurally related flavonoids (myricetin, fisetin, luteolin) showed a marked cytoprotective capacity in in vitro experimental conditions in models of predominantly apoptotic death such as that induced by medium concentrations (200 µM) of H2O2 added to PC12 cells in culture. Nevertheless, quercetin did not protect substantia nigra neurons in vivo from an oxidative insult (6-hydroxydopamine), probably due to difficulties in crossing the blood-brain barrier. On the other hand, treatment of permanent focal ischemia with a lecithin/quercetin preparation decreased lesion volume, showing that preparations that help to cross the blood-brain barrier may be critical for the expression of the effects of flavonoids on the brain. The hypothesis is advanced that a group of quercetin-related flavonoids could become lead molecules for the development of neuroprotective compounds with multitarget anti-ischemic effects.

Wine, alcohol and atherosclerosis: clinical evidences and mechanisms

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease which may cause obstructions of the coronary, cerebral and peripheral arteries. It is typically multifactorial, most often dependent on risk factors such as hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, sedentarism, and obesity. It is the single main cause of death in most developed countries due to myocardial infarction, angina, sudden death, and heart failure. Several epidemiological studies suggest that moderate alcohol intake, especially red wine, decrease cardiac mortality due to atherosclerosis. The alcohol effect is described by a J curve, suggesting that moderate drinkers may benefit while abstainers and heavy drinkers are at higher risk. Experimental studies indicate that most beneficial effects of drinking are attributable to flavonoids that are present in red wine, purple grape juice and several fruits and vegetables. The mechanisms include antiplatelet actions, increases in high-density lipoprotein, antioxidation, reduced endothelin-1 production, and increased endothelial nitric oxide synthase expression which causes augmented nitric oxide production by endothelial cells. These findings lead to the concept that moderate red wine drinking, in the absence of contraindications, may be beneficial to patients who are at risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events. Moreover, a diet based on fruits and vegetables containing flavonoids may be even more beneficial.

Infection with human papillomaviruses of sexual partners of women having cervical intraepithelial neoplasia

Epidemiological studies show that human papillomaviruses (HPV) are strongly related to cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasias (CIN). Unlike the case for women, there are no consistent data on the natural history of HPV in the male population even though these viruses are prevalent in males. We carried out a prospective study to assess the prevalence of HPV in males as well as the factors that determine such infections in 99 male sexual partners of women with CIN. The genitalia of the males were physically examined and subjected to peniscopy for the collection of scrapings which were subjected to the polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism to detect HPV. Of the 99 males sampled, 54 (54.5%) were positive for HPV DNA, 24% of whom presented normal peniscopy, 28% presented evident clinical lesions and 48% isolated lesions consistent with subclinical infection. In the HPV-negative group, 53% showed normal peniscopy, 4% presented evident clinical lesions and 42% isolated lesions consistent with subclinical infection. The study detected a statistically significant association (P < 0.02, Pearson chi-square test) between HPV infection and both the mean number of sexual partners which a male had during his life and the mean number of sexual partners in the year prior to testing. Viral types 6 and 11 were most frequently encountered. The study shows that infection with HPV was frequent in male sexual partners of women with CIN.

Lycopene and ß-carotene protect in vivo iron-induced oxidative stress damage in rat prostate

It has been suggested that iron overload may be carcinogenic. In the present study, we evaluated the effect of plasma and prostate carotenoid concentration on oxidative DNA damage in 12-week-old Wistar rats treated with intraperitoneal (ip) ferric nitrilotriacetate (Fe-NTA) (10 mg Fe/kg). Plasma ß-carotene and lycopene concentrations were measured as a function of time after ip injection of carotenoids (10 mg kg-1 day-1 ß-carotene or lycopene) in rats. The highest total plasma concentration was reached 3 and 6 h after ip injection of lycopene or ß-carotene, respectively. After 5 days of carotenoid treatment, lycopene and ß-carotene were present in the 0.10-0.51 nmol/g wet tissue range in the prostate. Using a sensitive method to detected 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) by HPLC/EC, the level of 8-oxodGuo in rat prostate DNA was significantly higher (6.3 ± 0.6 residues/10(6) dGuo) 3 h after Fe-NTA injection compared with control rats (1.7 ± 0.3 residues/10(6) dGuo). Rats supplemented with lycopene or ß-carotene for 5 days prior to Fe-NTA treatment showed a reduction of about 70% in 8-oxodGuo levels to almost control levels. Compared with control rats, the prostate of Fe-NTA-treated animals showed a 78% increase in malondialdehyde accumulation. Lycopene or ß-carotene pre-treatment almost completely prevented lipid damage. Epidemiological studies have suggested a lower risk of prostate cancer in men reporting a higher consumption of tomato products. However, before associating this effect with tomato sauce constituents, more information is required. The results described here may contribute to the understanding of the protective effects of carotenoids against iron-induced oxidative stress.

Depressive symptoms and C-reactive protein in a Brazilian urban community

Psychological depression is an independent risk factor for coronary artery disease. C-reactive protein has been implicated as a mediator of the effect of psychological depression. Several studies have found that individuals, especially men, who report higher levels of psychological depression also have higher levels of C-reactive protein. The current study was undertaken to replicate these results in a Brazilian population, in which there is a much wider range of variation in both background characteristics (such as socioeconomic status) and coronary artery disease risk factors. A sample of 271 individuals was interviewed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. Fasting blood samples were obtained and evaluated for C-reactive protein (assessed by a turbidimetric immunoassay using a Dade Behring kit) analysis in a subsample (N = 258) of individuals. The mean ± SD C-reactive protein for the entire sample was 0.43 ± 0.44, with 0.42 ± 0.48 for men and 0.43 ± 0.42 mg/L for women. Data were analyzed using multiple regression analysis, controlling for age, sex, body mass index, socioeconomic status, tobacco use, and both total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Higher reported depressive symptoms were correlated with higher C-reactive protein for men (partial r = 0.298, P = 0.004) and with lower C-reactive protein for women (partial r = -0.154, P = 0.059). The differences in the associations for men and women could be a result of differential effects of sex hormones on stress reactivity and immune response. On the other hand, this difference in the associations may be related to gender differences in the disclosure of emotion and the effect that self-disclosure has on physical health and immune response.

