Clinical and echocardiographic predictors of mortality in chagasic cardiomyopathy - systematic review

Diagnosis, prognosis and evaluation of death risk in Chagas cardiomyopathy still constitute a challenge due to the diversity of manifestations, which determine the importance of using echocardiography, tissue Doppler and biomarkers. To evaluate, within a systematic review, clinical and echocardiographic profiles of patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy, which may be related to worse prognosis and major mortality risk. To perform the systematic review, we used Medline (via PubMed), LILACS and SciELO databases to identify 82 articles published from 1991 to 2012, with the following descriptors: echocardiography, mortality and Chagas disease. We selected 31 original articles, involving diagnostic and prognostic methods. The importance of Chagas disease has increased due to its emergence in Europe and United States, but most evidence came from Brazil. Among the predictors of worse prognosis and higher mortality risk are morphological and functional alterations in the left and right ventricles, evaluated by conventional echocardiography and tissue Doppler, as well as the increase in brain natriuretic peptide and troponin I concentrations. Recently, the evaluations of dyssynchrony, dysautonomia, as well as strain, strain rate and myocardial twisting were added to the diagnostic arsenal for the early differentiation of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Developments in imaging and biochemical diagnostic procedures have enabled more detailed cardiac evaluations, which demonstrate the early involvement of both ventricles, allowing a more accurate assessment of the mortality risk in Chagas disease.

Mortality and Embolic Potential of Cardiac Tumors

Background: Cardiac tumors are rare, mostly benign with high embolic potential. Objectives: To correlate the histological type of cardiac masses with their embolic potential, implantation site and long term follow up in patients undergoing surgery. Methods: Between January 1986 and December 2011, we retrospectively analyzed 185 consecutive patients who underwent excision of intracardiac mass (119 females, mean age 48±20 years). In 145 patients, the left atrium was the origin site. 72% were asymptomatic and prior embolization was often observed (19.8%). The diagnosis was established by echocardiography, magnetic resonance and histological examination. Results: Most tumors were located in the left side of the heart. Myxoma was the most common (72.6%), followed by fibromas (6.9%), thrombi (6.4%) and sarcomas (6.4%). Ranging from 0.6cm to 15cm (mean 4.6 ± 2.5cm) 37 (19.8%) patients had prior embolization, stroke 10.2%, coronary 4.8%, peripheral 4.3% 5.4% of hospital death, with a predominance of malignant tumors (40% p < 0.0001). The histological type was a predictor of mortality (rhabdomyomas and sarcomas p = 0.002) and embolic event (sarcoma, lipoma and fibroelastoma p = 0.006), but not recurrence. Tumor size, atrial fibrillation, cavity and valve impairment were not associated with the embolic event. During follow-up (mean 80±63 months), there were 2 deaths (1.1%) and two recurrences 1 and 11 years after the operation, to the same cavity. Conclusion: Most tumors were located in the left side of the heart. The histological type was predictor of death and preoperative embolic event, while the implantation site carries no relation with mortality or to embolic event.

Validation of the Killip-Kimball Classification and Late Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The classification or index of heart failure severity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was proposed by Killip and Kimball aiming at assessing the risk of in-hospital death and the potential benefit of specific management of care provided in Coronary Care Units (CCU) during the decade of 60. Objective: To validate the risk stratification of Killip classification in the long-term mortality and compare the prognostic value in patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) relative to patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI), in the era of reperfusion and modern antithrombotic therapies. Methods: We evaluated 1906 patients with documented AMI and admitted to the CCU, from 1995 to 2011, with a mean follow-up of 05 years to assess total mortality. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were developed for comparison between survival distributions according to Killip class and NSTEMI versus STEMI. Cox proportional regression models were developed to determine the independent association between Killip class and mortality, with sensitivity analyses based on type of AMI. Results: The proportions of deaths and the KM survival distributions were significantly different across Killip class >1 (p <0.001) and with a similar pattern between patients with NSTEMI and STEMI. Cox models identified the Killip classification as a significant, sustained, consistent predictor and independent of relevant covariables (Wald χ2 16.5 [p = 0.001], NSTEMI) and (Wald χ2 11.9 [p = 0.008], STEMI). Conclusion: The Killip and Kimball classification performs relevant prognostic role in mortality at mean follow-up of 05 years post-AMI, with a similar pattern between NSTEMI and STEMI patients.

