81 resultados para MULTIVARIATE GARCH


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The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.

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SUMMARY American visceral leishmaniasis is a vector-borne zoonosis in expansion in Brazil. Dogs are the main urban reservoir. Departing from a case of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in Jacaré, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro State, an epidemiological canine and entomological study was performed to assess the extension of the disease at the location. Sample was collected around the case and the dogs identified by serological tests (rapid double platform immunochromatographic exams, immunoenzymatic assay/ELISA, indirect immunofluorescence/IFAT). The parasitological diagnosis was performed in animals positive in at least one of these tests. The entomological study was carried out by using light traps and manual collection. The associations between canine variables and outcome (ELISA and IFAT reagents) were assessed by the chi-square test and adjusted by multivariate logistic regression for those associations with p < 0.1 in the bivariate analysis. Seventeen cases of CVL were detected among 110 evaluated dogs (prevalence of 15.5%). Presence of ectoparasites (OR 6.5; 95% CI 1.1-37.4), animals with clinical signs (OR 9.5; 95% CI 1.2-76.6), and previous cases of CVL in the same house (OR 17.9; 95% CI 2.2-147.1) were associated with the outcome. Lutzomyia longipalpiswas not detected. Our results are indicative of an ongoing transmission in the area.

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Although treatment of visceral leishmaniasis with pentavalent antimony is usually successful, some patients require second-line drug therapy, most commonly with amphotericin B. To identify the clinical characteristics that predict an inadequate response to pentavalent antimony, a case-control study was undertaken in Teresina, Piaui, Brazil. Over a two-year period, there were 19 cases of VL in which the staff physicians of a hospital prescribed second-line therapy with amphotericin B after determining that treatment with pentavalent antimony had failed. The control group consisted of 97 patients that were successfully treated with pentavalent antimony. A chart review using univariate and multivariate analysis was performed. The cure rate was 90% with amphotericin B. The odds ratio for the prescription of amphotericin B was 10.2 for children less than one year old, compared with individuals aged over 10 years. Patients who presented coinfection had an OR of 7.1 while those on antibiotics had an OR of 2.8. These data support either undertaking a longer course of therapy with pentavalent antimony for children or using amphotericin B as a first-line agent for children and individuals with coinfections. It also suggests that chemoprophylaxis directed toward bacterial coinfection in small children with VL may be indicated.

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In order to estimate the incidence of and risk factors for developing tuberculosis, the clinical charts of a retrospective cohort of 281 HIV-positive adults, who were notified to the AIDS Program of the Health Department of Brasilia in 1998, were reviewed in 2003. All the patients were treatment-naive regarding antiretroviral therapy at the time of inclusion in the cohort. Twenty-nine patients were identified as having tuberculosis at the start of the study. Thirteen incident tuberculosis cases were identified during the 60 months of follow-up, with an incidence density rate of 1.24/100 person-years. Tuberculosis incidence was highest among patients with baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl who were not using antiretroviral therapy (incidence = 5.47; 95% CI = 2.73 to 10.94). Multivariate analysis showed that baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 5.09; 95% CI = 1.27 to 20.37; p = 0.02) and non-use of antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 12.17; 95% CI = 2.6 to 56.90; p = 0.001) were independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis.

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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has quite high prevalence in the prison system, reaching rates of up to 40%. This survey aimed to estimate the prevalence of HCV infection and evaluate risk factors for this exposure among male inmates at the Ribeirão Preto Prison, State of São Paulo, Brazil, between May and August 2003. A total of 333 participants were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire and underwent immunoenzymatic assaying to investigate anti-HCV. The prevalence of HCV infection among the inmates was 8.7% (95% CI: 5.7-11.7). The participants'mean age was 30.1 years, and the prevalence was predominantly among individuals over 30 years of age. Multivariate analysis showed that the variables that were independently associated with HCV infection were age > 30 years, tattooing, history of previous hepatitis, previous injection drug use and previous needle-sharing.

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INTRODUCTION: Discrepancy between the intensity of pulmonary congestion and the grade of cardiomegaly seems to be a common finding of Chagas cardiomyopathy, in spite of significant systolic dysfunction of the left ventricle. Its mechanism has not been established. The aim of this study was to investigate pulmonary congestion and to analyze if it correlated with Doppler echocardiographic parameters in patients with Chagas dilated cardiomyopathy. METHODS: Fifty-five patients with positive serology tests for Trypanosoma cruzi and Chagas dilated cardiomyopathy were studied. Chest x-rays, Doppler echocardiogram and plasmatic brain natriuretic peptide levels were obtained in all patients. The degree of pulmonary venous vessels changes on chest x-ray was graded using a pulmonary congestion score, and then compared to Doppler echocardiographic parameters. RESULTS: Mean age was 48.5 ± 11.2 years and 29% were women. The majority (95%) of patients were in NYHA functional class I and II. Mild pulmonary congestion by chest x-ray was found in 80% of the patients. In a multivariate analysis, left ventricular ejection fraction, right ventricular TEI index and the color M-mode velocity correlated with the degree of pulmonary congestion. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary venous changes on chest x-rays are frequent, but usually mild in patients with Chagas dilated cardiomyopathy. The degree of pulmonary congestion correlates with Doppler echocardiographic left and right ventricular dysfunction and with color M-mode velocity.