199 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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In the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, localized cutaneous leishmaniasis (LCL) caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana is a typical wild zoonosis restricted to the forest, and humans are only accidentally involved. The transmission of L. (L.) mexicana has been related to the patient's occupation: "chicleros"(gum collectors) and agricultural workers. The objective of this study was to document L. (L.) mexicana seasonally of transmission in endemic areas of LCL in the state of Campeche, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The timing of incidence of LCL in humans during 1993-1994, as well as the rate and time of infection in rodents and sand flies between February 1993 and March 1995 were analyzed. Rodents and sand flies were found infected between November and March, when men carried out their field activities and are exposed. Based on results analyzed, it is concluded that L. (L.) mexicana in the endemic area of LCL in the state of Campeche, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, presents a seasonal transmission restricted to the months of November to March. The knowledge of the timing of the transmission cycle in an endemic area of leishmaniasis is very important because intervention measures on the high-risk focus and population might be restricted.

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In Buenos Aires, the most crowded city of Argentina, there is a potential risk of dengue virus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti during late summer. The temporal patterns of oviposition activity and abundance of breeding sites of this vector were studied in two cemeteries of the city. Between September 1998 and August 1999, we examined 142 ovitraps weekly and a total of 18,010 water-filled containers. Both study areas showed remarkable differences in the percentages of positive ovitraps (19% vs 8%) and breeding sites (18% vs 1%), but similar temporal abundance patterns. The percentage of breeding sites was higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter, and the percentage of positive ovitraps was higher in summer than in the other three seasons. Immatures were recorded from the first week of October to the second week of July, and oviposition activity from the third week of October until the end of April. In both cemeteries and with both methodologies the highest infestation levels were registered in March (ovitraps: 41.8% and 20.6%, breeding sites: 39.2% and 3.4%). These highest abundances took place after several months with mean temperatures above 20ºC and accumulated rainfalls above 150 mm. A sharp decline in oviposition activity was observed when monthly mean temperature decreased to 16.5ºC, and no eggs were found below 14.8ºC. Seasonal fluctuation of Ae. aegypti abundances in mid-latitudes like Buenos Aires would allow reduction of the egg mosquito population through the elimination of containers during the coldest months, which are free of adults.

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Preliminary studies were carried out to investigate the role of filarial specific antibodies, raised in an animal model against the filarial parasite, Brugia malayi (sub-periodic), in blocking their early development in an experimental mosquito host, Aedes aegypti (Liverpool strain). In order to generate filarial specific antibodies, Mongolian gerbils, Meriones unguiculatus, were immunized either with live microfilariae (mf) of B. malayi or their homogenate. Mf were harvested from the peritoneal cavity of Mongolian gerbils with patent infection of B. malayi and fed to A. aegypti along with the blood from immunized animals. Development of the parasite in infected mosquitoes was monitored until they reached infective stage larvae (L3). Fewer number of parasites developed to first stage (L1) and subsequently to L2 and L3 in mosquitoes fed with blood of immunized animals, when compared to those fed with blood of control animals. The results thus indicated that filarial parasite specific antibodies present in the blood of the immunized animals resulted in the reduction of number of larvae of B. malayi developing in the mosquito host.

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Molluscides have been used as one of the strategies to control schistosomiasis. Many plant extracts with molluscidal effects have been tested, but the action of the latex of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii is considered the most promising because it meets the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). The objective of this study was to determine the lethal dose and identify the effects of the different doses of latex of E. splendens var. hislopii on the physiology of Biomphalaria glabrata submitted to treatment for 24 h. The concentrations of glucose, uric acid and total proteins in the hemolymph and of glycogen in the digestive gland and cephalopodal mass were determined. The LD50 value was 1 mg/l. The highest escape index was found to be at a concentration of 0.6 mg/l. The results showed that the latex of E. splendens var. hislopii caused a sharp reduction in the reserves of glycogen in the digestive gland and elevation of the protein content in the hemolymph of B. glabrata.

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Lymphatic filariasis caused by nematode parasites Wuchereria bancrofti or Brugia malayi is a spectral disease and produces wide range of immune responses and varying levels ofmicrofilaraemia in infected individuals. The relationship between the immune response of host and the developmental stage of the parasite as well as the microfilariae (mf) density and specific location of the adult worms is yet to be understood. As an experimental model, B. malayi adapted in the experimental animal Mastomys coucha has been used widely for various studies in filariasis. The present study was to assess microfilaraemia as well as the humoral immune response of M. coucha during various stages of B. malayi development and their localization in different organs. The result showed that the density of mf in the circulating blood of the experimental animal depended upon the number of female worms as well as the location and co-existence of male and female worms. The mf density in the blood increased with the increase in the number of females. The clearance of inoculated infective stage (L3) or single sex infection or segregation of male and female to different organs of infected host resulted in amicrofilaraemic condition. With respect to antibody response, those animals cleared L3 after inoculation and those with adult worm as well as mf showed low antibody levels. But those with developmental fourth stage and/or adult worms without mf showed significantly higher antibody levels.

