INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Night admission is an independent risk factor for mortality in trauma patients - a systemic error approach

ABSTRACTObjective:to assess the impact of the shift inlet trauma patients, who underwent surgery, in-hospital mortality.Methods:a retrospective observational cohort study from November 2011 to March 2012, with data collected through electronic medical records. The following variables were statistically analyzed: age, gender, city of origin, marital status, admission to the risk classification (based on the Manchester Protocol), degree of contamination, time / admission round, admission day and hospital outcome.Results:during the study period, 563 patients injured victims underwent surgery, with a mean age of 35.5 years (± 20.7), 422 (75%) were male, with 276 (49.9%) received in the night shift and 205 (36.4%) on weekends. Patients admitted at night and on weekends had higher mortality [19 (6.9%) vs. 6 (2.2%), p=0.014, and 11 (5.4%) vs. 14 (3.9%), p=0.014, respectively]. In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were the night admission (OR 3.15), the red risk classification (OR 4.87), and age (OR 1.17).Conclusion:the admission of night shift and weekend patients was associated with more severe and presented higher mortality rate. Admission to the night shift was an independent factor of surgical mortality in trauma patients, along with the red risk classification and age.

Increased oxidative stress markers may be a promising indicator of risk for primary ovarian insufficiency: a cross-sectional case control study

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate serum levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase (INOS), myeloperoxidase (MPO), total antioxidant status (TAS), and total oxidative status (TOS) in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) and to compare them with healthy fertile women. We also examined the possible risk factors associated with POI.METHODS: This cross-sectional case control study was conducted in Zekai Tahir Burak Women's Health Education and Research Hospital. The study population consisted of 44 women with POI (study group) and 36 healthy fertile women (control group). In all patients, serum levels of INOS, MPO, TAS, and TOS were determined. INOS and MPO levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay whereas colorimetric method was used for evaluating TAS and TOS levels. Age, body mass index (BMI), obstetric history, smoking status, family history, comorbidities, sonographic findings, complete blood count values, C-reactive protein and baseline hormone levels were also analyzed. Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare continuous variables between the groups; categorical data were evaluated by using Pearson χ2 or Fisher exact test, when appropriate. Binary logistic regression method was used to identify risk factors for POI.RESULTS: We found significantly elevated levels of INOS (234.1±749.5 versus133.8±143.0; p=0.005), MPO (3,438.7±1,228.6 versus 2,481.9±1,230.1; p=0.001), and TOS (4.3±1.4 versus 3.6±1.4; p=0.02) in the sera of the study group when compared to the BMI-age matched control group. However, difference in serum levels of TAS were not significant between the 2 groups (1.7±0.2 versus 1.6±0.2; p=0.15). Logistic regression method demonstrated that BMI <25 kg/m2, nulliparity, family history of POI, smoking, and elevated serum levels of INOS, MPO, and TOS were independent risk factors for POI.CONCLUSION: We found an increase in INOS, MPO, and TOS in women with POI. These serum markers may be promising in early diagnosis of POI. Further large-scale studies are required to determine whether oxidative stress markers have a role in diagnosing POI.

Factors associated with the development of renal complications of diabetes mellitus in São Paulo city

