84 resultados para Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve
Resumo:
OBJETIVO: Avaliar peso de nascimento e os escores como preditores de mortalidade neonatal em unidade de terapia intensiva neonatal, comparando os seus resultados. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 494 recém-nascidos admitidos em uma unidade de terapia intensiva neonatal (UTIN) de um hospital geral de Porto Alegre, RS, logo após o nascimento, entre março de 1997 e junho de 1998. Foram avaliados o peso de nascimento e os escores considerando a variável óbito durante a internação na UTI. Os critérios de exclusão foram: alta ou óbito da UTIN com menos de 24 horas de internação, recém-nascidos cuja internação não ocorreu logo após o nascimento, protocolo de estudo incompleto e malformações congênitas incompatíveis com a vida. Para avaliação do CRIB (Clinical Risk Index for Babies) foram considerados somente os pacientes com peso de nascimento inferior a 1.500 g. Foram calculadas as curvas ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve) para SNAP (Score for Neonatal Acute), SNAP-PE (Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension), SNAP II, SNAP-PE II, CRIB e peso de nascimento. RESULTADOS: Dos 494 pacientes, 44 faleceram (8,9% de mortalidade). Dos 102 recém-nascidos com peso de até 1.500 g, 32 (31,3%) faleceram. As áreas abaixo da curva ROC variaram de 0,81 a 0,94. Todos os escores avaliados mostraram áreas abaixo da curva ROC sem diferenças estatisticamente significativas. Os escores de risco de mortalidade estudados apresentaram um melhor desempenho que o peso de nascimento, especialmente em recém-nascidos com peso de nascimento igual ou menor que 1.500 g. CONCLUSÕES: Todos os escores de mortalidade neonatal apresentaram melhor desempenho e foram superiores ao peso de nascimento como medidores de risco de óbito hospitalar para recém-nascidos internados em UTIN.
Resumo:
AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.
Resumo:
Studies testing the High Energy Moisture Characteristic (HEMC) technique in tropical soils are still incipient. By this method, the effects of different management systems can be evaluated. This study investigated the aggregation state of an Oxisol under coffee with Brachiaria between crop rows and surface-applied gypsum rates using HEMC. Soil in an experimental area in the Upper São Francisco region, Minas Gerais, was studied at depths of 0.05 and 0.20 m in coffee rows. The treatments consisted of 0, 7, and 28 Mg ha-1 of agricultural gypsum rates distributed on the soil surface of the coffee rows, between which Brachiaria was grown and periodically cut, and compared with a treatment without Brachiaria between coffee rows and no gypsum application. To determine the aggregation state using the HEMC method, soil aggregates were placed in a Büchner funnel (500 mL) and wetted using a peristaltic pump with a volumetric syringe. The wetting was applied increasingly at two pre-set speeds: slow (2 mm h-1) and fast (100 mm h-1). Once saturated, the aggregates were exposed to a gradually increasing tension by the displacement of a water column (varying from 0 to 30 cm) to obtain the moisture retention curve [M = f (Ψ) ], underlying the calculation of the stability parameters: modal suction, volume of drainable pores (VDP), stability index (slow and fast), VDP ratio, and stability ratio. The HEMC method conferred sensitivity in quantifying the aggregate stability parameters, and independent of whether gypsum was used, the soil managed with Brachiaria between the coffee rows, with regular cuts discharged in the crop row direction, exhibited a decreased susceptibility to disaggregation.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: The rapid growth of the rubella virus in RC-IAL² with development of cytopathic effect, in response to rubella virus infection, is described. For purposes of comparison, the rubella virus RA-27/3 strain was titered simultaneously in the RC-IAL, Vero, SIRC and RK13 cell lines. METHODS: Rubella virus RA-27/3 strain are inoculated in the RC-IAL cell line (rabbit Kidney, Institute Adolfo Lutz). Plates containing 1.5x10(5) cells/ml of RC-IAL line were inoculated with 0.1ml s RA-27/3 strain virus containing 1x 10(4)TCID50/0.1ml. A 25% cytopathic effect was observed after 48 hours and 100% after 96 hours. The results obtained were compared to those observed with the SIRC, Vero and RK13 cell lines. Rubella virus was detected by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: With the results, it was possible to conclude that the RC-IAL cell line is a very good substrate for culturing rubella virus. The cells inoculated with rubella virus were examined by phase contrast microscopy and showed the characteristic rounded, bipolar and multipolar cells. The CPE in RC-IAL was observed in the first 48 hours and the curve of the increased infectivity was practically the same as observed in other cell lines. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are important since this is one the few cell lines described in the literature with a cytopathic effect. So it can be used for antigen preparation and serological testing for the diagnosis of specific rubella antibodies.