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Malaria control has been directed towards regional actions where more detailed knowledge of local determinants of transmission is of primary importance. This is a short report on range distribution and biting indices for Anopheles darlingi and An. albitarsis during the dry and rainy season that follows river level variation in a savanna/alluvial forest malaria system area in the Northern Amazon Basin. Distribution range and adult biting indices were at their highest during the rainy season for both An. darlingi and An. albitarsis. During the rainy season the neighboring alluvial forest was extensively flooded. This coincided with highest rates in malaria transmission with case clustering near the river. As the river receded, anopheline distribution range and density decreased. This decrease in distribution and density corresponded to a malaria decrease in the near area. An exponential regression function was derived to permit estimations of An. darlingi distribution over specified distances. Anopheline spatio-temporal variations lead to uneven malaria case distribution and are of important implications for control strategies.

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Triatoma mexicana was described by Herrich-Schaeffer in 1848. In 1940, a male specimen was found in Hidalgo. In 1970, this species was recorded in the state of Queretaro. Later, it was registered in Guanajuato and San Luis Potosi. In the present paper we performed an investigation in 545 dwellings from three counties in the state of Guanajuato, Mexico, from March 2003 to May 2004. The search and capture of triatomines were seasonally performed indoors and outdoors. Entomological indexes were calculated. The risk and no risk relations between triatomine presence and housing construction materials were analyzed. Fourteen triatomines were collected indoors and 151 outdoors. The vectors were collected in houses built with either risky and non-risky materials. Adults go indoors but do not settle there, hence, no relationship was found between the building materials and infestation of houses. Conventional interventions like house improvement or insecticide spraying are not efficient for the control of T. mexicana, because its developmental cycle is accomplished outdoors in the area surrounding the houses.

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Roraima is the northernmost state of Brazil, bordering both Venezuela and Guyana. Appropriate climate and vector conditions for dengue transmission together with its proximity to countries where all four dengue serotypes circulate make this state, particularly the capital Boa Vista, strategically important for dengue surveillance in Brazil. Nonetheless, few studies have addressed the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Boa Vista. In this study, we report temporal and spatial variations in Ae. aegypti population density using ovitraps in two highly populated neighbourhoods; Centro and Tancredo Neves. In three out of six surveys, Ae. aegypti was present in more than 80% of the sites visited. High presence levels of this mosquito suggest ubiquitous human exposure to the vector, at least during part of the year. The highest infestation rates occurred during the peak of the rainy seasons, but a large presence was also observed during the early dry season (although with more variation among years). Spatial distribution of positive houses changed from a sparse and local pattern to a very dense pattern during the dry-wet season transition. These results suggest that the risk of dengue transmission and the potential for the new serotype invasions are high for most of the year.

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As in humans, sub-clinical infection by arboviruses in domestic animals is common; however, its detection only occurs during epizootics and the silent circulation of some arboviruses may remain undetected. The objective of the present paper was to assess the current circulation of arboviruses in the Nhecolândia sub-region of South Pantanal, Brazil. Sera from a total of 135 horses, of which 75 were immunized with bivalent vaccine composed of inactive Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and Western equine encephalitis virus(WEEV) and 60 were unvaccinated, were submitted to thorough viral isolation, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and neutralization tests for Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), EEEV, WEEV and Mayaro virus (MAYV). No virus was isolated and viral nucleic-acid detection by RT-PCR was also negative. Nevertheless, the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies in horses older than seven months was 43.7% for SLEV in equines regardless of vaccine status, and 36.4% for WEEV and 47.7% for EEEV in unvaccinated horses. There was no evidence of MAYV infections. The serologic evidence of circulation of arboviruses responsible for equine and human encephalitis, without recent official reports of clinical infections in the area, suggests that the Nhecolândia sub-region in South Pantanal is an important area for detection of silent activity of arboviruses in Brazil.

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This study was conducted to identify the sandfly fauna and the anthropophilic species in a coffee-growing area of Villanueva, Norte de Santander, Colombia, a focus of American cutaneous leishmaniasis, and to analyse the relationship between the most frequent species and rainfall, relative humidity and temperature, with the aim of contributing to epidemiological surveillance in the area. Sandfly collections were performed fortnightly between February 2006-September 2007 using automatic light traps, Shannon traps, protected human bait and aspiration in resting places. A total of 7,051 sandflies belonging to 12 species were captured. Pintomyia spinicrassa (95.7%) predominated. Pintomyia oresbia and Lutzomyia sp. of Pichinde were found in the state of Norte de Santander for the first time. Pi. spinicrassa, Pintomyia nuneztovari, Micropygomyia venezuelensis, Lutzomyia (Helcocyrtomyia) scorzai and Lu. (Helcocyrtomyia) sp. were captured on the protected human bait. A significant association between Pi. spinicrassa abundance and the total rainfall and the average temperature and humidity 10 days before the collection was observed. The dominance of Pi. spinicrassa, a recognised vector of Leishmania braziliensis, especially during the dry periods, indicates that the risk of parasite transmission may increase.