The incidence of diabetic end-stage renal failure (ESRF) varies worldwide and risk factors have been demonstrated in several populations. The objective of the present study was to identify possible factors associated with the risk of development of ESRF in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Two groups of diabetic subjects were included in a case-control study: 1) one group was submitted to renal replacement therapies, attending dialysis centers in São Paulo city and 2) the same number of controls without clinical nephropathy (two negative dipstick tests for urine protein), matched for duration of DM, were obtained from an outpatient clinic. A standardized questionnaire was used by a single investigator and additional data were obtained from the medical records of the patients. A total of 290 diabetic patients from 33 dialysis centers were identified, and 266 questionnaires were considered to contain reliable information. Male/female ratios were 1.13 for ESRF and 0.49 for the control group. A higher frequency of men was observed in the ESRF group when compared with controls (53 vs 33%, P<0.00001), although logistic regression analysis did not confirm an association of gender and diabetic nephropathy (DN). Similar proportions of non-white individuals were found for both groups. Patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) were less common than patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM), particularly in the control group (3.4 vs 26.3%, P<0.00001, for controls and ESRF patients, respectively); this type of DM was associated with a higher risk of ESRF than NIDDM, as determined by univariate analysis or logistic regression (OR = 4.1). Hypertension by the time of the DM diagnosis conferred a 1.4-fold higher risk of ESRF (P = 0.04), but no difference was observed concerning the presence of a family history. Association between smoking and alcohol habits and increased risk was observed (OR = 4.5 and 5.9, respectively, P<0.001). A 2.4-fold higher risk of ESRF was demonstrated in patients with multiple hospitalizations due to DM decompensation, which suggested poor metabolic control. Photocoagulation and neuropathy were found to be strongly associated with ESRF but not with macrovascular disease. Data collected in our country reinforce the higher risk attributable to IDDM and the association between hypertension and the progression of DN. Indirect evidence for an association with metabolic control is also suggested

Risk factors for decreased bone density in premenopausal women

Osteoporosis is a major health problem. Little is known about the risk factors in premenopause. Sixty 40-50-year old patients with regular menses were studied cross-sectionally. None of the patients were on drugs known to interfere with bone mass. Patients answered a dietary inquiry and had their bone mineral density (BMD) measured. The Z scores were used for the comparisons. A blood sample was taken for the determination of FSH, SHBG, estradiol, testosterone, calcium and alkaline phosphatase. Calcium and creatinine were measured in 24-h urine. A Z score less than -1 was observed for the lumbar spine of 14 patients (23.3%), and for the femur of 24 patients (40%). Patients with a Z score less than -1 for the lumbar spine were older than patients with a Z score ³-1 (45.7 vs 43.8 years) and presented higher values of alkaline phosphatase (71.1 ± 18.2 vs 57.1 ± 14.3 IU/l). Multiple regression analysis showed that a lower lumbar spine BMD was associated with higher values of alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium ingestion, a smaller body mass index (BMI), less frequent exercising, and older age. The patients with a Z score less than -1 for the femur were shorter than patients with a Z score ³-1 (158.2 vs 161.3 cm). Multiple regression analysis showed that a lower femoral BMD was associated with lower BMI, higher alkaline phosphatase and caffeine intake, and less frequent exercising. A lower than expected BMD was observed in a significant proportion of premenopausal women and was associated with lower calcium intake, relatively lower physical activity and lower BMI. We conclude that the classical risk factors for osteoporosis may be present before ovarian failure, and their effect may be partly independent of estrogen levels.

Assessment of fetal risk associated with exposure to cancer chemotherapy during pregnancy: a multicenter study

The objective of the present study was to evaluate and quantify fetal risks involved in the administration of cancer chemotherapy during gestation, as well as to assess the long-term effects on the exposed children. In this retrospective, cohort study, we reviewed the records of women aged 15 to 45 years with a diagnosis of malignancy or benign tumors with malignant behavior at three reference services in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from 1990 to 1997. All patients with a diagnosis of pregnancy at any time during the course of the disease were selected, regardless of whether or not they received specific medication. Fetal outcomes of 14 pregnancies with chemotherapy exposure were compared to that of 15 control pregnancies in which these drugs were not used. Long-term follow-up of the exposed children was carried out. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the groups. Continuous variables were compared by the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. We found an increased rate of prematurity (6/8 vs 2/10; RR: 3.75; CI: 1.02-13.8; P = 0.03) in the exposed group. There was a trend to an increased fetal death rate (4/12 vs 0/10; P = 0.07) in the group exposed to chemotherapy. No malformations were detected in any child, which can be related to our small sample size as well as to the fact that most exposures occurred after the first trimester of pregnancy. Other larger, controlled studies are needed to establish the actual risk related to cancer chemotherapy during pregnancy.