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To validate a new symphysis-fundal curve for screening fetal growth deviations and to compare its performance with the standard curve adopted by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: Observational study including a total of 753 low-risk pregnant women with gestational age above 27 weeks between March to October 2006 in the city of João Pessoa, Northeastern Brazil. Symphisys-fundal was measured using a standard technique recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Estimated fetal weight assessed through ultrasound using the Brazilian fetal weight chart for gestational age was the gold standard. A subsample of 122 women with neonatal weight measurements was taken up to seven days after estimated fetal weight measurements and symphisys-fundal classification was compared with Lubchenco growth reference curve as gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The McNemar χ2 test was used for comparing sensitivity of both symphisys-fundal curves studied. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was 51.6% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve was significantly lower (12.5%). In the subsample using neonatal weight as gold standard, the sensitivity of the new reference curve was 85.7% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health was 42.9% for detecting small for gestational age. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic performance of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was significantly higher than that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the level of HIV/AIDS knowledge among men who have sex with men in Brazil using the latent trait model estimated by Item Response Theory. METHODS Multicenter, cross-sectional study, carried out in ten Brazilian cities between 2008 and 2009. Adult men who have sex with men were recruited (n = 3,746) through Respondent Driven Sampling. HIV/AIDS knowledge was ascertained through ten statements by face-to-face interview and latent scores were obtained through two-parameter logistic modeling (difficulty and discrimination) using Item Response Theory. Differential item functioning was used to examine each item characteristic curve by age and schooling. RESULTS Overall, the HIV/AIDS knowledge scores using Item Response Theory did not exceed 6.0 (scale 0-10), with mean and median values of 5.0 (SD = 0.9) and 5.3, respectively, with 40.7% of the sample with knowledge levels below the average. Some beliefs still exist in this population regarding the transmission of the virus by insect bites, by using public restrooms, and by sharing utensils during meals. With regard to the difficulty and discrimination parameters, eight items were located below the mean of the scale and were considered very easy, and four items presented very low discrimination parameter (< 0.34). The absence of difficult items contributed to the inaccuracy of the measurement of knowledge among those with median level and above. CONCLUSIONS Item Response Theory analysis, which focuses on the individual properties of each item, allows measures to be obtained that do not vary or depend on the questionnaire, which provides better ascertainment and accuracy of knowledge scores. Valid and reliable scales are essential for monitoring HIV/AIDS knowledge among the men who have sex with men population over time and in different geographic regions, and this psychometric model brings this advantage.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the initial clinical experience with the Helex septal occluder for percutaneous closure of atrial septal defects. METHODS: Ten patients underwent the procedure, 7 patients with ostium secundum atrial septal defects (ASD) with hemodynamic repercussions and 3 patients with pervious foramen ovale (PFO) and a history of stroke. Mean age was 33.8 years and mean weight was 55.4 kg. Mean diameter by transesophageal echocardiography and mean stretched ASD diameter were 11.33 ± 3.3mm, and 15.2 ± 3.8mm, respectively. The Qp/Qs ratio was 1.9 ± 0.3 in patients with ASD. RESULTS: Eleven occluders were placed because a patient with 2 holes needed 2 devices. It was necessary to retrieve and replace 4 devices in 3 patients. We observed immediate residual shunt (< 2mm) in 4 patients with ASD, and in those with patent foramen ovale total occlusion of the defect occurred. No complications were noted, and all patients were discharged on the following day. After 1 month, 2 patients with ASD experienced trivial residual shunts (1mm). In 1 patient, we observed mild prolapse in the proximal disk in the right atrium, without consequences. CONCLUSION: The Helex septal occluder was safe and effective for occluding small to moderate atrial septal defects. Because the implantation technique is demanding, it requires specific training of the operator. Even so, small technical failures may occur in the beginning of the learning curve, but they do not involve patient safety.