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Lutzomyia antunesi has been commonly reported in outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in the Orinoquia region of Colombia. The bionomics of this species were studied in the municipality of Villavicencio (Meta, Colombia). Sandflies were captured over the course of one week per month for one year in intradomiciliary, peridomiciliary and extradomiciliary housing areas. The captures were performed from 06:00 pm-06:00 am using CDC light traps and the females were processed for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect Leishmania spp. A total of 22,097 specimens and 19 species were captured of which Lu. antunesi (89%) and Lutzomyia walkeri (5%) were the most abundant. Other species recognised as anthropophilic (Lutzomyia panamensis, Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia flaviscutellata and Lutzomyia fairtigi) were present in very low abundance (< 2%). Natural infection with Leishmania spp was detected using PCR in Lu. antunesi, Lu. panamensis and Lu. flavicutellata, showing infection rates of 1%, 4.8% and 7.5%, respectively. The present paper provides information on various ecological aspects of Lu. antunesi. An analysis of seasonality shows that this species increases in abundance in the hottest months (December, January and February), directly correlating with the maximum temperature and inversely correlating with precipitation. The natural infection rate is associated with the peaks of highest abundance.

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Several viruses have been associated with acute gastroenteritis (AGE), and group A rotavirus (RVA) and nor-ovirus (NoV) are the most prevalent. This study aimed to assess their prevalence among children hospitalised for diarrhoea during a three-year surveillance study. From May 2008-April 2011, overall positivity rates of 21.6% (628/2904) and 35.4% (171/483) were observed for RVA and NoV, respectively. The seasonality observed indicated distinct patterns when both viruses were compared. This finding may explain why hospitalisation for AGE remains constant throughout the year. Continuous AGE monitoring is needed to better assess the patterns of infection.

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The composition and seasonal occurrence of sandflies were investigated in coffee agroecosystems in the Soconusco region of Chiapas, Mexico. Insect sampling was performed on three plantations located at different altitudes: Finca Guadalupe Zajú [1,000 m above sea level (a.s.l.)], Finca Argovia (613 m a.s.l.) and Teotihuacán del Valle (429 m a.s.l.). Sandflies were sampled monthly from August 2007-July 2008 using three sampling methods: Shannon traps, CDC miniature light traps and Disney traps. Sampling was conducted for 3 h during three consecutive nights, beginning at sunset. A total of 4,387 sandflies were collected during the course of the study: 2,718 individuals in Finca Guadalupe Zajú, 605 in Finca Argovia and 1,064 in Teotihuacán del Valle. The Shannon traps captured 94.3% of the total sandflies, while the CDC light traps and Disney traps captured 4.9% and 0.8%, respectively. More females than males were collected at all sites. While the number of sandflies captured was positively correlated with temperature and relative humidity, a negative correlation was observed between sandfly numbers and rainfall. Five species of sandflies were captured: Lutzomyia cruciata , Lutzomyia texana , Lutzomyia ovallesi , Lutzomyia cratifer / undulata and Brumptomyia sp. Lu. cruciata , constituting 98.8% of the total, was the most abundant species. None of the captured sandflies was infected with Leishmaniaspp.

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The objective of this study was to verify if replacing the Injury Severity Score (ISS) by the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) in the original Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) form would improve the survival rate estimation. This retrospective study was performed in a level I trauma center during one year. ROC curve was used to identify the best indicator (TRISS or NTRISS) for survival probability prediction. Participants were 533 victims, with a mean age of 38±16 years. There was predominance of motor vehicle accidents (61.9%). External injuries were more frequent (63.0%), followed by head/neck injuries (55.5%). Survival rate was 76.9%. There is predominance of ISS scores ranging from 9-15 (40.0%), and NISS scores ranging from 16-24 (25.5%). Survival probability equal to or greater than 75.0% was obtained for 83.4% of the victims according to TRISS, and for 78.4% according to NTRISS. The new version (NTRISS) is better than TRISS for survival prediction in trauma patients.

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Objective Analyzing the effect of urinary incontinence as a predictor of the incidence of falls among hospitalized elderly. Method Concurrent cohort study where 221 elderly inpatients were followed from the date of admission until discharge, death or fall. The Kaplan-Meier methods, the incidence density and the Cox regression model were used for the survival analysis and the assessment of the association between the exposure variable and the other variables. Results Urinary incontinence was a strong predictor of falls in the surveyed elderly, and was associated with shorter time until the occurrence of event. Urinary incontinence, concomitant with gait and balance dysfunction and use of antipsychotics was associated with falls. Conclusion Measures to prevent the risk of falls specific to hospitalized elderly patients who have urinary incontinence are necessary.