Guidelines on how to assess the validity of results presented in subgroup analysis of clinical trials

In observational studies, identification of associations within particular subgroups is the usual method of investigation. As an exploratory method, it is the bread and butter of epidemiological research. Nearly everything that has been learned in epidemiology has been derived from the analysis of subgroups. In a randomized clinical trial, the entire purpose is the comparison of the test subjects and the controls, and when there is particular interest in the results of treatment in a certain section of trial participants, a subgroup analysis is performed. These subgroups are examined to see if they are liable to a greater benefit or risk from treatment. Thus, analyzing patient subsets is a natural part of the process of improving therapeutic knowledge through clinical trials. Nevertheless, the reliability of subgroup analysis can often be poor because of problems of multiplicity and limitations in the numbers of patients studied. The naive interpretation of the results of such examinations is a cause of great confusion in the therapeutic literature. We emphasize the need for readers to be aware that inferences based on comparisons between subgroups in randomized clinical trials should be approached more cautiously than those based on the main comparison. That is, subgroup analysis results derived from a sound clinical trial are not necessarily valid; one must not jump to conclusions and accept the validity of subgroup analysis results without an appropriate judgment.

Critical analysis of the allocation policy for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver transplantation is now the standard treatment for end-stage liver disease. Given the shortage of liver donors and the progressively higher number of patients waiting for transplantation, improvements in patient selection and optimization of timing for transplantation are needed. Several solutions have been suggested, including increasing the donor pool; a fair policy for allocation, not permitting variables such as age, gender, and race, or third-party payer status to play any role; and knowledge of the natural history of each liver disease for which transplantation is offered. To observe ethical rules and distributive justice (guarantee to every citizen the same opportunity to get an organ), the "sickest first" policy must be used. Studies have demonstrated that death has no relationship with waiting time, but rather with the severity of liver disease at the time of inclusion. Thus, waiting time is no longer part of the United Network for Organ Sharing distribution criteria. Waiting time only differentiates between equally severely diseased patients. The authors have analyzed the waiting list mortality and 1-year survival for patients of the State of São Paulo, from July 1997 through January 2001. Only the chronological criterion was used. According to "Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo" data, among all waiting list deaths, 82.2% occurred within the first year, and 37.6% within the first 3 months following inclusion. The allocation of livers based on waiting time is neither fair nor ethical, impairs distributive justice and human rights, and does not occur in any other part of the world.

The food spectrum of the cardinal - tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi, Characidae) in its natural habitat

The cardinal tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi) is the most intensively commercialized ornamental fish from the Rio Negro Basin (Amazonas State, Brasil). Analysis of the stomach and gut contents of fish caught in their natural habitats show conclusively that the cardinal is essentially a predator, feeding on the mesofauna that adheres to submerged litter, roots and waterplants. Microcrustacea and chironomid larvae (Diptera) were the most frequently ingested prey, while algae intake was relatively infrequent. It is argued that the relatively small size of the cardinals captured in their natural habitat is due to the annual migrations imposed by the inundation cycles, rather than to resource limitation, because it is known from earlier investigations of similar habitats, that these plant substrates are densely colonized by the aquatic mesofauna. Cardinals raised in captivity are larger and have higher rates of growth.

Geographic pattern of genetic diversity in natural populations of Rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora), in the Central Amazonia

Rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke, Lauraceae) is an Amazonian evergreen tree and a source of the purest linalool, the main component of its essential oil, which is very valuable in the international perfumery market. After decades of over-exploitation it is currently considered as threatened. We evaluated the genetic diversity and its distribution in four populations in Central Amazonia. Thirty-five reliable RAPD markers were generated, of which 32 were polymorphic (91.4%). Variation was higher within the populations (76.5%; p < 0.0001) and geographic distribution contributed to population differentiation (23.4%; p < 0.0001). The Amazon River had a small influence on gene flow (3.3%; p < 0.0001), but we identified evidence of gene flow across the river. There were significant differences in marker frequencies (p < 0.05), in agreement with the low gene flow (Nm = 2.02). The correlation between genetic distance and gene flow was - 0.95 (p = 0.06) and between geographic distance and gene flow was -0.78 (p = 0.12). There was a geographic cline of variability across an East-West axis, influenced as well by the Amazon River, suggesting the river could be a barrier to gene flow. Although threatened, these Rosewood populations retain high diversity, with the highest levels in the Manaus population, which has been protected for over 42 years in a Reserve.