Relevance of Target-Organ Lesions as Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

Background: Patients with diabetes are in extract higher risk for fatal cardiovascular events. Objective: To evaluate major predictors of mortality in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Methods: A cohort of 323 individuals with type 2 diabetes from several regions of Brazil was followed for a long period. Baseline electrocardiograms, clinical and laboratory data obtained were used to determine hazard ratios (HR) and confidence interval (CI) related to cardiovascular and total mortality. Results: After 9.2 years of follow-up (median), 33 subjects died (17 from cardiovascular causes). Cardiovascular mortality was associated with male gender; smoking; prior myocardial infarction; long QTc interval; left ventricular hypertrophy; and eGFR <60 mL/min. These factors, in addition to obesity, were predictors of total mortality. Cardiovascular mortality was adjusted for age and gender, but remained associated with: smoking (HR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.3-11.8; p = 0.019); prior myocardial infarction (HR = 8.5; 95% CI 1.8-39.9; p = 0.007); eGFR < 60 mL/min (HR = 9.5; 95% CI 2.7-33.7; p = 0.001); long QTc interval (HR = 5.1; 95% CI 1.7-15.2; p = 0.004); and left ventricular hypertrophy (HR = 3.5; 95% CI 1.3-9.7; p = 0.002). Total mortality was associated with obesity (HR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-5.1; p = 0.030); smoking (HR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.0-6.1; p = 0.046); prior myocardial infarction (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.1; p = 0.005), and long QTc interval (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.1; p = 0.017). Conclusions: Biomarkers of simple measurement, particularly those related to target-organ lesions, were predictors of mortality in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

An Equation for the Prediction of Oxygen Consumption in a Brazilian Population

Background: The equations predicting maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max or peak) presently in use in cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) softwares in Brazil have not been adequately validated. These equations are very important for the diagnostic capacity of this method. Objective: Build and validate a Brazilian Equation (BE) for prediction of VO2peak in comparison to the equation cited by Jones (JE) and the Wasserman algorithm (WA). Methods: Treadmill evaluation was performed on 3119 individuals with CPET (breath by breath). The construction group (CG) of the equation consisted of 2495 healthy participants. The other 624 individuals were allocated to the external validation group (EVG). At the BE (derived from a multivariate regression model), age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity level were considered. The same equation was also tested in the EVG. Dispersion graphs and Bland-Altman analyses were built. Results: In the CG, the mean age was 42.6 years, 51.5% were male, the average BMI was 27.2, and the physical activity distribution level was: 51.3% sedentary, 44.4% active and 4.3% athletes. An optimal correlation between the BE and the CPET measured VO2peak was observed (0.807). On the other hand, difference came up between the average VO2peak expected by the JE and WA and the CPET measured VO2peak, as well as the one gotten from the BE (p = 0.001). Conclusion: BE presents VO2peak values close to those directly measured by CPET, while Jones and Wasserman differ significantly from the real VO2peak.

Diabetes Mellitus and Glucose as Predictors of Mortality in Primary Coronary Percutaneous Intervention

Background: Diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose are important risk factors for mortality in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, but their relative and individual role remains on debate. Objective: To analyze the influence of diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose on the mortality of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention. Methods: Prospective cohort study including every ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patient submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention in a tertiary cardiology center from December 2010 to May 2012. We collected clinical, angiographic and laboratory data during hospital stay, and performed a clinical follow-up 30 days after the ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. We adjusted the multivariate analysis of the studied risk factors using the variables from the GRACE score. Results: Among the 740 patients included, reported diabetes mellitus prevalence was 18%. On the univariate analysis, both diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose were predictors of death in 30 days. However, after adjusting for potential confounders in the multivariate analysis, the diabetes mellitus relative risk was no longer significant (relative risk: 2.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.76 - 7.59; p-value: 0.13), whereas admission blood glucose remained and independent predictor of death in 30 days (relative risk: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.02 - 1.09; p-value ≤ 0.01). Conclusion: In ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention, the admission blood glucose was a more accurate and robust independent predictor of death than the previous diagnosis of diabetes. This reinforces the important role of inflammation on the outcomes of this group of patients.

Assessment of Myocardial Infarction by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Long-Term Mortality

