Posicionamento social e a hipótese da distribuição de renda desconhecida. Brasil: quão pobres, quão ricos e quão desiguais nos percebemos?

Based on the ISSP (1999) survey the aim of the present paper is to provide an empirical description about the perceptions Brazilians have towards their own social positioing in the social scale and towards the country’s income distribution. Throughout this description, the paper gives support for the hypothesis that Brazilians do not recognize the form of the country’s income distribution and its high degree of inequality. Also, we present a brief discussion on the causes and consequences of this knowledge gap.

O que é que o reeleito tem? O retorno: o esboço de uma teoria da reeleição no Brasil

This article compares the determinants of electoral success in two consecutive Brazilian legislative elections, 1998 and 2002. There is a clear difference between both periods that renders the comparison especially interesting. In 1998 the incumbent president was running for reelection whereas in 2002 it was an open seat contest. We hypothesize that in 1998 the proximity of the Federal Deputy with the president and the allocation of federal monies controlled by the Executive Branch played a more significant role in affecting reelection success than in 2002. Hence, if the President is himself running for reelection is an important intervening contextual variable in understanding reelection success of Federal Deputies.

Há evidências de desindustrialização no Brasil?

Are There evidences of deindustrialization in Brazil? This paper aims at analyzing the theoretical concept of deindustrialization, and evaluating if Brazil, following the implementation of economic reforms in the 1990's, has suffered from a " new Dutch disease" . Despite the manufacturing sector declining participation in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the empirical evidence show that the changes in the economy structure since the mid-1980’s to the end of 2005 should not be described as deindustrialization. Since there was not evidence of either generalized reallocation of resources towards industries based on natural resources, or a pattern of export specialization in goods technologically based on natural resources or even on labor, one cannot conclude that Brazil was infected by a " new Dutch disease" .

A globalização no Brasil: responsável ou bode expiatório?

After the sequence of structural adjustments decisions suggested by the IMF, Brazilian economy became wider opened, as the consequences from financial globalization were stronger than those from commercial globalization. Nevertheless, social and economical reality didn't show much improvement. On the contrary, figures on economic increase and inequalities show Brazil behind the average of developing countries. Even if the effects caused by "mondialisation" on weakened economies are well known, globalization can not be taken as the only guilty of weak economic increase, for maintaining the high level of inequalities or for the increase of precariousness. Responsibility must be searched on high inequalities in where operates "mondialisation", on weakness of public policies, on irresponsible way of opening of the economy and in fiscal policy in favor of financial sector. Other countries have reached quite different results, once the have adopted different public policies, which goal was to establish control and reduction upon the negatives effects of globalization.

"School accountability" no Brasil: experiências e dificuldades

This paper analyses the most important experiences with school accountability policy (SA) in Brazil. The analysis suggests that their impacts on the quality of education are not significant due to the fact that: (i) either it does not incorporate a system in which the school is responsible for the students’ performance; (ii) or the incentive schemes are not appropriately designed. Finally, it discusses the main barriers to the adoption of an efficient SA at the national level in Brazil.

Determinantes da recuperação do emprego formal no Brasil: evidências para o período 2001/2005 e hipoteses para uma agenda de pesquisa

Decisive factors affecting the recent increase in formal employment in Brazil. This paper gives a general overview of the evolution of labour market indicators between 1995 and 2005 in Brazil. It shows an overall increase in formal employment rates from 2001 to 2005, as opposite to what had happened from 1995 to 1999. It is argued that such recent trends might indicate the reconfiguration of the labour market in better terms, with potential positive consequences to the finance performance of the Social Security sector. The paper also examines some of the major factors associated with this new trend and their chances to maintain such tendency in the near future. It's important to notice that all of them may be subject to some kind of political management by the State. In other words, we suggest that there are suficient instruments and operative skills in the Brazilian State to make these and others factors work in favour of a more persistent strategy of development with social inclusion through labour.

Alternativa de política educacional para o Brasil: School Accountability

An alternative to the education policy in Brasil: School accountability. This paper examines the school accountability (SA) policies adopted in the US. Significant impacts on the quality of education occur when the SA incorporates a set of sanctions and rewards to schools based on their students' performance. In comparison with other policies, it is also more efficient. Potential problems of adopting the SA (bias toward cognitive ability, gaming and difficulty in measuring the school contribution) can be overcome. The analysis suggests that the SA should be considered as an alternative to improve the quality of education in Brazil.

Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

Os efeitos das políticas industriais para o setor de produtos eletrônicos do Brasil

The effect of industrial policies on the electronic sector in Brazil. Brazil's reputation in vertical industrial policies is dreadful. The electronics industry case is a good example. As measured by the performance of Brazil's exports vis-à-vis that of a group of emerging economies, the result of these policies was a total disaster. Had not been for the inadequacy of Brazil's industrial policies for this sector, exports of manufactures could have been between 36% and 46% higher than they actually were. Brazil's cumulated losses from 1984, when foreign microcomputer firms were prohibited to operate in the country, are estimated to be from 3.6 to 4.6 the country's manufactures export revenue in 2005.

Crescimento econômico e liquidez externa no Brasil após 1970

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.

Persistência inflacionária e curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana para o Brasil

Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that sustainable inflation persistence has theoretical support not only due price indexation, but also because of micro-foundations based on assumptions of Simon's bounded rationality and because of persistent mark-up shocks. the new keynesian phillips curve, estimated for brazil for the period 2000/2008, and the partial coefficients of determination for moving sub-periods of 36 months identifies inflation persistence as the main determinant of inflation, with the capacity gap presenting larger importance only in the end of the sample period. Inflation persistence requires harder monetary policy when neither accommodation is acceptable nor complementary policies in order to reduce it, such as the minimization of indexation mechanisms and control of the market power, are adopted.

O ritmo na queda da desigualdade no Brasil é aceitável?

The rhythm in the fall of inequality in Brazil is acceptable? Evidences of the historical and international context. The following study uses two approaches to answer the question of whether inequality in Brazil is falling fast enough. The first is to compare the variation of the Gini coefficient in Brazil with what was observed in several countries that today belong to the OCDE (United Kingdom, United States, Netherlands, Sweden, France, Norway, and Spain) while these same countries built their social welfare systems during the last century. The second approach is to calculate for how much Brazil must keep up the fall in the Gini coefficient to attain the same levels of inequality of three OCDE countries that can be used as a reference: Mexico, the United States, and Canada. The data indicate that the Gini coefficient in Brazil is falling 0.7 point per year and that this is superior to the rhythm of all the OCDE countries analyzed while they built their welfare systems but Spain, whose Gini fell 0.9 point per year during the 1950s. The time needed to attain various benchmarks in inequality are: 6 years to Mexico, 12 to the United States and 24 to Canadian inequality levels. The general conclusion is that the speed with which inequality is falling is adequate, but the challenge will be to keep inequality falling at the same rate for another two or three decades.