Environmental determinants for natural regeneration of gallery forest at the Cerrado/Amazonia boundaries in Brazil

Natural regeneration and structure and their relationship to environmental variables were studied in three sections of a gallery forest, in Eastern Mato Grosso, Brazil (14º43′S and 52º21′W). The assumption was that natural regeneration is constrained by environmental determinants at all stages of development of the tree community. The objective was to analyse the forest structure and to verify the relationship between species distribution and abundance at different stages of regeneration and environmental variables. In each section, 47 contiguous (10x10m) permanent plots were established to sample trees (gbh≥15cm), following a systematic design. Seedlings (0.01 to 1m height), saplings (1.01 to 2m) and poles (from 2.01m height to gbh<15cm) were sampled in sub-plots of 1x1m, 2x2m and 5x5m, respectively. In each plot, soil properties, gaps projection, bamboos, rocky cover, declivity and depth of ground watertable were determined. The relationships between the environmental variables with trees and seedling communities were assessed by canonical correspondence analysis. In spite of the sections being near to each other, they presented large differences in floristics, structure and site conditions. The forest soil presented a low cation exchange capacity and a high level of Al saturation. The occurrence of bamboos and gaps and the depth of ground watertable limited the occurrence of poles and trees. The high degree of structural heterogeneity for each regeneration category was related primarily to a humidity gradient; but soil fertility (Ca+Mg) was also a determinant of seedling and sapling communities.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

A structured inventory of spiders (Arachnida, Araneae) in natural and artificial forest gaps at Porto Urucu, Western Brazilian Amazonia

A preliminary survey of the spider fauna in natural and artificial forest gap formations at “Porto Urucu”, a petroleum/natural gas production facility in the Urucu river basin, Coari, Amazonas, Brazil is presented. Sampling was conducted both occasionally and using a protocol composed of a suite of techniques: beating trays (32 samples), nocturnal manual samplings (48), sweeping nets (16), Winkler extractors (24), and pitfall traps (120). A total of 4201 spiders, belonging to 43 families and 393 morphospecies, were collected during the dry season, in July, 2003. Excluding the occasional samples, the observed richness was 357 species. In a performance test of seven species richness estimators, the Incidence Based Coverage Estimator (ICE) was the best fit estimator, with 639 estimated species. To evaluate differences in species richness associated with natural and artificial gaps, samples from between the center of the gaps up to 300 meters inside the adjacent forest matrix were compared through the inspection of the confidence intervals of individual-based rarefaction curves for each treatment. The observed species richness was significantly higher in natural gaps combined with adjacent forest than in the artificial gaps combined with adjacent forest. Moreover, a community similarity analysis between the fauna collected under both treatments demonstrated that there were considerable differences in species composition. The significantly higher abundance of Lycosidae in artificial gap forest is explained by the presence of herbaceous vegetation in the gaps themselves. Ctenidae was significantly more abundant in the natural gap forest, probable due to the increase of shelter availability provided by the fallen trees in the gaps themselves. Both families are identified as potential indicators of environmental change related to the establishment or recovery of artificial gaps in the study area.