Implications of infectious diseases and the adrenal hypothesis for the etiology of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Acute leukemia is the most frequent cancer in children. Recently, a new hypothesis was proposed for the pathogenesis of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The so-called "adrenal hypothesis" emphasized the role of endogenous cortisol in the etiology of B-cell precursor ALL. The incidence peak of ALL in children between 3 to 5 years of age has been well documented and is consistent with this view. The adrenal hypothesis proposes that the risk of childhood B-cell precursor ALL is reduced when early childhood infections induce qualitative and quantitative changes in the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis. It suggests that the increased plasma cortisol levels would be sufficient to eliminate all clonal leukemic cells originating during fetal life. Because Brazil is a continental and tropical country, the exposure to infections is diversified with endemic viral and regionally non-viral infections, with some characteristics that support the recent adrenal hypothesis. Here we discuss this new hypothesis in terms of data from epidemiological studies and the possible implications of the diversity of infections occurring in Brazilian children.

Correlation between sodium and potassium excretion in 24- and 12-h urine samples

Low-sodium and high-potassium diets have been recommended as an adjunct to prevention and treatment of hypertension. Analysis of these nutrients in 24-h urine has been considered the reference method to estimate daily intake of these minerals. However, 24-h urine collection is difficult in epidemiological studies, since urine must be collected and stored in job environments. Therefore, strategies for shorter durations of urine collection at home have been proposed. We have previously reported that collecting urine during a 12-h period (overnight) is more feasible and that creatinine clearance correlated strongly with that detected in 24-h samples. In the present study, we collected urine for 24 h divided into two 12-h periods (from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm and from 7:00 pm to 7:00 am next day). A sample of 109 apparently healthy volunteers aged 30 to 74 years of both genders working in a University institution was investigated. Subjects with previous myocardial infarction, stroke, renal insufficiency, and pregnant women were not included. Significant (P < 0.001) Spearman correlation coefficients (r s) were found between the total amount of sodium and potassium excreted in the urine collected at night and in the 24-h period (r s = 0.76 and 0.74, respectively). Additionally, the 12-h sodium and potassium excretions (means ± SD, 95% confidence interval) corresponded to 47.3 ± 11.2%, 95%CI = 45.3-49.3, and 39.3 ± 4.6%, 95%CI = 37.3-41.3, respectively, of the 24-h excretion of these ions. Therefore, these findings support the assumption that 12-h urine collected at night can be used as a reliable tool to estimate 24-h intake/excretion of sodium and potassium.

Studies on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and anthropic environment: 9- Synanthropy and epidemiological vector role of Aedes scapularis in South-Eastern Brazil

Behaviour comparisons of Aedes scapularis and Ae. serratus are presented. Results were obtained by sampling Aedes adult mosquitoes at several places in the rural anthropic environment in the Ribeira Valley region of S. Paulo State, Brazil. Aedes dominance was shared by those two species, but Ae. scapularis Sshowed a clear tendency to frequent the modified environment, while Ae. serratus was to be found in the more preserved ones, here represented by the vestigial patchy forests. Regarding the open cultivated land and the dwelling environments, Ae. scapularis preponderates. Considering the regional developmental phases, this mosquito showed a remarkable increase in the modified environment differently from Ae. serratus that underwent a considerable decrease in migrating from the forest to the anthropic environment. As a consequence of these results it is reasonable to conclude that Ae. scapularis may be considered as an epidemiologically efficient vector and that it quite probably played this role in the Rocio encephalitis and other arbovirus epidemics.

Studies on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and anthropic environment: 4 - Survey of resting adults and synanthropic behaviour in South-Eastern, Brazil

Resting adults Culicidae were collected from January 1992 through January 1993 in several habitats of the Ribeira Valley region. The diversity of species found among them suggested that the vegetation remaining within human settlements favored the survival and the population increase of some mosquitoes. Among there are: Ae. scapularis, Ae. serratus, Cx. (Culex), Cx. nigripalpus and Cx. (Melanoconion) such as Cx. ribeirensis. That preservation role may be attributed to the rearing of livestock and the consequent increase in the number of blood sources. These species may be classified as hemisynanthropes and Cx. oedipus apparently evolving to the eusynanthropic status. On the other hand, An. cruzii showed an asynanthropic behaviour, with a low degree of survival in the modified human environment. Epidemiological implications of the data are mentioned.

Studies on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and anthropic environment: 6 - Breeding in empty conditions of rice fields in South-Eastern Brazil

Studies on culicid breeding in empty rice fields were carried out during the cultivation cycle from May to November 1993. This period corresponded to stages 1 and 2, when empty conditions prevailed. Breeding occurred in stage 1 and the first part of stage 2, corresponding respectively to fallow uncultivated and ploughing situations. No breeding was found to take place during the second part of stage 2 when transient floods and harrowing occurred. The predominant species were Aedes scapularis, Culex nigripalpus and Cx. mollis. The Pilosus Group of Culex (Melanoconion) was found at lower densities. Some epidemiological considerations are presented.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.