Resumo:
FUNDAMENTO: A hipertrofia do ventrículo esquerdo (HVE) detectada pela eletrocardiografia é um forte preditor de morbidade e mortalidade cardiovasculares. OBJETIVO: Analisar o desempenho dos critérios de Sokolow-Lyon-Rappaport (SLR) e de Cornell, em amostra populacional, em relação ao diagnóstico de HVE à ecocardiografia. MÉTODOS: Entre os 682 participantes da segunda fase do Projeto MONICA-OMS/Vitória, 641 foram avaliados por meio de eletrocardiografia e ecocardiografia. O subgrupo de indivíduos saudáveis (n = 269) foi usado para gerar valores de referência da massa do ventrículo esquerdo (MVE). As sensibilidades e especificidades dos critérios eletrocardiográficos foram determinadas pela curva ROC (receptor-operator characteristics) em relação ao diagnóstico de HVE definido pelo critério ecocardiográfico interno (MVE > 48 g/m2,7 e 46 g/m2,7 para homens e mulheres, respectivamente). RESULTADOS: A prevalência de HVE à ecocardiografia foi de 23,7% na amostra global, em que havia 49% de hipertensos. O critério de Cornell apresentou melhor associação com a MVE estimada pela ecocardiografia (r = 0,37; p < 0,01) que o critério de SLR (r = 0,19), além de melhor desempenho na análise da área sob a curva ROC. Os novos pontos de corte para o critério de Cornell definidos internamente (2,3 mV para homens e 1,9 mV para mulheres) apresentaram combinação aceitável de sensibilidade para homens e mulheres (22,5% e 28%, respectivamente), com alta especificidade (95%). CONCLUSÃO: Os critérios clássicos de SLR e Cornell apresentaram baixo desempenho em relação à HVE definida pela ecocardiografia. Entretanto, a acurácia pode ser melhorada, utilizando-se os critérios de Cornell definidos neste estudo.
Resumo:
FUNDAMENTO: A previsão de gravidade ou complexidade da doença arterial coronariana (DAC) é valiosa devido ao aumento do risco de eventos cardiovasculares. Embora a associação entre o escore do cálcio arterial coronariano (CAC), e a gravidade da DAC pelo escore Gensini não tenha sido utilizado, já foi anteriormente demonstrado. Não há informações sobre a associação entre o escore do CAC total e a complexidade da DAC. OBJETIVOS: Investigar a associação entre a gravidade ou complexidade da doença arterial coronariana (DAC), avaliada pelo escore Gensini e SYNTAX (SS), respectivamente, e o escore do cálcio arterial coronariano (CAC), um método não invasivo para avaliação de DAC em pacientes sintomáticos com DAC significativa. MÉTODOS: Duzentos e quatorze pacientes foram incluídos. A pontuação total do CAC foi obtido antes da angiografia. A severidade e complexidade da DAC foram avaliadas pelo escore Gensini e SS, respectivamente. Foram analisadas as associações entre parâmetros clínicos e angiográficos e o escore total do CAC. RESULTADOS: A mediana do escore total do CAC foi de 192 (23,0-729,8), e correlacionou-se positivamente com ambos os escores Gensini (r: 0,299, p < 0,001) e ES (r: 0,577, p < 0,001). Na análise multivariada associou-se independentemente com a idade (ß: 0,154, p: 0,027), sexo masculino (ß: 0,126, p: 0,035) e ES (ß: 0,481, p < 0,001). A análise da curva ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) revelou um valor de corte > 809 para ES > 32 (tercil de SS alto). CONCLUSÃO: Em pacientes sintomáticos com DAC significativa, o escore total de CAC foi independentemente associado com SS e os pacientes com SS > 32 podem ser detectados através de escore Agatston alto.