The mineralogy and chemistry of the German and Portuguese tiles used to face a historic building in the Amazon region and their natural susceptibility to tropical weathering

During the 19th century, the most prominent buildings of the city of Belém were faced entirely with tiles manufactured in Portugal and Germany, which now exhibit distinct degrees of degradation. The Pinho mansion is one of the most important of these buildings and was selected for the investigation of the action of the tropical Amazonian climate on the degradation of the tiles. To achieve this objective, the tiles were mapped for organic and inorganic degradation, and samples were collected for analysis. The minerals were determined by XRD, the chemical composition by classical wet methods and SEM/EDS, and the microorganisms under the microscope. The results show that the German and Portuguese tiles are quite different in their composition. While both ceramic bodies are composed of SiO2 and Al2O3, CaO was found only in the Portuguese tile. The low Na2O and K2O contents indicate the addition of materials to reduce the fusion temperature. SiO2 and PbO are the main constituents of the glaze, with CoO and FeO being added as pigment. The ceramic body of the German tiles is constituted of quartz, mullite, and cristobalite, in contrast with the Portuguese tiles, which are made of quartz, gehlenite, diopside, calcite, and feldspars. The glazes are XRD-amorphous. The chemical and mineralogical differences between the German and Portuguese tiles indicate that they were produced from different raw materials under distinct thermal processes. The most prominent weathering-related modifications are the thin layers (German tiles), oxidation stains, dark stains, the detachment of the tile (Portuguese tiles), loss of the glaze and powdering of the ceramic body (Portuguese tiles) through the establishment of Cyanophyta and Bacillariophyta.. The distinct degradation patterns of the tiles exposed to the tropical Amazon climate are a consequence of their distinct mineralogy and chemistry.

Natural diet and feeding habits of a freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium carcinus: Crustacea, Decapoda) in the estuary of the Amazon River

Macrobrachium carcinus is a Brazilian native prawn with recognized potential for use in aquaculture activities. However, there is little information about the natural diet and feeding habits of this species. The aim of this study was the identification of the diet items of M. carcinus based on the analysis of the stomach contents. Specimens were collected in the Amazon River estuary between January 2009 and January 2010. The stomach analysis was carried out by using the frequency of occurrence (FO), methods of points (MP) and feeding index (FI). It was observed that prawns fed on detritus, animals and plant fragments as the most important food items. Sediment accounted for the main stomach content, accounting for 43.2% by the MP, 44.9% by FI and 100% by the FO. Sexual differences in feeding preferences were not found in this study, and seasonal differences in the frequency of items ingested by M. carcinus were not observed. The results indicated that M. carcinus can be considered omnivorous species, but with an important carnivorous component, similar to that found in other Macrobrachium species.

Risk factors for atherosclerosis in an elderly out patient population in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.

Analysis of the risk factors for allograft vasculopathy in asymptomatic patients after cardiac transplantation

OBJECTIVE: To study the influence of immune and nonimmune risk factors on the development of allograft vasculopathy after cardiac transplantation. METHODS: We studied 39 patients with a mean age of 46±12 years. The following variables were analyzed: weight (kg), body mass index (kg/m²), donor's age and sex, rejection episodes in the first and second years after transplantation, systolic and diastolic blood pressures (mmHg), total cholesterol and fractions (mg/dL), triglycerides (mg/dL), diabetes, and cytomegalovirus infection. The presence of allograft vasculopathy was established through coronary angiography. RESULTS: Allograft vasculopathy was observed in 15 (38%) patients. No statistically significant difference was observed between the two groups in regard to hypertension, cytomegalovirus infection, diabetes, donor's sex and age, rejection episodes in the first and second years after transplantation, and cholesterol levels. We observed a tendency toward higher levels of triglycerides in the group with disease. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed statistically significant differences between the two groups when we analyzed the body mass index (24.53±4.3 versus 28.11±4.6; p=0.019). CONCLUSION: Body mass index was an important marker of allograft vasculopathy in the population studied.