Risk factors for ovarian failure in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

The aim of the present study was to identify the risk factors for ovarian failure in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. Seventy-one women aged 17 to 45 years with systemic lupus erythematosus were studied. Patients were interviewed and their medical records reviewed. Demographic characteristics, clinical and serologic profiles, and menstrual and obstetric histories were recorded. Disease activity was measured by the systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index. Serum FSH, LH, estradiol, progesterone, TSH, prolactin, and antimicrosomal and antithyroglobulin antibodies were measured. Patients who developed ovarian failure were compared to those who did not. Ovarian failure occurred in 11 patients (15.5%) and nine had premature menopause (11.3%). Cyclophosphamide administration and older patient age were found to be associated with ovarian failure. The cumulative cyclophosphamide dose was significantly higher in patients with ovarian failure than in those without this condition (18.9 vs 9.1 g; P = 0.04). The relative risk for ovarian failure in patients with cumulative cyclophosphamide dose higher than 10 g was 3.2. TSH levels were high in 100% of patients with ovarian failure who had received pulse cyclophosphamide. Ovarian failure, and premature menopause in particular, is common in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus, with the most important risk factors being cyclophosphamide dose and age. Thyroid problems may be another risk factor for ovarian failure in patients with lupus.

The X-X-/E+E+ genotype of the XbaI/EcoRI polymorphisms of the apolipoprotein B gene as a marker of coronary artery disease in a Brazilian sample

Studies that consider polymorphisms within the apolipoprotein B (apo B) gene as risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) have reported conflicting results. The aim of the present study was to search for associations between two DNA RFLPs (XbaI and EcoRI) of the apo B gene and CAD diagnosed by angiography. In the present study we compared 116 Brazilian patients (92 men) with CAD (CAD+) to 78 control patients (26 men) without ischemia or arterial damage (CAD-). The allele frequencies at the XbaI (X) and EcoRI (E) sites did not differ between groups. The genotype distributions of CAD+ and CAD- patients were different (chi²(1) = 6.27, P = 0.012) when assigned to two classes (X-X-/E+E+ and the remaining XbaI/EcoRI genotypes). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that individuals with the X-X-/E+E+ genotype presented a 6.1 higher chance of developing CAD than individuals with the other XbaI/EcoRI genotypes, independently of the other risk factors considered (sex, tobacco consumption, total cholesterol, hypertension, and triglycerides). We conclude that the X-X-/E+E genotype may be in linkage disequilibrium with an unknown variation in the apo B gene or with a variation in another gene that affects the risk of CAD.

Risk factors for alloimmunization by patients with sickle cell disease

Blood transfusion in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) is limited by the development of alloantibodies to erythrocytes. In the present study, the frequency and risk factors for alloimmunization were determined. Transfusion records and medical charts of 828 SCD patients who had been transfused and followed at the Belo Horizonte Blood Center, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil, were retrospectively reviewed. Alloimmunization frequency was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.9 to 11.9%) and 125 alloantibodies were detected, 79% of which belonged to the Rhesus and Kell systems. Female patients developed alloimmunization more frequently (P = 0.03). The median age of the alloimmunized group was 23.3 years, compared to 14.6 years for the non-alloimmunized group (P < 0.0001). Multivariate analyses were applied to the data for 608 hemoglobin (Hb) SS or SC patients whose number of transfusions was recorded accurately. Number of transfusions (P = 0.00006), older age (P = 0.056) and Hb SC (P = 0.02) showed independent statistical associations with alloimmunization. Hb SC patients older than 14 years faced a 2.8-fold higher (95% CI: 1.3 to 6.0) risk of alloimmunization than Hb SS patients. Female Hb SC patients had the highest risk of developing alloantibodies. In patients younger than 14 years, only the number of transfusions was significant. We conclude that an increased risk of alloimmunization was associated with older patients with Hb SC, specially females, even after adjustments were made for the number of transfusions received, the most significant variable.

