Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Conceito global: um método de avaliação de competência clínica

Muito se tem feito para desenvolver métodos que avaliem de forma confiável a proficiência em habilidade clínica dos alunos de graduação médica. Há fortes evidências de que a avaliação global pode ser uma alternativa viável e confiável na avaliação de estudantes de graduação no ambiente clínico. Rotineiramente, a competência clínica tem sido avaliada pelos docentes por meio de um conceito subjetivo. Essa nota, dada por um especialista, não é objetiva e está sujeita a vieses. O uso de um instrumento bem delineado, com diversos itens pontuados numa escala, oferece a vantagem de especificar o que deve ser avaliado, auxiliando os avaliadores a distinguir os diferentes níveis do desempenho. Usando este método, os docentes podem expressar sua percepção global dos alunos, de forma mais objetiva, em relação a duas esferas distintas da competência: técnica (contendo itens como história clínica, exame físico, conhecimento médico, julgamento clínico, solução de problemas e hábitos no trabalho) e humanista (incluindo comunicação com pacientes e familiares, respeito, habilidades reflexivas, sensibilidade ao contexto e trabalho em equipe).

Influência dos cursos preparatórios para residência médica em uma avaliação global

INTRODUÇÃO: O desenvolvimento cognitivo é um processo complexo e o mais intenso na formação médica, necessitando ser acompanhado minuciosa e criteriosamente. Várias ferramentas foram criadas com o intuito de acompanhar tal processo, entre elas o teste global (ou de situação) de conhecimento, cuja finalidade é avaliar o desempenho cognitivo durante o curso e o próprio curso, bem como treinar acadêmicos para concursos. Outra forma de treinamento para provas de qualificação, muito usada atualmente, são os Cursos Preparatórios (CP) para residência médica. OBJETIVO: Analisar a influência e eficácia dos CP no ganho cognitivo dos acadêmicos do internato bienal de um curso de Medicina. METODOLOGIA: Estudo transversal, quantitativo, com aplicação de uma prova de situação aos internos que cursam ou não CP. RESULTADOS: Realizaram a prova 127 internos, sendo 63 do primeiro semestre e 64 do terceiro. A média de acerto geral foi de 5,1 ± 1,0 (5,0 ± 0,9 para quintanistas e 5,1 ± 1,2 para sextanistas; p = 0,533). Do total dos internos, 77,2% participavam de CP, sendo menor a proporção dos quintanistas (65,1% vs. 89,1%; p = 0,001). Não se observou diferença estatística no desempenho cognitivo dos internos relacionado à "frequência ou não de CP" (5,1 ± 1,1 vs. 4,8 ± 1,0; p = 0,203). CONCLUSÃO: O teste do tipo global não apresentou diferença estatística significativa no desempenho cognitivo dos estudantes de uma série para outra, não demonstrando no CP fator diferenciador neste tipo de avaliação (testes de múltipla escolha), colocando em dúvida a real influência e efetividade do CP.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

Estimativa da irradiação solar global com partição mensal e sazonal para a região de Cascavel - PR

No presente trabalho, mostram-se equações de estimativa da irradiação solar global (R G), por meio do modelo de Angstrom, com partições sazonal e mensal para a região de Cascavel - PR. Os dados experimentais foram cedidos pelo IAPAR, coletados na sua estação meteorológica localizada na COODETEC/Cascavel - PR, no período de 1983 a 1998. Dos 16 anos de dados, 12 anos foram utilizados para cálculo dos coeficientes (a e b) e quatro anos para a validação das equações. Os coeficientes de determinação encontrados foram superiores a 80% para as duas partições. O mínimo da R G é superestimado e o máximo é subestimado quando comparados com o mínimo e o máximo para dados reais, sendo esses encontrados no solstício de inverno e equinócio de primavera, respectivamente. A variação sazonal e mensal do coeficiente "a" foi menor (0,16 a 0,19 e 0,14 a 0,21) e do coeficiente "b" maior (0,34 a 0,43 e 0,32 a 0,44). As maiores variações dos erros médios diários ocorreram no equinócio de primavera (-19,45% a 27,28%) e as menores no equinócio de outono (-11,32% a 10,61%). O ajuste mais eficaz das equações foi encontrado para a partição mensal.