Background: Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging provides detailed anatomical information on infarction. However, few studies have investigated the association of these data with mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Objective: To study the association between data regarding infarct size and anatomy, as obtained from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging after acute myocardial infarction, and long-term mortality. Methods: A total of 1959 reports of “infarct size” were identified in 7119 cardiac magnetic resonance imaging studies, of which 420 had clinical and laboratory confirmation of previous myocardial infarction. The variables studied were the classic risk factors – left ventricular ejection fraction, categorized ventricular function, and location of acute myocardial infarction. Infarct size and acute myocardial infarction extent and transmurality were analyzed alone and together, using the variable named “MET-AMI”. The statistical analysis was carried out using the elastic net regularization, with the Cox model and survival trees. Results: The mean age was 62.3 ± 12 years, and 77.3% were males. During the mean follow-up of 6.4 ± 2.9 years, there were 76 deaths (18.1%). Serum creatinine, diabetes mellitus and previous myocardial infarction were independently associated with mortality. Age was the main explanatory factor. The cardiac magnetic resonance imaging variables independently associated with mortality were transmurality of acute myocardial infarction (p = 0.047), ventricular dysfunction (p = 0.0005) and infarcted size (p = 0.0005); the latter was the main explanatory variable for ischemic heart disease death. The MET-AMI variable was the most strongly associated with risk of ischemic heart disease death (HR: 16.04; 95%CI: 2.64-97.5; p = 0.003). Conclusion: The anatomical data of infarction, obtained from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging after acute myocardial infarction, were independently associated with long-term mortality, especially for ischemic heart disease death.

Infant Mortality in Novo Hamburgo: Associated Factors and Cardiovascular Causes

Background: Infant mortality has decreased in Brazil, but remains high as compared to that of other developing countries. In 2010, the Rio Grande do Sul state had the lowest infant mortality rate in Brazil. However, the municipality of Novo Hamburgo had the highest infant mortality rate in the Porto Alegre metropolitan region. Objective: To describe the causes of infant mortality in the municipality of Novo Hamburgo from 2007 to 2010, identifying which causes were related to heart diseases and if they were diagnosed in the prenatal period, and to assess the access to healthcare services. Methods: This study assessed infants of the municipality of Novo Hamburgo, who died, and whose data were collected from the infant death investigation records. Results: Of the 157 deaths in that period, 35.3% were reducible through diagnosis and early treatment, 25% were reducible through partnership with other sectors, 19.2% were non-preventable, 11.5% were reducible by means of appropriate pregnancy monitoring, 5.1% were reducible through appropriate delivery care, and 3.8% were ill defined. The major cause of death related to heart disease (13.4%), which was significantly associated with the variables ‘age at death’, ‘gestational age’ and ‘birth weight’. Regarding access to healthcare services, 60.9% of the pregnant women had a maximum of six prenatal visits. Conclusion: It is mandatory to enhance prenatal care and newborn care at hospitals and basic healthcare units to prevent infant mortality.

Evolution of Cardiovascular Diseases Mortality in the Counties of the State of Rio de Janeiro from 1979 to 2010

Background: Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in Brazil. Objective: To estimate total CVD, cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in adults in the counties of the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ), from 1979 to 2010. Methods: The counties of the SRJ were analysed according to their denominations stablished by the geopolitical structure of 1950, Each new county that have since been created, splitting from their original county, was grouped according to their former origin. Population Data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and data on deaths were obtained from DataSus/MS. Mean CVD, CBVD, and IHD mortality rates were estimated, compensated for deaths from ill-defined causes, and adjusted for age and sex using the direct method for three periods: 1979–1989, 1990–1999, and 2000–2010, Such results were spatially represented in maps. Tables were also constructed showing the mortality rates for each disease and year period. Results: There was a significant reduction in mortality rates across the three disease groups over the the three defined periods in all the county clusters analysed, Despite an initial mortality rate variation among the counties, it was observed a homogenization of such rates at the final period (2000–2010). The drop in CBVD mortality was greater than that in IHD mortality. Conclusion: Mortality due to CVD has steadily decreased in the SRJ in the last three decades. This reduction cannot be explained by greater access to high technology procedures or better control of cardiovascular risk factors as these facts have not occurred or happened in low proportion of cases with the exception of smoking which has decreased significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek explanations for this decrease, which may be related to improvements in the socioeconomic conditions of the population.

One-year Mortality after an Acute Coronary Event and its Clinical Predictors: The ERICO Study

Background:Information about post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survival have been mostly short-term findings or based on specialized, cardiology referral centers.Objectives:To describe one-year case-fatality rates in the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) cohort, and to study baseline characteristics as predictors.Methods:We analyzed data from 964 ERICO participants enrolled from February 2009 to December 2012. We assessed vital status by telephone contact and official death certificate searches. The cause of death was determined according to the official death certificates. We used log-rank tests to compare the probabilities of survival across subgroups. We built crude and adjusted (for age, sex and ACS subtype) Cox regression models to study if the ACS subtype or baseline characteristics were independent predictors of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.Results:We identified 110 deaths in the cohort (case-fatality rate, 12.0%). Age [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.04 per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.75–2.38], non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 3.82 ; 95%CI = 2.21–6.60) or ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 2.59; 95%CI = 1.38–4.89) diagnoses, and diabetes (HR = 1.78; 95%CI = 1.20‑2.63) were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality in the adjusted models. We found similar results for cardiovascular mortality. A previous coronary artery disease diagnosis was also an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.04–2.50), but not for cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion:We found an overall one-year mortality rate of 12.0% in a sample of post-ACS patients in a community, non-specialized hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Age, ACS subtype, and diabetes were independent predictors of poor one‑year survival for overall and cardiovascular-related causes.