Incidence, risk factors and prognostic factors of acute renal failure in patients admitted to an intensive care unit

The objective of the present study was to assess the incidence, risk factors and outcome of patients who develop acute renal failure (ARF) in intensive care units. In this prospective observational study, 221 patients with a 48-h minimum stay, 18-year-old minimum age and absence of overt acute or chronic renal failure were included. Exclusion criteria were organ donors and renal transplantation patients. ARF was defined as a creatinine level above 1.5 mg/dL. Statistics were performed using Pearsons' chi2 test, Student t-test, and Wilcoxon test. Multivariate analysis was run using all variables with P < 0.1 in the univariate analysis. ARF developed in 19.0% of the patients, with 76.19% resulting in death. Main risk factors (univariate analysis) were: higher intra-operative hydration and bleeding, higher death risk by APACHE II score, logist organ dysfunction system on the first day, mechanical ventilation, shock due to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis, noradrenaline use, and plasma creatinine and urea levels on admission. Heart rate on admission (OR = 1.023 (1.002-1.044)), male gender (OR = 4.275 (1.340-13642)), shock due to SIRS/sepsis (OR = 8.590 (2.710-27.229)), higher intra-operative hydration (OR = 1.002 (1.000-1004)), and plasma urea on admission (OR = 1.012 (0.980-1044)) remained significant (multivariate analysis). The mortality risk factors (univariate analysis) were shock due to SIRS/sepsis, mechanical ventilation, blood stream infection, potassium and bicarbonate levels. Only potassium levels remained significant (P = 0.037). In conclusion, ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality when it occurs in intensive care unit. There is a very close association with hemodynamic status and multiple organ dysfunction.

Cardiovascular risk factors in a population of Brazilian schoolchildren

Epidemiological and clinical evidence suggests that a judicious diet, regular physical activity and blood pressure (BP) monitoring must start in early childhood to minimize the impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. This study was designed to evaluate BP and metabolic parameters of schoolchildren from Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil, and correlate them with cardiovascular risk factors. The study was conducted on 380 students aged 10-14 years (177 boys, 203 girls) enrolled in public schools. Baseline measurements included body mass index, BP and heart rate. The students were submitted to exercise spirometry on a treadmill. VO2max was obtained from exercise testing to voluntary exhaustion. Fasting serum total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides (TG), and glucose were measured. Nine point nine percent of the boys and 11.7% of the girls were hypertensive or had pre-hypertensive levels. There was no significant correlation between VO2max and TC, LDL-C, or TG in prepubertal children, but a slight negative correlation was detected in post-pubertal boys for HDL-C and TG. In addition, children with hypertension (3.4%) or pre-hypertensive levels (6.6%) also had comorbidity for overweight and blood lipid abnormalities (14% for triglycerides, 44.7% for TC, 25.9% for LDL-C, 52% for low HDL-C). The present study shows for the first time high correlations between prehypertensive blood pressure levels and the cardiovascular risk factors high TC, high LDL-C, low HDL-C in schoolchildren. These are important for the formulation of public health policies and strategies.

Prevalence of the STK15 F31I polymorphism and its relationship with mammographic density

