Afinidades eletivas e pensamento econômico: 1870-1914

O artigo busca mostrar a aplicabilidade do conceito de "afinidades eletivas" para tratar das relações entre o pensamento econômico, a literatura e a filosofia. Em particular destaca-se o pensamento institucionalista, a escola histórica alemã e o pensamento neoclássico

Innovation, competition and financial vulnerability in economic development

The financial sector has been viewed traditionally as either providing the "oil" for the "wheels of commerce" or as a parasite on the real sector of the economy where real productivity gains provide for increasing real wages and per capita incomes. The present paper takes a different route and attempts to an analysis of financial institutions on a par with the production sector of the economy. It also develops a link which amalgamates "the knowledge-based" perspective on firms' operations with Schumpeterian financial leverage to exploit productivity enhancing innovations, and Minsky's tendency towards financial fragility. The analysis also leads to some policy recommendations concerning financial regulation, risk management and financial institution's building.

A volta de Ulisses: anotações sobre a lógica de planos e compromissos

This paper criticizes the conventional theory of choice for being grounded on a minimal set of rationality axioms. We claim that this theory does not take due account of the fact that agents are driven by motives other than the pursuit of material self-interest. Our departure point is logic of commitments and planned action, which helps us to identify some puzzles in the conventional theory of choice. As a way out, we discuss the Kantian perspective and the notions of metapreference and metaranking. We then build a model of choice which points to the possibility of a systematic treatment of higher order preferences and incommensurable objectives.

Joblessness

The paper is divided into three parts, and a summary at the end. Part one explains how policies conditioned by historical circumstances moved away from the objective of high employment. Part two deals with the theoretical controversies in support or against particular policies. Part three sets out the basics in theory needed for a high employment policy. The paper concludes with a summary suggestion of some operational steps and observations.

The impact on advanced economies of north-south trade in manufacturing and services

Many types of production are being transferred from the rich economies of the North to the poorer economies of the South. Such changes began in manufacturing but are now spreading to services. This paper provides estimates of their past and future impact on employment in the North. About 5 million manufacturing jobs have been lost over the past decade because of trade with low-wage economies. A similar number of service jobs may be lost to low-wage economies over the next decade. Although small compared to total employment, such losses may seriously harm certain localities or types of worker.

Investimento direto externo, acumulação de capital produtivo e distribuição de renda: uma abordagem pós-keynesiana

It is developed a macrodynamic model in the post-keynesian tradition of political economy of the productive capital accumulation and income distribution to analyze some of the impacts of the (flow of) foreign direct investment and the (stock of) foreign productive capital on capital accumulation, economic growth and functional income distribution in a stylized economy. Alongside a usual demand effect, the impacts of such an internationalization of local capital through labor productivity and market concentration are taken into account as well.

Inflation bias: an appraisal

This short paper offers a brief appraisal of the conventional inflation bias and Cukierman's new inflation bias. It may also be seen that a lack of equilibrium in the balance of payments represents another reason for the emergence of the inflationary bias in an economy.

Regimes cambiais: um modelo alternativo para o Brasil

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, many frameworks of exchange rate have been proposed. The aim of this paper is to propose an alternative rule of exchange rate and evaluate the case for Brazil. The analysis of the Brazilian case made necessary the evaluation of auxiliary instruments for its implementation. The paper proposes the use of capital controls or scape clauses.

Estrutura de propriedade e de controle das empresas de capital aberto no Brasil

This paper has as its main objective to measure the magnitude of deviations between control rights and cash-flow rights for the ultimate shareholder with the largest voting rights of limited liability companies in Brazil. Furthermore, it pinpoints how these discrepancies are generated, evaluating the relative importance of the issuance of preferred stocks with no voting rights, pyramidal arrangements of ownership, and cross-shareholdings. The data set embraces 602 companies that in 2001 complied with the mandatory requirement of filing to the CVM.

Uma interpretação das causas da desaceleração econômica do Brasil

The paper aims at explaining why Brazil's GDP growth plunged after 1980. Brazil's GDP grew at 7% yearly from 1940 to 1980 but at only 2.5% per year since then. Increases in the relative price of investment that reduced the purchasing power of savings, associated to declines in the productivity of capital, seem to have been the most important factors behind the observed loss of dynamism. The tentative conclusion is that inward-oriented economic policies since the 1970s and, perhaps, even as early as the 1950s, had negative long-run growth implications that were aggravated by populist policies in the early years of the post-1984 redemocratization.

A substituição de importações no Brasil entre 1995 e 2000

This work estimates the import substitution process in Brazilian industrial sectors in a recent period and evaluates whether it is occurring naturally or is in part induced by some kind of external commercial policy. An index to measure import substitution was calculated for forty nine sectors of industry. A regression analysis with this index against effective tariffs and real effective exchange rate, during the period 1995-2000, shows that these variables (effective tariffs and real effective exchange rates) did affect the substitution index. From 1999 on, the influence of the exchange rate over the import substitution index was greater than the influence of the effective tariff, suggesting that the process of import substitution post the Brazilian currency depreciation occurred in 1999 contains elements that characterizes it as a "natural" process.

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.