Testosterone Deficiency Increases Hospital Readmission and Mortality Rates in Male Patients with Heart Failure

Background:Testosterone deficiency in patients with heart failure (HF) is associated with decreased exercise capacity and mortality; however, its impact on hospital readmission rate is uncertain. Furthermore, the relationship between testosterone deficiency and sympathetic activation is unknown.Objective:We investigated the role of testosterone level on hospital readmission and mortality rates as well as sympathetic nerve activity in patients with HF.Methods:Total testosterone (TT) and free testosterone (FT) were measured in 110 hospitalized male patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction < 45% and New York Heart Association classification IV. The patients were placed into low testosterone (LT; n = 66) and normal testosterone (NT; n = 44) groups. Hypogonadism was defined as TT < 300 ng/dL and FT < 131 pmol/L. Muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) was recorded by microneurography in a subpopulation of 27 patients.Results:Length of hospital stay was longer in the LT group compared to in the NT group (37 ± 4 vs. 25 ± 4 days; p = 0.008). Similarly, the cumulative hazard of readmission within 1 year was greater in the LT group compared to in the NT group (44% vs. 22%, p = 0.001). In the single-predictor analysis, TT (hazard ratio [HR], 2.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.58–4.85; p = 0.02) predicted hospital readmission within 90 days. In addition, TT (HR, 4.65; 95% CI, 2.67–8.10; p = 0.009) and readmission within 90 days (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.23–8.69; p = 0.02) predicted increased mortality. Neurohumoral activation, as estimated by MSNA, was significantly higher in the LT group compared to in the NT group (65 ± 3 vs. 51 ± 4 bursts/100 heart beats; p < 0.001).Conclusion:These results support the concept that LT is an independent risk factor for hospital readmission within 90 days and increased mortality in patients with HF. Furthermore, increased MSNA was observed in patients with LT.

Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

Background:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country.Objective:To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010.Methods:This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA.Results:There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males.Conclusion:The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score in Brazil: Comparison with InsCor and the EuroSCORE

AbstractBackground:Risk scores for cardiac surgery cannot continue to be neglected.Objective:To assess the performance of “Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score” (ACEF Score) to predict mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery, and to compare it to other scores.Methods:A prospective cohort study was carried out with the database of a Brazilian tertiary care center. A total of 2,565 patients submitted to elective surgeries between May 2007 and July 2009 were assessed. For a more detailed analysis, the ACEF Score performance was compared to the InsCor’s and EuroSCORE’s performance through correlation, calibration and discrimination tests.Results:Patients were stratified into mild, moderate and severe for all models. Calibration was inadequate for ACEF Score (p = 0.046) and adequate for InsCor (p = 0.460) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750). As for discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was questionable for the ACEF Score (0.625) and adequate for InsCor (0.744) and EuroSCORE (0.763).Conclusion:Although simple to use and practical, the ACEF Score, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, was not accurate for predicting mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery in a Brazilian tertiary care center. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2015; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0)

Hemorheological and Glycemic Parameters and HDL Cholesterol for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Events

Abstract Background: Hemorheological and glycemic parameters and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol are used as biomarkers of atherosclerosis and thrombosis. Objective: To investigate the association and clinical relevance of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen, fasting glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and HDL cholesterol in the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in an outpatient population. Methods: 708 stable patients who visited the outpatient department were enrolled and followed for a mean period of 28.5 months. Patients were divided into two groups, patients without MACE and patients with MACE, which included cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction, newly diagnosed CHD, and cerebral vascular accident. We compared hemorheological and glycemic parameters and lipid profiles between the groups. Results: Patients with MACE had significantly higher ESR, fibrinogen, fasting glucose, and HbA1c, while lower HDL cholesterol compared with patients without MACE. High ESR and fibrinogen and low HDL cholesterol significantly increased the risk of MACE in multivariate regression analysis. In patients with MACE, high fibrinogen and HbA1c levels increased the risk of multivessel CHD. Furthermore, ESR and fibrinogen were significantly positively correlated with HbA1c and negatively correlated with HDL cholesterol, however not correlated with fasting glucose. Conclusion: Hemorheological abnormalities, poor glycemic control, and low HDL cholesterol are correlated with each other and could serve as simple and useful surrogate markers and predictors for MACE and CHD in outpatients.