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

The Bambuí health and aging study (BHAS). Prevalence of intermittent claudication in the aged population of the community of Bambuí and its associated factors

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of intermittent claudication in the aged population of Bambuí, Brazil, and to identify the factors associated with this disease. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study of the aged population ( > or = 60 years of age) of Bambuí. Participants were interviewed and examined, after written consent. Intermittent claudication was defined based on a standardized questionnaire. Analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1,742 elderly living in Bambuí, 1,485 (85.2%) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-seven individuals (2.5%) with intermittent claudication were identified: 28 (1.9%) males and 9 (0.6%) females. Their age brackets were: 16 (1.08%) individuals between 60 and 69 years of age, 17 (1.15%) between 70 and 79 years, and 4 (0.27%) > or = 80 years. A significant association between intermittent claudication and the following characteristics was found: male sex (OR=5.1; CI 2.4-11.0), smokers (OR=3.1; CI 1.2-8.5), ex-smokers (OR=3.4; CI 1.3-8.7), and more than 2 hospital admissions in the last 12 months (OR=2.8; CI 1.1-7.2). CONCLUSION: Disease prevalence was similar to that of other countries. The association between intermittent claudication and smoking strengthens the significance of tobacco in peripheral artery disease pathogenesis. The association of intermittent claudication and a higher number of hospital admissions suggests greater morbidity in the elderly affected.

Analysis of Plasma Homocysteine Levels in Patients with Unstable Angina

OBJECTIVE - To determine the prevalence of hyperhomocystinemia in patients with acute ischemic syndrome of the unstable angina type. METHODS - We prospectively studied 46 patients (24 females) with unstable angina and 46 control patients (19 males), paired by sex and age, blinded to the laboratory data. Details of diets, smoking habits, medication used, body mass index, and the presence of hypertension and diabetes were recorded, as were plasma lipid and glucose levels, C-reactive protein, and lipoperoxidation in all participants. Patients with renal disease were excluded. Plasma homocysteine was estimated using high-pressure liquid chromatography. RESULTS - Plasma homocysteine levels were significantly higher in the group of patients with unstable angina (12.7±6.7 µmol/L) than in the control group (8.7±4.4 µmol/L) (p<0.05). Among males, homocystinemia was higher in the group with unstable angina than in the control group, but this difference was not statistically significant (14.1±5.9 µmol/L versus 11.9±4.2 µmol/L). Among females, however, a statistically significant difference was observed between the 2 groups: 11.0±7.4 µmol/L versus 6.4±2.9 µmol/L (p<0.05) in the unstable angina and control groups, respectively. Approximately 24% of the patients had unstable angina at homocysteine levels above 15 µmol/L. CONCLUSION - High homocysteine levels seem to be a relevant prevalent factor in the population with unstable angina, particularly among females.

Intrauterine ductus arteriosus constriction: analysis of a historic cohort of 20 cases

OBJECTIVE: To describe the relative incidence, presentation, and evolvement of fetuses with early ductus constriction. METHODS: Twenty fetal echocardiograms indicating ductus constriction were reviewed in a population of 7000 pregnants. RESULTS: The cases were divided into group A (related to maternal use of cyclooxygenase inhibitors [n=7] and group B (idiopathics [n=13]). Mean gestational age was 32.5±3.1 (27-38) weeks and maternal age was 28.2±8.5 (17-42) years. Mean systolic velocity in the ductus was 2.22±0.34 (1.66-2.81) m/s, diastolic velocity 0.79±0.28 (0.45-1.5) m/s, and pulsatility index 1.33±0.36 (0.52-1.83). Two cases of ductal occlusion were noted. In 65% of the cases, an increase occurred in the right cavities; in 90% of the cases, tricuspid or pulmonary regurgitation, or both, occurred, with functional pulmonary atresia in 1 case. Diastolic velocity was greater in group A (1.13±0.33) than in group B (0.68±0.15) (P=0.008). The other data were similar in the 2 groups. The evolvement was not favorable in 4 patients from group B, including 1 death and 2 cases of persistent pulmonary hypertension. CONCLUSION: The high incidence of idiopathic constriction of the ductus arteriosus suggests that its diagnosis is underestimated and that many cases of persistence of fetal circulation in newborns may be related to constriction of the ductus arteriosus not diagnosed during intrauterine life. Group B had a lower severity but a risk of an unfavorable evolvement, suggesting a distinct alteration.