Several studies have identified the single nucleotide polymorphism STK15 F31I as a low-penetrance risk allele for breast cancer, but its prevalence and risk association in the Brazilian population have not been determined. The goal of this study was to identify the frequency of this polymorphism in the Brazilian setting. Considering the high degree of admixture of our population, it is of fundamental importance to validate the results already reported in the literature and also to verify the relationship between this variant and breast cancer risk. A total of 750 women without breast cancer were genotyped using the TaqMan PCR assay for STK15 F31I polymorphism. Clinical information was obtained from review of the medical records and mammographic density from the images obtained using the BI-RADS System. The estimated risk of developing cancer was calculated according to the Gail model. The genotypic frequencies observed in this study were 4.5, 38.7, and 56.6%, respectively, for the STK15 F31I AA, AT and TT genotypes. The AT and AA genotypes were encountered significantly more often in premenopausal women with moderately dense, dense and heterogeneously dense breast tissue (P = 0.023). In addition, the presence of the TT genotype was significantly associated with age at menarche ≥12 years (P = 0.023). High mammographic density, associated with increased breast cancer risk, was encountered more frequently in premenopausal women with the risk genotypes STK15 F31I AA and AT. The genotypic frequencies observed in our Brazilian sample were similar to those described in other predominantly European populations.

Risk factors for pulmonary hypertension in patients receiving maintenance peritoneal dialysis

We investigated the risk factors for pulmonary hypertension (PH) in patients receiving maintenance peritoneal dialysis (MPD). A group of 180 end-stage renal disease patients (124 men and 56 women; mean age: 56.43±8.36) were enrolled in our study, which was conducted between January 2009 and June 2014. All of the patients received MPD treatment in the Dialysis Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Clinical data, laboratory indices, and echocardiographic data from these patients were collected, and follow-ups were scheduled bi-monthly. The incidence and relevant risk factors of PH were analyzed. The differences in measurement data were compared by t-test and enumeration data were compared with the χ2 test. Among the 180 patients receiving MPD, 60 were diagnosed with PH. The remaining 120 were regarded as the non-PH group. Significant differences were observed in the clinical data, laboratory indices, and echocardiographic data between the PH and non-PH patients (all P<0.05). Furthermore, hypertensive nephropathy patients on MPD showed a significantly higher incidence of PH compared with non-hypertensive nephropathy patients (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the proportion of internal arteriovenous fistula, C-reactive protein levels, and ejection fraction were the highest risk factors for PH in patients receiving MPD. Our study shows that there is a high incidence of PH in patients receiving MPD and hypertensive nephropathy patients have an increased susceptibility to PH.

Presence of central nervous system tissues as bovine spongiform encephalopathy specified risk material in Turkish raw meat ball (cig kofte)

Abstract Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) is a virulent disease which may infect by affecting the central nervous system (CNS) tissues in cattle and causes degeneration in nerves. Central nervous system tissues such as brain and spinal cord which are classified as specified risk materials (SRMs) are regarded to be main source of infection. The contamination of the meat with the specific risk materials (SRMs) can occur in phases of slaughter, fragmentation of carcass and processing. This study was conducted in order to investigate the existence of CNS tissues in raw meat ball (cig kofte) which is commonly consumed in the Southeastern Region of Turkey, particularly in Şanlıurfa. For this purpose, 145 samples of raw meat ball were tested. The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits (Ridascreen risk material 10/5, R-biofarm GmbH) which determine glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) as determinant were used. As a result of the analyses, positivity was detected in 21 of totally 145 samples of raw meat ball (14.48%). 6 (4.14%) of the samples gave low level of positivity (≥ 0.1 standard absorbance), 10 (6.90%) gave medium level of positivity (>0.2 standard absorbance) and 5 (3.45%) gave high level of positivity (≥0.5 standard absorbance). As a consequence, meats are contaminated in any phase of both slaughter and meat production even if accidentally. Regarding this matter, necessary measures should be taken and hygiene rules should be applied.

Brazilian, Chinese, and Indian exports: is the regional market really a source of learning?

In some Latin American countries the exporting activity starts at a regional level, with producers only later venturing into more competitive markets. The implicit risk is that a country might never progress from the regional stage to a more global market. This article compares the experiences of Brazil, China and India. It is shown that Brazil relied on the regional market far more intensely than these Asian countries. There were clear gains accruing to China and India for having exploited more sophisticated markets from the very beginning of their export drive.