Comparação do Coeficiente Global de Perdas de Calor para casa de vegetação aquecida usando diferentes técnicas para eficiência energética

O Coeficiente Global de Perdas de Calor (U) permite o equacionamento das necessidades térmicas de uma casa de vegetação climatizada. No presente trabalho, determinou-se esse coeficiente cujo referencial foi uma casa de vegetação localizada em Madri (Espanha), em que foram utilizadas medidas noturnas de temperatura do ar no interior, no exterior, bem como o consumo de energia para aquecimento. As comparações entre as técnicas de aquecimento utilizadas foram: solo radiante e aerotermos combinados com duas técnicas que visavam a promover melhor aproveitamento térmico, ou seja, a utilização de cobertura plástica formando dupla capa ou a utilização de túnel plástico. Os menores coeficientes foram conseguidos para a utilização de solo radiante com túnel e aerotermos com dupla capa com 7,19 W m-2 ºC-1 e 9,11 W m-2 ºC-1, respectivamente; o maior valor dentre os coeficientes nas condições estudadas foi 15,13 W m-2 ºC-1 ao considerar o uso de aerotermos sem utilização de plásticos. Conclui-se, portanto, que os resultados comprovam o melhor rendimento térmico para as técnicas ensaiadas.

Evapotranspiração de referência com base na radiação solar global estimada pelo método de Bristow-Campbell

A quantidade de água a ser aplicada em sistemas de irrigação é normalmente calculada com base na evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) da região. Vários métodos podem ser empregados para o cálculo de ETo, sendo o de Hargreaves um dos mais adotados. Esse método utiliza valores estimados da radiação solar global (Rs) com base na diferença entre as temperaturas máxima (Tmáx) e mínima (Tmín) do ar. Entretanto, a Rs pode ser calculada por outros métodos, como o de Bristow-Campbell, que também se baseia na diferença entre Tmáx e Tmín. No presente trabalho, foram estimados valores diários da ETo pelo método de Hargreaves, em Jales - SP, com e sem o uso da equação de Bristow-Campbell para cálculo de Rs. Esses valores foram comparados aos obtidos pelo método de Penman-Monteith, que é considerado padrão para a estimativa de ETo. As avaliações consideraram os períodos úmido e seco na região. O uso da equação de Bristow-Campbell melhorou o desempenho do método de Hargreaves, em relação ao de Penman-Monteith, sendo que durante o período seco do ano o desempenho foi superior ao do período úmido.

Annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse radiation and fractions in tilted surfaces

It was evaluated the annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse components of incident solar radiation on tilted surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85º, facing north, in Botucatu, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The radiometric fractions were obtained for each component of the radiation in the aforementioned surfaces, through the ratio with the global and top of the atmosphere radiations. Seasonality was evaluated based on monthly averages of daily values. The measures occurred between 04/1998 and 07/2001 at 22.85º; 08/2001 and 02/2003 at 12.85º; and from 03/2003 to 12/2007 at 32.85º, with concomitant measures in the horizontal surface (reference). The levels of global and direct radiation on tilted surfaces were lower in summer and higher in the equinoxes when compared with the horizontal. The diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces was lower in most months, with losses of up to 65%. A trend of increasing differences occurred between horizontal and tilted surfaces with the increase of the angle in all the components and fractions of incident radiation. The annual evolution of rainfall and cloud cover ratio directly affected the atmospheric transmissivity of direct and diffuse components in the region.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

Determination of total accumulated rainfall, global radiation, evapotranspiration and degree-days originated from the ECMWF model to sugar cane crop

The climate variability between the growth and harvesting of sugar cane is very important because it directly affects yield. The MODIS sensor has characteristics like spatial and temporal resolution that can be applied to monitoring of vegetative vigor variability in the land surface and then, temporal profiles generation. Agro meteorological data from ECMWF model are free and easy to access and have a good representation of reality. In this study, we used the period between sugar cane growth and harvest in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from temporal profiles selecting of NDVI behavior. For each period the precipitation, evapotranspiration, global radiation, length (days) and degree-days were accumulated. The periods were presented in a map format on MODIS spatial resolution of 250 meters. The results showed the spatial variability of climate variables and the relationship to the reality presented by official data.

Dry months in the agricultural region of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo-Brazil: an study based on the extreme value theory

The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Effect of a simulated heat wave in thermal and aerial environment broiler-rearing environment

ABSTRACT Global warming increases the occurrence of events such as extreme heat waves. Research on thermal and air conditions affecting broiler-rearing environment are important to evaluate the animal welfare under extreme heat aiming mitigation measures. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of a simulated heat wave, in a climatic chamber, on the thermal and air environment of 42-day-old broilers. One hundred and sixty broilers were housed and reared for 42 days in a climatic chamber; the animals were divided into eight pens. Heat wave simulation was performed on the 42nd day, the period of great impact and data sampling. The analyzed variables were room and litter temperatures, relative humidity, concentrations of oxygen, carbon monoxide and ammonia at each pen. These variables were assessed each two hours, starting at 8 am, simulating a day heating up to 4 pm, when it is reached the maximum temperature. By the results, we concluded that increasing room temperatures promoted a proportional raise in litter temperatures, contributing to ammonia volatilization. In addition, oxygen concentrations decreased with increasing temperatures; and the carbon monoxide was only observed at temperatures above 27.0 °C, relative humidity higher than 88.4% and litter temperatures superior to 30.3 °C.